Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Cowboys vs. Eagles

Oh, look, another NFC East prime-time game. Yay.

The Eagles come in atop the division thanks to their impressive 2-4-1 record, which is only a half-game ahead of the 2-5 Cowboys and Football Team, while the last place Giants are closely behind at 1-6. Despite having the same number of wins, the outlooks for the Eagles and Cowboys couldn't be any more different, as Philadelphia is getting a number of impact players back from injuries while Dallas will be using their third-string quarterback due to the season-ending ankle injury to Dak Prescott and a concussion for backup Andy Dalton.

As a result, the Eagles are 10.5-point home favorites in a game with a 43.0-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook, and fantasy players will certainly be more interested in finding different ways to stack the Eagles, which obviously leaves plenty of Cowboys combinations for contrarian players.

QUARTERBACKS

Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz ($11,800 DK, $16,000 FD) is the most expensive player on both sites, and he came into the week 13th in passing yards (1,760) and tied for 18th in passing touchdowns (10) while his 6.0 YPA is tied for the third-lowest among all quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts. Additionally, he co-leads the NFL with 10 interceptions and 28 sacks taken, and only two quarterbacks have fumbled more. Again, this is the most expensive player on DraftKings and FanDuel.

I guess it's unfair to leave out that only Kyler Murray has scored more rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks (eight to five), but it's not like Wentz picks up a lot of rushing yards to help offset his poor passing numbers, as his 185 rushing yards are the eighth-most in the league among QBs. The positive is that he's scored a rushing touchdown in five of his last six games, and he's thrown multiple touchdowns passes in each of his last three, including last week when he had a season-high 259 passing yards against the Giants on a season-high 8.3 YPA. Additionally, he's now facing a Cowboys defense that's allowed multiple touchdown passes in five of seven games, only holding Jared Goff and Daniel Jones from getting there. They've been somewhat better recently in terms of yardage, holding quarterbacks to under 225 yards in four straight games, including under 200 in three, but there's still plenty to like with Wentz. If there's a hesitation it's that the Eagles get ahead quickly and don't have to throw much, but with a number of receivers coming back from injury, maybe they keep throwing to get them back into a rhythm. 

With Prescott and Dalton out, seventh-round rookie Ben DiNucci ($8,600 DK, $13,500 FD) will be under center for the Cowboys. DiNucci began his college career at Pittsburgh before transferring to James Madison because someone named Kenny Pickett beat him out for the starting job, but he was a success at JMU, helping them reach the FCS title game as a senior. I can't speak to his actual pro prospects, but it's a bit interesting that he rushed for 569 yards in his final collegiate season, including five games with more than 50. If anything, maybe he can make some things happen with his legs against the Eagles because it's tough to get overly excited about his passing potential even with multiple very-good-to-great receivers. The Eagles come in having allowed fewer than 240 passing yards in three straight games, including fewer than 190 in their past two, but the three quarterbacks against them each accounted for multiple touchdowns, so it's not the most difficult of matchups for an NFL starting debut.

Wentz will certainly be popular because of his price, and the fact that he spreads his targets around makes it tough to focus on one of his receivers for a captain/MVP. It's tough to see DiNucci being on a ton of rosters, and he's surely to be a low captain/MVP despite the potential game script that he'll have to start slinging it because the Cowboys could be losing by multiple scores.

RUNNING BACKS

The running back situation is a bit interesting in that both starters are basically three-down players, but one is a backup and the other has been one of the biggest non-injury disappointments of the season. Ezekiel Elliott ($10,800 DK, $15,000 FD) dominates the backfield touches for the Cowboys, but injuries to the offensive line plus what feels like every game having to play catch-up, and he's only rushed for more than 55 yards once in the past six games, and he had only 12 carries in three of his last four. He occasionally makes up for it in the passing game, catching eight, one, eight and one targets in the last four games, respectively, and while you could make the argument that he should be heavily used in this game because the Cowboys won't want to rely on DiNucci's arm that much, that's been the case the past few games with Dalton and the results have been brutal. Sure, argue all you want that Elliott will get enough work in the passing game to be helpful, but at the second-highest price on both sites, you need a lot to go right for a running back that's a double-digit underdog.

We've actually seen backup Tony Pollard ($1,600 DK, $6,500 FD) get a few more opportunities in the last two games, rushing a combined 18 times for 47 yards and catching three of five targets for 15 receiving yards, but it's tough to get excited about his upside if Elliott is healthy because he just don't get a high number of opportunities. Those who make a lot of lineups will surely have him in their player pools, but again, he's a backup running back on a team that's a 10.5-point underdog.

With Miles Sanders ($9,600 DK, $14,000 FD) sidelined again, Boston Scott ($8,800 DK, $10,500 FD) will get another start, and he figures to be very popular, particularly on FanDuel, where he is the 11th-most expensive player (eighth-most among active players), while there are only five players who cost more on DraftKings, including just three active. His volume wasn't great last week against the Giants, rushing 12 times for 46 yards and catching three of five targets for 46 yards and a touchdown, but with the Eagles heavily favored and Scott getting a majority of their backfield opportunities, the only significant reason to fade him is because lots of people will have him on their rosters. Corey Clement ($1,800 DK, $5,000 FD) would presumably be in line for more work if Scott gets hurt, but similar to Pollard, there's not much to be optimistic about otherwise, which also applies to third-stringer Jason Huntley ($200 DK, $5,000 FD).

Scott figures to be a popular captain/MVP play given the expected game script, while Elliott shouldn't be nearly as popular as a big underdog, even with his abilities in the passing game. Then again, contrarians players will surely be thinking that this is the game Elliott finally breaks out.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

The Cowboys have a trio of wide receivers that most teams would kill for, but it's tough to think they're going to get remotely close to their ceilings, or even their Prescott floors, with DiNucci throwing to them. They could be foundational pieces of contrarian lineups, or if you think the Eagles get ahead enough that the Cowboys are forced to throw often, but even then you're relying on DiNucci being able to get them the ball. So, while they are elite talents, Amari Cooper ($8,200 DK, $14,500 FD), CeeDee Lamb ($6,600 DK, $12,000 FD) and Michael Gallup ($3,400 DK, $11,000 FD) don't figure to be overly popular.

Cooper has easily been the most reliable of the group, which is why he's the most expensive, coming in with the second-most targets (72) and receptions (53) in the NFL, while his 583 receiving yards rank seventh and his 616 air yards are 12th. He's had at least nine targets in all but two games this season, and there's a very reasonable game script that continues to see him heavily targeted. And while the Eagles' defense hasn't been that great against wide receivers this season, Cooper figures to be shadowed by Darius Slay, which won't make his job any easier.

As noted by Jerry Donabedian in this week's Hidden Stat Line, Lamb has played fewer than 70 percent of snaps for three straight weeks, and while he was getting opportunities when he was on the field with Prescott, it just didn't happen with Dalton and may not with DiNucci. Additionally, Gallup has had more than six targets just once this season, and he failed to catch either of his targets last week despite a team-high 91 percent snap share and 30 routes. The Cowboys have just given up trying to throw down field, which all but takes Gallup out of the offense. Adding to the list, Cedrick Wilson ($400 DK, $7,000 FD) didn't get any targets on 20 offensive snaps last week, while Noah Brown ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) played 14 and wasn't targeted either. There is occasionally some chemistry between backup quarterbacks and backup wide receivers because they practice more together, but if you're playing that card Sunday then you need to make sure DiNucci looks toward Wilson and Brown on their limited routes.

Tight end Dalton Schultz ($3,600 DK, $9,000 FD) could be more attractive for DiNucci given his 6.9 aDOT, but with six catches on nine targets for 57 yards in the past two games, and only one red-zone look in the past five, you can't play Schultz with any expectation of volume. Then again, his price is low enough to justify consideration as long as you think he'll be able to run routes instead of staying on the line to protect DiNucci.

Speaking of tight ends, the Eagles will get Dallas Goedert ($7,800 DK, $9,500 FD) back from injury, a huge development after being sidelined since suffering his injury early in Week 3. Goedert was one of Wentz's favorite receivers early this season, with 17 targets in the first two games, including a monster eight-catch, 101-yard, one-touchdown performance against Football Team in Week 1. Additionally, rookie wide receiver Jalen Reagor ($4,400 DK, $8,500 FD) is back from injury after missing the past five games, though he didn't have nearly the chemistry as Goedert, and he's most likely to be utilized as a down-field threat after posting a 19.8 aDOT in the first two games. Reagor's return presumably would have pushed John Hightower ($1,200 DK, $7,000 FD) down the depth chart despite an impressive team-leading 22.6 aDOT on 21 targets, but with DeSean Jackson out with a broken ankle, there may be room for both in the offense.

That doesn't mean there will be plenty of targets for them, as Travis Fulgham ($9,200 DK, $13,000 FD) and Greg Ward ($5,000 DK, $7,500 FD) have gotten plenty of looks recently, specifically Fulgham, who has three consecutive games with double-digit targets, helping him to a 25 percent target share and 31 percent air-yard share in his four games (thanks again, Jerry). Fulgham isn't cheap by any means, but that kind of volume is hard to ignore. If there's one negative, it's that Wentz hasn't been accurate enough, as Fulgham only has 11 catches on 21 targets in the past two games, which isn't ideal when you have 7.5 and 6.6 YPTs, respectively. Ward saw some improvement last week with Jackson's return because he was back in the slot, catching five of six targets for 42 yards and a touchdown, and while Jackson is out, Reagor's return should keep Ward in his preferred position.

Goedert's return is a hit to Richard Rodgers ($5,600 DK, $8,500 FD), who was excellent last week, catching six of eight targets for 85 yards. However, it's tough to see him getting a similar workload Sunday night, which will push enough people off him that he ironically becomes a better GPP play. And while he wasn't really a play to begin with, you have to have a long list of issues come up before J.J. Arcega-Whiteside ($600 DK, $5,500 FD) is a viable option unless you're playing him simply because why would anyone play him?

Choosing a receiver from this game as a captain/MVP is really putting your eggs in one basket, though Fulgham is probably going to be popular given his volume recently. Goedert is there too since we know Wentz likes to throw his way, but from a median perspective, Fulgham has to project for more production. Reagor and Hightower can make waves in only a limited number of opportunities, so they shouldn't totally be ignored. The Dallas guys are probably going to be not as popular, with Cooper the reliable one and Gallup a potential big-play threat that no one is going to think much about.

KICKERS

A lower-scoring game should bring the kickers into play even though Jake Elliott ($4,600 DK, $9,000 FD) and Greg Zuerlein ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD) have combined for three double-digit fantasy-point games this season. Elliott has really struggled lately, missing at least one field-goal attempt in three straight games, which is a bummer since he had one, one and two attempts in that span, respectively. Meanwhile, Zuerlein comes in with two made field goals on three attempts and one PAT in the past two combined.

Elliott is sandwiched between Ward and Reagor on DraftKings, and Zuerlein is on FanDuel, so those are basically the types of players you're considering if you don't want the kickers (price-wise). Rodgers is kind of in the same range too, though from a floor perspective you can make a better case for the kickers. Despite the low number of attempts, Zuerlein works if you think the Cowboys can move the ball against the Eagles but not get into the end zone, while Elliott's issue is that the Eagles might actually get there. Neither are sexy options, but they could be helpful in a lower-scoring game among two teams with four wins in 14 games.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Playing against a team using their third-string quarterbacks makes the Eagles ($6,200 DK) defense quite pricey, especially when seeing they're only $400 less than Lamb, something we would have laughed at six weeks ago. But with a seventh-round rookie under center who has thrown three NFL passes, surely you have to consider the Eagles defense, and there could certainly be people who use them as captain. 

The Cowboys defense ($3,000) has been really bad, particularly from a fantasy perspective, but they are facing the quarterback who co-leads the NFL in sacks and interceptions, so maybe the touchdown variance fairies are in Philadelphia tonight, which would certainly make them a huge value play considering their low price.