Streaming Defenses: Picking a Week 16 Defense

This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.

Browns - A week after sitting out with a back injury, Cam Newton returned to practice on Wednesday and is in line to play this weekend against the Browns. Without Newton, the Panthers were able to eke out a win with Derek Anderson holding his own. That was against the Bucs though and this week Newton will face the Browns, who are tied for the league lead in interceptions per game (1.4) and are third in YPA (6.0). Newton has a 7.0 YPA with a 16:11 TD:INT ratio this season and has been dealing with an ankle injury from the off-season and now a back injury, which will likely slow him down, when he does decide to scramble or run in the open field. WR Kelvin Benjamin will likely draw CB Joe Haden, which should be an entertaining matchup. I would expect that Benjamin will still get his fair amount of targets, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a quiet day. As for TE Greg Olsen, he's not likely to find much room to operate either, as the Browns have only given up three TDs this season and two of those went to Jimmy Graham back in Week 2. There really aren't any other pass catching weapons on this team, unless you count WR Jerricho Cotchery who usually doesn't catch more than three passes a game. As for the run game, this is where the Browns can be exposed, as they rank 28th in YPC (4.5). RB Jonathan Stewart has been productive, when healthy this season with a 4.6 YPC, though he should see some of his carries go to DeAngelo Williams (hand), now that he's back. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Stewart have a big game, so long as Williams plays a bit role. As for Newton, I can't see him running much with his back injury. The only thing that worries me in this game is that the Panthers are still in playoff contention, so I expect they'll come out focused. Also, if Johnny Manziel plays like he did last week, he's going to leave the Browns defense on many short fields, which will torpedo their chances of keeping the Panthers out of the redzone. Vegas has this over/under set at 39.5 with the Panthers favored by 3.5, which puts this at about a 22-18 game. Facing the Panthers on the road, the Browns defense/special teams has an ownership of 17.9 percent at ESPN and 35 percent at Yahoo.

Jaguars - In my opinion, the Titans are the worst team in the NFL, as they have no identity on offense and few players that challenge a defense. With injuries to Jake Locker (shoulder) and Zach Mettenberger (shoulder), we're looking at Charlie Whitehurst starting this game for the Titans. Whitehurst was 10-of-24 for 203 yards last week against the Jets. I suppose it could've been worse, but Whitehurst is in his ninth season and by this point, he should be a more secure option as a backup. For his career, he has a 6.4 YPA with a 6:6 TD:INT ratio. WR Kendall Wright should be back for this game, after missing time with a broken bone in his hand. He likely won't play with a splint or cast, which is good news for his fantasy owners, but even still, he's not a great talent, with only one game over 70 yards receiving this season. The biggest passing threat on the Titans is actually TE Delanie Walker, who likely will push for double digit targets this week. The last time these two teams played each other, back in Week 6, Walker had three catches for 57 yards. Outside of those two, it's Nate Washington, who in his 10th season, I guess I should respect more, but he's just as likely to catch a handful of passes as he is to catch one or two for 50 yards or less. Last week he saw a heavy workload with 10 targets, but that was because Wright was out. The Jags rank tied for 23rd in YPA (7.2), but tied for sixth in sacks per game (2.7), so at least they can get after the passer. I'd be worried about the YPA, but it's Charlie Whitehurst, not Steve McNair. As for the ground game, what are the Titans thinking, giving Shonn Greene 16 carries against anyone, as they did last week? This is a criminal misuse of Bishop Sankey and a clear sign that the coaching staff has no idea what it's doing. I gladly welcome them to employ the same strategy against the Jags this week, though. Greene has averaged 3.6 YPC, while Sankey has been at 3.8 YPC, not a big difference, but one is a rookie and the other is in his sixth season. The Jags are average against the run, giving up 4.2 YPC, but they've improved in that area in the last three weeks, only allowing 3.6 YPC. Back in Week 6 this was a 16-14 Titans win, an outcome I fully hope repeats itself. The only question left is, who wants to win this game less, as the loser has the inside track on the potential No. 1 overall pick in next season's draft. Vegas has this over/under set at 40 with the Jags favored by 3.5, which puts this at about a 20-18 game. Facing the Titans at home, the Jags defense/special teams has an ownership of 1.3 percent at ESPN and 3 percent at Yahoo.

Giants - The Rams are one decent QB away from being a really good team. But that's just it, they're missing a QB and until they find one, they're going to be stuck in neutral, when it comes to their offense and hopes of making the playoffs some day. Shaun Hill has a 7.03 YPA with a 6:4 TD:INT ratio, in this his 13th season in the league. I'll give him a bit of a pass for his performance last week against the Cardinals, as it was a Thursday night game (they always stink) and the Cardinals are a pretty good defense. Still, the offense got nothing started with him under center… literally nothing, as they only scored six points off two field goals. With a little more time to prepare, I expect Hill to perform somewhat better, but at this point, he is what he is. Second year WR, Stedman Bailey looks to be coming around, as he's had over 70 yards receiving in three of his last four games. He and Kenny Britt are the lone threats in the passing game. There's really not much to say about those two or the rest of the passing game, other than to say Shaun Hill will likely start the last NFL game of his career in two weeks. That's not to say that he's going to retire, but rather that it seems highly improbable that he'd make another team's roster and then them let him start for them in a real game. The Giants rank 25th in YPA (7.3), but are tied for the fourth most sacks per game (2.9), so they should be able to get to Hill. As for the running game, the Giants are the worst team in the league in YPC (4.9), so expect RB Tre Mason to have a big game. That is, as long as the game doesn't get away from the Rams. If the Giants jump out to a big lead, it'll be tough for the Rams to continue to feed Mason, when they need to pass the ball to get back into the game. As long as the Giants have not quit on the season, they should be able to keep Hill and the Rams in check. Vegas has this over/under set at 43.5 with the Rams favored by 5, which puts this at about a 24-19 game. Facing the Rams on the road, the Giants defense/special teams has an ownership of 44.3 percent at ESPN and 37 percent at Yahoo.

Panthers - After watching Johnny Manziel play last weekend, the first thought that came to my head was, I want to start whatever fantasy defense he's facing every week if I can. He was indecisive, inaccurate, and above all, reckless, as he decided to throw the ball across his body, into coverage on more than one occasion and often looked to make a play when there was nothing there. He is going to gift at least one interception a week to the opposing team with his style of play. It is just one game, so I don't want to over-reach here, but Johnny Football may be the gift that keeps on giving to opposing fantasy defenses. The Panthers will have their hands full with WR Josh Gordon, but I question as to where else they can find production in their passing game. I was starting to think TE Jordan Cameron was looking like his old self, but then he only saw one target last week. I figured with a rookie QB, he'd look Cameron's way early and often, but that wasn't the case. If Manziel makes the adjustment and starts to find Cameron on shorter crossing routes, I could see the duo helping each other out. I like WR Andrew Hawkins, but his targets are tough to judge. The Panthers are ranked 10th in YPA (6.6), which leads me to believe that if they just don't fall for Manziel's antics, when he gets outside of the pocket, they should be able to confuse him and eventually turn him over. As for the run game, It's tough for me to make sense of the split workload between Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell, as Crowell has shown himself to be the better runner this season. Manziel will of course run too, but I don't necessarily think that it helps open up running lanes for West or Crowell, as defenses don't yet have to honor Manziel's arm, so for now it's to their advantage to stack the box and see if Manziel can read a defense and make the adjustment. The Panthers rank 29th in YPC (4.6), so I'd expect the Browns to look to exploit that weakness. If I'm the Panthers, I welcome an offensive game plan based around mostly running the ball against me, as it limits plays in the passing game, limits chunk yardage plays, and sets up difficult third downs, when a QB isn't in rhythm throwing on a limited basis. It would shock me to see this game turn into a shootout, as neither team has the weapons to blow things open. If anything, this should be an ugly game, where neither team is ever really out of it. Vegas has this over/under set at 39.5 with the Panthers favored by 3.5, which puts this at about a 22-18 game. Facing the Browns at home, the Panthers defense/special teams has an ownership of 22.1 percent at ESPN and 45 percent at Yahoo.

Vikings - After starting the season 6-4, the Dolphins have gone 1-3 and will almost certainly not make the playoffs and as a result, will see head coach Joe Philbin get fired. The last three weeks they've scored a total of three touchdowns and in their last two games they've scored just three points in the second half. QB Ryan Tannehill is not running like he was earlier in the season and neither is RB Lamar Miller, who hasn't topped 60 yards rushing in the last four weeks. The Vikings rank tied for 20th in YPC (4.3), so the Dolphins should get back on the right side of things on the ground. That's assuming they haven't already realized their fate as an 8-8 team and quit on their season. Against the pass the Vikings are better, ranking 13th in YPA (6.7) and sixth in sacks per game (2.7). Earlier in the season, I thought Tannehill was starting to turn a corner and develop as a passer, but he's currently ranked 30th in YPA (6.73). He has improved from last season, especially with his accuracy, but his YPA is about the same. WRs Mike Wallace and Jarvis Landry are nice weapons, but inconsistent in their production, as Landy has yet to top 100 receiving yards in a game, while Wallace has done that just once. Also, Landry averages 9.4 YPC, which is 101st in the league, while Wallace catches just 60.8 percent of the passes thrown his way, which ranks 68th. If the offense could get on the same page using both of them or just one of them, they'd be better for it. I've liked the Dolphins defense for most of the season, but injuries have caught up with them and they've been gashed against the run and against the pass, as part of their late season swoon. If QB Teddy Bridgewater can keep the turnovers to a minimum, he and the Vikings offense should be able to get something going and not leave the defense on a short field. The Dolphins have scored over 22 points once since Week 9, I don't think they're about to turn things around now. Vegas has this over/under set at 42.5 with the Dolphins favored by 6.5, which puts this at about a 24-18 game. Facing the Dolphins on the road, the Vikings defense/special teams has an ownership of 30.3 percent at ESPN and 37 percent at Yahoo.

Here are my rankings for this week, next week, and the last two weeks combined:

Finally, heres how the picks from the previous week faired:

Browns (vs Bengals) - 30 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 interception

Panthers (vs Bucs) - 17 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 interception, 2 fumble recoveries

Giants (vs Redskins) - 13 points allowed, 7 sacks, 1 fumble recovery

Jets (@ Titans) - 9 points allowed, 1 sack, 1 fumble recovery

Titans (vs Jets) - 16 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 safety