This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Last week three of us went 1-1, and two went 0-2. Pianowski leads the playoff competition with only the Super Bowl left, but I can catch him if the Bucs cover.
This week, we're split 3:2 on the Super Bowl, and 3:2 on the total (56.)
| Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Payne | Del Don | |
| Buccaneers +3 vs Chiefs | Buccaneers | Chiefs | Buccaneers | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Score (O/U is 56) | 27-26 | 34-27 | 38-31 | 35-28 | 31-24 |
| Last week's Record | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Playoff Record | 4-8 | 8-4 | 7-5 | 6-6 | 7-5 |
| Playoff Best Bet Record | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Best Bet Record | 8-8-1 | 5-11-1 | 5-12 | 8-7-2 | 5-12 |
| Unanimous Pick Record | 18-24 | ||||
| Majority Pick Record | 118-130-8 | ||||
| 2019 Playoff Record | 6-5 | 5-6 | 6-5 | 4-7 | 7-4 |
| 2018 Playoff Record | 4-6-1 | 2-8-1 | 3-7-1 | N/A | 3-7-1 |
| 2017 Playoff Record | 5-6 | 5-6 | 5-6 | N/A | 2-9 |
| 2016 Playoff Record | 6-5 | 5-6 | 6-5 | N/A | 6-5 |
| 2015 Playoff Record | 5-6 | 2-9 | 3-8 | N/A | 1-10 |
| 2014 Playoff Record | 10-1 | 5-6 | 9-2 | N/A | 9-2 |
| 2013 Playoff Record | 5-4-2 | 3-6-2 | 4-5-2 | N/A | 4-5-2 |
| 2012 Playoff Record | 4-6-1 | 5-5-1 | 6-4-1 | N/A | 8-2-1 |
| 2011 Playoff Record | 8-3 | 5-6 | 9-2 | N/A | 7-4 |
| 2010 Playoff Record | 6-5 | 5-6 | 5-6 | N/A | 8-3 |
| 2009 Playoff Record | 5-6 | 4-7 | 1-10 | N/A | 5-6 |
| 2008 Playoff Record | 6-5 | 5-6 | 5-6 | N/A | 4-7 |
| 2007 Playoff Record | 8-3 | 3-8 | 6-5 | N/A | 2-9 |
| 2006 Playoff Record | 7-4 | N/A | 4-7 | N/A | N/A |
| 2005 Playoff Record | 5-6 | N/A | 3-8 | N/A | N/A |
| 2004 Playoff Record | 6-5 | N/A | 4-7 | N/A | N/A |
| 2003 Playoff Record | 6-5 | N/A | 4-7 | N/A | N/A |
| 2002 Playoff Record | 6-5 | 7-4 | 5-6 | N/A | N/A |
| 2001 Playoff Record | 6-4-1 | 7-3-1 | 4-6-1 | N/A | N/A |
| 2020 Record | 121-127-8 | 128-120-8 | 118-130-8 | 115-133-8 | 118-130-8 |
| 2019 Record | 126-124-6 | 140-110-6 | 127-123-6 | 127-123-6 | 134-116-6 |
| 2018 Record | 125-122-9 | 134-113-9 | 141-106-9 | N/A | 120-127-9 |
| 2017 Record | 117-125-14 | 128-114-14 | 117-125-14 | N/A | 98-144-14 |
| 2016 Record | 140-111-5 | 130-121-5 | 123-128-5 | N/A | 132-119-5 |
| 2015 Record | 134-114-8 | 120-128-8 | 114-134-8 | N/A | 121-127-8 |
| 2014 Record | 123-128-5 | 140-111-5 | 135-116-5 | N/A | 128-123-5 |
| 2013 Record | 132-114-10 | 118-128-10 | 123-123-10 | N/A | 128-118-10 |
| 2012 Record | 110-140-6 | 125-125-6 | 121-129-6 | N/A | 123-127-6 |
| 2011 Record | 121-128-7 | 134-115-7 | 124-125-7 | N/A | 127-122-7 |
| 2010 Record | 129-122-5 | 134-117-5 | 126-125-5 | N/A | 134-117-5 |
| 2009 Record | 123-130-3 | 132-121-3 | 131-122-3 | N/A | 126-127-3 |
| 2008 Record | 132-114-10 | 128-118-10 | 124-122-10 | N/A | 130-116-10 |
| 2007 Record | 127-120 | 118-129 | 127-120 | N/A | 130-117 |
| 2006 Record | 118-129 | N/A | 139-108 | N/A | N/A |
| 2005 Record | 121-126 | N/A | 127-120 | N/A | N/A |
| 2004 Record | 124-124 | N/A | 130-118 | N/A | N/A |
| 2003 Record | 121-126 | 118-129 | 124-123 | N/A | N/A |
| 2002 Record | 113-136 | 123-126 | 141-108 | N/A | N/A |
| 2001 Record | 124-113 | 117-120 | 118-119 | N/A | N/A |
| 2000 Record | 123-117 | 134-106 | 141-99 | N/A | N/A |
Like last week, we have no unanimous picks (side or total). We went 17-23 on unanimous picks during the regular season. We also went 0-2 on majority picks (three or more writers) to go 7-5 for the playoffs, after going 118-130-8 on the regular season. We were 23-17-1 on unanimous picks and 130-120-6 on majority picks last year.
| Writer | Comment |
|---|---|
| Erickson | I want the Chiefs to win, and I want a "ticket-to-the-carnival" high scoring game, but I don't think I'll get either. The absence of Eric Fisher is really going to hurt against JPP and crew. Bucs 27-26. |
| Pianowski | I've gone back and forth on this. Tampa Bay certainly could win. The defense hasn't always been consistent or disciplined, but there's talent on all three levels, and there's swagger too -- which matters. You need to actually believe you can win this game. Mind you, the Bucs also need to forget about how Tyreek Hill torched them in October; had the Chiefs wanted, Hill smashes records that day. But when it comes to making a pick, I'm forced to choose between an offense I know will play well versus an offense I think can play well. The line is small enough. Home field is basically meaningless in this type of corporate atmosphere (it didn't matter all year, anyway). The props are more interesting to me than the side, but in this space, we pick sides. Give me some chalk. |
| Liss | The Buccaneers are better on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and that will be the difference. Patrick Mahomes is a wizard, but he wasn't moving especially well in the Bills game, and turf toe often lingers, something that could put him in a tough spot while missing both his starting tackles against a strong pass rush. |
| Payne | I usually take the underdog in the Super Bowl but I'm not going to be against Patrick Mahomes et al. Kansas City has some good pass rushers who will get to Brady. I also like that Tampa insists on using Leonard Fournette over Ronald Jones. |
| Del Don | Kansas City's offensive line is certainly a concern, and it helps Tampa Bay gets to play at home. But the Chiefs have an underrated pass defense and enter with a massive coaching advantage (and arguably the best player ever). KC suddenly increased its pre-snap motion a ton last week; a hint they were just toying around during the regular season. |
The players:
• Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2016 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Weekly Rankings. Covers and roots for the Bengals.
• Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2019 and 2020 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.
• Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2018 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and the Survivor column in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.
• Kevin Payne: Staff Writer, Writes our Waiver Wire column. Roots for the Bills.
• Dalton Del Don: Fantasy Expert for Yahoo! Sports, 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the 49ers.
