Saturday DFS NFL Breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel

ODDS AND RANKINGS

Note: rankings based on fewest fantasy points allowed. For example, the 49ers have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, while the Lions have allowed the 28th-fewest, which is also the fifth-most.

QUARTERBACKS

Kyler Murray ($7,500 DK, $8,700 FD) is the best fantasy quarterback on the slate, which is why he's the most expensive at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but we can't ignore that from a odds and statistical perspective, Tom Brady ($6,800 DK, $8,000 FD) is in a better situation. The Buccaneers have the highest implied total and only four teams have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Lions, who gave up four, one, three and three passing touchdowns in their last four games, respectively. 

Meanwhile, only seven teams have allowed fewer fantasy points to quarterbacks than the 49ers, who limited Murray to only 230 yards and one passing touchdown when they faced off in Week 1. Of course, Murray rushed for 94 yards and another score, contributing to the Niners giving up the fourth-most rushing yards to the position this season. Both quarterbacks figure to be popular, which leaves the other four as differentials for tournaments.

Another reason they'll be popular is that the other quarterbacks on the slate all come with question marks or lack of explosive fantasy scores. Rookie Tua Tagovailoa ($5,400 DK, $7,200 FD) is the healthiest regular starter, as the Lions' Matthew Stafford ($5,600 DK, $7,400 FD) is playing through rib and thumb injuries, while the Raiders' Derek Carr ($5,100 DK, $7,000 FD) suffered what was believed to be a significant groin injury last weekend but then practiced fully Wednesday. If he's unable to play, Marcus Mariota ($5,000 DK, $7,600 FD) could start in his place. And finally, C.J. Beathard ($5,000 DK, $6,800 FD) will start for the 49ers in place of the injured Nick Mullens (elbow), who was starting for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle).

Tagovailoa has the best matchup of that group, facing a Raiders defense that's allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including at least two touchdowns in five straight games. He's been somewhat up and down in his three starts, but he rushed for three touchdowns in the past two games (though only 33 rushing yards), which is why he seems like the viable alternative to Murray and Brady. A healthy Stafford may have been more desirable against a Buccaneers defense that allowed multiple passing touchdowns in seven of their last eight, including three in three of their last four, but the injuries seem to be hampering him quite a bit.

RUNNING BACKS

The Lions and Raiders have been two of the worst teams against the run this season, which should immediately make fantasy players jump at Salvon Ahmed ($5,600 DK, $6,600 FD), who has taken over the Dolphins' backfield and is coming off a big game against the Patriots when he rushed 23 times for 122 yards and a touchdown. It was the second time in his last three games with more than 20 carries, and the game in between he caught five of six targets for 31 receiving yards.

The Buccaneers situation is pretty clear with Leonard Fournette ($5,500 DK, $7,000 FD), who is expected to continue leading their backfield with Ronald Jones (finger) ruled out. Fournette isn't as good as Ahmed, but because they are both cheap there seems to be a pretty clear path to many fantasy players just using both. That strangely leaves the two most-expensive running backs to consider as a third (or fade), with Josh Jacobs ($6,600 DK, $7,600 FD) facing a Dolphins defense that's allowed fewer than 90 rushing yards and zero touchdowns to running backs in five of six games, plus D'Andre Swift ($6,400 DK, $7,200 FD) against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position this season, with just one team's running backs rushing for more than 90 yards. Both are good players, but their matchups are significantly tougher.

That leaves Kenyan Drake ($5,200 DK, $6,500 FD) and Jeff Wilson ($5,500 DK, $6,000 FD) against each other in relatively tough matchups. Drake is at least playing for a favorite, but he also has been losing valuable touches to Chase Edmonds ($4,600 DK, $5,800 FD), who is questionable to play because of ankle and knee issues. Drake may be a more desirable option if Edmonds is inactive, but he seems like a more reasonable third running back for those who can stomach playing Fournette.

WIDE RECEIVERS

DeAndre Hopkins ($8,300 DK, $8,700 FD) is the clear top wide receiver on the slate and likely to be extremely popular, especially for those who use Murray as their quarterback. The league-leader in receiving yards (1,324), Hopkins is also third in targets (138) and second in receptions (103), and he simply dominates the Cardinals' air game. He had at least 11 targets and eight catches in each of his last three games, putting up at least 136 receiving yards in each of the past two. And while it was a bit ago, he had 14 catches on 16 targets for 151 yards against San Francisco in Week 1.

There are plenty of other paths to take for filling out the other wide receiver spots, with correlation obviously the most important for tournaments. With that, fantasy players who use Brady will need to figure out which of Mike Evans ($6,100 DK, $7,500), Chris Godwin ($6,000 DK, $7,200 FD) and Antonio Brown ($5,300 DK, $6,600 FD) to use, though fitting two isn't that hard; you just have to hope it's not the third who goes off. They have the best matchup among teams on the slate, but Buccaneers passing stacks aren't that cheap.

The wideouts on the other side of their game shouldn't be ignored, but again, Stafford being hurt really doesn't help the optimism for Marvin Jones ($4,900 DK, $6,800 FD), who has come on of late in place of the injured Kenny Golladay (hip). There are other cheap options like Danny Amendola ($3,700 DK, $5,100 FD), Mohamed Sanu ($3,000 DK, $4,900 FD) and Quintez Cephus ($3,000 DK, $4,800 FD), but you're really banking on variance taking over to get you over the line with those guys.

The 49ers' Brandon Aiyuk ($6,700 DK, $7,800 FD) has been awesome lately, but another quarterback change could hurt his potential after scoring at least one touchdown in five of his last seven games, with at least nine targets in his last five. He makes for a fine GPP option because there are enough question marks about him, and he's clearly the top 49ers option ahead of Kendrick Bourne ($4,200 DK, $5,200) FD) and Richie James ($3,400 DK, $5,000 FD), who is questionable with an ankle injury.

The Dolphins also have some questions, notable DeVante Parker ($5,500 DK, $6,400 FD), who did not play last week because of a hamstring injury. Additionally, Jakeem Grant ($3,600 DK, $4,800 FD) is questionable because of a hamstring injury, which could keep Lynn Bowden ($3,900 DK, $5,300 FD) popular after getting 16 targets in the past two games, racking up 119 yards on 13 catches. His price is attractive for those looking to pay up for Murray and Hopkins or the Buccaneers' guys, which means he could be pretty popular.

The Raiders receivers all seem okay, with Nelson Agholor ($4,500 DK, $5,800 FD) the most popular, getting at least eight targets in each of the last three games. The situation is a bit cloudy because Henry Ruggs ($4,000 DK, $5,400 FD) could be activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list, but that would come after pretty much not practicing for close to two weeks. We also have Hunter Renfrow ($3,300 DK, $5,200 FD) potentially returning from a concussion, and all of these guys are considerations for a quarterback who suffered a groin injury last week. Given their prices, it seems more people could be drawn to the Cardinals' Christian Kirk ($3,800 DK, $5,100 FD) or Larry Fitzgerald ($3,400 DK, $5,000 FD), with the former likely to be much more popular because no one likes to play the latter.

TIGHT ENDS

Only six players in the NFL have been targeted more than Darren Waller ($7,000 DK, $7,600 FD), who would probably be pretty popular if he was a wide receiver. Most fantasy players just hate paying up for a tight end, but Waller is the guy if you're willing to go in that direction. The problem is that the Dolphins have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season, so you're taking a leap of faith that Waller will be able to buck that trend (in fairness, he's bucked plenty of them this season).

The Dolphins' Mike Gesicki ($4,400 DK, $6,000 FD) would be a strong option if he overcomes the shoulder injury that held him out of last week's game, and he'd probably be more popular that the Lions' T.J. Hockenson ($4,600 DK, $6,200 FD), who had at least seven targets in four straight games before getting only four last week. Stafford's injury will surely affect Hockenson, so he probably isn't going to be overly popular if Gesicki is cleared to play.

You could also pay down further for Rob Gronkowski ($3,600 DK, $5,700 FD), who is occasionally a touchdown threat, though the volume of targets has just been so inconsistent this season. Despite that, he'll probably still be more popular than Jordan Reed ($2,900 DK, $5,300 FD), who has the benefit of being one of the cheapest reasonable options and has two touchdowns in his last three games.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Defenses are so volatile in terms of fantasy points that prioritizing one over the others seems to be a sub-optimal strategy unless you specifically have the salary for it. The Dolphins ($4,000 DK, $4,700 FD), Buccaneers ($3,800 DK, $4,200 FD) and Cardinals ($3,300 DK, $4,800 FD) are all playing injured or backup quarterbacks, with the Cardinals offering the most salary savings of the group on DraftKings, though they are the most expensive on FanDuel. Each is a fine play if you can afford it.

Maybe the most important thing to remember about DSTs is that if you really like the rest of your lineup and may not have the exact one you want, don't rearrange a number of other spots just to get a defense in. Given the variance of the position, it's certainly within the realm of possibilities that the Lions ($2,000 DK, $3,000 FD), the cheapest DST on both sites, end up as the highest-scorer at the position even if they lose because of wacky special teams or turnover scores.