OwnersBox NFL DFS: Week 16 Picks

OwnersBox NFL DFS: Week 16 Picks

This article is part of our DFS NFL series.

OwnersBox's SuperFlex contests provide participants with a chance to roster up to two quarterbacks per lineup, opening up the opportunity for major scoring boosts and a more entertaining fantasy sweat overall.

Each week of the NFL regular season, we'll break down appealing candidates in the main Sunday slate for OwnersBox's NFL SuperFlex DFS contests.  

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert, LAC at HOU ($8,100)

Herbert has been on a late-season roll, scoring between 21 to 41 fantasy points in his last five games. The second-year signal-caller is completing 69.3 percent of his passes and boasts a 16:6 TD:INT over the past seven games, averaging a solid 37.3 pass attempts per game along the way. He could be down a key receiver out of the backfield in Austin Ekeler (COVID-19 protocols) for Sunday's contest, but that may only put more on Herbert's plate against a solid but still beatable Texans secondary.  

Joe Burrow, CIN vs. BAL ($6,800)

Burrow has had some up-and-down performances over the last month-plus, failing to throw for at least 200 yards on three occasions in the last five games. He also has a mediocre 6:3 TD:INT in that span, but he could be in an excellent position to post strong numbers Week 16 against the Ravens. Burrow racked up a season-high 416 yards and three touchdowns against Baltimore in Week 7, This week, he's facing an injury-depleted Ravens squad that's allowing 264.9 passing yards per contest while allowing the second-highest yards per completion (11.4) on the road.

ALSO CONSIDER: Jalen Hurts, PHI vs. NYG ($6,900)

Running Backs

James Robinson, JAC at NYJ ($6,600)

Robinson is managing an ongoing knee issue, but he's expected to play through it again in Week 16 for a favorable matchup against the Jets. The second-year back's usage increased in Week 15, as Robinson totaled 18 carries and 21 touches in the first game with Darrell Bevell as the interim head coach. This week's matchup against a New York defense that's allowed 137.7 rushing yards and 4.4 yards per rush per home game  -- along with a 91-817-4 line through the air to running backs overall – sets Robinson up to deliver a handsome return.

David Montgomery, CHI at SEA ($6,500)

Members of the Bears offense typically aren't fantasy darlings, but Montgomery is a workhorse back with a role in the passing game and he has the talent to exploit weaknesses in the Seahawks run defense. Seattle has yielded 116.5 rushing yards per home game and has also conceded an NFL-high 101 receptions and 930 receiving yards to running backs, while Montgomery has 31 receptions over 10 games, with 19 catches coming in the last three games. Montgomery has also flashed a ceiling well north of 20 fantasy points on two occasions this season, making him a potentially sneaky tournament play that could pay big dividends.

ALSO CONSIDER: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC vs. PIT ($6,200)

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp, LAR at MIN ($8,300)

Kupp's record-setting season continued in fine fashion Tuesday night against the Seahawks, when he accumulated 136 yards and two touchdowns on nine receptions for his second straight tally over 30 fantasy points. The standout receiver has three straight 100-yard efforts and four such outings in his last five games, and he's now averaging 26 fantasy points for the season. The Vikings could well facilitate another spectacular performance for Kupp, as Minnesota ranks in the bottom half of the league with a 10% explosive pass play rate allowed while also yielding 264.7 passing yards per home game and an elevated 11.8 yards per completion in that split.  

CeeDee Lamb, DAL vs. WAS ($6,800)

Lamb has one of the safer floors at his position and he finds himself in a favorable matchup against a Washington defense that's allowed an NFL-high 72.7 completion rate on the road. Washington has also given up the second-most receptions (198), third-most receiving yards (2,475) and third-most touchdown receptions (16) to wideouts, while Lamb already posted a 7-61 line on 10 targets against Washington two games ago. The second-year wideout has also scored 17 fantasy points or more in seven games, corroborating his considerable upside at a very reasonable mid-level salary.

Tee Higgins, CIN vs. BAL ($6,000)

Higgins is coming off a modest 2-23 line in Week 15, which could lead to his roster rates taking a hit Sunday. That makes him a potentially great pairing in your lineups with Burrow, given the Ravens' vulnerabilities against the pass already described in the latter's entry earlier. Higgins logged a whopping 15 targets in the Week 7 game against the Ravens and came away with a 7-62 line, but he's been even better recently with three straight 100-yard efforts prior to the clunker against a tough Broncos defense Sunday. In addition to the metrics already cited in Burrow's entry, it's also worth noting Baltimore is tied with the Jets for highest explosive pass play rate allowed (12%), while Higgins has seen 13 of his 59 receptions go for more than 20 yards.

ALSO CONSIDER: DeVonta Smith, PHI vs. NYG ($6,200)

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski, TB at CAR ($6,500)

Mike Evans (hamstring) remains questionable for Sunday's game, Chris Godwin is out for the season with a torn ACL, and Antonio Brown, if he does suit up, will be making his return from an eight-game absence thanks to an ankle injury and three-game suspension. All of those factors point to a very busy day for Gronkowski, who posted double-digit fantasy points in his first four games back from lung and back injuries before seeing that streak snapped against the Saints in Week 15. Carolina has also given up a full 66-611-5 line to tight ends and the Bucs should look to get Gronkowski more involved due to their depleted pass-catching corps

Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. NYG ($5,500)

Goedert has exploded for back-to-back 100-yard efforts in his last two games, bringing in an impressive 13 of 15 targets. The veteran lines up for more success in Week 16, as the Giants have played poor road defense overall and have given up an NFC-high 276.9 passing yards per contest when traveling. New York has also given up an 81-742-6 line to tight ends, with the reception tally tying for fifth most in the league. Goedert has at least 62 receiving yards in five of the last seven contests, affording him a relatively secure floor, particularly at his salary.

ALSO CONSIDER: Mark Andrews, BAL at CIN ($7,100)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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