This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Bets: Regular Season Records To Be Broken In 2023
With NFL season around the corner, there is a wide variety of NFL futures markets available to bettors. FanDuel has launched a market called "Record Breakers" with numerous records that could fall during the 2023/24 season. Some are straightforward, such as the regular season passing yardage record. Others are more niche, like Patrick Mahomes & Josh Allen to both have 35+ Passing TD's (Would be First Player's ever to have 35+ TD's in 4 Straight Years).
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Justin Jefferson to record 1600+ Receiving Yards YES -186
FanDuel posted this as Jefferson would be the 1st WR to have 1600+ receiving yards 3 years in a row, but if you take into consideration that the NFL schedule just expanded to 17 games two years ago along with all of the rule changes benefitting offense, this looks to be very achievable.
Two things to consider are durability and quarterback play. Jefferson has played in 50 out of a possible 54 games and his quarterback is the same in Kirk Cousins who missed just one game in the last eight years.
The Vikings also drafted Jordan Addison in the first round which will help reduce the amount of double coverage Jefferson can see.
In order to hit 1600 receiving yards, you have to average 95 yards per game; Jefferson has averaged in his 96.5 yards per game in his career and 106.4 yards per game in 2022.
In a worst-case scenario, let's look at the numbers if Jefferson does not play the full 17 games
16 - 100 yards per game
15 - 107 yards per game
14 - 114 yards per game
Even if Jefferson were to miss 2-3 games, the 1600 receiving yards number looks to be achievable.
Deebo Samuel to record 770+ receiving yards & 218 rushing yards YES +285
The same criteria that I looked at with Jefferson apply to Deebo Samuel. Durability and quarterback play. Unlike Jefferson, there are question marks for Samuel in both areas. Samuel gets exposed to a lot of hard hits making him a liability to miss games. The 49ers quarterback situation is also in a state of flux but that could work itself out.
Let's look at Samuel's per-game numbers to see if this warrants an OVER or UNDER.
Samuel has played in 51 out of a possible 65 games in his career (78 percent). He has averaged 63 yards receving per game and 15 yards rushing per game. But his rushing totals have increased in the last two years to 20.5 yards per game.
For Samuel to go over his yardage props, he has to average 46 yards receiving and 13 yards rushing if he plays in all 17 games. If he played in 80 percent of games (13.6), he would average 50 yards receiving and 16 yards rushing. Even working in Samuel missing some games, I still like him to go OVER his receiving and rushing yards prop.
Patrick Mahomes to throw 35+ touchdown passes YES -146
The final FanDuel Record Breaker bet I like is for Patrick Mahomes to throw OVER 35 touchdown passes. Again, the additional 17th game is a big part of this along with the Kansas City offensive line which is one of the best in football.
Mahomes has hit over 35 passing touchdowns in 4 out of his first 5 full seasons and has played in 79 games out of a possible 82. He has averaged 2.4 passing touchdowns per game in his career. There is always the possibility that Mahomes sits Week 17 if the Chiefs have everything clinched, so I will look at all scenarios.
Plays 17 games - 35 TD (2.06 per game)
16 games - 35 TD (2.19 per game)
15 games - 35 TD (2.33 per game)
14 games - 35 TD (2.5 per game)
Even if Mahomes were to miss 2 games, he should still be able to hit 35 based on his career numbers. If you just look at his last 2 seasons, he averaged 2.29 passing touchdowns per game.
NFL Record Breaker Bets at FanDuel Sportsbook Recap
- Justin Jefferson to record 1600+ Receiving Yards YES -186
- Deebo Samuel to record 770+ receiving yards & 218 rushing yards YES +285
- Patrick Mahomes to throw 35+ touchdown passes YES -146
