This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Odds Changes And Line Moves
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
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NFL Week 10 Odds (Opening, Current)
- Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens -3.0 O/U 46.0 (Ravens -6.0, O/U 52.5)
- New York Giants -1.0 vs. Carolina Panthers O/U 42.5 (Giants -4.5, O/U 41.5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 at Washington Commanders O/U 43.5 (Commanders -2.5, O/U 46.0)
- Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars -3.0 O/U 44.5 (Vikings -4.0, O/U 47.5)
- San Francisco 49ers -5.0 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers O/U 46.5 (49ers -6.0, O/U 48.5)
- Atlanta Falcons -1.5 at New Orleans Saints O/U 44.5 (Falcons -3.0, O/U 46.5)
- Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs -9.0 O/U 46.0 (Chiefs -9.0, O/U 41.5)
- Buffalo Bills -2.0 at Indianapolis Colts O/U 46.5 (Bills -4.0, O/U 47.0)
- New England Patriots at Chicago Bears -5.5 O/U 43.0 (Bears -6.0, O/U 39.5)
- Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers -4.0 O/U 43.5 (Chargers -7.5, O/U 38.0)
- New York Jets -3.0 at Arizona Cardinals O/U 46.5 (Cardinals -1.0, O/U 46.0)
- Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys -2.0 O/U 48.0 (Eagles -7.5, O/U 41.5)
- Detroit Lions at Houston Texans -1.0 O/U 50.0 (Lions -3.0, O/U 51.0)
- Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams -1.0 O/U 47.5 (Rams -2.5, O/U 51.0)
BYES:Browns, Packers, Raiders, Seahawks
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NFL Week 10 Key Injury News
QB - Dak Prescott (DAL)
RB - Brian Robinson Jr (WAS)
WR - A.J. Brown (PHI), Chris Olave (NO), Drake London (ATL), Jaylen Waddle (MIA), Amari Cooper (BUF), CeeDee Lamb (DAL), WR Darius Slayton (NYG)
NFL Week 10 Odds Observations
- The highest spread is Chiefs -9.0; the lowest spread is Cardinals -1.0
- The highest total is Ravens/Bengals 53.0; the lowest total is Chargers/Titans 37.5
- The five highest team totals are Ravens, Rams, Bills, 49ers, Lions
- The five lowest team totals are Cowboys, Panthers, Broncos, Patriots, Titans
NFL Week 10 Line Movement
Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Vikings are one of the teams that has seen their power ratings increase the most since the beginning of the season. On the flip side, the Jaguars look potentially one week away from firing head coach Doug Pederson.
The Jaguars opened this spring as -3.0 point home favorites, but the line has now moved a full 7 points and the Vikings are -4.0 road favorites. The Vikings peaked at -5.5 before seeing the buyback on the Jags. The total opened 44.5 and jumped 3 points to 47.5 on reopen. The total has bounced around from 46.0 to 47.5 (with 47/48 key numbers).
The Jaguars are just 3-12 in their last 15 games with the last 5 going over which explains why the total moved.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys suffered the biggest injury of the week to their quarterback Dak Prescott and will have to start Cooper Rush or Trey Lance. The line impact of the Prescott injury looks like about 5.0 to 6.0 points on the side and the total.
The Cowboys opened -2.0 point home favorites, but the line had recently flipped to Eagles -2.5 before the Prescott injury. Now the Eagles are a whopping -7.5 road favorite and the total has gone from 48.0 down to 42.0 (low of 41.5).
Aside from the Prescott injury, there is a potential for multiple key players to be out of this game. The Eagles have Saquon Barkley, A.J. Green, Dallas Goedert, and Darius Slay listed as questionable. The Cowboys have CeeDee Lamb, Zack Martin, and Micah Parsons listed as questionable.
Detroit Lions at Houston Texans
A lot has changed for the Houston Texans since Nico Collins went down with an injury Week Five, though he potentially returns this week. The Texans offense has struggled, especially C.J. Stroud and they also now have wide receiver Stefon Diggs out of the season.
The Texans were originally -1.0 point home favorites, but the Lions moved to -2.5 point road favorites. It has now crossed over the key number of 3 to Lions -3.5. I think we could see this line come back towards the Texans after the Collins injury situation is resolved.
The Lions look like the best team in football along with the Chiefs and they come in off a strong road win against the Packers. This could become a letdown spot and the line looks inflated in favor of the Lions now.
New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals
One of the teams that has seen their power rating decline the most is the Jets which also puts them on the list to have their games with the most line movement.
While the Jets do not have many key injuries, they do have some cluster injuries on the offensive line and secondary that will impact the game.
The Jets were originally -3.0 road favorites, but they are just 3-6 after a Thursday night win against the Texans. The Jets need to win any game in which they are within a field goal underdog to have a chance at the playoffs.
The Cardinals find themselves at -1.0 point home favorites now with higher expectations, and the Jets are just 2-8 in their last 10 on the road.
