NFL Picks: Divisional Round Sunday Football: Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

NFL Picks: Divisional Round Sunday Football: Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills: Odds, Picks, and Predictions

The Baltimore Ravens (13-5) travel to Buffalo to take on the Buffalo Bills (14-4) in an AFC Divisional Round Playoff matchup on Sunday. The Ravens come into the game as the 3 seed off a 28-14 win against the Steelers while the Bills are the 2 seed and defeated the Broncos last week 31-7. The Ravens defeated the Bills 35-10 in Week 4. 

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds

Ravens +0.5 (Fanatics -120) / Bills +1.5 (ESPN Bet -110)

Ravens ML (Bet MGM -115) / Bills ML (Caesars Sportsbook +110)

Total OVER 51.0 (Caesars Sportsbook -110) / UNDER 52.0 (Fanatics -125) 

The Bills opened as -1.5 point home favorites on Monday, and the line immediately moved to the Bills -0.5, Ravens -0.5, and now Ravens -1.5 . The total opened 51.5 and it has remained at that number. 

The majority of the bets (54%) have come in on the Bills, but the handle (52%) has come in on the Ravens which reflects where the "sharp" money has landed. There is a +6% difference on handle versus bets for Baltimore.

The total is also close to split as the money on the Under at 51% of total bets, and 53% of the handle. The moneyline is right down the middle with both handle and bets running close to 50/50. 

Key Injuries

Ravens - WR Zay Flowers (Q)

Bills - RB Ray Davis (Q)

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Ravens vs. Bills Betting Picks 

  • Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The Bills are 9-1, 17-3, and 25-5 SU in their last 10/20/30 home games 
  • The average score in the last 30 Bills home games is 30-18 (33-17 last 10)
  • Buffalo is 7-3 to the OVER in their last 10 games
  • The last time the Bills were home underdogs was 1/3/21 against the Dolphins

The Ravens blowout 35-10 win against the Bills in Week 4 is the driving force behind this line move as both teams won in dominant fashion last week. But that Raven rout was in Baltimore and this game is in Buffalo where the Bills have been one of the best home teams over the last few years. 

The strength of the Bills defense is stopping the run  and they have to at least try to keep Derrick Henry from going wild. Lamar Jackson's playoff history is not good and the Ravens abandoned the run last year in the playoffs against the Chiefs and that cost them the game. That is the Bills goal Sunday, to put this game on the passing arm of Jackson, who will miss his best wideout in Zay Flowers

This game will fall on Josh Allen and he will take off and run when needed especially in the red zone in this weather.

Ravens vs. Bills Best Bet: Bills +1.5 (ESPN Bet -110)

Secondary Bet: Josh Allen Anytime TD (DraftKings Sportsbook +110)

Ravens vs. Bills Prediction

It is hard to imagine that the Ravens beat the Bills in Week 4 by a score of 35-10, so there is a bit of revenge angle here. Also, both MVP candidate quarterbacks are on a mission to dethrone the Chiefs and get to their first Super Bowl. I am hoping this game lives up to the hype on Sunday night and we get a classic. I have to lean on the Bills at home over the Ravens. 

Bills 24, Ravens 23

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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