NFL Picks: Conference Championship Edition

NFL Picks: Conference Championship Edition

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

Pianow won the week at 4-0, but because he was 0-4 during the Wild Card round, he's tied with Erickson and me and two games behind Stopa. But because Stopa, Erickson and I have the same picks, only Pianow can catch him. DDD - keeping the theme from the regular season going - is 2-6.

Three of us like the Jags are our best bets, while one writer took the Eagles and one took the Vikings. The only team that's not a best bet is the Pats.

EricksonPianowskiLissStopaDel Don
Jaguars +9 at PatriotsJaguarsPatriotsJaguarsJaguarsPatriots
Vikings -3 at EaglesVikingsEaglesVikingsVikingsVikings
Bet BetJaguarsEaglesJaguarsJaguarsVikings
Last Week's Record3-14-01-32-21-3
2017 Playoff Record4-44-44-46-22-6
Best Bet Record9-8-210-8-113-5-19-8-212-7
Unanimous Pick Record23-28-4
Majority Pick Record125-125-14
2016 Playoff Record6-55-66-54-76-5
2015 Playoff Record5-62-93-82-91-10
2014 Playoff Record10-15-69-24-79-2
2013 Playoff Record5-4-23-6-24-5-24-5-24-5-2
2012 Playoff Record4-6-15-5-16-4-14-6-18-2-1
2011 Playoff Record8-35-69-26-57-4
2010 Playoff Record6-55-65-67-48-3
2009 Playoff Record5-64-71-106-55-6
2008 Playoff Record6-55-65-68-34-7
2007 Playoff Record8-33-86-5N/A2-9
2006 Playoff Record7-4N/A4-7N/AN/A
2005 Playoff Record5-6N/A3-8N/AN/A
2004 Playoff Record6-5
Pianow won the week at 4-0, but because he was 0-4 during the Wild Card round, he's tied with Erickson and me and two games behind Stopa. But because Stopa, Erickson and I have the same picks, only Pianow can catch him. DDD - keeping the theme from the regular season going - is 2-6.

Three of us like the Jags are our best bets, while one writer took the Eagles and one took the Vikings. The only team that's not a best bet is the Pats.

EricksonPianowskiLissStopaDel Don
Jaguars +9 at PatriotsJaguarsPatriotsJaguarsJaguarsPatriots
Vikings -3 at EaglesVikingsEaglesVikingsVikingsVikings
Bet BetJaguarsEaglesJaguarsJaguarsVikings
Last Week's Record3-14-01-32-21-3
2017 Playoff Record4-44-44-46-22-6
Best Bet Record9-8-210-8-113-5-19-8-212-7
Unanimous Pick Record23-28-4
Majority Pick Record125-125-14
2016 Playoff Record6-55-66-54-76-5
2015 Playoff Record5-62-93-82-91-10
2014 Playoff Record10-15-69-24-79-2
2013 Playoff Record5-4-23-6-24-5-24-5-24-5-2
2012 Playoff Record4-6-15-5-16-4-14-6-18-2-1
2011 Playoff Record8-35-69-26-57-4
2010 Playoff Record6-55-65-67-48-3
2009 Playoff Record5-64-71-106-55-6
2008 Playoff Record6-55-65-68-34-7
2007 Playoff Record8-33-86-5N/A2-9
2006 Playoff Record7-4N/A4-7N/AN/A
2005 Playoff Record5-6N/A3-8N/AN/A
2004 Playoff Record6-5N/A4-7N/AN/A
2003 Playoff Record6-5N/A4-7N/AN/A
2002 Playoff Record6-57-45-6N/AN/A
2001 Playoff Record6-4-17-3-14-6-1N/AN/A
2017 Record117-125-14128-114-14117-125-14119-123-1498-144-14
2016 Record133-102-5122-113-5115-120-5108-127-5123-112-5
2015 Record134-114-8120-128-8114-134-8127-121-8121-127-8
2014 Record123-128-5140-111-5135-116-5124-127-5128-123-5
2013 Record132-114-10118-128-10123-123-10111-135-10128-118-10
2012 Record110-140-6125-125-6121-129-6143-107-6123-127-6
2011 Record121-128-7134-115-7124-125-7123-126-7127-122-7
2010 Record129-122-5134-117-5126-125-5136-115-5134-117-5
2009 Record123-130-3132-121-3131-122-3130-123-3126-127-3
2008 Record132-114-10128-118-10124-122-10125-121-10130-116-10
2007 Record127-120118-129127-120N/A130-117
2006 Record118-129N/A139-108N/AN/A
2005 Record121-126N/A127-120N/AN/A
2004 Record124-124N/A130-118N/AN/A
2003 Record121-126118-129124-123N/AN/A
2002 Record113-136123-126141-108N/AN/A
2001 Record124-113117-120118-119N/AN/A
2000 Record123-117134-106141-99N/AN/A

Unanimous/Majority Picks

Like last week, we have no unanimous picks. We were 23-28-4 on the season on them. We went 2-2 on majority picks (three or more writers) to bring our season record to 125-125-14. Last year we went 27-22-2 on unanimous picks and 138-124-5 on majority picks.

Comments:

WriterComment
EricksonI'm betting on the two superior defenses, though in fairness Philly has a pretty damn good defense too. Vikings 20-16, Patriots 27-26, after Jacksonville controversially has a two-point conversion reversed upon review.
PianowskiIt's hard to tell which version of the Jags will show up. Remember, this group was life-and-death to beat an ordinary Buffalo team two weeks ago. And it's not like Pittsburgh playing down to level of competition is a new thing. As good as Jacksonville's defense is, New England should put some points on the board - I don't think Jacksonville can hide Bortles in this game. And New England's defense has been a lot better in the second half, and it teed off on Mariota last week. Pats also get an extra day of rest and of prep... Eagles are the "best" pick but that's by default. I don't love either game. But I think Philly's defense and home field are getting less consideration than is just, and Minnesota is also a dome team being asked to play outside in January. Give me the home dog.
LissThe Vikings game is a coin flip for me, but I like the Jaguars getting nine. As long as the Pats don't get up two scores early, I think this will be a war, and the Jaguars are the younger, more athletic and more physical team.
StopaPittsburgh scored 42 points on the Jaguars because every TD was perfect offensive execution. Can the Patriots do that? Maybe. But I'm not betting on it. To the extent it's possible for one guy to cover Gronk, Ramsey can. Bouye can eliminate Cooks. The front four can generate pressure without blitzing. So where are the Pats mismatches? Where is the perfect offensive execution we saw from the Steelers Hall of Famers coming? I don't see it. I parlayed Jags +9.5 and the under pretty hard this week. Jaguars 17-16. I'm worried the Vikings are spent emotionally after the crazy finish last week. But their edge at quarterback is pronounced, and I'm not sure Philly can win by hiding Foles (so many short passes last week) again. Vikings 24-13.
Del Don I flipped back and forth on the AFC game, as I'd hardly be surprised if Jacksonville kept it close. Still, New England seemingly matches up well, and if Blake Bortles beats me again, so be it... Like last week, Philadelphia is clearly the sharp side, and I'm again on the other. The Vikings defense is good enough to win mostly on its own, giving them a trip back home for the Super Bowl.

The players:

• Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2016 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Weekly Rankings. Covers and roots for the Bengals.

• Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009, 2011, 2014 and 2017 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.

• Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and the Survivor column in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.

• Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, 2010, 2012 Staff Picks Champ, Writes Run 'N' Shoot. Roots for the Bills.

• Dalton Del Don: Fantasy Expert for Yahoo! Sports, 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the 49ers.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Liss
Chris Liss was RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio from 2001-2022.
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