This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
For some reason, Week 1 always seems to be our groupthink week. Last year we had nine unanimous picks, and this year five: the Bengals, Texans, Dolphins, Broncos and Panthers. Both Stopa and I have the Bengals as our best bets.
Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Stopa | Del Don | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Falcons +2 at Eagles | Eagles | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Eagles |
Steelers -4 at Browns | Browns | Browns | Steelers | Browns | Browns |
49ers +6 at Vikings | Vikings | 49ers | Vikings | Vikings | 49ers |
Bengals +3 at Colts | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals |
Bills +7 at Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Bills | Ravens |
Jaguars -3 at Giants | Giants | Jaguars | Giants | Jaguars | Jaguars |
Buccaneers +9.5 at Saints | Saints | Buccaneers | Saints | Saints | Saints |
Texans +6.5 at Patriots | Texans | Texans | Texans | Texans | Texans |
Titans -1.5 at Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins |
Chiefs +3.5 at Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Chiefs | Chargers | Chiefs |
Seahawks +3 at Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos |
Cowboys +3 at Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers |
Redskins pick 'em at Cardinals | Cardinals | Redskins | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals |
Bears +7.5 at Packers | Bears | Bears | Packers | Packers | Packers |
Jets +6.5 at Lions | Lions | Jets | Lions | Jets | Jets |
Rams -4 at Raiders |
For some reason, Week 1 always seems to be our groupthink week. Last year we had nine unanimous picks, and this year five: the Bengals, Texans, Dolphins, Broncos and Panthers. Both Stopa and I have the Bengals as our best bets.
Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Stopa | Del Don | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Falcons +2 at Eagles | Eagles | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Eagles |
Steelers -4 at Browns | Browns | Browns | Steelers | Browns | Browns |
49ers +6 at Vikings | Vikings | 49ers | Vikings | Vikings | 49ers |
Bengals +3 at Colts | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals |
Bills +7 at Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Bills | Ravens |
Jaguars -3 at Giants | Giants | Jaguars | Giants | Jaguars | Jaguars |
Buccaneers +9.5 at Saints | Saints | Buccaneers | Saints | Saints | Saints |
Texans +6.5 at Patriots | Texans | Texans | Texans | Texans | Texans |
Titans -1.5 at Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins |
Chiefs +3.5 at Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Chiefs | Chargers | Chiefs |
Seahawks +3 at Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos |
Cowboys +3 at Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers |
Redskins pick 'em at Cardinals | Cardinals | Redskins | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals |
Bears +7.5 at Packers | Bears | Bears | Packers | Packers | Packers |
Jets +6.5 at Lions | Lions | Jets | Lions | Jets | Jets |
Rams -4 at Raiders | Rams | Raiders | Rams | Rams | Rams |
Best Bet | Ravens | Browns | Bengals | Bengals | Broncos |
2017 Best Bet Record | 8-7-2 | 9-7-1 | 12-4-1 | 8-7-2 | 11-6 |
2017 Unanimous Pick Record | 23-28-4 | ||||
2017 Majority Pick Record | 121-121-14 | ||||
2017 Record | 117-125-14 | 128-114-14 | 117-125-14 | 119-123-14 | 98-144-14 |
2016 Record | 133-102-5 | 122-113-5 | 115-120-5 | 108-127-5 | 123-112-5 |
2015 Record | 134-114-8 | 120-128-8 | 114-134-8 | 127-121-8 | 121-127-8 |
2014 Record | 123-128-5 | 140-111-5 | 135-116-5 | 124-127-5 | 128-123-5 |
2013 Record | 132-114-10 | 118-128-10 | 123-123-10 | 111-135-10 | 128-118-10 |
2012 Record | 110-140-6 | 125-125-6 | 121-129-6 | 143-107-6 | 123-127-6 |
2011 Record | 121-128-7 | 134-115-7 | 124-125-7 | 123-126-7 | 127-122-7 |
2010 Record | 129-122-5 | 134-117-5 | 126-125-5 | 136-115-5 | 134-117-5 |
2009 Record | 123-130-3 | 132-121-3 | 131-122-3 | 130-123-3 | 126-127-3 |
2008 Record | 132-114-10 | 128-118-10 | 124-122-10 | 125-121-10 | 130-116-10 |
2007 Record | 127-120 | 118-129 | 127-120 | N/A | 130-117 |
2006 Record | 118-129 | N/A | 139-108 | N/A | N/A |
2005 Record | 121-126 | N/A | 127-120 | N/A | N/A |
2004 Record | 124-124 | N/A | 130-118 | N/A | N/A |
2003 Record | 121-126 | 118-129 | 124-123 | N/A | N/A |
2002 Record | 113-136 | 123-126 | 141-108 | N/A | N/A |
2001 Record | 124-113 | 117-120 | 118-119 | N/A | N/A |
2000 Record | 123-117 | 134-106 | 141-99 | N/A | N/A |
Unanimous/Majority Picks
This week we have five unanimous picks: the Bengals, Texans, Dolphins, Broncos and Panthers. Last year we went 23-28-4 on unanimous picks and 121-121-14 on majority picks (three or more writers).
Comments:
Writer | Comment |
---|---|
Erickson | I still can't shake that notion that the Bills are going to be truly terrible this year. I get that we shouldn't invest too much in the preseason results or even our assessment of offseason moves, but I feel like that this is a Cleveland-like purposeful tank job to accumulate many high-value draft picks the next two years... My perception is that neither Dallas nor Washington is all that strong, so I was surprised by their respective lines. Dallas is being treated as just as strong as Carolina, and I don't think that's true, and Washington is getting treated as if they'd be favorites on a neutral field against the Cardinals... I feel least confident about the Thursday game, the PIT-CLE game, and the stupid Giants are already annoying me, tricking me into thinking that this is a "value" pick. |
Pianowski | I'm on some of the ugly sides, almost reflexively. But it's not hard to sidle up to Cleveland, when you consider how unreliable the Steelers are as a road favorite. They love to play down to the level of their competition. |
Liss | I like the Chiefs getting the hook with extra prep time for Andy Reid, the Panthers laying only the customary three at home against a weak Cowboys team, the Ravens laying only a TD at home against Nathan Peterman and the Bengals getting the full three on the road against a shaky Colts squad. I also like the Saints as less than 10 point favorites at home against the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Bucs. |
Stopa | I'm most confident, for whatever that's worth, in the Bengals, Chargers, Panthers and Rams. The Colts D is devoid of talent on all levels, so getting points there is a gift... I have significant under bets on the season-long win totals of Cowboys and Raiders, and that was before the former's o-line imploded and the latter traded their best player. Week 1 feels like the start of the public, and Vegas, realizing how bad these two teams are. The Chiefs D profiles as a bottom five unit, whereas the Chargers are the AFC's most talented team. Patrick Mahomes will have some fun fantasy games, but this is a tough spot to start the year. I'd be really surprised if the Chargers don't win. |
Del Don | Week 1 is annually my favorite ATS, with this year no exception, as the sides came easily for me (for better or worse) on almost every game. The Broncos at home giving just a field goal to a Seattle team that was always vulnerable on the road even before the roster was devastated are my best bet, while others I like include the Ravens and Browns, though those lines have moved steadily since opening. |
The players:
• Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2016 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Weekly Rankings. Covers and roots for the Bengals.
• Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009, 2011, 2014 and 2017 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.
• Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and the Survivor column in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.
• Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, 2010, 2012 Staff Picks Champ, Writes Run 'N' Shoot. Roots for the Bills.
• Dalton Del Don: Fantasy Expert for Yahoo! Sports, 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the 49ers.