NFL Picks: Backing the Patriots

NFL Picks: Backing the Patriots

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

Congrats to Mark Stopa who won the playoff portion of the staff picks. Erickson, Pianow and me are tied for second. DDD probably should have called it a year after the regular season.

For the Super Bowl, we all like the Pats, and I've checked the archive going back to the Saints-Colts Super Bowl in early 2010 - it's the first unanimous Super Bowl pick we've had.

I'm the only one on the over, while Pianow, DDD and Erickson are barely under (with the exact same score), and Stopa is way under.

EricksonPianowskiLissStopaDel Don
Eagles +4.5 vs. PatriotsPatriotsPatriotsPatriotsPatriotsPatriots
Final Score27-2027-2031-2327-1327-20
Last Week's Record1-11-11-11-10-2
2017 Playoff Record5-55-55-57-32-8
Best Bet Record10-8-211-8-114-5-110-8-212-8
Unanimous Pick Record23-28-4
Majority Pick Record126-126-14
2016 Playoff Record6-55-66-54-76-5
2015 Playoff Record5-62-93-82-91-10
2014 Playoff Record10-15-69-24-79-2
2013 Playoff Record5-4-23-6-24-5-24-5-24-5-2
2012 Playoff Record4-6-15-5-16-4-14-6-18-2-1
2011 Playoff Record8-35-69-26-57-4
2010 Playoff Record6-55-65-67-48-3
2009 Playoff Record5-64-71-106-55-6
2008 Playoff Record6-55-65-68-34-7
2007 Playoff Record8-33-86-5N/A2-9
2006 Playoff Record7-4N/A4-7N/AN/A
2005 Playoff Record5-6N/A3-8N/AN/A
2004 Playoff Record6-5N/A4-7N/AN/A
Congrats to Mark Stopa who won the playoff portion of the staff picks. Erickson, Pianow and me are tied for second. DDD probably should have called it a year after the regular season.

For the Super Bowl, we all like the Pats, and I've checked the archive going back to the Saints-Colts Super Bowl in early 2010 - it's the first unanimous Super Bowl pick we've had.

I'm the only one on the over, while Pianow, DDD and Erickson are barely under (with the exact same score), and Stopa is way under.

EricksonPianowskiLissStopaDel Don
Eagles +4.5 vs. PatriotsPatriotsPatriotsPatriotsPatriotsPatriots
Final Score27-2027-2031-2327-1327-20
Last Week's Record1-11-11-11-10-2
2017 Playoff Record5-55-55-57-32-8
Best Bet Record10-8-211-8-114-5-110-8-212-8
Unanimous Pick Record23-28-4
Majority Pick Record126-126-14
2016 Playoff Record6-55-66-54-76-5
2015 Playoff Record5-62-93-82-91-10
2014 Playoff Record10-15-69-24-79-2
2013 Playoff Record5-4-23-6-24-5-24-5-24-5-2
2012 Playoff Record4-6-15-5-16-4-14-6-18-2-1
2011 Playoff Record8-35-69-26-57-4
2010 Playoff Record6-55-65-67-48-3
2009 Playoff Record5-64-71-106-55-6
2008 Playoff Record6-55-65-68-34-7
2007 Playoff Record8-33-86-5N/A2-9
2006 Playoff Record7-4N/A4-7N/AN/A
2005 Playoff Record5-6N/A3-8N/AN/A
2004 Playoff Record6-5N/A4-7N/AN/A
2003 Playoff Record6-5N/A4-7N/AN/A
2002 Playoff Record6-57-45-6N/AN/A
2001 Playoff Record6-4-17-3-14-6-1N/AN/A
2017 Record117-125-14128-114-14117-125-14119-123-1498-144-14
2016 Record133-102-5122-113-5115-120-5108-127-5123-112-5
2015 Record134-114-8120-128-8114-134-8127-121-8121-127-8
2014 Record123-128-5140-111-5135-116-5124-127-5128-123-5
2013 Record132-114-10118-128-10123-123-10111-135-10128-118-10
2012 Record110-140-6125-125-6121-129-6143-107-6123-127-6
2011 Record121-128-7134-115-7124-125-7123-126-7127-122-7
2010 Record129-122-5134-117-5126-125-5136-115-5134-117-5
2009 Record123-130-3132-121-3131-122-3130-123-3126-127-3
2008 Record132-114-10128-118-10124-122-10125-121-10130-116-10
2007 Record127-120118-129127-120N/A130-117
2006 Record118-129N/A139-108N/AN/A
2005 Record121-126N/A127-120N/AN/A
2004 Record124-124N/A130-118N/AN/A
2003 Record121-126118-129124-123N/AN/A
2002 Record113-136123-126141-108N/AN/A
2001 Record124-113117-120118-119N/AN/A
2000 Record123-117134-106141-99N/AN/A

Unanimous/Majority Picks

This week, the entire staff is on the Patriots. Last week, we had no unanimous picks. We were 23-28-4 on unanimous picks during the year. We went 1-1 on majority picks (three or more writers) last week to bring our season record to 126-126-14. Last year we went 27-22-2 on unanimous picks and 138-124-5 on majority picks.

Comments:

WriterComment
EricksonI struggled a little bit with this one, as underestimating the Eagles has been costly to me in the playoffs. But I think that the Patriots had two weeks to prepare will help them more than it will help the Eagles - well, clearly it will if for no other reason than getting Gronk cleared to play.
PianowskiOld Brady is through, like they say, but New England kicks nine field goals.
LissThe Eagles were seven-point dogs in the hypothetical matchup two weeks ago, and while Nick Foles showed us his ceiling last week, the bigger difference between him and Tom Brady is floor. The Pats are also well suited to exploit the Eagles defense with short, quick throws and a tempo that doesn't allow them to substitute. Foles and the Eagles should move the ball consistently, too, but someone's going to crack, and I'm betting it's not Brady. And just in case we get trough Foles, I might consider the Pats minus 21.5 at 8:1. It's not probable, but blowouts (see last week's Eagles-Vikings game) happen all the time, so it's certainly plausible.
StopaI'm astounded this line is so low. A few weeks ago, Vegas treated Philly as six points worse than Atlanta, and Philly was fortunate to win. Now they're only 4.5 points worse than the GOAT with two weeks of prep? Why? Because they blew out an emotionally spent Vikings team? I just don't see it. The one advantage you'd think Philly has, on the d-line, is neutralized by a Pats o-line that mostly kept the Jags vaunted D from getting to Brady. This line should be seven or eight, not 4.5. As for Tom Brady, he's going to be MVP. That's how it works in today's NFL, where QBs reign supreme, especially when he's playing Nick Foles. That's why I pounded a "Brady for MVP" prop bet when it came out at +160 in one book (insane when the money line was Pats -200 and Brady is easily 80% to win MVP if Pats win), betting on it so hard that book moved it down to even (which is still too high). Pats 27-13.
Del Don A rough year ATS comes mercifully to an end, giving you one final chance to fade me. The Eagles clearly deserve to be here, and Nick Foles has played far better than expected in big moments. But this is a team with a backup quarterback that allowed 24 passing touchdowns on the year and has struggled against offenses that run no huddle. New England obviously has experience in its favor and as always enters with an advantage coaching (although Doug Pederson has been great going for it on fourth downs this year), and they even come in relatively healthy (Rob Gronkowski missed last year's Super Bowl). While not off a key number (at least not yet), the line has moved around two full points since opening, so the public appears to be on Philly. The Eagles are coming off a dominant win, while New England just barely got by Blake Bortles, but there's also a recipe for a blowout here, and once the ball is kicked off, you'll be happy your money is on Brady and Belichick. Patriots 27-20

The players:

• Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2016 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Weekly Rankings. Covers and roots for the Bengals.

• Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009, 2011, 2014 and 2017 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.

• Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and the Survivor column in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.

• Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, 2010, 2012 Staff Picks Champ, Writes Run 'N' Shoot. Roots for the Bills.

• Dalton Del Don: Fantasy Expert for Yahoo! Sports, 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the 49ers.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Liss
Chris Liss was RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio from 2001-2022.
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