NFL Game Previews: Week 17 Matchups

EARLY SUNDAY

Miami (+4) at Baltimore, o/u 47 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Dolphins have to win here if they want a shot at the top seed in the AFC, and a first-round bye that they might really need as injuries keep piling up. Tua Tagovailoa is working through both quad and thumb issues. Raheem Mostert's chance at 20 rushing TDs (a mark no one's reached since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006, when he set the record with 28) could be hampered by multiple lower-body injuries. De'Von Achane continues to manage a sore toe, while Tyreek Hill played through a sprained ankle last week. Jaylen Waddle won't play at all due to his ankle. That's just the skill players – nearly the entire offensive line is playing through some kind of bumps and bruises. That's an awful lot of talent at less than 100 percent, and an awful lot of players who make a living off their speed dealing with lower-body injuries. A Miami win or a Buffalo loss this week locks up the AFC East title for the Dolphins, but if not the two teams will meet in south Florida in the regular-season finale for all the marbles.

Talk about a statement game. The Ravens walked into San Francisco last week and dismantled the Niners, putting Baltimore in the driver's seat for that first-round bye. They've won five straight games by an average score of 29-17, with the Chargers being the only sub-.500 team they faced during that stretch. Heck, the other four (including Cincy, the Rams and Jacksonville) could all end up in the playoffs. The defense has been surging, producing multiple takeaways in three of those five wins, while the offense has survived so far without dynamic rookie Keaton Mitchell in the backfield. A first-round bye could be big for the Ravens too, as John Harbaugh hinted this week that Mark Andrews might even be ahead of schedule in his recovery, putting a playoff return on the table.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: RB Mostert (questionable, ankle), RB Achane (questionable, toe), WR Hill (questionable, ankle), WR Waddle (out, ankle), WR Robbie Chosen (questionable, concussion), S Jevon Holland (questionable, knee)
BAL injuries: WR Zay Flowers (questionable, calf), TE Andrews (IR, ankle), S Kyle Hamilton (questionable, knee)

MIA DFS targets: none
BAL DFS targets: Ravens (first in takeaways, first in sacks)

MIA DFS fades: Tagovailoa (BAL first in passing DVOA, first in YPA allowed, first in passing TDs allowed), Cedrick Wilson (BAL first in DVOA vs. WR2)
BAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: BAL is eighth in red-zone conversions at 59.7 percent (37-for-62), and tied for first in red-zone trips; MIA is 26th in red-zone defense at 63.6 percent (28-for-44)

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop: Mostert picks up 80 yards and a score, while Achane adds 50 yards. Tagovailoa throws for 280 yards and three TDs, two to Tyreek (who tops 100 yards) and one to Braxton Berrios. Gus Edwards churns out 80 yards as well with two touchdowns, while Justice Hill delivers 60 yards. Lamar Jackson throws for 250 yards and two scores, hitting Flowers and Isaiah Likely, while also running in his first TD since Week 7. Ravens 35-34

New England (+12) at Buffalo, o/u 41 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

It's always admirable when a locker room refuses to tank, even though every single player on the roster has to know their chances of winning next season would be better if they did. The Patriots have won two of their last three, playing spoiler against the Steelers and Broncos, and they gave Kansas City a tough time for a half or so in between as well. That leaves them picking fourth in next year's draft if things don't change over the next two weeks (which they probably will) – too low for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye without trading up, but maybe too high a pick to use on a Jayden Daniels or whoever else shoots up boards with a great Combine. Bailey Zappe has posted solid numbers in those wins, but not-so-solid numbers in the two losses he was under center for, and since replacing Mac Jones he's got a 68.4 percent completion rate, 7.0 YPA and 6:2 TD:INT. Maybe if Bill Belichick is still around, that performance is good enough to give him the edge on being the Week 1 starter in 2024, but it's hard to see him being anything but a backup for a new coaching staff. It's not like he's had a lot to work with, of course. Hunter Henry's been his only semi-reliable target, while he had Rhamondre Stevenson in the backfield for all of 16 snaps. The defense is undergoing its usual second-half resurgence, but this is still an offense you don't want to have to count on for 20 or more points.

The Bills might finally be taking the season seriously, although maybe too late to do much more than secure a wild-card spot. They've won three straight since their late bye, taking down Dallas and Kansas City, and if Baltimore can get the job done against Miami this week, Buffalo will have a chance to steal the AFC East title in Week 18. The passing game has suddenly gotten stuck in neutral, with Josh Allen accounting for more rushing TDs (four) than passing TDs (three) during the win streak, but James Cook has picked up the slack with 432 scrimmage yards over that stretch. That was understandable against a tough secondary like the Cowboys, but Allen's failure to light up the Chargers is a little more concerning. The QB's already tied his career high with 15 interceptions, so it's maybe understandable that interim OC Joe Brady is trying to limit the chaos he can cause, but it's hard to imagine this team getting very in the postseason if Allen doesn't step up.

The Skinny

NE injuries: RB Ezekiel Elliott (questionable, illness), RB Stevenson (IR, ankle), WR JuJu Smith Schuster (questionable, ankle), TE Henry (questionable, knee), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, knee), S Jabrill Peppers (questionable, hamstring)
BUF injuries: LB Terrel Bernard (questionable, ankle)

NE DFS targets: none
BUF DFS targets: Khalil Shakir (NE 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

NE DFS fades: none
BUF DFS fades: Cook (NE second in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed), Stefon Diggs (NE second in DVOA vs. WR1)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 6-6, average score 23-19 BUF, average margin of victory 13 points. BUF had won four straight meetings by an average score of 35-18 prior to a 29-25 victory for NE in Week 7
Key stat: BUF is first in third-down conversions at 49.2 percent; NE is eighth in third-down defense at 36.7 percent

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-30s, 25-35 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Elliott manages 60 yards. Zappe throws for 200 yards and two touchdowns, hitting DeVante Parker and Pharaoh Brown. Cook gains 80 yards and a score. Allen throws for 270 yards and two TDs, one each to Shakir and Gabe Davis, while also running in another score of his own. Bills 34-17

Atlanta (+3) at Chicago, o/u 38 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Falcons never fail to keep everyone on their toes, at least. One week after managing just seven points against the Panthers, they erupt for a season-high 29 against the Colts to keep their playoff hopes alive. In perhaps the most obliviously ironic statement of the season, Arthur Smith went on record with, "I've been around this league for long enough to know what's supposed to happen usually doesn't," which should probably come with a trigger warning for anyone who had shares in Bijan Robinson, Drake London or Kyle Pitts. At 7-8, Atlanta basically needs Tampa Bay to lose their remaining two games while the Falcons beat the Saints in Week 18 to claim an NFC South crown, with the outcome of this game actually mattering very little in that equation. Yes, they can lose to the Bears and still win the division at 8-9. It's the NFC South. Of course they can. (They'd need even more help to squeak into a wild-card spot, but that's not off the table yet either.) Taylor Heinicke was passable last week in his return to the starting job, but he probably needs to do more to get the team into the postseason, because Younghoe Koo can't kick five field goals every week. Can he?

With the Panthers' first-round pick in their pocket, the Bears have been free to actually try and have won three of their last four, putting a dent in the Vikings' playoff odds in the process. The defense has led the charge, holding four straight opponents to 20 points or less and limiting them to 306 yards of offense or less in the three victories, and the Chicago D had been stirring up memories of 1985 with 14 takeaways and 14 sacks over a five-game stretch. Picking up Montez Sweat turned out to be one of the best moves any team made at the trade deadline, and he's racked ups six sacks himself in seven games as Bear. The offense remains limited, though. Justin Fields has four passing TDs in five games, plus a weak 60.0 percent completion rate and 5.9 YPA, since returning to the lineup, and while his teammates keep talking him up, it's becoming almost impossible to imagine the front office passing on a QB in the 2024 draft. Matt Eberflus and OC Luke Getsy also seem to pick the name of their starting RB out of a hat every week; it was Khalil Herbert last time out, but Herbert got seven touches to Roschon Johnson's 12 the game before that, and D'Onta Foreman was the only back in double digits in Week 14. Herbert's big numbers against the Colts might earn him a repeat, though.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
CHI injuries: WR Darnell Mooney (out, concussion), TE Cole Kmet (questionable, knee)

ATL DFS targets: none
CHI DFS targets: Johnson (ATL 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB)

ATL DFS fades: none
CHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: ATL is 26th in red-zone conversions at 48.8 percent (21-for-43); CHI is 32nd in red-zone defense at 72.5 percent (29-for-40)

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-30s, 10-15 mph wind, 25-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Robinson gains 80 scrimmage yards and a receiving score. Heinicke throws for 210 yards and a second TD to Jonnu Smith. Herbert leads the CHI backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown, while Johnson also hauls in a receiving score. Fields throws for under 200 yards and runs in a TD himself. Bears 21-20

Tennessee (+3.5) at Houston, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Titans are 5-10 and eliminated from the postseason, but they were oh-so-close to salvaging their season – they've lost three of their last four, but all three were by a field goal and two came in OT to the Colts and Texans. Win those two divisional games, and Tennessee's right in the hunt for the AFC South crown. Ryan Tannehill's cameo last week served as a good reminder why he lost the starting gig in the first place, and Will Levis should be back under center now that he's over his ankle injury. Derrick Henry is (potentially) ending his Titans tenure in style, running for one TD last week and throwing for another, the fourth passing touchdown of the big back's career. He's also produced double-digit rushing scores in six straight seasons – the only players in NFL history with longer streaks are LaDainian Tomlinson (nine) and Adrian Peterson (seven), which is pretty elite company. The Titans are just trying to play spoiler here, but they could well do it, as they've given the Texans fits in Houston over the last few years.

The AFC South currently features a three-way tie at the top between the Jaguars, Colts and Texans, all at 8-7, but only one of those teams will have their Week 1 starting quarterback under center in Week 17. C.J. Stroud makes his return after missing the last two games with a concussion, and if you include the game against the Jets in which he got taken out, Houston's averaged only 15.7 points a game without a healthy Stroud for four quarters. You'd almost think Davis Mills and Case Keenum were huge downgrades or something. The rookie's return won't help a banged-up defense, but he's more than capable of slinging his way out of any holes that get dug for him, and other than Tank Dell, he'll have all his usual targets available. With Jacksonville fading fast and Indy stumbling down the stretch, the path is wide open for Stroud to get his team into the playoffs and cement his status as the Next Big Thing in a conference where most of the last Big Things have had rough seasons. (Seriously – Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert won't even be playing in the postseason, Trevor Lawrence has gotten wrecked over the last few weeks, Josh Allen's become a bit of a turnover machine, and Patrick Mahomes is having the worst statistical season of his career. It might as well be Stroud's time.)

The Skinny

TEN injuries: WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (IR, hand), DE Jeffery Simmons (IR, knee)
HOU injuries: EDGE Will Anderson (questionable, ankle), EDGE Jonathan Greenard (out, ankle)

TEN DFS targets: none
HOU DFS targets: Nico Collins (TEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Noah Brown (TEN 31st in DVOA vs. deep throws)

TEN DFS fades: Titans DST (31st in takeaways, HOU t-2nd in giveaways)
HOU DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 TEN, average score 24-23 TEN, average margin of victory seven points. The last seven meetings have been decided by single digits. TEN has won four straight meetings at NRG Stadium, with HOU's last victory at home coming in Week 12 of the 2018 season
Key stat: TEN is 31st in red-zone conversions at 45.5 percent (20-for-44); HOU is 19th in red-zone defense at 56.0 percent (28-for-50)

The Scoop: Henry thunders for 90 yards and a TD. Levis throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, hitting DeAndre Hopkins and Chris Moore. Devin Singletary picks up 70 scrimmage yards. Stroud throws for 330 yards and three scores in his return, two to Collins (who tops 100 yards) and one to Brown. Texans 27-21

Las Vegas (+3) at Indianapolis, o/u 44 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Do I think the Raiders will make the playoffs? No, no, I do not. They need to win out, and get a lot help, to either dethrone Kansas City as AFC West champs or sneak into a wild-card spot. Am I rooting for interim coach Antonio Pierce to get them there? You betcha. Vegas' improbable win over Andy Reid's crew last week was fueled by two defensive TDs in seven seconds just before halftime, but it still counts. The team is coming up with unlikely heroes every week, from Zamir White's 145 rushing yards against KC to Aidan O'Connell's four TD passes in that demolition of the Chargers, and their final two opponents aren't exactly elite (they face the Broncos in Week 18), so why not? DC Patrick Graham's unit have been the real stars though – those two scores were part of a 7:0 turnover advantage over the course of the Raiders' little two-game win streak. If they keep stealing the ball, and O'Connell keeps refusing to it back, anything's possible.

The Colts' playoff scenarios are so convoluted that every single game involving an AFC team Sunday will impact their odds in some way, but the short version is that if they win out, they're probably in, either as AFC South champs or in a wild-card spot. (Unless the Jags, Bills and Bengals all win their remaining games too, and the Steelers win one of two...) Indy isn't playing like a team that deserves a postseason spot, though. Ugly losses to Cincy and Atlanta have been sandwiched around a big win over Pittsburgh, and it seems like every time they figure out how to fix some leak in their performance, the boat springs two more. Jonathan Taylor did find the end zone last week in his return from a thumb injury, but his 2.4 YPC and lack of usage as a receiver suggests he may not have been 100 percent. Michael Pittman's also banged up, and Gardner Minshew is getting dangerously close to the zone where he tries to do too much because he can't or won't trust anyone else to do it. He hasn't thrown multiple INTs since Week 6, but it wouldn't be a shock if this is the week it all falls apart for him.

The Skinny

LV injuries: RB Josh Jacobs (doubtful, quadriceps), TE Michael Mayer (out, toe)
IND injuries: RB Zack Moss (out, forearm), WR Pittman (questionable, concussion/shoulder)

LV DFS targets: Jakobi Meyers (IND 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
IND DFS targets: none

LV DFS fades: none
IND DFS fades: none

Key stat: LV is 27th in third-down conversions at 34.6 percent; IND is ninth in third-down defense at 37.3 percent

The Scoop: White leads the LV backfield with 110 combined yards and a touchdown. O'Connell throws for 210 yards and two TDs, one each to Meyers and Davante Adams. Taylor also churns out 110 scrimmage yards and a score. Minshew throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, finding Pittman and Will Mallory. Colts 27-21

Carolina (+7) at Jacksonville, o/u 38 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

If I'm not mistaken, the Panthers will lock up the top pick in the 2024 draft (for the Bears) if they lose here, as the Cardinals will have a tougher strength of schedule even if both teams end up at 3-14. Carolina can still have an impact on who wins the two South divisions though, and last week's performance by Bryce Young might have been the first real sign he's headed in the right direction – his 8.7 YPA was a career high, as were his 312 passing yards. Young's tossed only one INT over the last five games, even if last week's two touchdowns were his only ones during that stretch, and he's wrapping up his first season with games against two bottom-five secondaries in terms of passing yards allowed and bottom-10 secondaries in terms of QB rating against. A big finish would offer the Panthers a spark of hope heading into another offseason coaching search, but there still isn't much talent around him, and a lot of work to be done on the roster.

Four straight losses have left things looking bleak for the Jaguars, and now they face the prospect of having to end that slump without Trevor Lawrence. The QB is finally being forced to the sidelines – a high-ankle sprain and a concussion couldn't do it, but an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder did, and it can be left as a discussion for the offseason whether playing through the first two issues contributed to the third. The weight of the season is now on C.J. Beathard's shoulders. Gulp. If Jacksonville can win out they'll still claim the AFC South title, and the Jags have both two games against teams already eliminated from the postseason (facing the Titans in Week 18) and enough talent around Beathard that he can just drive the bus for a week or two, but the play of the defense during the losing streak has been as big a factor as Lawrence's health. The unit's coughed up 29.5 points a game and over 400 yards of offense over the last month, and that would be an awfully deep hole for Beathard to have to climb out of.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: LB Frankie Luvu (questionable, quadriceps)
JAC injuries: QB Lawrence (out, shoulder), WR Christian Kirk (IR, groin), WR Zay Jones (questionable, hamstring)

CAR DFS targets: none
JAC DFS targets: Travis Etienne (CAR 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed), Jaguars DST (t-3rd in takeaways, CAR 28th in sacks allowed)

CAR DFS fades: none
JAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR is 23rd in red-zone conversions at 50.0 percent (18-for-36); JAC is 12th in red-zone defense at 53.1 percent (26-for-49)

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop: Chuba Hubbard scrapes together 50 yards. Young throws for under 200 yards and a TD to DJ Chark. Etienne racks up 80 yards and a score. Beathard throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram. Jaguars 21-13

L.A. Rams at N.Y. Giants (+6), o/u 42 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Winners of five of their last six, the Rams have not just soared above .500, they can clinch a wild-card spot with a win and either a Seahawks loss to the Steelers, or a Packers-Vikings tie to wrap up the week. That would leave them not having to worry about Week 18 and a trip to San Francisco, which is probably for the best. Kyren Williams continues to be the engine of the Rams' offense, and over five games since coming off IR he's erupted for 688 scrimmage yards and five total TDs. With a strong running game to play off of, Matthew Stafford has tossed multiple touchdowns in all five of those contests while tossing only one INT. The defense has been more solid than great, but as long as all the key personnel on the other side of the ball stay healthy, that's probably good enough, and they could prove to be a tough out against the Lions or Eagles or whoever they'd face in the first round.

The 5-10 Giants put a bit of a scare into Philly last week, but they're currently staring at the fifth overall pick in the 2024 draft and have a chance to climb higher if they don't get too frisky over the last couple weeks of the season. Tyrod Taylor reclaimed the starting QB job last week, and while he probably won't be getting any sandwiches named after him any time soon, he should be at least a more reliable option than Tommy DeVito. Saquon Barkley is the only real threat on offense, but the defense has been showing some life lately, producing multiple takeaways in five of the last six games. That's their most realistic path to an upset here.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: WR Puka Nacua (questionable, hip), LB Ernest Jones (questionable, illness)
NYG injuries: WR Wan'Dale Robinson (questionable, quadriceps)

LAR DFS targets: Williams (NYG 31st in YPC allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed)
NYG DFS targets: none

LAR DFS fades: none
NYG DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYG are 30th in red-zone conversions at 45.7 percent (16-for-35); LAR are t-15th in red-zone defense at 53.5 percent (23-for-45)

Weather notes: 5-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Williams dashes for 110 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Stafford throws for 270 yards and two more TDs, both to Cooper Kupp (who tops 100 yards). Barkley picks up 60 yards. Taylor throws for under 200 yards but hits Darren Waller for a touchdown. Rams 31-13

Arizona (+10.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 48 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Coming into the season, the Cardinals were widely expected to be the worst team in the league, and they've largely held up their end of that, likely headed for a 3-14 finish and the second overall pick in next year's draft. The front office hasn't really tipped their hand which way they're going to go with regard to Kyler Murray, but over the last four games – now that he's had a chance to shake off any rust – he's posted a meager 62.1 percent completion rate, 5:2 TD:INT and 5.8 YPA. To be fair, there's only so much any QB is going to be able to do when Trey McBride is his top target, but those still aren't numbers that are going to do much more than reduce the return the Cards might get for him in a trade. James Conner's been the guy keeping the offense afloat with 306 scrimmage yards and four TDs over the last three games, but the defense has coughed up over 400 yards to four of its last five opponents, including Justin Fields and the Bears last week. In theory Arizona could rise to the occasion here and rally for Jonathan Gannon against his former employers, but it seems more likely the team will give Philly a free pass to a potential NFC East title.

If the Cowboys lose to the Lions on Saturday night, the Eagles can lock up a division title with a win here. They'll want to win anyway to put that three-game skid further behind them and keep alive the possibility of claiming the top seed in the NFC, but might as well celebrate a week earlier if your can. Philly didn't look a whole lot better in last week's win over the Giants though, jumping out to a big lead at halftime only to let a team quarterbacked by Tyrod Taylor back into it. (No offense to Taylor there, but that's not exactly the hallmark of a Super Bowl contender.) The defense remains a sore spot for the Eagles, and while the Darius Slay-less secondary was the big issue early, even the run defense has begun to wear down in recent weeks. A team with Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith is capable of out-scoring anybody at any time, but at the moment, it seems like their only path to victory, as the other side of the ball can't seem to prevent the other team from getting into the end zone.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: QB Murray (questionable, illness), WR Marquise Brown (IR, heel)
PHI injuries: LB Zach Cunningham (doubtful, knee)

ARI DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: Hurts (ARI 31st in passing DVOA), D'Andre Swift (ARI 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Brown (ARI 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Dallas Goedert (ARI 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

ARI DFS fades: none
PHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: PHI is second in third-down conversions at 48.8 percent; ARI is 32nd in third-down defense at 47.3 percent

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Conner piles up 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Murray throws for under 200 yards but hits McBride for one score while also running in a TD. Swift erupts for 140 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Hurts throws for 320 yards and two scores, one each to Brown (who tops 100 yards) and Goedert, and he adds to his NFL-record rushing TD total. Eagles 38-21

New Orleans (+3) at Tampa Bay, o/u 42 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Saints left things too late last week against the Rams, and as a result they need to win out and get some help if they're going to make the playoffs. Derek Carr had another solid performance though, and he's got an 8:2 TD:INT and 72.3 percent completion rate over the last three games, albeit with a tepid 7.0 YPA. The latter is particularly odd considering he has two dangerous deep threats at his disposal in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, but OC Pete Carmichael has been dinking and dunking for a long time and isn't going to change his ways now. The New Orleans defense has basically been a gatekeeper this season, shutting down weak offenses like the Panthers, Giants and Patriots but getting lit up by even the Rams and Jaguars, and Baker Mayfield tossed three TDs against them in their first meeting this season. In fact, looking back at their schedule, the only team the Saints have beaten all year that currently has a winning record is the 8-7 Colts.

The hottest team in the NFC? It's actually the Bucs, who have won four straight games by an average score of 29-19 to put themselves in position to claim their third straight NFC South crown with a win in this one. Now, that win streak hasn't seen them beat anybody good – a hobbled Jaguars don't count – but this is the NFC South, so you take what you can get. Mayfield's been looking like a viable NFL starting QB for a while now, throwing multiple touchdowns in seven of the last nine games and posting an 18:4 TD:INT, 63.6 percent completion rate and 7.5 YPA over that stretch. Those aren't elite numbers by any means, but they're more than adequate for a team that's strong in other areas. That's... not exactly the Bucs. Rachaad White's emerged in the backfield and Mike Evans is seemingly ageless, but the secondary let Desmond Ridder light it up for 347 passing yards a couple weeks ago, and don't forget that it was the Tampa Bay game that really cemented the legend of C.J. Stroud (470 yards, five TDs, one game-winning touchdown drive with 46 seconds left on the clock.) Carr may not pull a Stroud, but he should at least be able to pull a Ridder.

The Skinny

NO injuries: RB Alvin Kamara (questionable, illness), RB Kendre Miller (questionable, ankle), WR Michael Thomas (IR, knee)
TB injuries: EDGE Shaquil Barrett (out, groin)

NO DFS targets: none
TB DFS targets: none

NO DFS fades: none
TB DFS fades: White (NO second in passing DVOA vs. RB)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 7-5 NO, average score 25-22 NO, average margin of victory 12 points. NO had won four straight meetings at Raymond James Stadium prior to a 17-16 TB victory in Week 13 of last season. TB has won three straight meetings
Key stat: NO is t-19th in red-zone conversions at 52.9 percent (27-for-51); TB is fourth in red-zone defense at 43.1 percent 22-for-51)

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop: Kamara plays and gains 80 scrimmage yards. Carr throws for 260 yards and two TDs, both to Olave (who tops 100 yards). White manages 70 yards. Mayfield throws for 280 yards and two scores, one each to Chris Godwin and Trey Palmer, and a Lavonte David fumble return to the house ends up being the difference. Buccaneers 27-23

San Francisco at Washington (+13.5), o/u 48.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The 49ers' bandwagon cleared out a bit last week, for the second time this season, but there's no reason to dismiss them as a real threat to win the Super Bowl just because of one off night. Yeah, Brock Purdy tossed four INTs against a tough Baltimore secondary. That equalled his total from the prior seven games combined. To put a little more perspective on the kind of season Purdy's having, in the worst game of his NFL career he still posted an 8.0 YPA. If there's a cause for concern, it's with the defense. The Niners let only one team (the Bengals, with a briefly healthy Joe Burrow under center) put up more than 23 points against them through Week 14, but have now given up 62 total points to the Cardinals and Ravens over consecutive weeks. Injuries in the secondary are piling up, and Arik Armstead's absence has been felt against the run. When the offense is healthy and not giving the ball away, 30 points has proven to be about their floor, so the defensive regression just makes things more interesting against tougher opponents, which they decidedly don't have this week. Like all the other top teams in the NFC though, the Niners now have significant incentive to get that first-round bye, if only to get another week to heal up.

In what will probably be the final LOL of Ron Rivera's stint with the Commanders, he named Jacoby Brissett his starting quarterback for the final two games of the season, only for the veteran QB to then mention that, by the way, his hamstring wasn't feeling quite right. Brissett had "earned' the job by being better than Sam Howell the last couple weeks, even though that's been a very low bar to clear as the team has lost six straight. Howell figures to get competition in the offseason, but it might be more than just competition if Arizona wins one of its last two games and lets Washington sneak into the second overall pick. Barring that scenario bringing Drake Maye or whoever to town, the Commanders might have to look at free agency or a trade, which means... Russell Wilson? Kyler Murray? Justin Fields? Joe Flacco? Kirk Cousins? A Bill Belichick/Jimmy Garoppolo package deal? So many options.

The Skinny

SF injuries: WR Jauan Jennings (out, concussion), S Ji'Ayir Brown (out, knee)
WAS injuries: QB Brissett (questionable, hamstring), RB Chris Rodriguez (IR, ankle)

SF DFS targets: Purdy (WAS 32nd in passing DVOA, 31st in net passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Deebo Samuel (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), 49ers DST (second in takeaways, WAS 28th in giveaways, 30th in sacks allowed)
WAS DFS targets: none

SF DFS fades: none
WAS DFS fades: none

Key stat: SF is fourth in third-down conversions at 47.5 percent; WAS is 23rd in third-down defense at 40.6 percent

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Christian McCaffrey erupts for 150 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns, two on the ground and one through the air. Purdy throws for 370 yards and three more scores, two to Samuel (who tops 100 yards) and one to George Kittle. Brian Robinson grinds out 50 yards. Howell gets the start for WAS and throws for 220 yards, tossing two TDs to Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel but also throwing a pick-six to Charvarius Ward while getting sacked five times. 49ers 49-20

LATE SUNDAY

Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Seattle, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The AFC wild-card scenarios are still a massive tangle, which at least gives the Steelers the advantage of not being tempted to scoreboard-watch and just take care of business as best they can. Mason Rudolph is expected to make his second straight start after last week's season-saving win over the Bengals, and so long as the opposition doesn't bother to tackle George Pickens again, he should be fine. The defense returning to form despite some key injuries was the more important factor against Cincy, however; the unit had managed only one takeaway total during Pittsburgh's three-game losing streak prior to that win, and last week was the first time the team had won the turnover battle since Week 11, and the first time it had generated multiple takeaways since Week 10.

The Seahawks' yo-yo season is on the upswing again, as two straight 20-17 victories have them in a wild-card spot and with their destiny in their own hands – win their final two games (they head to Arizona in Week 18), and they're in. Geno Smith returned from a two-game absence last week and looked good in leading two fourth-quarter TD drives to secure the road win, while DK Metcalf continued his late-season surge with his sixth score in the last six games. Lumen Field has become a tough place for other teams again, as Seattle's gone 5-2 at home this season and hasn't lost to a non-divisional opponent. Statistically, the Seahawks haven't done anything particularly well this year – they're 19th in PPG for, and 23rd in PPG against – but all their losses have come against teams that carried winning records into Week 17. Wait, Pittsburgh's 8-7. Hmm. Well, they also have home wins over the (pre-Flacco) Browns and the Eagles, so it's not like they've exclusively padded their record against also-rans. Seattle still looks like one of the easiest possible opponents for the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the NFC.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: QB Kenny Pickett (questionable, ankle), LB Elandon Roberts (out, pectoral), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (out, knee)
SEA injuries: RB Kenneth Walker (questionable, shoulder), WR Metcalf (questionable, lower back), LB Jordyn Brooks (out, ankle)

PIT DFS targets: Pickens (SEA 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
SEA DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: none
SEA DFS fades: none

Key stat: PIT is 27th in red-zone conversions at 48.5 percent (16-for-33), and t-31st in red-zone trips; SEA is 27th in red-zone defense at 63.8 percent (30-for-47)

Weather notes: 75-85 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Najee Harris bangs out 70 yards and a score. Rudolph throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to Pickens, but also tosses a pick-six to Julian Love. Zach Charbonnet leads the SEA backfield with 80 combined yards. Smith throws for 220 yards and two TDs, one each to Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Seahawks 24-17

LA Chargers (+5.5) at Denver, o/u 38.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

New coach, same old Chargers. Last week saw the offense fail to complete drives – they scored six times, and five of them were field goals – and the defense fail to stop a game-winning march to an inevitable win for the Bills over the final minutes of the fourth quarter. At 5-10 and with two games remaining against teams still theoretically trying to make the postseason, the Bolts could well find themselves with a top-five pick in next year's draft, which should make the open coaching job that much more enticing. Imagine if Marvin Harrison Jr. somehow falls into their laps. In the here and now though, they've lost six of their last seven, and they scored a whopping six points even with Herbert under center in that one win. Easton Stick has actually been pretty decent at QB, but he'll have almost no one to throw to. At least interim coach Giff Smith stopped the silly mind games with Austin Ekeler.

If nothing else, you have to admire Sean Payton's, uhh, gumption. At 7-8, the Broncos are still alive in the AFC wild-card chase if they can win out, and while a lot would have to go their way in other games to pull it off, it's most realistic results. Heck, there's even a path for them to climb up to the No. 6 seed that would require the Bills to get Bailey Zappe'd. So what does Payton do? He benches Russell Wilson in favor of Jarrett Stidham. The thing is, while the move was almost certainly to avoid having some guarantees lock in on Wilson's contract ahead of an offseason departure, it's not like the veteran QB was playing well enough to say there's no on-field merit to the move. The former Seahawk hasn't posted a YPA above 7.4 in any game since Week 4 or thrown for 300 yards since Week 3, and Denver has lost three of its last four with him at the helm after getting Zappe'd at home themselves last week. So sure, Stidham, why not. Like Stick, his receiving corps is at far less than 100 percent, but the 27-year-old was put in this exact same position with the Raiders in Week 17 of last season and had a huge game against the Niners. Of course, Las Vegas also lost that game.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: WR Keenan Allen (out, heel), WR Joshua Palmer (out, concussion), LB Kenneth Murray (doubtful, shoulder)
DEN injuries: WR Courtland Sutton (out, concussion), WR Jerry Jeudy (questionable, illness), WR Marvin Mims (questionable, hamstring), TE Greg Dulcich (IR-R, foot)

LAC DFS targets: Ekeler (DEN 30th in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed), Jalen Guyton (DEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Gerald Everett (DEN 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
DEN DFS targets: Samaje Perine (LAC 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

LAC DFS fades: none
DEN DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 DEN, average score 21-21 (21.3-20.7 DEN), average margin of victory eight points. DEN has won four straight meetings at Mile High by an average score of 28-23
Key stat: LAC are 15th in third-down conversions at 39.6 percent; DEN is second in third-down defense at 32.6 percent

Weather notes: 20-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ekeler dashes for 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Stick throws for 250 yards and a score to Everett. Javonte Williams busts out for 100 yards and a touchdown, while Perine catches a TD pass as well. Stidham throws for 220 yards and a second touchdown to Jeudy. Broncos 21-20

Cincinnati (+7) at Kansas City, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Bengals pretty much need to win out to grab a wild-card spot after flopping against the Steelers last week, but if Pittsburgh loses this week in Seattle, Cincy will still be alive no matter what they do in Kansas City. Jake Browning doubled his INT total on the season in the loss but still completed two-thirds of his passes and topped 300 yards for the third time in his last four starts, so the blame doesn't rest solely at his feet. In five games since taking over as the starting QB, Browning's posted a 73.7 percent completion rate and an 8.9 YPA, and while I can't help but wonder if he's going to go all Brock Osweiler once he gets that bag from another team, right now he's looking pretty dang good. Browning's also 3-0 against teams that aren't the Steelers, for what that's worth. Joe Mixon's got four rushing TDs and a 3.9 YPC in those three wins, but zero TDs against Pittsburgh with a 3.1 YPC, so maybe Mike Tomlin just has the Bengals' number. If they do get through this one, Cincy could be facing a Cleveland team in Week 18 that's locked into their playoff seed and will be looking to rest key players.

You know something's very wrong in Kansas City when it's Week 17 and the team hasn't clinched an AFC West title yet. With a 2-4 record since its bye, Andy Reid's crew has struggled to find a formula that works consistently on offense, failing to score even 20 points in any of those losses. The team hasn't amassed 400 yards of offense since Week 7, and that was against the Chargers so it hardly counts. Patrick Mahomes has already thrown a career-high 14 INTs as he tries to make things happen, and his 6.9 YPA on the year is by far a career low. Maybe letting Eric Bieniemy go to Washington last offseason was a bigger deal than it seemed at the time. Rashee Rice has already set a franchise rookie record for receptions and could claim the yardage mark too with a big finish to the campaign, but curiously, his rise has coincided with a slide from Travis Kelce, who's on pace for his lowest target volume since 2017. Blame it on Kelce's extra-curriculars if you want to be the foolish one, but from here it looks like the coaching staff just doesn't know how to keep two guys productive at the same time – which was an issue OC Matt Nagy had when he was calling the shots in Chicago too. If it weren't for the defense, Kansas City would be in real trouble, but as it is the team may have fallen into a formula that generally travels pretty well during the postseason – shut down the opposition, lean on the running game, and generate just enough big plays to come out on top.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: WR Ja'Marr Chase (questionable, shoulder)
KC injuries: RB Isiah Pacheco (questionable, shoulder), RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (questionable, illness), WR Kadarius Toney (out, hip)

CIN DFS targets: none
KC DFS targets: Kelce (CIN 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

CIN DFS fades: Browning (KC fifth in passing DVOA, third in net passing yards per game allowed, fourth in YPA allowed), Tyler Boyd (KC second in DVOA vs. WR3)
KC DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC is fifth in third-down conversions at 45.3 percent; CIN is 28th in third-down defense at 43.2 percent

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-30s, 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Mixon manages 60 yards and a touchdown. Browning throws for 240 yards and two scores, finding Tee Higgins and Drew Sample. Pacheco leads the KC backfield with 70 yards and a TD. Mahomes throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Kelce (who tops 100 yards), and Justin Watson. Kansas City 27-21

SUNDAY NIGHT

Green Bay (+2) at Minnesota, o/u 46 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

It's not like divisional games don't already have high stakes, but whoever loses this one is effectively eliminated from the playoffs, so no pressure. The Packers barely got past the Panthers last week as their secondary continues to be swiss cheese, and they'll play this one without Jaire Alexander (again) because he, uhh, called the coin toss in his home town when he wasn't supposed to. Matt LaFleur feels like a coach who should be on the hot seat just as much as beleaguered DC Joe Barry, but probably won't be until it's way too late. Jordan Love has at least cemented his status as the real deal, whatever else happens for Green Bay in 2023 – over the last six games, the QB has a 67.8 percent completion rate, a 7.4 YPA and a 13:1 TD:INT, numbers which looks an awful lot like Aaron Rodgers' performance once he got comfortable in LaFleur's scheme. Over that stretch, the Packers have averaged 25.7 points a game, which would be a top-10 figure over the whole season, but they've also given up 24.8 a game, which would be a bottom-five mark.

Of all the quarterback changes this week, the Vikings' one might be the funniest. They need to win out, and get a bit of help to reclaim a wild-card spot, so their solution is... fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall, who lasted 11 snaps in his first career start before suffering a concussion and paving the way for the whole Joshua Dobbs experience. Hey, look, Cleveland just became the first team in history to make the playoffs while giving four different QBs starts in a season – why not Minnesota too? Nick Mullens' six INTs in his two starts likely has something to do with Kevin O'Connell's hail-mary decision to turn to Hall, and the kid will have a depleted receiving corps to work with. Then again, Justin Jefferson's healthy, and that might be all the Vikings need against what's been the worst secondary in the league of late.

The Skinny

GB injuries: WR Christian Watson (doubtful, hamstring), WR Dontayvion Wicks (questionable, chest), TE Luke Musgrave (IR-R, abdomen), LB De'Vondre Campbell (doubtful, neck)
MIN injuries: WR Jordan Addison (questionable, ankle), TE T.J. Hockenson (IR, knee), EDGE D.J. Wonnum (IR, quadriceps)

GB DFS targets: none
MIN DFS targets: Jefferson (GB 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)

GB DFS fades: none
MIN DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 5-5-1, average score 26-23 GB, average margin of victory 11 points. The last three season series have been splits; MIN won the first meeting this season 24-10 in Week 8
Key stat: GB is sixth in third-down conversions at 44.7 percent; MIN is 24th in third-down defense at 41.1 percent

The Scoop: Aaron Jones gains 70 yards. Love throws for 290 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Romero Doubs and Jayden Reed. Ty Chandler puts together 50 yards and a TD. Hall throws for under 200 yards and a score to Jefferson, and can't take advantage of the matchup. Packers 23-17

SATURDAY NIGHT

Detroit (+6) at Dallas, o/u 53.5 – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Say hello to your 2023 NFC North champions. The Lions clinched their first division title last week since Barry Sanders was in his prime, but they still have plenty to play for with Detroit, Philly and San Francisco all at 11 wins and fighting for that first-round playoff bye. The running game carried the offense in the clinching victory, with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combining for three TDs and 169 scrimmage yards, but Jared Goff posted another solid road indoor performance – over his last three away games with a roof over his head, he's got a 70.4 percent completion rate, a 5:0 TD:INT and an 8.2 YPA. The Detroit defense remains somewhat hit or miss, though. The unit did generate four takeaways against Minnesota last week, but that equalled their total from the five prior games. The Lions are absolutely capable of winning this one, but they'll probably need to out-gun the Cowboys to do it.

Road Goff has paled in comparison to Road Dak this season, and while Dak Prescott posted better numbers last week in Miami than he managed in Buffalo, Dallas still came out of that AFC East jaunt with two losses and little shot at a division title, or a home game in the playoffs. The flip side of that coin is that Home Dak has been a stone killer, tossing multiple TDs in five straight games at AT&T Stadium with a 17:1 TD:INT, 70.7 percent completion rate and 9.0 YPA. CeeDee Lamb hasn't really cared where he's played though, and over nine contests since the team's bye he's racked up 10 total TDs (eight receiving, two rushing) and over 100 receiving yards a game. Lamb's 180 yards away from setting a new franchise record for receiving yards in a season (Michael Irvin had 1,603 in 1995), and just three catches away from breaking Irvin's 1995 mark in that category as well. Given how vulnerable the Lions' secondary has been lately, don't discount the possibility he claims both records Saturday.

The Skinny

DET injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
DAL injuries: RB Rico Dowdle (questionable, ankle)

DET DFS targets: none
DAL DFS targets: none

DET DFS fades: Jameson Williams (DAL third in DVOA vs. WR2)
DAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: DAL is third in third-down conversions at 47.6 percent; DET is 13th in third-down defense at 37.7 percent

The Scoop: Gibbs scampers for 90 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Montgomery adds 50 yards and a score. Goff throws for 320 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown (who tops 100 yards). Tony Pollard gains 80 combined yards and a TD. Prescott throws for 340 yards and three scores, finding Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup and Lamb, who sets a new DAL receptions record but not the yardage record. Micah Parsons returns a Montgomery fumble to the house for what proves to be the difference. Cowboys 35-31

THURSDAY NIGHT

N.Y. Jets (+7) at Cleveland, o/u 36.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Jets have won two of their last three, scoring 30 points each time, but they got shut out by the Dolphins in the third game so it's not like they've exactly turned a corner. With the team committed to Aaron Rodgers for 2024 (and 2025?), there's less pressure to get a draft spot that can land them a young franchise QB, so they might as well go all out this week to try and spoil Cleveland's playoff seeding. Breece Hall was the star last week against Washington with 191 scrimmage yards and two rushing touchdowns, and he also hit for 126 yards and a receiving TD in the prior win over Houston. Despite the abysmal showing by the offense around him, the second-year player has still put together 1,269 combined yards – 10th in the league, and sixth among RBs – and is probably going to be undervalued at 2024 draft tables. Trevor Siemian gets another start here, and his 52.3 percent completion rate, 1:3 TD:INT and 4.5 YPA through three appearances this season mark him as exactly the guy you don't want facing an elite defense.

A win here for the Browns clinches a playoff spot (actually, even a tie would do), and a win and a Ravens loss to the Dolphins on Sunday keeps alive their hopes of winning the AFC North and even potentially claiming the top seed in the conference, although those are long shots. Joe Flacco's been ridiculous, racking up 1,053 passing yards and eight TDs while winning three straight starts, but he's done it against Jags, Bears and Texans secondaries that are all in the bottom half of the league in QB rating against. Even then, he's also committed seven turnovers. The Jets are third in QBR this season at 76.8, behind only the Browns and Ravens, so this should be Flacco's first true test on his comeback tour. It's also hard to ignore how narrow his target tree has been after Amari Cooper set a new franchise record for receiving yards in a game at 265 yards (erasing one of the all-time great couldabeens, Josh Gordon, from the Cleveland record book). Between them, Cooper and David Njoku have accounted for 51.9 percent of Flacco's attempts and 65.5 percent of his passing yards in those three contests, along with seven of his eight TDs. Cleveland's defense seems back in form too, holding four straight opponents to 20 first downs or less and generating nine takeaways during Flacco's win streak to balance out the QB's own miscues, along with 10 sacks. If there's a concern for the Browns in this one it's the state of their offensive line on a short week, but a Jets pass rush that someone only managed one sack against the Commanders may not be that big a threat to Flacco.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: QB Zach Wilson (out, concussion), K Greg Zuerliein (questionable, quadriceps)
CLE injuries: RB Kareem Hunt (questionable, groin), K Dustin Hopkins (out, hamstring), S Grant Delpit (IR, groin)

NYJ DFS targets: none
CLE DFS targets: Browns DST (t-2nd in takeaways, NYJ t-30th in giveaways, 31st in sacks allowed)

NYJ DFS fades: Siemian (CLE second in passing DVOA, first in net passing yards per game allowed, second in YPA allowed), Garrett Wilson (CLE first in DVOA vs. WR1), Jason Brownlee (CLE second in DVOA vs. WR2), Tyler Conklin (CLE first in DVOA vs. TE)
CLE DFS fades: Flacco (NYJ third in passing DVOA, second in net passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed, second in passing TDs allowed), Cedric Tillman (NYJ first in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: NYJ are 32nd in third-down conversions at 25.5 percent; CLE is first in third-down defense at 28.7 percent

Weather notes: 30-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Hall manages 50 yards. Siemian throws for under 200 yards, gets sacked five times and picked off twice. Jerome Ford gains 70 combined yards and a touchdown. Flacco also gets picked off twice, one of which Jordan Whitehead returns to the house, but he throws for 220 yards and two TDs, finding Njoku and Cooper. Browns 24-10

Last week's record: 9-7, 6-10 ATS, 9-7 o/u
2023 record: 140-100, 113-118-9 ATS, 133-104-3 o/u