NFL Game Previews: Monday Wild-Card Matchups

MONDAY 

Pittsburgh (+10) at Buffalo, o/u 36 – Monday, 4:30 p.m. EST

I think "Flaccossance" is clumsy enough, so thank goodness no one's tried to make Rudolphaissance a thing. Mason Rudolph carried the Steelers to the postseason by leading them to three straight wins, posting a 74.6 percent completion rate, 10.1 YPA and 3:0 TD:INT over that stretch as Mike Tomlin realized Mitch Trubisky wasn't going to cut it in the nick of time. Considering Rudolph didn't attempt a pass in 2022 and had a career QB rating somewhere south of 85.0 coming into this season, I'm not sure how likely it is he keeps up that level of performance, but there's always Kenny Pickett if he stumbles. Having a competent passing attack has allowed Najee Harris to get rolling though, and the third-year back has popped for 312 rushing yards and four TDs during the win streak. The defense has been its usual stout self this season but will have to get though this one without T.J. Watt, which is far from ideal. Pittsburgh hasn't actually won a playoff game since 2016, when they got thumped by the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, and the odds seems stacked against them ending that streak here.

Just as everyone predicted before the season, the Bills were the AFC East champs, and let's not pay too much attention to how they got there. As the old saying goes, it's the destination that matters and not the journey... wait, that doesn't sound right. Buffalo did seem to get things straightened out down the stretch, winning five straight games following their bye to roar past Miami in Week 18, and they beat Kansas City and Dallas along the way too. So why do I still feel like this bubble could burst any second? Maybe it's Josh Allen's five INT during the win streak. Maybe it's Stefon Diggs' disappearing act – he managed just a 24-214-0 line on 39 targets during those five games. Maybe it's the fact that they barely squeaked by the 5-12 Chargers and 4-13 Patriots, and needed a 96-yard punt return TD to help pull out that win over the Dolphins. Whatever the reason, things still feel off with the Bills. You could just as easily look at that run of luck make a "team of destiny" argument for them, though. Even if the offense starts to sputter, the defense has held four straight opponents under 300 yards, and that's probably good enough to get through to the divisional round, especially in a bad-weather game in which points could be at a premium.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: EDGE Watt (out, knee)
BUF injuries: WR Gabe Davis (out, knee), TE Dawson Knox (questionable, illness)

PIT DFS targets: none
BUF DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: Rudolph (BUF seventh in net passing yards per game allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed)
BUF DFS fades: none

Key stat: BUF is first in third-down conversions at 49.8 percent; PIT is 21st in third-down defense at 39.1 percent

Weather notes: temperature in the low 20s, 30-35 mph wind, 50-70 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Harris puts together 80 yards and a score. Rudolph throws for less than 200 yards. James Cook runs for 80 yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for less than 200 yards but also runs in a TD. Bills 17-10

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (+3), o/u 43.5
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

I, err, hmm ... Julio Jones revenge game, I guess? The Eagles staggered into the postseason like a Temple kid during frosh week, losing five of their last six and dropping games to the 6-11 Giants and 4-13 Cardinals with the NFC East title on the line. Philly's just a mess right now, on both sides of the ball. Jalen Hurts' season went sideways long before his finger did (I'm not linking it – if you haven't seen the footage, trust me when I say it's icky), and he didn't reach an 8.0 YPA in any of his last eight games, posting a 60.9 percent completion rate, 6.5 YPA and 8:7 TD:INT over that two-month stretch. Sure, he bailed out his fantasy value with eight rushing TDs, but if someone had suggested in October that Justin Fields would play as well as Hurts down the stretch, this isn't what fans in either Philly or Chicago would have had in mind. The murmurs about Nick Sirianni's job being in jeopardy are probably overblown, but this team was 10-1 to start the year before its collapse, and if they're one and done in the postseason, well, they got rid of Doug Pederson a few years after a Super Bowl win. Did I mention that A.J. Brown could have to sit this one out too?

My dream of a three-way tie at 8-9 atop the NFC South got dashed in the final week, but to be honest, the Bucs played well enough down the stretch to get above .500 and be credible division champs. I won't go above 'credible' for a team that couldn't score a touchdown against the Panthers when their season was potentially on the line, though. Baker Mayfield may have found a new home in Tampa Bay with a career-best season, as he produced his first 4,000-yard season and set a new personal high with 28 passing touchdowns. While he'll never be a superstar, the first overall pick in the 2018 draft can be a solid second-tier starter, and good enough to get his team to the playoffs consistently with a solid roster around him. He did get banged up in the Week 18 win over Carolina, however. Having Mike Evans to throw to was a big help for Mayfield, and the future Hall of Fame wideout just keeps doing his thing regardless of who's getting him the ball, posting his 10th straight 1,000-yard campaign to begin his career with his fifth season of 12-plus TDs. Rachaad White came up 10 yards short of 1,000 for the year, but he still established himself as the Bucs' top dog in the backfield, and his 3.6 YPC on the season masks a more palatable 4.1 mark over the final seven games. These two teams met back in Week 3 in Tampa, and the Eagles rolled with a 25-11 Scorigami special that saw White give up a safety. That result seems like it happened a lifetime ago, but it at least serves as a reminder that, on paper, the road team here is the more talented squad.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: QB Hurts (questionable, finger), WR Brown (questionable, knee), S Reed Blankenship (questionable, groin)
TB injuries: QB Mayfield (questionable, ankle)

PHI DFS targets: none
TB DFS targets: Mayfield (PHI 29th in passing DVOA, 31st in net passing yards per game allowed, 31st in passing TDs allowed)

PHI DFS fades: D'Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell (TB fifth in rushing yards per game allowed, third in passing DVOA vs. RB)
TB DFS fades: none

Key stat: TB is t-10th in third-down conversions at 41.5 percent; PHI is 31st in third-down defense at 46.4 percent

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 55-65 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Swift slides for 60 yards. Hurts plays and throws for 210 yards, running in a score. White puts together 80 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Mayfield throws for 240 yards and a TD to Evans, and it's just enough. Buccaneers 20-16

SATURDAY

Cleveland at Houston (+2), o/u 44.5 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Browns roll into this one having won four straight games with Joe Flacco under center, as the 38-year-old revived his career and Cleveland's flagging offense all in one fell swoop when he took over in December. With the other side of the ball carrying its weight, the defense rebounded from a November slump and held the opposition to an average of 21.5 points and just under 285 yards during that win streak while racking up multiple takeaways in each game – a win streak that included a 36-22 victory over Houston in Week 16. Flacco's main men have been Amari Cooper and David Njoku, each of whom posted multiple 100-yard performances with their new QB. Cooper did miss the final two games of the regular season due to a heel injury, but he's expected to suit up for this one. Myles Garrett also ended a five-game sack drought in Week 17 before taking the finale off to nurse a sore shoulder, perhaps setting the stage for a monster performance in the playoff spotlight.

The elephant in the room on that Week 16 loss, of course, is that C.J. Stroud wasn't in the lineup for the Texans. The rookie QB missed two games due to a concussion but was back in eye-popping form in Houston's must-win finale against Indianapolis, tossing two TDs with a 10.2 YPA. In a season that's seen record-setting performances from rookie wideouts and tight ends, there should still be no question who the Offensive Rookie of the Year is. Had he not missed those two games, Stroud almost certainly would have broken Andrew Luck's 2012 rookie record of 4,374 passing yards – heck, he was only 266 yards behind, he might have only needed one more start. (Incidentally, if you're looking for an early 2024 bet, I think that record falls next season. Justin Herbert and Stroud have both been on pace to crack it and only didn't because they missed a bit of time. There are too many good QB in the 2024 draft class, and too many good landing spots for them, to think Luck will hold onto it much longer. I mean, forget about Caleb Williams or Drake Maye as a Commander. What if Jim Harbaugh brings J.J. McCarthy with him to Atlanta? What if Sean Payton has his eye on Jayden Daniels or Michael Penix with the 12th pick for Denver?) Houston's defense also became something of a force under DeMeco Ryans, and the pass rush might be deeper than most people realize – Will Anderson and Jonathan Greenard were banged up down the stretch, but Derek Barnett and Jerry Hughes combined for 4.5 sacks over the final four games. Flacco got sacked eight times in his five starts, and while the Cleveland o-line has held up, it's still missing both its usual starting tackles.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: RB Kareem Hunt (questionable, groin), WR Cooper (questionable, heel), WR Cedric Tillman (questionable, concussion), K Dustin Hopkins (out, hamstring), EDGE Garrett (questionable, shoulder), S Grant Delpit (IR-R, groin)
HOU injuries: WR Noah Brown (questionable, back), WR Robert Woods (questionable, hip), EDGE Anderson (questionable, ankle), EDGE Greenard (questionable, ankle)

CLE DFS targets: David Bell (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)
HOU DFS targets: none

CLE DFS fades: Jerome Ford (HOU second in rushing DVOA, second in YPC allowed)
HOU DFS fades: Stroud (CLE second in passing DVOA, first in net passing yards per game allowed, second in YPA allowed), Nico Collins (CLE first in DVOA vs. WR1), Brown (CLE second in DVOA vs. WR2, second in DVOA vs. deep throws)

Key stat: HOU is 19th in third-down conversions at 37.9 percent; CLE is first in third-down defense at 29.1 percent

The Scoop: Ford grinds out 50 yards. Flacco throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, two to Cooper (who tops 100 yards) and one to Bell. Devin Singletary gains 70 yards. Stroud throws for 240 yards and TDs to Collins and Xavier Hutchinson. A Garrett strip sack turns into a touchdown that seals the win. Browns 28-20

Miami (+4.5) at Kansas City, o/u 44 – Saturday, 8 p.m. EST

If college bowl games get sponsors, why can't Cheetos sponsor this one? It's not like the NFL to leave money on the table. Tyreek Hill will make his return to Kansas City for the first time, but he probably wishes he wasn't, all things considered. The Dolphins let the AFC East slip through their fingers to kick them out on the road as a wild-card team, losing their last two games and blowing a 14-7 fourth-quarter lead to the Bills in the regular-season finale to do it. Gut punches like that can be hard to recover from, and after being one-and-done in the postseason last year (Buffalo, again), Miami's got some things to prove. Tua Tagovailoa stumbled to the finish line, tossing multiple picks in both those losses, and while you can wave those off as being products of facing tough, experienced secondaries, it's not like the one he'll be taking on Saturday is any softer. Tagovailoa hasn't throws for 300-plus yards since Week 11, and in seven games since he's got a 68.5 percent completion rate, 7.9 YPA and 8:6 TD:INT – not terrible numbers, but far below the standards he established in the first half of 2023. The roster around him has rarely been fully healthy during that time, but the injury situation's even more dire for the Dolphins' defense, and excuses are for the offseason -- even one as big as the team's terrible record in the cold.

Speaking of excuses... what the heck has happened to the Kansas City offense? Sure, the team won three of its last four, but the defense did all the heavy lifting. The team hasn't scored 30 or more points in a game since November and averaged a stunning 19.2 points over its last six. Sure, one of those was a Week 18 matchup with all the big names sitting out – including Travis Kelce, who wound up 16 yards short of his eighth straight 1,000-yard campaign – but Patrick Mahomes' 6:5 TD:INT and 6.8 YPA over the prior five games were shocking. It's not even really clear why the offense has sputtered so badly. Isiah Pacheco has been productive when healthy, and Rashee Rice put together maybe the best rookie season in franchise history. No one else made much of a positive impact among the WRs though (Kadarius Toney kind of forced me to include the 'positive' qualifier there), magnifying Kelce's own slightly down season. The defense is good enough to maybe get them a postseason win or two, but if things don't start clicking for Mahomes, a deep run seems impossible.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: RB Raheem Mostert (questionable, knee), RB De'Von Achane (questionable, toe), WR Hill (questionable, ankle), WR Jaylen Waddle (questionable, ankle), EDGE Bradley Chubb (IR, knee), S Jevon Holland (questionable, knee)
KC injuries: RB Jerick McKinnon (IR, pelvis), WR Toney (questionable, hip)

MIA DFS targets: none
KC DFS targets: Kelce (MIA 30th in DVOA vs. TE) 

MIA DFS fades: Tagovailoa (KC fourth in net passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed), Cedrick Wilson (KC second in DVOA vs. WR3) 
KC DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIA is second red-zone conversions at 65.5 percent (38-for-58); KC is t-8th in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent (25-for-50)

Weather notes: temperature in the low single digits, 10-15 mph wind

The Scoop: Mostert is active, but Achane leads the MIA backfield with 120 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Tagovailoa throws for 230 yards and a second touchdown to Hill. Pacheco puts together 80 yards. Mahomes throws for 210 yards and two TDs, one each to Rice and Kelce. Dolphins 24-17

SUNDAY

Green Bay (+7.5) at Dallas, o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Packers claimed a wild-card spot by winning their last three games, but they owe the schedule-makers a big assist as they didn't face a team with a winning record during that stretch. Jordan Love was sharp to close out his first season as the starting QB, posting a 9:0 TD:INT, 73.5 percent completion rate and an 8.1 YPA over the final four games, and he did it with a rotating cast of wideouts due to various injuries. Green Bay's secondary was able to pull out of its death spiral in the final couple games, but being able to handle Jaren Hall and Justin Fields doesn't actually prove a whole lot. This is a unit that gave up Bryce Young's only 300-yard passing performance of the season, made Baker Mayfield look like peak Tom Brady, and couldn't even stop Tommy DeVito from engineering a game-winning drive inside the final two minutes in Week 14. If the Packers had a running game they could rely on to chew clock and keep Dak Prescott off the field, it might be a different story, but neither Aaron Jones nor AJ Dillon look like they'll be 100 percent for this one.

Revenge game weekend continues as Mike McCarthy faces the franchise that dumped him in 2018 after a 4-7-1 start. McCarthy's done a decent job re-inventing himself in Dallas, but he still needs to win a playoff game or two before fans really start to buy in. Fortunately for the Cowboys, they won the NFC East and get to play at home for another week or two. The team's splits are ridiculous – 8-0 at JerryWorld this year, and they're riding a 16-game home winning streak that dates back to Week 1 of 2022. The average score of games in Dallas this season? A preposterous 37-16. The Cowboys actually topped 40 points in four straight contests at one point, and their 20-19 win over the Lions in Week 17 was the only one that was really close – the Seahawks had a 35-27 lead against them early in the fourth quarter, only to see the the 'Boys reel off 14 straight points on three scoring drives to close it out. Prescott's splits are equally ludicrous. He's got a 73.3 percent completion rate, 8.6 YPA and 22:3 TD:INT at home for a 120.0 QB rating, but a 65.9 percent completion rate, 6.8 YPA and 14:6 TD:INT through nine road games (92.4 QB rating). That was still enough to make him the first Dallas quarterback in history to lead the NFL in touchdown passes, and help CeeDee Lamb put together the greatest season by a wideout in franchise history. That duo, against these DBs... well, things could get ugly, unless the Cowboys fold up in the postseason once again.

The Skinny

GB injuries: RB Jones (questionable, knee), RB Dillon (questionable, neck), WR Christian Watson (questionable, hamstring), WR Romeo Doubs (questionable, chest), EDGE Preston Smith (questionable, ankle), S Jonathan Owens (questionable, knee)
DAL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

GB DFS targets: none
DAL DFS targets: Tony Pollard (GB 26th in rushing DVOA, 28th in rushing yards per game allowed)

GB DFS fades: Jones (DAL fifth in rushing DVOA, second in passing DVOA vs. RB)
DAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: DAL is second in third-down conversions at 48.3 percent; GB is 25th in third-down defense at 41.1 percent

The Scoop: Jones leads the GB backfield with 60 yards. Love throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Watson, Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave. Pollard pops for 120 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Prescott throws for 370 yards and three more TDs, two to Lamb (who tops 100 yards) and one to Brandin Cooks. Cowboys 38-27

L.A. Rams (+3) at Detroit, o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 8 p.m. EST

And now it's time for the Matthew Stafford/Jared Goff double-revenge game! Good job, Keegan-Michael Kay. The Rams were on fire over the second half of the season, winning their last four and seven of their last eight, and Stafford being healthy had a lot to do with it – he had a 16:4 TD:INT in his last seven starts before getting Week 18 off. So did the return of Cooper Kupp, although as often as not he took a back seat to Puka Nacua, who merely had the greatest season by a rookie receiver in NFL history. Kyren Williams also came up big (when he was in the lineup, anyway), scoring eight total TDs with 789 scrimmage yards over his last six contests. The surprising contributors didn't stop on the offensive side of the ball either – 2023 third-round pick Kobie Turner did his best Aaron Donald impression along the defensive line with nine sacks among his 57 tackles. Sean McVay's got a lot of toys to play with again, and purely based on their form coming into the playoffs, if you had to pick any wild-card team to make some noise and have a deep run, it would probably be these guys.

The Lions would have won four straight to close out their regular season too, if it weren't for those meddling kids refs. They had their first division title in three decades sewn up by about Halloween, so losing focus a bit in the second half is understandable. Goff's splits weren't as extreme as Dak Prescott's, but he still posted a 19:6 TD:INT in eight games at home compared to an 11:6 TD:INT in nine road games, so hosting at least one playoff game is pretty huge for Detroit. While Nacua was busy being the best rookie wideout in league history, Sam LaPorta was re-writing the rookie record book for tight ends, breaking Keith Jackson's 35-year-old record for receptions with 86 and becoming the third rookie TE to score double-digit touchdowns, joining Rob Gronkowski at 10 (Mike Ditka holds the record with 12, set in 1961). The engine of the Lions' offense is the backfield though, just as it was last year even though the team swapped out Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift for David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. Any time you can get younger and better at a position in the NFL, you're doing well. Gibbs scored six total TDs in the final five weeks while Montgomery added three in the last three games, and a Rams front seven that was pretty meh against the run all year (20th in DVOA, 17th in YPC allowed) is going to have its hands full. The Detroit secondary was bending nearly to the breaking point down the stretch though, even against the likes of Nick Mullens, and if a promising season comes to an abrupt end, that'll likely be the culprit.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: TE Tyler Higbee (questionable, shoulder), S Jordan Fuller (questionable, ankle)
DET injuries: TE LaPorta (questionable, knee)

LAR DFS targets: Stafford (DET 31st in YPA allowed, 27th in passing TDs allowed)
DET DFS targets: none

LAR DFS fades: Williams (DET first in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed), Rams DST (30th in takeaways, DET t-4th in sacks allowed)
DET DFS fades: none

Key stat: DET is third in red-zone conversions at 64.1 percent (41-for-64); LAR are 15th in red-zone defense at 54.2 percent (26-for-48)

The Scoop: Kyren gains 70 yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 310 yards and three touchdowns, two to Kupp (who tops 100 yards) and one to Nacua. Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a score, while Montgomery adds 50 yards and a TD. Goff throws for 350 yards and three touchdowns, one each to LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown (who tops 100 yards) and Jameson Williams. Lions 35-28

Last week's record: 9-7, 7-9 ATS, 8-8 o/u
2023 regular-season record: 162-110, 126-136-10 ATS, 148-121-3 o/u