NFL Game Previews: Monday Night Matchups

MONDAY NIGHT

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (+5.5), o/u 46
Monday, 7:15 p.m. EDT

The Eagles' offense has looked just fine through two weeks, even if A.J. Brown might privately disagree. D'Andre Swift broke out last week, Jalen Hurts ran in two scores, DeVonta Smith had a huge game... if there wasn't much left over for Brown in those circumstances, you know he'll get his soon enough. The biggest obstacle between Philly and a return trip to the Super Bowl is looking like the defense, as injuries in the secondary have left Darius Slay as something of a one-man show. Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins have both taken advantage so far in 2023, and the pass rush being just a beat slow (only four sacks despite Philly being in the top 10 with 17 QB hits) hasn't helped. The Eagles are still undefeated, and the issues are more mild yellow flags than bright red ones, but if you had to put the NFC contenders in absurdly premature tiers right now, they would be one notch down from the Niners and Cowboys.

If those issues on the back end for Philly aren't fixed by Monday, could the Baker Maynaissance continue? Baker Mayfield has looked rejuvenated in Tampa Bay, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes without committing a turnover through his first two games for the Bucs. The Vikings and Bears weren't exactly stern tests, and even this version of the Eagles will be a step up in competition, but having Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to throw to is also a massive step up in supporting cast for Mayfield. Tampa's defense also looked a lot more impressive in beating the Vikes than the Eagles' unit did. That may not mean much in this game – Hurts and Cousins are very, very different QBs, for one thing – but it's at least another data point in favor of the theory that an upset is on the table here.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: RB Kenneth Gainwell (questionable, ribs), WR Smith (questionable, hamstring), WR Quez Watkins (questionable, hamstring)
TB injuries: WR Russell Gage (IR, knee)

PHI DFS targets: none
TB DFS targets: none

PHI DFS fades: none
TB DFS fades: Evans $6,600 DK / $8,000 FD (PHI second in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2022)

Key stat: PHI was third in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 67.8 percent; TB was 26th in red-zone defense at 62.5 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, 9-10 mph wind, 15-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Swift comes up big again, racking up 130 combined yards and a touchdown. Hurts throws for 240 yards and two TDs, hitting Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus while running in a score of his own. Rachaad White manages 40 yards. Mayfield throws for 280 yards and two TDs, finding Godwin (who tops 100 yards) and Cade Otton. Eagles 31-23

L.A. Rams (+1.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 43.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The legend of Puka Nacua continued to grow last week, as this time he posted an absurd 15-147-0 line on 20 targets in a losing effort against the Niners. I don't know what's going to happen when Cooper Kupp is back, but Nacua's not going away, even if he can't possible continue to see this kind of volume. With Kyren Williams taking over in the backfield and scoring four TDs in two games, Sean McVay suddenly looks like a boy genius again, at least as long as Matthew Stafford stays healthy. The defense is still just Aaron Donald and some randos (OK, that's unfair to Jordan Fuller and Michael Hoecht, but only a little), but that could be enough for a while – the Rams' first-half schedule includes the Colts and Steelers along with their first Cards tilt of the year. This could well be a team that beats up on lesser lights but can't keep up with the league's top squads, leading to a wild-card spot and a puncher's chance in the playoffs.

The Bengals should be one of those top squads, but Joe Burrow's calf injury has cut the offense off at the knees, so to speak. Cincy has fewer points than Houston, Chicago or Arizona through two games, and Burrow appears to be in serious danger of missing this game entirely. If the team had a real backup QB it wouldn't be so bad, but instead they have a 27-year-old UDFA who's spent pretty much his entire career to date on practice squads. Jake Browning at least steps into the best possible situation — the rest of the offense is healthy, and Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are as good a trio as you could have to sling it to — but if Burrow doesn't get 100 percent soon, it's entirely possible the Bengals will be staring at an 0-4 start (they're in Tennessee next week), with only a Week 5 trip to Arizona as a possible safe landing spot for a Burrow-less passing game. Joe Mixon at least has looked solid, but he figures to see an awful lot of eight-man boxes Monday night.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: WR Kupp (IR, hamstring), WR Nacua (questionable, oblique)
CIN injuries: QB Burrow (questionable, calf)

LAR DFS targets: Tutu Atwell $5,200 DK / $5,700 FD (CIN 31st in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2022)
CIN DFS targets: none

LAR DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: Browning (one) has fewer career NFL pass attempts than Kupp (four), and the same number of completions (zero)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 30-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Williams gains 60 yards and a score. Stafford throws for 280 yards and two TDs, finding Atwell and Tyler Higbee. Mixon manages 50 yards. Browning throws for less than 200 yards but does hit Higgins for a touchdown. Rams 24-16

EARLY SUNDAY

Indianapolis (+7.5) at Baltimore, o/u 44 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Anthony Richardson scored two rushing touchdowns on just 17 snaps last week but got knocked out of the game with a concussion doing it, and new head coach Shane Steichen might have to start making some decisions on how to rein in the young Colt once he's cleared to return. Yeah, Indy is 1-1 in a division that could be up for grabs if Jacksonville takes a step backward, but there's no sense drafting a franchise QB if you're just going to burn him out early in his career. The Colts at least seem to have a running game to fall back on, as Zack Moss topped 100 scrimmage yards with a score in his first start, but rushing numbers against the Texans should always be taken with a giant grain of salt. If he keeps performing well though, it should make it easier for the team to justify moving on from Jonathan Taylor.

Baltimore just squeaked by a wounded Cincy squad last week and finds itself as one of only two undefeated teams left in the AFC, with Miami the other — just what everyone predicted at the beginning of the season. The offseason switch in offensive philosophy began to pay off against the Bengals, as Lamar Jackson threw multiple touchdowns for only the second time in his last 11 games. Remember, he posted a 10:2 TD:INT through the first three games of 2022, and even as his overall passing numbers declined following his 2019 MVP campaign, he always seemed to have one or two games a year in which he reminded folks that, oh yeah, he has an arm too. Mark Andrews and rookie Zay Flowers have been his main targets, but if Rashod Bateman and/or Odell Beckham get back in form, Jackson could erupt. With the backfield falling apart again and the secondary banged up, there could be some uncharacteristically high-scoring affairs in the Ravens' future.

The Skinny

IND injuries: QB Richardson (questionable, concussion), RB Taylor (PUP, ankle), RB Evan Hull (IR, knee)
BAL injuries: RB J.K. Dobbins (IR, Achilles), RB Justice Hill (questionable, toe), WR Beckham (questionable, ankle)

IND DFS targets: none
BAL DFS targets: Ravens DST $3,700 DK / $4,500 FD (t-5th in sacks in 2022, IND 31st in sacks allowed, 32nd in giveaways in 2022) 

IND DFS fades: none
BAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: IND was 29th in third-down conversions in 2022 at 32.9 percent; BAL was fourth in third-down defense at 34.9 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 70s, 10-15 mph wind, 35-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Moss grinds out 60 yards and a score. Gardner Minshew starts under center for IND and throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Michael Pittman. Gus Edwards bangs out 90 yards and a TD. Lamar throws for 260 yards and two scores, finding Flowers (who tops 100 yards) and Andrews. Ravens 27-20

Tennessee (+3.5) at Cleveland, o/u 40 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Derrick Henry's averaging more than 100 scrimmage yards a game in the early going and found the end zone last week, so there's nothing to worry about, right? I mean, other than the career-low 3.6 yards per carry and the nagging injuries that are already accumulating. The 29-year-old's massive workloads started to catch up to him in 2021, and 382 touches last season didn't help matters. The problem for the Titans is that if he breaks down, they have no Plan B. Ryan Tannehill's a game manager at best at this stage of his career, and while the team's run defense remains elite, the passing defense is far from it. Tyjae Spears has shown some flashes as Henry's understudy, but he also only has one good knee. If King Henry topples from his throne, Tennessee's in trouble.

At least he's still in the lineup, though. Nick Chubb's gut-wrenching knee injury Monday night — the same knee, incidentally, that sustained a prior gut-wrenching injury that ended his college career — could force Kevin Stefanski to change things up a bit with the Cleveland offense. Jerome Ford stepped up in impressive fashion after Chubb went down, and the front office moved quickly to bring Kareem Hunt back to town, but this may be merely an adequate running attack rather than a top-shelf one. The pressure should shift even more onto Deshaun Watson, and the 28-year-old has yet to look like he deserves to be one of the NFL's highest-paid QBs since donning a Browns uniform. Myles Garrett and the defense give the team a competitive floor regardless of what happens on the other side of the ball, but Watson's time is officially now.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: RB Henry (questionable, toe)
CLE injuries: RB Chubb (IR, knee), WR Amari Cooper (questionable, groin)

TEN DFS targets: none
CLE DFS targets: Watson $6,100 DK / $7,500 FD (TEN 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, t-28th in passing TDs allowed in 2022), Donovan Peoples-Jones $4,100 DK / $5,900 FD (TEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR3, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws in 2022)

TEN DFS fades: Ford $4,800 DK / $5,600 FD (TEN first in rushing DVOA in 2022 – second in 2023, first in rushing yards per game allowed in 2022, first in YPC allowed, t-3rd in rushing TDs allowed)
CLE DFS fades: none

Key stat: TEN was sixth in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 64.3 percent but 26th to begin 2023 (42.9 percent); CLE has yet to allow a team to even get into the red zone in 2023

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the low 70s, 10-15 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Henry manages 50 yards and a TD. Tannehill throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins, but sees his fumble returned for a score by Ogbonnia Okoronkwo. Ford gets held to 50 yards. Watson throws for 250 yards and a TD to Peoples-Jones. Browns 20-17

Atlanta (+3) at Detroit, o/u 46 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Through two weeks there are more undefeated teams left in the NFC South than there are in the entire AFC — just what everyone predicted at the beginning of the season. The Falcons rallied in impressive fashion last week against the Packers, scoring the final 13 points to overcome a 24-12 deficit at the end of the third quarter — a comeback that would have gotten more attention were it not for the fact the Giants said "hold my beer" a few hours later — and Desmond Ridder actually remembered that Drake London existed, which was nice. (Kyle Pitts' picture is still on Fulton County milk cartons, however.) I still think this team's ceiling is sneaking into a wild-card spot, though. Yeah, the rushing attack is fearsome with Bijan Robinson getting spelled by Tyler Allgeier, but Ridder's 237 passing yards last week was actually his career high (in six starts, granted) and the defense is still something of a work in progress.

The Lions almost pulled off a late comeback last week too, forcing OT against the Seahawks with 10 points in the last three-plus minutes only to not even get a possession in the extra frame. It's just another reminder that while the NFL's overtime rules are better than they were, they still suck. Jared Goff threw for three touchdowns again, the fourth time he's done that in his last seven starts, but the offense around him came out of the Seattle loss fairly banged up. David Montgomery seems the most likely of the skill players to actually sit Sunday, and if he does it might not necessarily mean Jahmyr Gibbs suddenly gets 25 touches. Coach Dan Campbell might instead plug Craig Reynolds or even Zonovan Knight into the Montgomery spot, just as Montgomery got plugged into the Jamaal Williams spot. Giving the TD hog role to a guy with zero career rushing touchdowns in Reynolds would be a bold strategy, Cotton, but it would be very Dan Campbell.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
DET injuries: RB Montgomery (questionable, thigh), WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (questionable, toe), WR Josh Reynolds (questionable, groin), WR Jameson Williams (out, suspension)

ATL DFS targets: none
DET DFS targets: Goff $6,500 DK / $7,500 FD (ATL 31st in passing DVOA in 2022)

ATL DFS fades: none
DET DFS fades: none

Key stat: DET was fourth in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 66.2 percent, and is third to begin 2023 at 80 percent (4-for-5); ATL was 14th in red-zone defense in 2022 at 55.0 percent, and t-15th so far in 2023 (60.0 percent)

The Scoop: Bijan tears it up for 110 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Ridder throws for 230 yards and a second touchdown to Mack Hollins. Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 80 yards and hauls in a receiving score, while CReynolds vultures a short TD. Goff throws for 300 yards and two more touchdowns, hitting JReynolds (no relation, I don't think) and Kalif Raymond. Lions 31-24

New Orleans (+2) at Green Bay, o/u 43 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The 2-0 Saints haven't exactly looked like world-beaters in barely getting by the Titans and Panthers, but a win's a win. It's been the defense leading the way, as Derek Carr's mostly been a non-factor and Alvin Kamara has one more game left on his suspension. Jamaal Williams also got hurt last week and looks iffy for Sunday, which would leave the backfield in the hands of career backup Tony Jones, rookie Kendre Miller and possibly veteran Swiss Army knife Taysom Hill, though Hill's banged up too after running for 75 yards last week, catching one pass and completing another. Games like that are why anyone who drafts Taysom outside of best-ball formats is just begging for heartbreak. If Carr can get rolling, New Orleans would look like one of the better second-tier teams in the NFC (I'm putting SF and DAL plus PHI, until they conclusively prove otherwise, in the first tier), but it's also possible that an offensive scheme designed around an aging Drew Brees just isn't conducive to big numbers from any other QB.

The Packers have no one to blame but themselves after letting last week's lead slip through their fingers. You certainly can't fault Jordan Love, who's started his first season at the helm with a 6:0 TD:INT despite the fact that Christian Watson hasn't played a snap yet. Aaron Jones also sat out last week with a hamstring issue, and he might have been able to kill the clock a little more effectively in the second half against Atlanta. While second-year wideout Romeo Doubs was the receiving star in Week 1, rookie Jayden Reed was on the other end of two Love TD passes in Week 2, and Green Bay's recent draft investments at WR look like they are all going to pay off handsomely.

The Skinny

NO injuries: RB Kamara (out, suspension), RB Williams (questionable, hamstring), QB/TE/?? Taysom Hill (questionable, knee)
GB injuries: RB Jones (questionable, hamstring), WR Watson (questionable, hamstring)

NO DFS targets: Miller $4,300 DK / $4,600 FD and Jones $4,500 DK / $4,500 FD (GB 31st in rushing DVOA in 2022)
GB DFS targets: Reed $3,800 DK / $5,900 FD (NO 29th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2022)

NO DFS fades: Michael Thomas $5,300 DK / 45,800 FD (GB first in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2022)
GB DFS fades: Love $5,600 DK / $7,300 FD (NO second in passing yards per game allowed, t-3rd in passing TDs allowed in 2022), Luke Musgrave $3,300 DK / $4,900 FD (NO second in DVOA vs. TE in 2022)

Key stat: NO was 15th in third-down conversions in 2022 at 40.2 percent; GB was eighth in third-down defense at 37.6 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the high 60s, 10-15 mph wind, 20-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Miller leads the NO backfield with 50 yards. Carr throws for 240 yards and two scores, both to Chris Olave (who tops 100 yards). AJ Dillon leads the GB backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Love throws for 250 yards and two TDs, hitting Reed and Musgrave. Packers 30-17

Houston (+9.5) at Jacksonville, o/u 44 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Texans have historically stolen the Jaguars' lunch money every chance they've gotten, but if they do it this week it's going to be more of a heist than a bullying. DeMeco Ryans' tenure as head coach hasn't gone smoothly, especially on the defensive end, but to be fair to him he didn't have a lot of work with and the team's one potential strength, its secondary, could be missing its two best players in Week 3. C.J. Stroud is also playing through a shoulder injury, which can't be surprising for a guy who got sacked 11 times in his first two NFL games while working behind a patchwork offensive line.

Jacksonville failed the test last week against the defending champs, but holding a Patrick Mahomes offense to less than 20 points counts as some sort of victory, even if Trevor Lawrence couldn't get the ball into the end zone at all when it was his turn. The Jags will get a couple more chances to show they should be viewed as Super Bowl contenders this season — Week 5 in Buffalo, and coming out of their bye in Week 10 when they play host to the Niners — at which point Cam Robinson will be back to protect Lawrence's blind side. Coach Doug Pederson seems to have all the pieces in place to take the team to the next level, but games like last week show that they still have some work to do to close the gap.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: QB Stroud (questionable, shoulder), WR Tank Dell (questionable, thigh)
JAC injuries: WR Zay Jones (questionable, knee)

HOU DFS targets: Dalton Schultz $3,700 DK / $4,800 FD (JAC 32nd in DVOA vs. TE in 2022)
JAC DFS targets: Travis Etienne $6,900 DK / $8,000 FD (HOU 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed in 2022), Jaguars DST $3,800 DK / $4,700 FD (t-4th in takeaways in 2022, HOU 31st in giveaways in 2022)

HOU DFS fades: none
JAC DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-1 HOU, average score 22-14 HOU, average margin of victory 14 points. HOU had won nine straight meetings and 15 of 17 prior to a 31-3 JAC victory in Week 17 last season. Nine of the last 12 meetings have been decided by 13 points or more
Key stat: JAC was t-9th in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 59.6 percent; HOU was 19th in red-zone defense at 56.4 percent, and is 30th in begin 2023 (7-for-9 against)

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the mid-80s, 10-15 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Dameon Pierce gains 50 yards. Stroud throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Nico Collins but gets sacked four times and picked off twice. Etienne dashes for 80 yards and a score. Lawrence throws for 310 yards and two TDs, hitting Evan Engram and Calvin Ridley (who tops 100 yards). Jaguars 24-13

Denver (+6.5) at Miami, o/u 48 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Broncos are 0-2, which is bad. The two losses are by a combined three points, though, which isn't so bad. On the other hand, they came against less than imposing opponents in the Raiders and Commanders, which is back to being bad again. The Denver offense is still trying to find its footing, and while Russell Wilson looked more like his Seattle self last week, Javonte Williams is still being eased slowly back into action. The defense's stumbles might be more concerning — a perennially stingy secondary has given up multiple TD passes in consecutive weeks to Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Howell, not exactly the cream of the crop at QB. A slow start for the whole AFC West buys the Broncos some time, but Kansas City and (presumably) the Chargers will start rolling at some point, and if they're still losing close games to mediocre teams at that point, Sean Payton's first season in Denver is going to slip away before you know it.

The Dolphins on the other hand are just running away from everybody, figuratively and literally. They've produced about a hundred more yards than the opposition in both their games, doing it through the air in Week 1 and on the ground in Week 2. The defense has missed Jalen Ramsey, but when you have little trouble piling up points, you can afford to give up a few extra. Injuries seem like the only thing that might slow Miami down, but keep in mind coach Mike McDaniel hasn't even really used De'Von Achane yet. Great as Tyreek Hill is, Tua Tagovailoa is probably the only truly indispensable player on the offensive side of the ball.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: WR Tim Patrick (IR, Achilles), TE Greg Dulcich (IR, hamstring)
MIA injuries: RB Jeff Wilson (IR, abdomen), WR Hill (questionable, ankle), WR Jaylen Waddle (questionable, concussion)

DEN DFS targets: Adam Trautman $3,000 DK / $4,300 FD (MIA 30th in DVOA vs. TE in 2022, 29th in 2023)
MIA DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: Braxton Berrios $3,600 DK / $5,100 FD (DEN third in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2022)

Key stat: DEN was 32nd in third-down conversions in 2022 at 29.1 percent; MIA was t-24th in third-down defense at 41.6 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the mid-80s, 9-10 mph wind, 65-75 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Williams rumbles for 70 yards and a TD. Wilson throws for 270 yards and two scores, finding Jerry Jeudy and Trautman. Raheem Mostert dashes for 80 yards and a touchdown. Tua throws for 340 yards and four TDs, two to Hill (who tops 100 yards) and one each to River Cracraft and Durham Smythe. Dolphins 35-21

L.A. Chargers at Minnesota (+1), o/u 54 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

This line was all over the place when I pulled the spreads, ranging from LAC +1.5 to MIN +1, but the majority of books had the Bolts as the slight favorites. Somehow, I don't think Minnesota trading for Cam Akers is going to move that needle much. The Chargers are a tough-luck 0-2 after coming up short in OT against the Titans last week without Austin Ekeler available. Justin Herbert has looked very good while leaning heavily on Keenan Allen, and at some point new OC Kellen Moore's going to start diversifying things by getting players like Gerald Everett and maybe rookie Quentin Johnston more involved. The big problem for the Bolts is that the defense can't seem to get off the field — only the Dolphins' defense has given up more first downs through two weeks.

The Vikings are also 0-2, somehow squandering a 364-yard, four-TD performance from Kirk Cousins last week against the Eagles a week after they squandered a 344-yard, two-TD effort from Cousins. There's a lot of squanderage going on in Minny, is what I'm saying. Unlike their Week 3 opponent, this is pretty much what everyone expected from the Vikes this year — a defense that can put up points in bunches, and a defense that can give them up just as generously. Adding Akers to the backfield to work behind, alongside or ahead of Alexander Mattison behind a banged-up offensive line might give the attack a bit more balance, but this team will only go as far as Cousins and Justin Jefferson can take it.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: RB Ekeler (questionable, ankle), EDGE Joey Bosa (questionable, hamstring), LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, hamstring)
MIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

LAC DFS targets: Herbert $7,500 DK / $8,400 FD (MIN 31st in passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed in 2022)
MIN DFS targets: none

LAC DFS fades: none
MIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIN was eighth in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 62.5 percent; LAC were 11th in red-zone defense at 52.1 percent

The Scoop: Elijah Dotson leads the LAC backfield with 60 combined yards. Herbert throws for 290 yards and two TDs, finding Allen and Mike Williams. Mattison leads the MIN backfield with 60 yards as well. Cousins throws for 330 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Jefferson (who tops 100 yards), Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn. The two teams also trade defensive scores — an INT return by J.C. Jackson, and a fumble recovery TD by Dean Lowry. Vikings 28-24

New England at N.Y. Jets (+2.5), o/u 37 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Unlike some of the other winless teams in the NFL, the Patriots' 0-2 start seems about right. They'll be a tough out all year, but they just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with teams like the Eagles or Dolphins. That shouldn't be an issue this week though, and then there's the little matter of the fact that they just don't ever lose to the Jets. Mac Jones is showing signs of improvement, but he has yet to reach a 6.0 YPA in either game this year, although a diluted number in that metric isn't surprising for the guy who's attempted more passes than anyone else in the NFL so far. If anything, Rhamondre Stevenson has been a bit of disappointment on that side of the ball, but an injury-depleted offensive line bears some responsibility there.

This was always going to be a what-if season for the Jets once Aaron Rodgers went down, and there aren't really too many conclusions to be drawn from last week's dismantling by the Cowboys, but it's a little hard to ignore the fact that only the Steelers' offense has generated fewer first downs through two games. It's also easy to make excuses for Zach Wilson – last week's three INTs all came after the game was essentially decided – but his 54.2 percent completion rate and 6.5 YPA don't hint that a breakout is around the corner. The Jets want to ease Breece Hall back into things, but taking the training wheels off him could represent the team's best chance of not wasting what's shaping up to be another elite season from the young, star-studded defense.

The Skinny

NE injuries: WR DeVante Parker (questionable, knee), WR Tyquan Thornton (IR, shoulder)
NYJ injuries: QB Rodgers (IR, Achilles), RB Hall (questionable, knee), K Greg Zuerlein (questionable, groin), LB Quincy Williams (questionable, knee)

NE DFS targets: Patriots DST $3,500 DK / $5,000 FD (t-3rd in sacks, t-2nd in takeaways in 2022)
NYJ DFS targets: none

NE DFS fades: Jones $5,300 DK / $6,800 FD (NYJ third in passing yards per game allowed, t-1st in passing TDs allowed in 2022)
NYJ DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 10-0 NE, average score 30-11 NE, average margin of victory 19 points. NE has won 14 straight meetings, with NYJ's last win in the rivalry coming in Week 16 of 2015, when Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three TDs passes – including two to Brandon Marshall – in a 26-20 victory 
Key stat: NYJ were 28th in third-down conversions in 2022 at 34.6 percent; NE was 21st in third-down defense at 40.2 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the high 60s, 10-15 mph wind, 4045 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Stevenson gets held to 50 yards. Jones throws for 210 yards and two scores, finding Parker and Hunter Henry. Hall leads the NYJ backfield with 50 yards, while Dalvin Cook adds 40. Wilson throws for under 200 yards but does hit Mecole Hardman for a TD. Patriots 20-16

Buffalo at Washington (+6.5), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Raiders were on the receiving end of the Bills' frustrations last week, as Buffalo went from a minus-3 turnover differential in its opener to a plus-3 against Vegas. Josh Allen dispelled any idea that there was any cause for concern, although anybody with fantasy shares in him was probably hoping for a bit more production on the ground from him so far. Instead, coach Sean McDermott and OC Ken Dorsey finally seem to have found a running back they like as James Cook erupted for over 150 scrimmage yards in Week 2. The depth chart seems to be in flux at the margins – Latavius Murray looks like the No. 2 RB over Damien Harris, while the camp battle for the slot receiver role between Khalil Shakir and Deonte Harty seems to have been won by Dalton Kincaid – but otherwise things appear to be firmly back on track. The Bills won't have to wait long to try and flag down the Dolphins either, hosting them in Week 4, so the only real danger here might be if they caught looking ahead.

That's a lot less likely to happen against an undefeated opponent, though. Run the Commanders' first two games back a thousand times, and you'd probably get a perfectly even split between 2-0, 0-2 and 1-1 (both ways), but in this simulation they're 2-0 after coming back late against the Cards and surviving a late comeback by the Broncos on a two-point conversion attempt that had a debatably absent flag for pass interference on Benjamin St-Juste. Brian Robinson's been the big star with three TDs so far, while Sam Howell does seem to be taking a step forward in Year 2 under Eric Bieniemy's tutelage. The pass rush is also tied with Dallas for the league lead at 10 sacks. There's not enough here to think the Commanders are a real threat for an NFC East title over the Eagles over Cowboys, but they could easily be good enough to, say, take a wild-card spot and pull off a first-round "upset" over the NFC South winner. With Buffalo and Philly lined up the next two weeks though, a reality check is likely on its way.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: TE Dawson Knox (questionable, back), EDGE Von Miller (PUP, knee), EDGE Leonard Floyd (questionable, ankle)
WAS injuries: TE Logan Thomas (questionable, concussion)

BUF DFS targets: none
WAS DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: none
WAS DFS fades: Howell $5,400 DK / $7,000 FD (BUF second in passing DVOA, fifth in YPA allowed in 2022), Thomas $3,100 DK / $4,800 FD (BUF first in DVOA vs. TE in 2022)

Key stat: BUF was first in third-down conversions in 2022 at 50.3 percent, and is sixth so far in 2023 at 46.2 percent; WAS was first in third-down defense at 31.9 percent, and is eighth this season at 30.8 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the high 60s, 10-15 mph wind, 30-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Cook piles up 90 combined yards and a receiving score. Allen runs for one TD and throws for 280 yards and two more touchdowns, finding Harty and Stefon Diggs. Robinson bangs out 60 yards and a TD. Howell throws for 250 yards and two scores of his own, hitting Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Bills 31-24

LATE SUNDAY

Carolina (+6) at Seattle, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

This year's crop of first-round QBs has had a rough couple weeks. Like Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young is nursing an injury and seems likely to give way to Andy Dalton for this one. That's probably good news for the Panthers' pass-catchers, truth be told – Young's future is bright, but his YPA is 4.2 through his first two games. The fact that the kid nearly led Carolina to an upset win in New Orleans despite playing through his ankle injury the entire second half probably earned him a bunch of respect in the locker room, but it also might have a few folks questioning why Frank Reich didn't turn to Dalton on Monday. It's almost like winning games isn't the goal this season... pass rushers Brian Burns and Justin Houston are also banged up and Shaq Thompson could be done for the year, so a defense that has been fairly respectable in the early going could be headed for some tough times.

The Seahawks dodged an 0-2 bullet with their OT win over the Lions last week, as Geno Smith shook off that brutal Week 1 second half in impressive fashion. Seattle's injury report is littered with questionables, including most of the secondary and offensive line, so the lineup that actually takes the field Sunday is kind of up in the air, but Smith, Kenneth Walker and Tyler Lockett could be enough to take care of business on their own. The latter two are coming off two-TD performances, and the 'Hawks probably won't need 37 points to put the Panthers away.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: QB Young (doubtful, ankle), RB Miles Sanders (questionable, pectoral), EDGE Burns (questionable, ankle)
SEA injuries: WR DK Metcalf (questionable, ribs)

CAR DFS targets: DJ Chark $3,800 DK / $5,600 FD (SEA 30th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2022)
SEA DFS targets: none

CAR DFS fades: Jonathan Mingo $3,400 DK / $5,100 FD (SEA first in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2022)
SEA DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR was 30th in third-down conversions in 2022 at 31.7 percent; SEA was 27th in third-down defense at 42.3 percent, and is 32nd so far in 2023 at 60.7 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 45-60 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Sanders plays but Chuba Hubbard leads the CAR backfield with 60 yards. Dalton throws for 240 yards and a TD to Hayden Hurst. Walker churns out 80 yards and a score. Smith throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Metcalf and Zach Charbonnet. Seahawks 27-16

Dallas at Arizona (+12), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Cowboys won their first game by 40 points and their second by 20, so by the iron-clad mathematical principle known as Zeno's paradox of Achilles and the tortoise, they'll only beat the Cardinals by 10 points this week. (They'll also go undefeated this year, winning the Super Bowl by 0.000076 points.) Strangely, my new jury-rigged score algorithm disagrees. Dan Quinn's defense faces its first real test this week though – not from the opponent necessarily, but from injury. Starting corner/ballhawk extraordinaire Trevon Diggs tore his ACL in practice and is gone for the year, and while Dallas has the secondary depth to survive, it's still a big loss for a unit that's leading the NFL in both takeaways and sacks in the early going. It might be time to unleash Dak Prescott and the offense instead.

I will say this for Jonathan Gannon. He's got Arizona playing hard (in a way Urban Meyer and Nathaniel Hackett couldn't in their brief head coaching stints in Jacksonville and Denver), and while last week's second-half collapse against the Giants kept them winless, the Cards have only lost their first two games by a combined seven points – just what everyone predicted at the beginning of the season. Like the Cowboys, it's been the defense leading the way so far, as Dennis Gardeck and company are tied for third in the league in sacks. Joshua Dobbs looked like a slightly younger Jacoby Brissett last week, not lighting it up through the air but doing enough with his legs to keep his club in the game, and he could be scrambling a lot in this one against Micah Parsons and company.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
ARI injuries: QB Kyler Murray (PUP, knee), S Budda Baker (IR, hamstring)

DAL DFS targets: Cowboys DST $4,400 DK / $5,200 FD (t-3rd in sacks, first in takeaways in 2022)
ARI DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: CeeDee Lamb $7,700 DK / $8,500 FD (ARI first in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2022)
ARI DFS fades: Rondale Moore $3,200 DK / $5,200 FD (DAL second in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2022 – second in 2023)

Key stat: DAL was first in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 71.4 percent; ARI was 30th in red-zone defense at 65.2 percent

The Scoop: Tony Pollard zips for 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Prescott throws for 260 yards and three scores, one each to Lamb, Jake Ferguson and Jalen Tolbert. James Conner gets held to 40 yards but does score a TD. Dobbs throws for under 200 yards but runs for a team-high 50, tossing a touchdown to former Cowboy Geoff Swaim. Cowboys 34-17

Chicago (+13) at Kansas City, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

So, maybe we aren't going to get that Year 3 breakout from Justin Fields. The 11th overall pick in 2021 has committed four turnovers in two games and has seen his YPA regress from last year, and the Bears haven't even played a really tough defense yet. From a fantasy perspective he still figures to run a lot – poor guy's been sacked 10 times already, and he got taken down for the 100th time in his career last week in only his 29th game – but from a franchise perspective, well, it might be time to commit to Collapsing for Caleb. The team's offensive line issues aren't helping the running game either, but rookie Roschon Johnson is at least on a trajectory to emerge as the No. 1 guy over Khalil Herbert sooner rather than later.

The defending champs got Travis Kelce back last week, but Kansas City's scored an uncharacteristic 37 points combined through its first two games as the team breaks in a new wideout corps and a new/old offensive coordinator in Matt Nagy... you know, Chicago's old head coach. He might have a bit of extra motivation to pour it on. The big question remains who, aside from Kelce, will benefit once the offense gets rolling. Skyy Moore flashed last week, but so far Patrick Mahomes' most consistent target has been Bucs retread Justin Watson, who has a 5-107-0 line on nine targets. Kadarius Toney, shockingly, has had trouble staying healthy, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling continues to just kind of be there. Rashee Rice also caught a Week 1 TD, and at some point you have to figure Justyn Ross will get a shot. Moore's the best bet to break out, but this could just be a muddle all year.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: WR Darnell Mooney (questionable, knee)
KC injuries: RB Isiah Pacheco (questionable, hamstring), WR Toney (questionable, toe)

CHI DFS targets: DJ Moore $5,700 DK / $6,400 FD (KC 31st in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2022)
KC DFS targets: Mahomes $8,300 DK / $9,200 FD (CHI 32nd in passing DVOA in 2022 – 30th in 2023, 32nd in YPA allowed in 2022), Isaiah Pacheco $5,400 DK / $5,700 FD (CHI 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed in 2022), SMoore $4,400 DK / $5,600 FD (CHI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2022, 32nd in 2023), Kansas City DST $3,900 DK / $4,800 FD (second in sacks in 2022, CHI 29th in sacks allowed in 2022)

CHI DFS fades: none
KC DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC was second in third-down conversions in 2022 at 48.7 percent; CHI was 32nd in third-down defense at 49.0 percent, and is 31st so far in 2023 at 54.8 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 15-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Herbert leads the CHI backfield with 60 yards. Fields throws for under 200 yards but tosses one score to DJM and runs in another. Pacheco racks up 80 yards. Mahomes throws for 340 yards and three touchdowns, two to Skyy (who tops 100 yards) and one to Jerick McKinnon. Fields also loses a fumble that George Karlaftis returns to the house. Kansas City 31-17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Las Vegas, o/u 43 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

This line also hadn't settled down yet when I pulled spreads, ranging from PIT +2 to LV +1.5, which probably reflects more on the Steelers' chaotic start. It's entirely possible they'd be 0-2 if Nick Chubb hadn't gone down for the Browns in Week 2, and all the offensive progress Kenny Pickett showed against backups in the preseason vanished once he had to face real defenses. On the other hand, facing San Francisco and Cleveland right out of the gate might have made any QB struggle, so it could be too soon to dismiss the idea he'll take a step forward in 2023. He won't have Diontae Johnson to throw to for a few more weeks yet, but he wasn't throwing touchdowns to him anyway. Pittsburgh has the makings of a solid thunder and lightning backfield though, with Najee Harris grinding out the tough yards and Jaylen Warren adding some juice in the passing game, and the duo reminds me more than a little of what Dallas had in Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard a couple years ago (with all that that implies about Harris' future.) Zeke still produced 1,000 yards and double-digit rushing TDs in 2021, so I'm not saying you should bail on your Najee shares, but he isn't making a compelling case to get that second contract, or even have his fifth-year option picked up for 2025.

Speaking of running-back contract situations, Josh Jacobs has a whopping 46 rushing yards through two weeks, and maybe missing all of training camp and the preseason had an impact on last year's rushing champ. The Raiders need him to step it up, since Jimmy Garoppolo's reunion with Josh McDaniels hasn't exactly turned the team into the dynasty-era Patriots' western branch office. Davante Adams hasn't even seen double-digit targets in a game yet, which really should be a fireable offense for McDaniels, no matter who's been blanketing the three-time All-Pro wideout. It's not like Jimmy G has many other options to throw to, especially with Jakobi Meyers sidelined last week.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: WR Johnson (IR, hamstring), EDGE Cameron Heyward (IR, groin), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (questionable, chest)
LV injuries: WR Meyers (questionable, concussion)

PIT DFS targets: Calvin Austin $3,400 DK / $5,000 FD (LV 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2022)
LV DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: Hunter Renfroe $3,700 DK / $5,100 FD (PIT fourth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2022), Raiders DST $3,200 DK / $3,400 FD (32nd in takeaway in 2022, PIT t-5th in giveaways in 2022)

Key stat: PIT is t-3rd in sacks in 2023 with nine; LV has yet to allow a sack in 2023

The Scoop: Harris leads the PIT backfield with 50 yards. Pickett throws for 210 yards and two TDs, finding George Pickens and Allen Robinson. Jacobs also gains 50 yards. Garoppolo throws for 230 yards and touchdowns to Adams and Meyers, and LV steals a win when Harris loses a fumble that Divine Deablo returns for a score. Raiders 21-17

THURSDAY NIGHT

N.Y. Giants (+10.5) at San Francisco, o/u 45
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

That must have been one heck of a halftime speech by Brian Daboll. The Giants were outscored 60-0 through their first six quarters, but last week's second-half comeback against the Cardinals at least allows them to come into this game with a 1-1 record. You can admire their resiliency, or raise an eyebrow at the fact they dug that deep a hole against Arizona in the first place, but either way their schedule isn't letting up — after this, Big Blue plays host to Seattle in Week 4 before road games against the Dolphins and Bills. A 2-4 start to the season might be the best-case scenario, and even that's looking iffy should Saquon Barkley be sidelined beyond Thursday. This offense has few reliable weapons as it is, and a backfield committee made up of Matt Breida, Gary Brightwell and fifth-round rookie Eric Gray isn't going to intimidate anyone. It's about to be time for Daniel Jones to earn his contract.

After dismantling the Steelers in their opener, the Niners survived a bit of a scare against the Rams last week, and while their plus-30 point differential is only half that of the Cowboys, the strength of schedule argument is definitely in favor of San Francisco when it comes to ridiculously premature "best team in the league" debates. Brock Purdy failed to throw multiple TDs last week for only the second time in eight career regular-season starts, but he did run one in to make up for it. The scary thing on the offensive side about the 49ers is that they aren't close to 100 percent yet and are still churning out 30 points a week like it's nothing. George Kittle, for instance, only has three catches and zero TDs in each of his first two games. That's not going to last. You can even say the same about the defense, as Nick Bosa doesn't have a sack yet after ending his holdout and signing a contract extension before Week 1. That should be a terrifying thought for the rest of the NFL.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: RB Barkley (out, ankle), WR Wan'Dale Robinson (questionable, knee)
SF injuries: WR Brandon Aiyuk (questionable, shoulder)

NYG DFS targets: Parris Campbell $3,200 DK / $5,500 FD (SF 30th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2022)
SF DFS targets: Christian McCaffrey $9,100 DK / $10,000 FD (NYG 32nd in rushing DVOA in 2022), Kittle $5,000 DK / $6,000 FD (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. TE in 2022)

NYG DFS fades: Breida $5,400 DK / $6,300 FD (SF second in rushing DVOA in 2022, second in rushing yards per game allowed, second in YPC allowed, first in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2022)
SF DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYG were 22nd in yards per play in 2022 (5.2) and are 25th in 2023 (4.6); SF was fourth in yards per play allowed in 2022 (5.0) and are fifth in 2023 (4.5)

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the high 60s, 10-15 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Breida ekes out for 40 yards. Jones throws for 240 yards and hits Campbell for a touchdown, but gets sacked five times and commits two turnovers, including an INT that Deommodore Lenoir returns to the house. McCaffrey piles up 130 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Purdy throws for 250 yards and two more TDs, both to Kittle. 49ers 35-13

Last week's record: 9-7, 7-8-1 ATS, 10-6 o/u
2023 record: 18-14, 15-15-2 ATS, 20-11-1 o/u