This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
SUNDAY
Kansas City vs. Philadelphia (+1.5), o/u 48.5
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST
And after all that, we end up with one of the Super Bowl matchups people could have predicted in August. Kansas City's road to a three-peat has been a wee bit controversial, and while I don't believe there was a conspiracy within the NFL to make sure Taylor Swift's main squeeze got this far — if nothing else, Roger Goodell isn't competent enough to pull something like that off — I can understand why people might be looking for a more sinister explanation for their success. The fact of the matter is, by the numbers, Kansas City has just been OK this season. The perennial AFC West champs finished 15th in points per game during the regular season, and outside the top 20 in yards per play. Patrick Mahomes' crew was elite in specific areas (second in third-down conversions, for instance), but Mahomes himself was barely top 10 in passing yards and TDs, and tied for 16th in QB rating. The defense was better, ranking fourth in PPG allowed, but it was just 12th in yards per play allowed and tied for 26th in third-down defense. Statistically, there was little that was special about KC, or that suggested it deserved to be one of the last two teams standing. Yeah, Travis Kelce's still capable of an occasional big game, and Xavier Worthy came on late, but this has very much been a roster that's more
SUNDAY
Kansas City vs. Philadelphia (+1.5), o/u 48.5
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST
And after all that, we end up with one of the Super Bowl matchups people could have predicted in August. Kansas City's road to a three-peat has been a wee bit controversial, and while I don't believe there was a conspiracy within the NFL to make sure Taylor Swift's main squeeze got this far — if nothing else, Roger Goodell isn't competent enough to pull something like that off — I can understand why people might be looking for a more sinister explanation for their success. The fact of the matter is, by the numbers, Kansas City has just been OK this season. The perennial AFC West champs finished 15th in points per game during the regular season, and outside the top 20 in yards per play. Patrick Mahomes' crew was elite in specific areas (second in third-down conversions, for instance), but Mahomes himself was barely top 10 in passing yards and TDs, and tied for 16th in QB rating. The defense was better, ranking fourth in PPG allowed, but it was just 12th in yards per play allowed and tied for 26th in third-down defense. Statistically, there was little that was special about KC, or that suggested it deserved to be one of the last two teams standing. Yeah, Travis Kelce's still capable of an occasional big game, and Xavier Worthy came on late, but this has very much been a roster that's more than the sum of its parts. Now that they're here, though, the two-time champs do have two clear edges on Philly — they have the better QB, and the better overall coaching staff. (If you want to slap head referee Ronald Torbert's face over Gimli's on the "And my axe!" LOTR meme too, I can't stop you.) We'll find out Sunday whether that's enough, or whether the game ends up as one-sided as the Kendrick Lamar-Drake feud.
When I say KC has the better coaching staff, I'm specifically talking about Andy Reid versus Nick Sirianni, who I think is massively overrated. (I'll also take Steve Spagnuolo over Kellen Moore. Vic Fangio's better than Matt Nagy, but Nagy isn't really calling the shots for the KC offense. Hmm, I'm almost talking myself into predicting the under.) I mean really — how do you lose three games with this roster? The real MVP for the Eagles is, and always has been, GM Howie Roseman. Not only did he sign Saquon Barkley this offseason to take advantage of perhaps the last burst of elite-level play from an aging offensive line, he snagged Zack Baun for a song and came out of the 2024 draft with Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, who were key to the secondary's turnaround. A.J. Brown would be the focal point of most NFL offenses; in Philly, he's essentially a luxury, with Barkley and the Brotherly Shove providing just about all the offense the team needs. Jalen Hurts did get to air it out a bit in the NFC championship romp over the Commanders, but he's topped 200 yards only twice in his last seven full games for a reason. Talent-wise, there just aren't any weak spots on the Eagles. If they fall short here, it'll be because Sirianni let them down, though I won't rule out Jalen Carter taking some boneheaded penalty at the wrong time either.
Key Info
KC injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
PHI injuries: WR DeVonta Smith (questionable, hamstring), EDGE Jalen Carter (questionable, illness)
DFS Lineup Optimizer
KC DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: A.J. Brown
KC DFS fades: Kareem Hunt, Hollywood Brown, Travis Kelce
PHI DFS fades: none
Weather notes: indoors
The Scoop
Hunt manages 60 yards. Mahomes throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, finding Worthy and JuJu Smith-Schuster while running in a TD of his own. Barkley caps his incredible campaign with 160 scrimmage yards and two scores, including a long game-sealing touchdown in the fourth quarter. Hurts throws for 230 yards and two TDs, one each to Brown and Dallas Goedert, while also running in a score. Eagles 38-24
Last week's record: 1-1, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 o/u
2024 playoff record: 7-5, 4-8 ATS, 6-6 o/u
2024 regular-season record:183-89, 141-128-3 ATS, 144-126-2 o/u
