NFL Game Previews: Eagles-Chiefs Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

Philadelphia (+2.5) at Kansas City, o/u 45.5
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

It's Kelce Bowl time! The Eagles come into this one as the only team left with only one loss, winning three straight before their bye since coming up short against the Jets. The offense has been on a bit of a mission over that stretch, averaging 32.3 points and 374 yards with Jalen Hurts producing 10 total TDs (eight passing, two rushing). Dallas finally managed to sort of contain A.J. Brown in Week 9, holding him to a mere 7-66-1 line on nine targets to end his record-setting run of six straight games with 125-plus receiving yards, and the former Titan is right there with Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb as guys with their eyes on the NFL's first 2,000-yard campaign by a wideout, or at least Calvin Johnson's all-time record of 1,964. Philly's secondary remains a bit of a sore spot despite its big-name talent, but at least the team should have a lot of confidence it can win a game with lots of fireworks if that's what it takes.

While brother Jason keeps his head down (literally, he's a center) and sticks to his various soup and chicken nuggies commercials, Travis Kelce continues to discover what it really means to be a celebrity. I do appreciate that the narrative around Travis's dating life seems to have shifted from, "Taylor's only with him for the clout!" (which, lol) to, "he's distracted and she's destroying his fantasy value!", which, also, lol. Believe it or nor, my dudes, he's gone two games in a row without a touchdown before. Hmm, I wonder who he was dating when he posted a 6-54-0 combined line in Weeks 13-14 of 2021. Anyway, Kansas City is back in the top seed in the AFC at 7-2 and got past Miami before getting last week off for their own bye. The offense's issues go beyond a mini-slump by Kelce; KC's scored more than 21 points only once in its last four games, and Patrick Mahomes committed an uncharacteristic six turnovers (four picks, two lost fumbles) during that stretch. Not having any wideouts he truly trusts can't help – Rashee Rice is getting there, but he still hasn't caught more than five passes or reached 75 yards in a game yet – but let's not forget that Matt Nagy is back as OC and not Eric Bieniemy, and he seems to have picked up some bad habits in Chicago. There's been plenty of "who's really calling the plays?" brouhaha in Kansas City during Andy Reid's tenure, and it's probably about time we had another one.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: TE Dallas Goedert (doubtful, forearm)
KC injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

PHI DFS targets: none
KC DFS targets: Kelce $8,100 DK / $8,000 FD (PHI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

PHI DFS fades: Brown $8,900 DK / $8,800 FD (KC fourth in DVOA vs. WR1)
KC DFS fades: Isiah Pacheco $6,300 DK / $6,100 FD and Jerick McKinnon $4,600 DK / $4,900 FD (PHI second in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, t-1st in rushing TDs allowed, second in passing DVOA vs. RB)

Key stat: KC is fourth in third-down conversions at 45.5 percent; PHI is 25th in third-down defense at 42.6 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 40s, 15-20 mph wind, 5-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: D'Andre Swift hits for 100 yards and a touchdown. Hurts throws for 250 yards and a TD to Brown. Pacheco grinds out 40 yards. Mahomes throws for 300 yards and three scores, one each to Kelce (who tops 100 yards), Rice and Justin Watson. Kansas City 24-23

EARLY SUNDAY

Dallas at Carolina (+10.5), o/u 42 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Hmm, the last time the Cowboys were coming off a thorough dismantling of a New York team, they fell on their faces against the Cardinals. Surely they've learned their lesson this time right? Last week's smackdown came courtesy of 404 passing yards and five total TDs from Dak Prescott, and it's Dallas – not Miami, not San Francisco, not even Detroit – that is the first team in the league to score 40 or more in three different games. And yet they're only 6-3, two wins back of Philly who they've already lost to once, so an NFC East title might be out of reach. Mike McCarthy's play-calling has also gotten away from Tony Pollard, who somehow hasn't gotten into the end zone since Week 1 and hasn't reached 60 rushing yards since the Cowboys' Week 7 bye. This is a great matchup in which to get him going, but the same could have been said for the Giants' game last week.

The Panthers are the proud owners of the worst record in the league at 1-8, but given that they sent next year's first-round pick to the Bears, they've got no incentive to stay there. (Also, the Giants and Patriots might be bigger messes right now at 2-8, so Carolina should have willing volunteers to take their spot in the basement.) Only three of the Panthers' losses have even been by a single score – they have more losses by 14 or more – but the defense has shown enough life despite a number of injuries that they could become a tough out in the second half once guys like Jaycee Horn begin to trickle back into the lineup, and if Bryce Young begins to figure things out. Easier said than done, though. He's failed to produce even a 5.0 YPA in the last two games, and that was against the Colts and Bears, not exactly defensive juggernauts. A Cowboys defense that's made a living taking turnovers to the house could be a lot more than the kid is ready for. Getting more support from his skill players would help too, but it's mostly been Adam Thielen or bust for Young.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
CAR injuries: TE Hayden Hurst (questionable, concussion), EDGE Justin Houston (IR, hamstring)

DAL DFS targets: Pollard $6,600 DK / $6,900 FD (CAR 31st in rushing DVOA, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed)
CAR DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: Brandin Cooks $4,700 DK / $5,900 FD (CAR fourth in DVOA vs. WR2)
CAR DFS fades: Young $5,100 DK / $6,400 FD (DAL fifth in passing DVOA, second in net passing yards per game allowed), Thielen $7,500 DK / $7,000 FD (DAL third in DVOA vs. WR1), Jonathan Mingo $3,400 DK / $5,000 FD (DAL second in DVOA vs. WR3), Panthers DST $2,200 DK / $3,000 FD (t-31st in takeaways, t-29th in sacks)

Key stat: DAL is 18th in red-zone conversions at 51.3 percent (20-for-39); CAR is 32nd in red-zone defense at 73.3 percent (22-for-30)

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Pollard breaks out with 100 yards and a score. Prescott throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, both to CeeDee Lamb (who tops 100 yards). Chuba Hubbard leads the CAR backfield with 40 yards. Young throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Tommy Tremble, and he gets intercepted twice including a pick-six by Jayron Kearse. Cowboys 31-13

Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Cleveland, o/u 34 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Another week, another skin-of-their-teeth win for the Steelers. They haven't won a game by more than seven points yet, but if it ain't broke, don't fix it, I guess? The offense has at least found something that works, as Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have combined for 340 rushing yards and three TDs over the last two games, with the latter finally moving into a true timeshare in the backfield rather than being limited to mainly a change-of-pace, passing-down role. This week's matchup against Cleveland supplies what will likely be the toughest front seven Pittsburgh faces the rest of the regular season, so this success on the ground could very well be sustainable. It'll need to be, as Kenny Pickett and the passing game just aren't clicking. Pickett's produced a grand total of three touchdowns (two passing, one running) over the last six games with a 62.4 percent completion rate and a 6.2 YPA. He doesn't make many mistakes, which isn't nothing, but it's no coincidence the Steelers are 1-3 when they can't hold their opponents below 20 points.

Scoring 20 could be a significant challenge for the Browns over their final eight contests, though. Deshaun Watson came out of last week's dramatic comeback win over the Ravens with what was feared to be a high-ankle sprain, but turns out he also picked up a fracture in his already banged-up shoulder and will undergo season-ending surgery. Watson's played a total of 12 games in two seasons since coming over from Houston, but not to worry, Cleveland fans, his dead cap hit if the Browns were to think about looking elsewhere this offseason for a more reliable option under center is only about $200 million. Having apparently seen enough of PJ Walker the last time Watson was out, Kevin Stefanski is going to turn to rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB instead for this one. DTR got picked off three times by the Ravens in his first NFL start, but he's had six whole weeks of practice since then. This move does kind of feel like Stefanski's given up on the season, but Walker's own 1:5 TD:INT in three starts may have forced his hand. And hey, the Jets have hung around in playoff contention with an elite defense and an error-prone QB, so why not the Browns too?

The Skinny

PIT injuries: TE Pat Freiermuth (IR-R, hamstring), EDGE Cameron Heyward (questionable, groin), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (questionable, hamstring)
CLE injuries: QB Watson (IR, shoulder)

PIT DFS targets: Steelers DST $3,500 DK / $4,000 FD (t-1st in takeaways, CLE 32nd in giveaways)
CLE DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: Pickett $4,800 DK / $6,400 FD (CLE first in passing DVOA, first in net passing yards per game allowed, t-3rd in passing TDs allowed), Harris $5,100 DK / $6,700 FD and Warren $5,100 DK / $6,300 FD (CLE first in rushing DVOA), Diontae Johnson $5,000 DK / $6,600 FD (CLE first in DVOA vs. WR1), Freiermuth $2,500 DK / $5,000 FD and Connor Heyward $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (CLE first in DVOA vs. TE)
CLE DFS fades: David Njoku $3,900 DK / $5,500 FD (PIT second in DVOA vs. TE)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 7-4-1 PIT, average score 24-20 PIT, average margin of victory 11 points. PIT has won four of the last five meetings overall, but is 1-3-1 over the last five games at Cleveland Browns (And Definitely Not Named After Those Other Guys) Stadium

Key stat: PIT is t-19th in red-zone conversions at 50.0 percent (9-for-18), and has made the fewest red-zone trips in the league; CLE is 27th in red-zone defense at 65.0 percent (13-for-20), and is tied for fewest red-zone trips allowed with SF

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, 10-15 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Harris leads the PIT backfield with 50 yards. Pickett throws for under 200 yards but does find Calvin Austin for a score. Jerome Ford churns out 70 yards, while Kareem Hunt scores a red-zone TD. Thompson-Robinson throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Steelers 16-13

Chicago (+9) at Detroit, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

If the season had ended last week, the Bears would be picking fifth in the 2024 draft (as well as first, thanks to the Panthers' pick.) If Chicago decided to stick with Justin Fields as its franchise QB, they will have the draft capital to really transform the roster around him, and if they decide to give Fields the boot and draft a new quarterback, well, that plan looks pretty good too. The third-year signal-caller looks like he'll be back this week after missing the last four games with a thumb injury, and while there's been some incremental improvements in his passing numbers in 2023, a 61.7 percent completion rate and 7.4 YPA don't scream face of the franchise, even if they are career highs. DC Alan Williams is getting good effort from his charges too, and Chicago's gone 3-3 over its last six games largely because the defense has held four of the last six opponents to 20 points or less. Khalil Herbert could also rejoin the backfield, but the final weeks of the season are going to be all about evaluating Fields. That probably bodes well for DJ Moore and Cole Kmet, since Fields has to throw to somebody, and fourth-round rookie Tyler Scott might start seeing his volume rise as well.

The Lions have won six of seven and still can't seem to shake the Vikings in the NFC North, which is probably beginning to make Detroit fans nervous given, y'know, the last three decades. I don't think they really have much to worry about at the moment, though. David Montgomery returned last week and put the offense effectively back at full strength, and the result was 41 points against the Chargers. (Of course, the defense also gave up 38 for the second time in three games, but I did say they didn't have much to worry about.) Jared Goff is also starting to shake that Home Warrior label too, throwing for 970 yards and a 4:1 TD:INT over his last three road starts. More touchdowns would be nice, but when Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are busy running around and through defenses, Goff can pick his spots.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: RB D'Onta Foreman (questionable, ankle), RB Herbert (IR-R, ankle), LB Tremaine Edmunds (questionable, knee)
DET injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

CHI DFS targets: none
DET DFS targets: Goff $6,600 DK / $7,900 FD (CHI 29th in passing DVOA, 31st in passing TDs allowed)

CHI DFS fades: none
DET DFS fades: Montgomery $6,500 DK / $7,700 FD (CHI sixth in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed, t-3rd in rushing TDs allowed)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 CHI, average score 24-23 CHI, average margin of victory eight points. CHI had won four straight meetings at Ford Field prior to DET's 41-10 rout in Week 17 of last season
Key stat: DET is 15th in third-down conversions at 39.7 percent; CHI is t-30th in third-down defense at 45.5 percent

The Scoop: Herbert leads the CHI backfield with 70 yards and a score. Fields throws for under 200 yards but adds 40 on the ground and throws a touchdown to Kmet. Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 110 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD, while Montgomery also gets into the end zone. Goff throws for 340 yards and three more scores, finding Amon-Ra St. Brown (who tops 100 yards), Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams. Lions 38-20

L.A. Chargers at Green Bay (+3), o/u 44 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

While they've lost three of their last five, the Chargers are still hanging around the AFC wild-card picture, and it's not like Kansas City has put any distance between themselves and the rest of the division either. Justin Herbert looked like his usual self last week in a barn burner with the Lions, and he appears to be finally getting past the fractured finger on his left hand. Unfortunately, his receiving options are beginning to dwindle. Mike Williams is done for the year, Joshua Palmer is out indefinitely, Keenan Allen is banged up, and neither of his tight ends are in tip-top shape either. All those injuries led to Quentin Johnston scoring his first NFL touchdown last week, and the rookie may need to come up very big down the stretch if the Bolts are going to make the playoffs. Their secret weapon has been an erratic but aggressive defense – they're 4-2 when DC Derrick Ansley's crew gets multiple takeaways, and 0-3 when they don't – but Herbert and the offense have to take full advantage of those extra chances.

The Packers are in an even worse skid, dropping five of their last six, but there was also a glimmer of hope for them last week thanks to the play of their QB. Jordan Love threw for a career-high 289 yards despite completing under 60 percent of his passes again, and the gap between his actual completion percentage and expected completion percentage remains the biggest in the league (-5.1 percent) among quarterbacks who have started all year. That lack of efficiency is partially about his decision-making, but Green Bay's young receiving corps also isn't getting much separation – over 20 percent of Love's attempts have come into what Next Gen Stats calls tight coverage, the second-highest rate in the NFL behind Kenny Pickett, another QB who could use some more help from his wideouts. Maybe if Christian Watson ever gets healthy, he can help out in that area.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: WR Allen (questionable, shoulder), WR Palmer (IR, knee), TE Gerald Everett (questionable, chest), TE Donald Parham (questionable, hip)
GB injuries: RB Aaron Jones (questionable, hamstring), WR Watson (questionable, shoulder), LB Quay Walker (questionable, groin), S Rudy Ford (questionable, biceps)

LAC DFS targets: Allen $9,000 DK / $9,300 FD (GB 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
GB DFS targets: Love $5,600 DK / $7,300 FD (LAC 32nd in net passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed), Jones $6,200 DK / $7,000 FD (LAC 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Watson $4,600 DK / $5,700 FD (LAC 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)

LAC DFS fades: Jalen Guyton $3,300 DK / $5,600 FD (GB firhst in DVOA vs. WR3)
GB DFS fades: Packers DST $2,300 DK / $3,700 FD (t-29th in takeaways, LAC first in giveaways)

Key stat: LAC are second in red-zone conversions at 72.4 percent (21-for-29); GB is 10th in red-zone defense at 48.3 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Austin Ekeler collects 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Herbert throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Allen, Johnston and Stone Smartt. Jones puts together 60 yards. Love throws for 270 yards and two scores, hitting Watson and Luke Musgrave, and he also runs in a TD. Chargers 34-24

Arizona (+5) at Houston, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Kyler Murray's return to the lineup last was a big success (unless you want the Cardinals to tank for a new QB, in which case it was a nightmare.) While he didn't throw for a TD he did run for one, and both his arm talent and, err, leg talent were on full display on a game-winning two-minute drill. At 2-8, Arizona would be picking fourth right now in the 2024 draft, and neither New England nor the Giants seems like they're going to turn things around any time soon. Then again, the pick they got from Houston (as part of the Texans' moving up last year for Will Anderson) has fallen into the range where they could an elite-non QB with their own pick and still have a shot at the second tier of QBs, i.e. not Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Whether landing a kid like J.J. McCarthy would be incentive enough to move on from Murray is iffy, though. There's at least a couple more winnable games on the schedule, so if he plays well down the stretch, he improves his job security in two ways. This roster has plenty of other bigger holes in it, anyway.

The C.J. Stroud Show played to rave reviews last week in Cincy, and the Texans are just one game back of the Jaguars for the AFC South crown. The funny thing is, in some ways Stroud had his worst game in the NFL (he committed multiple turnovers for the first time, for instance) but that game-winning drive was incredible. The 22-year-old remains on pace to not just set a new rookie record, he might become the 10th quarterback in league history with a 5,000-yard season – he's currently on track for 4,960. (The full list of QBs who have hit 5k: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger, Dan Marino, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert... and Jameis Winston, the forgotten yardage king.) He's also putting up these numbers while throwing to a group of receivers who aren't exactly household names. I mean, Noah Brown – essentially a blocking specialist with the Cowboys – has posted a 13-325-1 line over the last two games. Tank Dell, a 5-8 rookie receiver taken in the third round this year, has gone off for a 12-170-3 line in those wins.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: RB Emari Demercado (questionable, toe), TE Zach Ertz (IR, quadriceps)
HOU injuries: RB Dameon Pierce (questionable, ankle), WR Nico Collins (questionable, calf), WR Brown (questionable, knee), K Ka'imi Fairbairn (IR, quadriceps)

ARI DFS targets: none
HOU DFS targets: Stroud $7,000 DK / $8,000 FD (ARI 30th in passing DVOA), Collins $6,700 DK / $7,200 FD (32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Dell $5,900 DK / $7,000 FD (ARI 31st in DVOA vs. WR3, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws)

ARI DFS fades: none
HOU DFS fades: none

Key stat: HOU is 13th in third-down conversions at 41.1 percent; ARI is 29th in third-down defense at 44.4 percent

The Scoop: James Conner runs for 60 yards and a touchdown. Murray throws for under 200 yards but hits Trey McBride for a score. Devin Singletary leads the HOU backfield with 50 yards. Stroud throws for 310 yards and four TDs, one each to Collins (who tops 100 yards), Dell, Dalton Schultz and John Metchie. Derek Stingley also returns an INT to the house. Texans 38-17

Tennessee (+6.5) at Jacksonville, o/u 40 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Well, maybe Will Levis won't save the Titans' season after all. I could say something snarky about the Atlanta defense letting him look like C.J. Stroud, or maybe Tennessee OC Tim Kelly for ruining Levis so quickly and efficiently, but whatever the reason for the 2023 second-round pick's sudden crash back down to earth, he's taken the team with him. The Titans are in the AFC South basement and staring down the barrel of a top-10 pick in next year's draft. The defense has been doing its usual solid job – nobody's yet scored more than 27 points against them – but the offense has scored 16 or less in six of nine games, which is New York levels of futility. Derrick Henry can still be a beast and averaged 5.1 yards a carry in the five games prior to running into Tampa Bay's front seven, and Tyjae Spears continues to run like every game could be his last (because, well, it might), but with no passing threat to speak of, there may not be many wins left on the schedule aside from a Week 12 meeting with Carolina. I refuse to believe that Levis' debut was a total fluke, though. If he threw for four TDs once, he's capable of doing it again. The question is whether the scheme he's in, and the lack of receiving talent around him aside from DeAndre Hopkins, will allow him to show it with any consistency.

The Jaguars saw their five-game win streak end last week at the hands of a frustrated 49ers squad, but the loss was so brutal and lopsided it almost feels like Jacksonville's season is on the brink. It's not. The Jags are still atop the division, and they still beat playoff-caliber teams like the Bills and Steelers during their perfect October. It would be nice if the passing game could show more life, though. Trevor Lawrence has thrown multiple TDs only once in the last seven games, posting a 7:5 TD:INT over that stretch, and while his 68.7 percent completion rate in that run is excellent, he's just not attacking downfield and is instead focused on getting the ball out so quickly, guys like Calvin Ridley don't have time to get deep. Only Tua Tagovailoa has a lower average time to throw in the league, but Tua's getting the ball in the hands of speedsters and YAC monsters like Tyreek Hill. Christian Kirk does a lot of things well, but yards after catch isn't one of them.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: WR Treylon Burks (out, concussion)
JAC injuries: WR Zay Jones (questionable, knee)

TEN DFS targets: none
JAC DFS targets: Ridley $5,400 DK / $6,500 FD (TEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Jaguars DST $3,400 DK / $4,300 FD (t-1st in takeaways, TEN 29th in sacks allowed)

TEN DFS fades: Henry $6,300 DK / $7,500 FD (JAC third in rushing DVOA, fifth in rushing yards per game allowed)
JAC DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 TEN, average score 25-17 TEN, average margin of victory 14 points. TEN had won five straight meetings and nine of 10 before JAC swept last season's series by a combined score of 56-38
Key stat: TEN is 31st in red-zone conversions at 32.1 percent (9-for-28); JAC is seventh in red-zone defense at 45.2 percent (14-for-31)

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Henry rumbles for 60 yards and a touchdown. Levis throws for under 200 yards, gets sacked five times and picked off twice, one of which gets returned to the house by Rayshawn Jenkins. Travis Etienne churns out 70 combined yards. Lawrence throws for 290 yards and two scores, hitting Ridley and Kirk. Jaguars 27-16

Las Vegas (+12.5) at Miami, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Well, I guess the East Coast versus West Coast debate is finally settled. NWA fan Antonio Pierce began his interim stint with the Raiders by sweeping two games against the New York teams, stomping the hapless Giants two weeks ago before squeaking past the Jets when Zach Wilson made the last mistake instead of Aidan O'Connell. None of it feels sustainable, but it's always fun to watch a team take those first few deep breaths of freedom after ditching an awful head coach. Josh Jacobs has been especially happy, galloping for 214 rushing yards and two TDs over the last two games – the first two games this season, incidentally, in which the Raiders have netted triple-digit rushing yards. O'Connell still seems to be in over his head right now, not surprising for a rookie fourth-round pick, but he at least was smart enough to send 13 targets Davante Adams' way. I still think Vegas is more likely to wind up with a top-10 pick than a playoff spot, but I'm kind of rooting for them to make me look dumb for putting that in print.

The Dolphins kicked back on their bye week and watched the Bills implode a little bit more, and while they're only one win up on Buffalo for the AFC East title, they look to be in great position to take it home. The offense was sputtering a bit prior to the week off, but getting held in check by Philly and Kansas City can happen to the best of them. Miami stands a good chance of getting De'Von Achane back for Week 11, and even if the rookie RB gets a bit more rest before returning, Mike McDaniel still has plenty of toys to play with. It's the defense that's really going to determine whether the Dolphins are Super Bowl contenders, or just another high-flying offense that gets grounded in January. The unit is about as healthy as it'll get coming into this one, and it's interesting to note that while Bradley Chubb and company are third in the league in pressure rate, they're only sixth in sack rate and ninth in raw sacks. If Jalen Ramsey's presence in the secondary buys the pass rush another fraction of a second... well, Miami could have a very productive fantasy defense the rest of the way.

The Skinny

LV injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
MIA injuries: RB Achane (IR-R, knee)

LV DFS targets: Michael Mayer $2,700 DK / $4,700 FD (MIA 28th in DVOA vs. TE)
MIA DFS targets: Raheem Mostert $6,900 DK / $7,800 FD (LV 27th in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 26th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

LV DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIA is first in red-zone conversions at 75.0 percent (24-for-32); LV is 25th in red-zone defense at 63.3 percent (19-for-30)

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, 9-10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jacobs gains 80 yards and a TD. O'Connell throws for under 200 yards and a score to Adams, getting sacked six times. Mostert leads the MIA backfield with 130 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving, while Achane also scores in his return. Tua Tagovailoa throws for 370 yards and three more TDs, one each to Tyreek Hill, Cedrick Wilson and Alec Ingold. Dolphins 45-14

N.Y. Giants (+9.5) at Washington, o/u 37 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

On the bright side, the Giants don't have to play the Cowboys any more this season. Big Blue's train wreck of a season drags on, and while they are putting themselves in position to land one of the Big Two QBs in the 2024 draft (assuming they don't idiotically stick with Daniel Jones), in the here and now they're dangerously close to being down to their fourth-string quarterback as Tommy DeVito came out of last week's curb-stomping with a sore shoulder. Really, switching to Matt Barkley might be an improvement, as while his career numbers aren't good, they're better than what DeVito has stumbled to in his first three NFL games. To be fair to the undrafted rookie, he's had some tough matchups to begin his career, and this might be the first time he'll be facing a defense that will allow him to get comfortable. He still has the equivalent of a junk drawer worth of receiving options to throw to though, and is facing a massive headwind from a Giants defense that just gave up a mind-blogging 640 yards to a team that rested its starters in the fourth quarter, so let's not expect any miracles here.

The Commanders are 4-6 and have dropped three of their last four, including handing New York one of its two wins on the year, but they're still in that limbo between truly tanking and kind of hanging around the edge of the wild-card scene, which is the worst place to be. The front office made it clear at the trade deadline that a rebuild's coming, but Sam Howell and the offense keep doing just enough to make things interesting. I still don't understand how a team that hung 31 points on the Eagles – twice! -- only managed seven against the Giants in Week 7, but OC Eric Bieniemy will get his chance to rectify that here. Howell's thrown for over 300 yards in three straight games since then with an 8:2 TD:INT and 68.8 percent completion rate, but there's still something off about this passing game. Jahan Dotson looks like he's finally building some momentum, then gets held without a catch on only two targets last week – the second time this season he's posted a goose egg. Terry McLaurin has yet to post a 100-yard game. Meanwhile, a rotating cast of slot options keeps coming up big, and Logan Thomas has stayed mostly healthy and been productive. If that sounds like Bieniemy just has Howell getting rid of the ball super quickly... he's not. The second-year QB's average pop time is 2.78 seconds, which puts him among the likes of Baker M ayfield and Gardner Minshew in the middle of the pack. His average air yards per attempt is also about average; he's not launching bombs like C.J. Stroud or Jalen Hurts, but he's also not dinking and dunking like Mac Jones or Bryce Young. Hmm. Does that mean there's untapped upside here?

The Skinny

NYG injuries: QB Jones (IR, knee), QB Tyrod Taylor (IR, ribs), TE Darren Waller (IR, hamstring), K Graham Gano (IR, knee)
WAS injuries: RB Antonio Gibson (doubtful, toe), LB Cody Barton (IR, ankle)

NYG DFS targets: DeVito $5,000 DK / $6,300 FD (WAS 31st in passing DVOA, 29th in net passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Darius Slayton $3,200 DK / $5,400 FD (WAS 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
WAS DFS targets: Brian Robinson $5,800 DK / $7,200 FD (NYG 30th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed)

NYG DFS fades: none
WAS DFS fades: Thomas $3,700 DK / $5,300 FD (NYG fourth in DVOA vs. TE)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-3-1 NYG, average score 23-19 NYG, average margin of victory eight points. Six of the last eight meetings have been decided by a single score, including NYG's 14-7 victory in Week 7, and a seventh wasn't decided at all – a 20-20 tie in Week 13 of 2022
Key stat: NYG are 30th in red-zone conversions at 38.5 percent (10-for-26); WAS is 14th in red-zone defense at 51.6 percent (16-for-31)

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the mid-50s, 10-15 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Saquon Barkley puts together 80 combined yards. DeVito throws for under 200 yards but does find Slayton for a score. Robinson bangs out 70 yards and a TD. Howell throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, hitting McLaurin and Dotson. Commanders 24-10

LATE SUNDAY

Tampa Bay (+11.5) at San Francisco, o/u 41.5
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Bucs rebounded from getting Strouded to beat the Titans last week, snapping a four-game losing streak. They're below .500, but they're also in the NFC South, so a division crown is still very much in reach, and their second-half schedule isn't all that fearsome after this one – they still have both their games against the Panthers coming up, plus road trips to Indy, Atlanta and Green Bay. Baker Mayfield has a 6:1 TD:INT and 7.7 YPA over the last three weeks, but the big story on the offensive side is that OC Dave Canales has finally found a way to make Rachaad White effective. He's got 425 scrimmage yards over the last four games, with more than half of that coming through the air, and he's found the end zone three times in that stretch. He's still only averaging 3.2 yards a carry in that time, mind you, but if he keeps doing damage as a receiver, his starting role won't be in much jeopardy. It's not like he has much competition anyway – since coming off IR, Chase Edmonds has netted 22 scrimmage yards on 14 touches over three games, while rookie Sean Tucker is barely holding onto a special-teams role and Ke'Shawn Vaughn is still the 'break glass in case of emergency' guy.

I think it's safe to say that the 49ers used their bye week effectively. Last Sunday's 34-3 drubbing of the Jaguars in Jacksonville put San Francisco right back in the "best team in the league" conversation, and swept that pesky three-game losing streak in which the offense looked out of sorts right under the rug. It's probably not a coincidence that Deebo Samuel was back in the lineup last week, and that he played only eight snaps during the three-game skid. Kyle Shanahan's scheme is primarily rooted in deception, and in not giving the defense a clue what's coming based on how the Niners line up, and Samuel's versatility plays a huge part in that pre-snap game of three-card monte Shanahan likes to play. Christian McCaffrey is the team's biggest weapon of course, but Samuel is the key cog that keeps the machine running. It's telling that the only interceptions Brock Purdy has tossed all year came when Samuel was off the field, and a reminder that while his strengths make him a perfect fit for the Niners' offense, he also fell to the seventh round for a reason. If something's amiss in the scheme, Purdy won't be able to compensate with athleticism or pure arm strength.

The Skinny

TB injuries: LB Devin White (questionable, foot), S Ryan Neal (out, thumb)
SF injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

TB DFS targets: none
SF DFS targets: Jauan Jennings $3,600 DK / $5,000 FD (TB 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

TB DFS fades: Chris Godwin $6,600 DK / $6,500 FD (SF third in DVOA vs. WR2), Cade Otton $3,400 DK / $4,900 FD (SF third in DVOA vs. TE)
SF DFS fades: McCaffrey $9,300 DK / $10,000 (TB t-3rd in rushing TDs allowed, first in passing DVOA vs. RB), 49ers DST $3,900 DK / $4,000 FD (TB t-2nd in giveaways, t-4th in sacks allowed)

Key stat: SF is fifth in third-down conversions at 44.8 percent; TB is 32nd in third-down defense at 47.2 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, 10-15 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: White picks up 60 combined yards. Mayfield throws for 250 yards and two TDs, hitting Mike Evans and Trey Palmer. McCaffrey sprints for 100 scrimmage yards. Purdy throws for 310 yards and four scores, two to Deebo and one each to Jennings and George Kittle. 49ers 31-17

N.Y. Jets (+7) at Buffalo, o/u 40 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

It's funny how in a league where narratives can change weekly, the destinies of both these teams seemed to get locked into place back in Week 1. The Jets lost Aaron Rodgers, won the game in OT anyway thanks to a heroic defensive effort, and have spent the rest of the year trying to coax enough production out of Zach Wilson to stay relevant. At 4-5 they're not just in the playoff picture, they're within striking distance of the AFC East title, but it's really tough to imagine them playing into January unless Rodgers really does make a miraculous comeback. (BTW, I'm skeptical that'll happen – to put it mildly. He's doing a very good job of trolling the media with his "maybe mid-December... syke, just joking. Or am I?" routine and keeping his name in people's mouths, but a three-month turnaround after Achilles surgery would be bonkers.) Wilson's struggles have been tough to watch, though. He's thrown one TD pass in the last five games while committing six turnovers, and the latter tend to come at the worst possible times. The Jets could probably live with the sub-60 percent completion rate and 6.1 YPA if he just held onto the dang ball. The lack of a threat through the air is hurting Breece Hall's production on the ground, but somehow Garrett Wilson has reached 80 receiving yards in four straight contests, accounting for over 38 percent of Zach's passing yardage during that stretch. If he were playing in a real offense, Garrett would probably be in the conversation with guys like Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown for overall WR1 status going into 2024 drafts.

As for the Bills, Josh Allen committed four turnovers in that Week 1 loss, and it's been more of the same ever since. He committed a career-worst 19 giveaways in 2022 (14 INTs, five lost fumbles), but in 2023 he's already given the ball away 14 times in 10 games. That erratic play has left Buffalo with a shocking 5-5 record after last week's loss at home to the Broncos, and it cost OC Ken Dorsey his job, with QB coach and former Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady stepping into the role. Brady didn't have much talent to work with in his two years running the show for Carolina – his starting QBs were Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Darnold, and between injuries and the trade to San Francisco he only had Christian McCaffrey for 10 games – but it's still not an encouraging resume. At the very least, he should be smart enough to get the ball to Stefon Diggs more often, and the team's top wideout has only seen 12 targets over the last two games combined. Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid has 17 over the same stretch.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: QB Rodgers (IR, Achilles), WR Wilson (questionable, elbow)
BUF injuries: TE Dawson Knox (IR, wrist)

NYJ DFS targets: Allen Lazard $3,500 DK / $5,900 FD (BUF 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
BUF DFS targets: Bills DST $4,000 DK / $4,800 FD (second in sacks, fourth in pressure rate, NYJ 30th in sacks allowed)

NYJ DFS fades: none
BUF DFS fades: Allen $8,200 DK / $9,000 FD (NYJ fourth in passing DVOA, third in net passing yards per game allowed, second in YPA allowed, t-3rd in passing TDs allowed), Gabe Davis $5,500 DK / $6,400 FD (NYJ first in DVOA vs. WR2)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 BUF, average score 23-16 BUF, average margin of victory 11 points. BUF has won three straight meetings at Highmark Stadium by an average score of 25-13. Since 2018, NYJ haven't scored more than 27 points in any meeting in this rivalry and been held to 20 or less nine times in 11 games, while BUF has scored more than 27 only twice and been held to 20 or less six times.
Key stat: NYJ are 32nd in red-zone conversions at 22.7 percent (5-for-22); BUF is ninth in red-zone defense at 46.9 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-30s, 15-20 mph wind, 10-20 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Hall manages 50 yards and a touchdown. ZWilson throws for under 200 yards and gets sacked five times. James Cook picks up 90 yards and a receiving TD. Allen throws for 240 yards and a second score to Diggs while running in a touchdown of his own. Bills 24-10

Seattle at L.A. Rams (+1), o/u 46 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Seahawks' whole season basically comes down to the next month. After this week's game against the Rams, who generally give them trouble, their next four games run vs. SF, at DAL, at SF, vs. PHI. Woof. Seattle's at 6-3 now and is only behind San Francisco in the NFC West on a tiebreaker, but it's wouldn't be a huge shock if they were .500 or worse on the other side of that brutal gauntlet. Geno Smith has thrown multiple touchdowns in three of the last four games, and he's beginning to look more like his 2022 self – all three of his completions of 40 yards or longer this season have come in the last three weeks. He might need to start slinging it more often, as the progress the defense showed against easily bullied opponents has evaporated against the Ravens and Commanders the last couple weeks.

The Rams have lost three straight and four of the last five, but last week's bye bought Matthew Stafford enough time to get past his thumb injury. I'm not sure that actually makes a huge difference, though. The 35-year-old has looked like the end was near all season – he's got a sub-60 percent completion rate for the first time in a decade, and he's trending toward his worst TD rate since 2012, when he needed 727 attempts to get just 20 passing touchdowns. As recently as 2019, Stafford tossed 19 TDs in only eight games; this year he's got eight in eight games. Cooper Kupp hasn't reached 50 receiving yards in three straight games, and Brett Rypien was only under center for one of them. Shockingly, Royce Freeman wasn't the savior for the backfield either, although Kyren Williams could be back next week. The offensive struggles are masking what's been a pretty impressive job from Aaron Donald and his relatively no-name sidekicks on defense; the only two teams to hang more than 24 points on the Rams this season have been the 49ers and Cowboys, and they forced Seattle to punt it four straight times in the second half during that Week 1 win, although the Seahawks' collapse after the half was pretty much a full team effort.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: WR Tyler Lockett (questionable, hamstring)
LAR injuries: RB Williams (IR, ankle)

SEA DFS targets: Noah Fant $2,900 DK / $4,600 FD (LAR 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
LAR DFS targets: none

SEA DFS fades: Jaxon Smith-Njigba $4,300 DK / $5,500 FD (LAR third in DVOA vs. WR3)
LAR DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 8-4 LAR, average score 25-21 LAR, average margin of victory eight points. LAR had won four straight home meetings prior to a 27-23 SEA victory in Week 13 of 2022
Key stat: SEA is 10th in net yards per play at 0.37; LAR are 17th at -0.07

The Scoop: Kenneth Walker picks up 60 yards, while Zach Charbonnet gets into the end zone. Smith throws for 270 yards and three touchdowns, two to DK Metcalf (who tops 100 yards) and one to Fant. Darrell Henderson leads the LAR backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and a score. Stafford throws for 220 yards and two TDs, finding Kupp and Tutu Atwell. Seahawks 28-24

SUNDAY NIGHT

Minnesota (+2.5) at Denver, o/u 43 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Coming into this week, the Vikings are the hottest team in the ... wait, that can't be right. These guys have won five straight? Damn. Last year's success in close games is starting to look a bit less like a fluke and more like good coaching – Minnesota's played only one game so far in 2023 settled by more than one score, and while the Vikes have actually lost some of them this time around, they still have a winning record in them including four straight victories. Joshua Dobbs has played incredibly well after being airdropped onto the roster in the wake of Kirk Cousins' injury, and I actually wonder at this point what kind of prop bet you could get now on Alexander Mattison not leading the Vikings in rushing yards by the end of the year. Mattison's got 461 yards through 10 games and may not play this week; Dobbs already has 110 rushing yards (and two rushing TDs) in two games. It's a big gap, but with seven games left on the schedule and this team once again somehow powered by pure magic, I'm not ruling anything out. Oh, and Dobb s might get to throw to Justin Jefferson for the first time this week, which'll be nice.

The Broncos have picked themselves up off the mat, and a team that looked absolutely done through six weeks has suddenly won three straight, including the top two seeds in the AFC from 2022. Yeah, sure, Denver lost to the Jets in Week 5, but that doesn't mean Sean Payton's a worse coach than Nathaniel Hackett. Much like the Jets though, it's been the defense (16.8 PPG allowed over the last four) dragging the team kicking and screaming to whatever success they've had, despite the rough play of their QB, who's name is also Wilson. Huh. Russell Wilson's a bit older than Zach, and he hasn't been as turnover-prone, but five consecutive games with less than 200 passing yards is not what the Broncos are paying him over $40 million a year to produce. Javonte Williams is at least rolling, collecting 304 scrimmage yards over the last three games with a couple receiving TDs, and Courtland Sutton left no doubt who the team's top wideout was with this absurd catch last week. The close-up shot of the toe-tap doesn't even really do it justice, since Sutton wasn't just standing near the sideline waiting for the pass – he was on a dead sprint from the middle of the end zone to get open in the corner while Wilson scrambled away from danger. If Denver ends up keeping only one of Sutton or Jerry Jeudy in the offseason, I think the decision just got made for them.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: RB Mattison (questionable, concussion), WR Jefferson (IR-R, hamstring), LB Jordan Hicks (IR. shin)
DEN injuries: TE Greg Dulcich (IR, hamstring)

MIN DFS targets: Dobbs $5,700 DK / $7,500 FD (DEN 32nd in passing DVOA, 31st in YPA allowed), Mattison $5,400 DK / $6,400 FD and Ty Chandler $4,800 DK / $5,900 FD (DEN 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed)
DEN DFS targets: none

MIN DFS fades: none
DEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIN is seventh in net yards per play at 0.61; DEN is 31st at -1.23

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the high 40s, 10-20 mph wind, 40-50 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ty Chandler leads the MIN backfield with 70 combined yards and a score. Dobbs runs for 40 yards and throws for 220, but he does hit a returning Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson for TDs. Williams puts together 80 yards and a touchdown. Wilson throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Jeudy. Vikings 24-17

THURSDAY NIGHT

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Baltimore, o/u 46 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The AFC North remains the most fun division in football from a pure chaos perspective, and both these teams come into Thursday wondering how the heck they lost last week. The Bengals weren't the first team to get Strouded this year, and they definitely won't be the last in his career, but it was still stunning to see a defense that had allowed 18 points or less to the Bills, 49ers and Seahawks in its prior three games get shredded by the rookie QB. Cincy's still above .500 though, and Joe Burrow continues his resurgence, throwing multiple TDs in five straight games with a 74.1 percent completion rate over that stretch. His YPA has also jumped up to 8.4 in the three games since the team's bye. Burrow won't have Tee Higgins available again on the short week, but Ja'Marr Chase could go off with Marlon Humphrey banged up again for the Ravens, and secondary targets have been stepping up in recent weeks. This is probably a must-win for the Bengals if they want to keep their hopes of a division title alive; they lost the first meeting in Week 2 when Burrow wasn't yet 100 percent, and being three wins back of Baltimore with seven to play, which would be essentially four wins due to the tiebreaker, might be asking too much.

The Ravens, on the other hand, lost in more inexplicable and gut-wrenching fashion. They were up 17-3 on the Browns after one quarter and 31-17 with less than 12 minutes left in the fourth, and the Baltimore just suddenly collapsed against Deshaun Watson – who was operating with what turned out to be a fractured throwing shoulder, as well as a high-ankle sprain. A fluky pick-six on a Lamar Jackson bullet that bounced straight up into the air off a helmet certainly didn't help, but a Ravens team that had held five opponents this season to 17 points or less coughed up 16 in nine minutes to close out Week 10. Fortunately, they could probably afford it, as they're still on top of the division at 7-3. Jackson's led the team to more than 30 points in four straight contests, and OC Todd Monken has a new toy to play with in Keaton Mitchell. The rookie RB has erupted for exactly 200 scrimmage yards over the last two weeks with two rushing TDs, even as Gus Edwards has scored seven rushing touchdowns over the last four. The aerial attack is still muddling along, but with the backfield producing those kinds of numbers, it can afford to.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: WR Higgins (out, hamstring)
BAL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

CIN DFS targets: none
BAL DFS targets: Edwards $5,900 DK / $6,800 FD and Mitchell $4,800 DK / $5,500 FD (CIN 29th in rushing DVOA, 31st in YPC allowed), Mark Andrews $6,700 DK / $7,200 FD (CIN 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

CIN DFS fades: Burrow $6,800 DK / $7,800 FD (BAL second in passing DVOA, first in YPA allowed, first in passing TDs allowed), Trenton Irwin $3,600 DK / $5,300 FD (BAL second in DVOA vs. WR2)
BAL DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 7-5 BAL, average score 25-22 BAL, average margin of victory 15 points. Three of the last four meetings have been decided by a single score, but before that the teams had a five-game stretch in which the smallest margin was 20 points
Key stat: BAL sixth in third-down conversions at 44.1 percent; CIN 26th in third-down defense at 43.1 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Joe Mixon grinds out 60 yards. Burrow throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, finding Chase and Trayveon Williams. Mitchell leads the BAL backfield with 110 yards and a TD, while Edwards also punches home a short score. Jackson adds a third rushing touchdown while also throwing for 240 yards and two TDs, hitting Andrews and Rashod Bateman. Ravens 35-21

Last week's record: 8-6, 6-8 ATS, 7-7 o/u
2023 record: 87-63, 71-75-4 ATS, 80-67-3 o/u