This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.
The NFL playoffs continue with a two-game Saturday slate for the divisional round. The action kicks off with Houston-Kansas City at 4:30 p.m. EST, followed by Washington-Detroit at 8:00 p.m. Yahoo will continue to run NFL DFS contests throughout the postseason, and Saturday's biggest contest is the NFL $40K Saturday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $40,000 to the top 425 finishers, including $10,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 70 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 2,345 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay.
Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared toward head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.
Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your Saturday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Saturday's suggested options include a stack built around a QB with a history of prolific playoff performances, as well as a RB that's ready to roll in his return from injury and a backup that could be thrust into a larger role.
QUARTERBACK
Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. HOU ($33): Mahomes had a down year by his lofty standards but rounded into form down the stretch, throwing for 580 yards and a 4:0 TD:INT over his last two starts while adding 45 yards and a TD with his legs. It wouldn't be surprising at all to see the QB unlock an extra gear in the postseason as K.C. begins its quest for a third consecutive Super Bowl. Mahomes has a 15-3 record and 41:8 TD:INT in 18 previous playoff starts, including five touchdown passes in his only previous playoff game against the Texans five years ago. While Houston's defense has changed significantly since then, it's a unit that surrendered 31 touchdown passes during the regular season -- third-most in the NFL.
Honorable Mentions:
Jayden Daniels, WAS at DET ($38); Jared Goff, DET vs. WAS ($35)
RUNNING BACK
David Montgomery, DET vs. WAS ($27): Montgomery split carries with Jahmyr Gibbs prior to Montgomery's Week 15 knee injury, and while Gibbs has the higher ceiling given his excellent play down the stretch, it's far easier to fit the more affordable Montgomery into lineups. Both Detroit RBs are set up for success against a shaky Washington run defense that allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to RBs (1,935) and tied for the fifth-most rushing TDs (16) allowed to the position. Montgomery scored 12 rushing TDs in 14 games this season, giving him 25 rushing scores in 28 games over the last two regular seasons.
Dameon Pierce, HOU at KC ($10): Given Houston's lack of pass catching depth, the running game will likely be a big part of the game plan Saturday. Joe Mixon has topped 100 yards on the ground and scored in eight of 15 appearances this season after rumbling for 106 rushing yards and a TD in the wild-card round win over the Chargers, but the workhorse back is questionable due to an ankle injury that kept him from practicing Thursday. Pierce's likely volume should Mixon sit would make the affordable backup a can't-miss play. Even if Mixon suits up, Pierce could still offer strong bang for the buck if they split carries -- he showcased his upside with 176 rushing yards in Week 18 against the Titans when Mixon was resting. Kansas City had an elite run defense in the regular season, allowing the third-fewest yards to RBs, but whoever works as Houston's lead back should benefit from a substantial workload in a game that's likely to remain close, considering the AFC West champs won multiple scores this season only four times.
Honorable Mentions:
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET vs. WAS ($40); Kareem Hunt, KC vs. HOU ($19)
WIDE RECEIVER
Terry McLaurin, WAS at DET ($32): The Lions have been excellent against the run and in the red zone, but they have allowed opponents to move the ball well through the air, surrendering a league-high 3,147 receiving yards to WRs in the regular season. McLaurin has been Washington's top option in the passing game throughout the campaign, and the underdog Commanders will likely have to turn to the air frequently if they fall behind as anticipated. He's a strong candidate to score despite Detroit's proficiency at preventing TDs, as McLaurin (13) trailed only Ja'Marr Chase in receiving TDs in the regular season before tacking on another score in the wild-card round win over Tampa Bay, along with seven catches for 89 yards on 10 targets.
Nico Collins, HOU at KC ($30): Collins is the other key playmaker for Houston alongside Mixon, as those two combined for 241 of Houston's 429 yards of total offense against the Chargers in the wild-card round. The star WR's 122 receiving yards against LA bumped his season average up to 86.8 receiving yards per game, and Collins has scored eight times in 13 games. Kansas City has limited WR's yardage totals, but 19 receiving TDs allowed to the position tied for sixth-most in the NFL during the regular season.
DeAndre Hopkins, KC vs. HOU ($16): A Kansas City WR room that looked quite underwhelming in the first half of the season is suddenly bursting with options, as Hopkins is joined by speedsters Xavier Worthy ($26) and Hollywood Brown ($17). Worthy also makes for a strong play given the rookie's late-season surge, but Hopkins' affordability stands out. The 32-year-old WR knows he doesn't have many opportunities left to chase a ring, and he'll be highly motivated in his first playoff appearance since 2019, when Hopkins had 118 receiving yards for the Texans in a loss to Kansas City in the AFC divisional round. Now on the other sideline, Hopkins still has elite jump-ball ability, body control and hands, which will make him a key red-zone weapon against a Houston secondary that was burned for 21 TDs by WRs in the regular season -- one short of Atlanta's league-worst total.
Honorable Mentions:
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET vs. WAS ($36); Xavier Worthy, KC vs. HOU ($26)
TIGHT END
Travis Kelce, KC vs. HOU ($21): Kelce seemed to have declined significantly in 2023, when he snapped a streak of seven consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons, only to turn it up in the playoffs with 32 catches for 355 yards and three TDs in four games (88.8 yards per game). Like Mahomes, Kelce can afford to cruise through the regular season and turn it up in the playoffs, so his modest 823 yards and three TDs may not be a harbinger of declining postseason production. Mahomes' most trusted target has caught 18 TDs in their last 17 playoff games together, including three in one game against Houston. The Texans' eight TDs allowed to TEs in the regular season were tied for fifth-most in the NFL.
Honorable Mentions:
Zach Ertz, WAS at DET ($17); Dalton Schultz, HOU at KC ($12)
DEFENSE
Detroit Lions vs. WAS ($14): Detroit's bend-don't-break approach on defense was highly effective in the regular season thanks to elite stinginess when it mattered most -- opponents completed only seven of 52 passes into the end zone against Detroit in 2024, including six interceptions. Jayden Daniels hasn't looked like a rookie in 2024, but after Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn had Sam Darnold seeing ghosts all over again in the 31-9 Week 18 win over Minnesota that secured the top seed for Detroit, Glenn's defense will likely throw some wrinkles at Daniels that the second overall pick hasn't yet seen in his brief NFL career. Washington's receiving depth is suspect behind McLaurin, and the Commanders running game is unlikely to get going against a Detroit defense that allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards in the regular season.
Honorable Mentions:
Kansas City vs. HOU ($18); Houston Texans at KC ($15)
