This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks at FanDuel Sportsbook: NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 1
Welcome to a new season of football and therefore a new season to start making some wagers at the FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm switching gears this season and leaving the FanDuel DFS space to write about wagers you can find at the FanDuel Sportsbook. Each week I'll like at a variety of lines you can find on FanDuel and hopefully do well in picking some spreads, over/under, player props and special wagers. Let's dig in.
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NFL Week 1 Bets
Minnesota Vikings +1.5 (-110) vs. Green Bay Packers
This might be my favorite wager of the week and I probably would normally go with the money line except that it's a -102. I don't think people have realized what the potential loss of Davante Adams could mean for the Packers' offense given he scored 29 touchdowns along with almost 3,000 receiving yards the last two seasons. Kirk Cousins is extremely underrated in my opinion and the offense is stacked at wide receiver and running back. The Vikings are 2-2 against Green Bay the last two seasons and won last season in Minnesota.
Arizona Cardinals +5.5 (-105) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I love the addition of JuJu Smith-Schuster to the offense but I also have to wonder how the loss of Tyreek Hill will affect Patrick Mahomes. If you go back and look at the tape, Hill ran a lot of underneath routes and wasn't just running go pattern after go pattern. However, the threat of him deep helped open up the middle of the field for Travis Kelce to operate so the absence of Hill may have a big impact on the offense. I'm curious to see if Kyler Murray is allowed to call his own plays and I'd obviously feel better if Zach Ertz and Rondale Moore were playing. That being said, this seems like a lot of points for a home team in a game where the two defenses are pretty even on paper.
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers UNDER 41.5 (-106)
I have to think this is going to be a run-heavy game, especially on the Browns' side of the ball. I expect a conservative game plan from Cleveland with Jacoby Brissett under center and I think the Cleveland defense will be ready for a banged-up Christian McCaffrey. I'd obviously be happier to see this line move up a point and you can do that on the FanDuel Sportsbook by going UNDER 43. for -140 odds.
NFL Week 1 Player Props
CeeDee Lamb OVER 72.5 (-114) Receiving Yards
The Cowboys have very limited options to throw to and I'd expect Lamb to get double-digit targets easily. The Dallas running game is decent enough to keep the Tampa defense honest and Lamb should be able to get loose for at least a couple of catch of 15-plus yards.
Keenan Allen OVER 5.5 Receptions (-158)
I hate the juice here but it's the one wager you can make on Allen's receptions. This is supposed to be a shootout and Allen averaged 6.6 catches per game last season and went over this mark (six and seven) the two times they played the Raiders last season. With the Chargers expected to score around 28 points, expect the Justin Herbert/Keenan Allen connection to pick up right where it left off last season.
Travis Etienne UNDER 71.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards
The truth is we don't know how the workload is going to be divided up in the Jaguars backfield. The presence of James Robinson clouds the potential touches for Etienne and it's tough to know how much work each will get. There's also the possible scenario that if Etienne fumbles early, he may suddenly see a reduced role. The Commanders are at home and last season had the eighth best mark against the run for efficiency allowing only 4.1 yards per carry. I'll back the under here as a result.
Anytime Touchdown Props
Trey Lance +210
Would it surprise you to find out that the over/under for Trey Lance rushing yards this season was higher than Josh Allen? I'm not suggesting Lance IS Josh Allen but I am suggesting that the rushing attempts will be there all season long. This should include near the goal line and like Allen, Lance may score on a passing play inside the ten that breaks down and he has to take off. For comparison, Jalen Hurts is +110 to score against the Lions; I'd rather double the odds and take Lance.
Robert Tonyan +250
I actually went back and forth between taking Tonyan or taking the three healthy wide receivers collectively (Sammy Watkins +310, Romeo Doubs +340, Christian Watson +350). The latter might be more fun and have more upside, but Tonyan is the safer play. If we were talking about this last season, Davante Adams, Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling would all be in this conversation but they won't be on the field to take on the Vikings. Tonyan seems to be the lone survivor of the group and who Aaron Rodgers is most familiar with. Don't forget Tonyan had 11 receiving touchdowns from Rodgers in 2020.
Andy Isabella +490
Ok, here's the long shot of the week and hear me out. DeAndre Hopkins is suspended and Rondale Moore has been ruled out elevating Isabella onto the fantasy radar. He's still the third fiddle behind Marquise Brown (+165) and A.J. Green (+260) but should see plenty of action considering all the three-wide receiver sets the Cardinals use. It's tough to find odds this good for any third wide receiver so take advantage of this in what should be a shootout with the Chiefs.
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