Game Spotlight: Jungle Struggles

Giants vs. Philadelphia, Thursday

Open: 45 O/U, PHI -2.5
Live: 44 O/U, PHI -2.5

The Eli Manning against the Panthers didn't seem substantially different from the Eli that flopped against the Saints the week prior, he's just liable to start badly missing his throws for no apparent reason. The Panthers also seemed to grant bigger cushions than the Eagles are likely to, so perhaps that will compound the pass-blocking risks the Giants will face against a loaded Eagles pass rush. Manning is not crafty like Kirk Cousins is – if there's a leak the ship is going down.

If Eli has a bad game, it's not to say that it would doom any of Odell Beckham, Saquon Barkley, or Sterling Shepard to a bad fantasy day. That's particularly true with the former two. Shepard is playing well this year, averaging an impressive 8.4 yards per target, but his target volume (36) is less than Barkley's (39) and substantially less than Beckham's (59). Beckham has been seemingly tough to predict this year, but even in his two 'bad' games he combined for 11 receptions. Despite whatever surrounding drama of the moment, the floor and ceiling both are always very high with Beckham, and I'd think going against the Eagles is good for the odds of hitting the ceiling scenario. The strong Philadelphia run defense pushes usage toward the air, and opposing receivers have turned 126 targets into 84 receptions for 1,064 yards and seven touchdowns. The Eagles have respectively allowed the highest, third-highest, and eighth-highest numbers in those categories. With Evan Engram (knee) out again, Beckham and Shepard both likely project for better target usage than usual, and the coverage should be an only modest obstacle as long as Eli does his part. I'm knocking on wood right now.

The Eagles defense has allowed just 2.8 yards per carry to running backs this year, so it seems a bit greedy to ask Barkley to put up big numbers on the ground. The Eagles don't seem much friendlier to running backs as pass catchers, conceding only 29 catches for 189 yards on 34 targets, but Barkley is in his own category as far as pass catching goes, and precedent might not apply to him as reliably in that regard. He's as matchup-proof as any runner in the league, substantial as the difficulty might be in this matchup.

The backfield on the Philadelphia side is not so predictable. Corey Clement is back from the quadriceps injury that kept him out of the last two games, and he'll compete with Wendell Smallwood for relevance in light of Jay Ajayi's season-ending ACL tear. Darren Sproles (hamstring) is out once again, so Clement and Smallwood might have enough room to coexist. I like Josh Adams a lot as a prospect, but I doubt he's worth rostering outside of Showdown-style contests, and only in redraft leagues of 14 or more teams. Clement would be my favorite to lead the backfield in production from this point, as he's the incumbent backup to Ajayi and also profiles as the main goal-line guy at around 215 pounds. Smallwood, on the other hand, might have the advantage in more pass-heavy scenarios, as his quickness and speed is a contrast to Clement in the open field. I guess in a case like this, I'd speculate that Smallwood's usage might correlate to the success of Manning, while Clement's might correlate to the Philly defense. I think they'll both have a role – potentially profitable ones – even in the outcomes in between those two, but shootouts should favor Smallwood while Clement should have an advantage when Philadelphia has a lead.

Right tackle Lane Johnson (ankle) is questionable for the game, but it shouldn't be a problem given that the Giants are tied with the Raiders for the worst pass rush so far, totaling just six sacks in five games. As long as Carson Wentz has time to throw, he should be able to complete passes on this defense. If Wentz can put 311 yards and two touchdowns on the Vikings, then the Giants should be a manageable test. Alshon Jeffery figures to see a lot of Janoris Jenkins, which could contain but shouldn't smother his production. Last week's matchup with Xavier Rhodes is about as bad as it gets for a big target like Jeffery, but with Jenkins he can at least box him out for catches. Nelson Agholor has really fallen off a cliff, and last week his target volume dragged down to four. The fact that he had three games of double-digit targets in the prior four makes it seem like his usage will bounce back here, but it's hard to keep much faith given his average of 4.9 yards per target on the year. He caught seven of nine targets for 59 yards and a touchdown when he went to New York last year. As almost always, Zach Ertz carries the safest projection among Eagles pass catchers. He's been pummeled with targets all year, exceeding double digits in each game. With 20 catches for 222 yards and a touchdown in his last two games it feels like we're asking a lot for another dominant showing, but there's just no reason to bet against him right now. Dallas Goedert has just four targets since he broke out for seven receptions on seven targets against the Colts in Week 3, which is disappointing particularly given Agholor's ineffectiveness.

Both of these teams are on a short week after taxing, close games Sunday, with the Eagles losing a high-stakes home game against the Vikings while the Giants lost to the Panthers. Perhaps that invites some wacky scenarios here, but otherwise it looks like the Eagles should get back in the win column, and I'd have to project by at least three points.

Sunday

Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay, 1:00

Open: 57 O/U, ATL -4
Live: 57.5 O/U, ATL -3.5

This one will go off. It has to. Matt Ryan disappointed last week, but he's reliably better at home, and the Falcons defense is so battered it would be shocking if Jameis Winston didn't have a big game too. Both pass defenses are fully dysfunctional, allowing a combined 25 touchdowns in nine games. The teams have just 16 sacks between them in those games.

Julio Jones will almost certainly have a big game here. I feel like I've been saying that a while now. But this time it's definitely real. The Buccaneers are allowing 8.8 yards per target to receivers, and the pace resulting from the likely shootout should bring out the higher-range outcomes for Jones' projection. Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu are both golden in the matchup, as well, if only for how sterling Ryan's outlook is. A big game from Sanu would mark four in a row for him, but he is still running ahead of Ridley in the rotation. The Falcons would look into changing that if they know what's best for them. Austin Hooper was extremely busy against Pittsburgh, catching nine passes for 77 yards on 12 targets, but his workload existed as a result of Jones and Ridley getting marginalized. That second part isn't happening here, so for Hooper to make it two big games in a row we'll probably need to see Ryan go over 400 yards. Certainly could happen.

Tevin Coleman failed to distinguish himself while Devonta Freeman sat with a knee injury, but Coleman might get another shot to make his case with Freeman suffering a foot injury that has his status in serious question. A remaining problem for Coleman either way is rookie fourth-round pick Ito Smith, who has a touchdown in consecutive games. I doubt Smith is pushing aside Coleman in the rotation, but the rookie is legitimately good and isn't going anywhere. I like both players as tournament picks if Freeman is out. The Buccaneers run defense is competent, but the high-scoring environment overrules that consideration, and they've otherwise done a terrible job of stopping running backs in the receiving game, conceding 328 yards on 35 targets.

The Buccaneers seemed to tire of Peyton Barber before the bye, but the blowout context of that Bears game could explain why Ronald Jones had 10 carries to Barber's seven. Jones' 29 yards didn't move the needle, so while he has his GPP appeal and should probably be owned in 12-team leagues, Jones remains a risky selection, and Barber might not be down for the count just yet. Barber has some GPP upside of his own against a Falcons defense trending downward and allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs in the meantime.

Even if Winston has a bad game in this setting, the pace set by Ryan would likely pull him along for a big fantasy box score anyway. But expectations should specifically be very high for Winston – Todd Monken is still running this offense, and the Buccaneers are still loaded with pass-catching threats. The Falcons have already surrendered 10 touchdowns to receivers – two per game – and the receivers might see greater target shares than usual with O.J. Howard (MCL) looking highly questionable. Then again, Cameron Brate could just pick up all of the work that would normally go to Howard. With touchdowns in consecutive games, Brate will understandably be one of the top DFS targets at tight end this week. Mike Evans has a fine history against the Falcons, totaling 46 receptions for 692 yards and six touchdowns in eight games. Whatever was favorable about past conditions for Evans has to be vastly improved in this particular game. DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin each head into the game with 22 targets, but Jackson has 230 more yards to show for it. That's not a failure on Godwin's part – he's averaging 8.8 yards per target. Jackson is just averaging an absurd and ultimately unsustainable 19.3 yards per target. It might not be unsustainable for this particular game, though. The Buccaneers need to stop wasting targets on Adam Humphries, but even he makes sense in GPPs with 12 targets in his last two games.

Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh, 1:00

Open: 54.5 O/U, CIN -3
Live: 52.5 OU, CIN -2.5

That's a pretty decisive drop in the over/under. It looks like two possibilities confront each other at this point: either the Bengals are a high-scoring team now, or the past month has featured several aberrational outcomes and a correction is imminent. Not only are the Bengals scoring much more than last year with 30.6 points per game, but their defense has been uncharacteristically bad, too, conceding 26 points per game. The figures were 18.1 and 21.8 last year, respectively.

Pittsburgh's defense played well against Atlanta last week, so they might prove better than their first-month difficulties implied. They have an intimidating pass rush either way – their 19 sacks lead the league. So Andy Dalton will have to deal with that, and hope that A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd can get loose before the pass rush arrives. The Steelers contained outside wideouts Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley last week, leaving themselves open in the middle of the field for Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper. It would benefit Boyd to Green's detriment if that dynamic played out two weeks in a row. Green's projection is a tricky one – you can never rule out a talent like him regardless of his situation, but he reliably is more productive on the road than at home. Then again, that might get overruled by the fact that he has historically seen incredible target volume against the Steelers. He hasn't been especially efficient, averaging 7.1 yards per target, but Green's 13 games against Pittsburgh resulted in 153 targets, 81 of which were caught for 1,093 yards and eight touchdowns. Tight end C.J. Uzomah is somewhat interesting with Tyler Kroft suffering a foot injury. Uzomah isn't known as a playmaker, but he's always been a size/speed guy with developmental upside, and it seems like he may have turned a corner this year.

The Bengals run defense has been total garbage, allowing 501 yards on 106 carries to running backs. That's great news for James Conner, who's looking to make it two strong games in a row following a three-week lull. He's been very busy as a pass catcher all the while, and that should remain the case against a Bengals defense that funneled 43 targets to running backs in five games. Even with Vontaze Burfict back from suspension last week, Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake were able to post big numbers from scrimmage.

Ben Roethlisberger is on pace for 688 pass attempts, which would be a career high by 80, so we might want to expect his passing volume to slow down. Then again, maybe the pass attempt volume is linked to the absence of Le'Veon Bell, which will apply again in this case. But he tends to regress on the road, and his numbers against the Bengals generally have not been clean throughout his career. His career touchdown-to-interception ratio is 340:80, but against the Bengals it's 38:28. There are good-case scenarios within the range of outcomes these numbers imply, but it generally looks like this setting should be considered a downgrade to Roethlisberger relative to some others he's seen this year. Antonio Brown's production predictably lags as Roethlisberger's does, and in 15 games against Cincinnati the wideout was held to 81 receptions for 1,138 yards and six touchdowns on 133 targets. Bell's absence should nudge some extra usage his way, though. Juju Smith-Schuster should get going after two slow weeks, but his projection is capped by the same Roethlisberger trends.

Denver vs. Rams, 4:05

Open: 52.5 O/U, LAR -6.5
Live: 52.5 O/U, LAR -7

The Rams will often dictate one of the highest over/unders on any given slate, but this is a weird setting they head into. It might not be dangerous for them exactly, but the outcome should be a bit weird whatever it is. Denver's homefield advantage falls off over the course of the year, as the temperature in Denver drops and as other teams improve their conditioning before dealing with the thin Denver air. Midway through October, that advantage is almost certainly in its descent phase.

That would be good news for the Rams if true, because their whole model of offense is threatened by the concussions suffered by Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp last week. Sean McVay expressed optimism for them playing, but that's a quick turnaround and you have to wonder if the elevation is a further complication. If those two are out, the Broncos would be free to devote heavy resources toward slowing Robert Woods in a way that you'd normally get burned for by Kupp and Cooks. I think Josh Reynolds is a fine outside receiver prospect and I think he's up for the task generally, but the Rams are otherwise thin at receiver with Pharoh Cooper already out for the year. KhaDarel Hodge does not strike me as a serious NFL prospect otherwise. Now would be a good time for McVay to unleash Gerald Everett, who has just eight targets in five games.

Of course, if Cooks and Kupp should miss the game a lot of the burden would shift to Todd Gurley. But his workload is probably maxed out as it is, because 120 touches from scrimmage in five games is a workload that's already asking for trouble. Whatever his usage comes out to, it bodes well for Gurley that the Broncos have allowed 671 yards and five touchdowns to running backs on 121 carries (5.6 YPC).

Case Keenum bounced back for fantasy owners last week with 377 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets, but he still wasn't good. I'm growing increasingly doubtful that he'll finish the year as starter. Even after padding on last week's stats, Keenum has five touchdowns to seven interceptions in five games. The Rams pass rush has disappointed and the loss of Aqib Talib is substantial, but Keenum has folded rather easily so far this year.

If Keenum can maintain his composure then it might have something to do with the reemergence of Demaryius Thomas, who torched the Jets for 105 yards and a touchdown on five catches. But he saw only six targets, the same number as Courtland Sutton, who has 12 targets in the last two weeks. It just doesn't seem like Keenum and Thomas are on the same page, or at least Keenum can't get the ball to Thomas' part of the field. Keenum primarily remains dependent on Emmanuel Sanders, who saw 14 targets against the Jets and should probably carry the highest projection for Broncos wideouts until further notice.

If you think the Broncos are competitive in this game, then it could set up a nice workload for Royce Freeman. But the money on this game to this point doesn't expect that exactly, and the Broncos have been quick to abandon Royce for Phillip Lindsay all year. Whoever gets the usage sets up fairly well, in any case, because the Rams have been quite beatable on the ground going back to last year. In 2018 they've conceded 4.9 yards per carry, but quite notably for Lindsay, only 141 yards on 36 targets.