I use several RotoWire tools to analyze matchups, starting with Box Score Breakdown, which gives me a clear view of snaps, routes and other usage stats from the previous week. NFL defense vs. position stats identify exploitable matchups, while NFL advanced stats provide me with emerging trends. And I monitor the NFL injury report and NFL player news to see how roles and NFL depth charts may shift for the current week.
As of Thursday morning, there are a few teams expected to rest starters, and a handful of others that might decide to do so or else remove guys early.
Philadelphia and Green Bay are expected to rest a slew of key guys. The Chargers are resting Justin Herbert, at the very least, and likely others. Buffalo may join them. The Patriots, Rams and Texans all may have varying incentives to remove guys early. If you're still doing fantasy or gambling stuff, it's more important than ever to keep up with NFL breaking news.
Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.
Start/Upgrade 👍
Quarterbacks 👍
Jaxson Dart (vs. DAL) — 24% started
Start Over — Matthew Stafford (vs. ARZ), Drake Maye (vs. MIA), Brock Purdy (vs. SEA)
I've written about the drastic decrease in Dart's designed runs since Brian Daboll was fired, but it didn't matter last week in a win over Las Vegas, with the rookie QB hitting paydirt on one of his two designed carries and then adding four scrambles for 31 yards and another score. Dart may not even need the goal-line rushes to put up a big stat line this Sunday, facing a barely there Cowboys defense in a game with the largest over/under (51.5) of Week 18. With so many other top QBs either resting or in danger of being pulled early, Dart and Dak Prescott both have overall-QB1 arguments for fantasy this week.
- Other Good Matchups: Dak Prescott (at NYG), Trevor Lawrence (vs. TEN), Sam Darnold (at SF), Shedeur Sanders (at CIN), Tanner McKee (vs. WAS)
Running Backs 👍
Javonte Williams (at NYG) — 80% started
Start Over — Kenneth Walker (at SF), Jaylen Warren (vs. BAL), Tony Pollard (at JAX)
This is one to watch still as the week progresses, but Wednesday's injury report brought a dual surprise for the Dallas backfield, with Malik Davis (eye/calf) a non-participant while Williams wasn't even listed. Williams missed large chunks of the past two games with a shoulder injury, and there's been chatter about limiting his workload with free agency on the horizon. It now appears Williams will play, which is enough to put him in Week 18 lineups even if there's considerable risk that he rotates heavily or leaves early. A matchup with the Giants means Williams might only need a dozen touches for a strong fantasy line.
Ray Davis (vs. NYJ) — 1% started
Start Over — Michael Carter (at LAR), Tyjae Spears (at JAX), Tyler Allgeier (vs. NO)
With James Cook potentially resting or pulled early, Davis should get a bunch of carries against one of the worst teams in the league. Buffalo's second-string linemen are better than New York's starters in many cases, and we've seen the Bills put up a fight before when using backups versus starters for Week 18.
- Other Good Matchups: RJ Harvey (vs. LAC), Kenneth Walker (at SF), Aaron Jones (vs. GB), Tyrone Tracy & Devin Singletary (vs. DAL), Tank Bigsby & Will Shipley (vs. WAS), Dylan Sampson (at CIN)
Wide Receivers 👍
Michael Wilson (at LAR) — 68% started
Start Over — Justin Jefferson (vs. GB), Tee Higgins (vs. CLE), Stefon Diggs (vs. MIA)
Wilson needs 93 yards to reach 1,000 for the season, and things are lining up for him to make a real run at it. Marvin Harrison (heel) is already ruled out, leaving Wilson as the far-and-away No. 1 receiver against a struggling group of cornerbacks. There's even a chance of the Rams putting in backups at some point.
- Other Good Matchups: Zay Flowers (at PIT), Courtland Sutton (vs. LAC), CeeDee Lamb & George Pickens (at NYG), Wan'Dale Robinson & Darius Slayton (vs. DAL), Darius Cooper & Jahan Dotson (vs. WAS), Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas & Parker Washington (vs. TEN), DJ Moore & Luther Burden (vs. DET), Cooper Kupp (at SF)
Tight Ends 👍
Colston Loveland (vs. DET) — 23% started
Start Over — Travis Kelce (at LV), Brenton Strange (vs. TEN), Mark Andrews (at PIT), Juwan Johnson (at ATL)
Loveland topped 80 percent for both snap and route share in Sunday night's loss at San Francisco, drawing a career-high 10 targets en route to a 6-94-1 receiving line. He'll now face another team that's been all-offense, no-defense in the second half of the season, with Detroit struggling to overcome an onslaught of injuries in the defensive backfield.
- Other Good Matchups: Brenton Strange (vs. TEN), Theo Johnson (vs. DAL), AJ Barner (at SF), Pat Freiermuth (vs. BAL)
Sit/Downgrade 👎
Quarterbacks 👎
Aaron Rodgers (vs. BAL) — 9% started
Start Instead — Kirk Cousins (vs. NO), Shedeur Sanders (at CIN), Tanner McKee (vs. WAS)
Baltimore's defense has been inconsistent, at best, but there's still a lot of talent on the unit, which is more than can be said for Pittsburgh's offense after losing DK Metcalf (suspension) and Darnell Washington (broken arm). The speed options to challenge Baltimore's struggling cornerbacks are Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Calvin Austin, with the latter having missed Week 17 due to a hamstring injury. Austin is at least practicing this week, but it's still a pathetic WR room without Metcalf.
- Other Tough Matchups: Riley Leonard (at HOU), Aaron Rodgers (vs. BAL), Clayton Tune (at MIN)
Running Backs 👎
Omarion Hampton (at DEN) — 68% started
Start Instead — Tank Bigsby (vs. WAS), Dylan Sampson (at CIN), Devin Singletary (vs. DAL)
If Hampton plays, he'll do so as a major underdog, with no Justin Herbert and high odds of being removed early. If Hampton is held out, it means his replacement (Jaret Patterson or Kimani Vidal) will be playing alongside fellow backups against one of the better defenses in the league. There's too much blowout risk here, even if things line up nicely for Patterson to handle a large workload. (Vidal missed Week 17 with a neck injury, but he practiced this Wednesday.)
- Other Tough Matchups: Jonathan Taylor (at HOU), Brian Robinson (vs. SEA)
Wide Receivers 👎
Jauan Jennings (vs. SEA) — 61% started
Start Instead — Brian Thomas (vs. TEN), Jakobi Meyers (vs. TEN), DJ Moore (vs. DET)
Jennings is still startable where needed, but he's become awfully TD-dependent, with just 15 targets in three games since a Week 14 bye. Ricky Pearsall has the same number of targets despite missing one of those games, and now it looks like Pearsall and TE George Kittle (ankle) both will be available for the first time since Week 15.
- Other Tough Matchups: Ladd McConkey & Quentin Johnston (at DEN), Emeka Egbuka (vs. CAR), Michael Pittman & Alec Pierce (at HOU)
Tight Ends 👎
Tyler Warren (at HOU) — 69% started
Start Instead — AJ Barner (at SF), Theo Johnson (vs. DAL), Colby Parkinson (vs. ARZ)
Warren hasn't scored more than 10.3 PPR points since a Week 11 bye, with his production showing a strong downward trend even before Daniel Jones (Achilles) went down for the season. The rookie now finds himself catching passes from Riley Leonard, just in time for a matchup with the best defense in the AFC.
- Other Tough Matchups: Oronde Gadsden (at DEN), Evan Engram (vs. LAC)
Streaming Picks
For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)
QB Sam Darnold (at SF)
RB Audric Estime (at ATL)
RB Dylan Sampson (at CIN)
WR Parker Washington (vs. TEN)
WR Cooper Kupp (at SF)
WR Darius Slayton (vs. DAL)
TE Colston Loveland (vs. DET)
TE Theo Johnson (vs. DAL)
K Wil Lutz (vs. LAC)
D/ST Jaguars (vs. TEN)
For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 35 Percent Rostered)
QB Tyler Shough (at ATL)
RB Tank Bigsby (vs. WAS)
RB Chris Rodriguez (at PHI)
WR Luther Burden (vs. DET) - quad injury
WR Adonai Mitchell (at BUF)
WR Chimere Dike (at JAX)
TE AJ Barner (at SF)
TE Colby Parkinson (vs. ARZ)
K Will Reichard (vs. GB)
D/ST Raiders (vs. KC)
For Deep Leagues (Under 15 Percent Rostered)
QB Shedeur Sanders (at CIN)
QB Cam Ward (at JAX)
RB Ray Davis (vs. NYJ)
RB Emari Demercado (at LAR)
RB Will Shipley (vs. WAS)
RB Malik Davis (at NYG) - eye/calf injuries
RB Raheim Sanders (at CIN)
WR Jalen Coker (at TB)
WR Isaac TeSlaa (at CHI)
WR John Metchie (at BUF)
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs. BAL)
TE Pat Freiermuth (vs. BAL)
TE Michael Mayer (vs. KC)
K Zane Gonzalez (vs. NO)
D/ST Bengals (vs. CLE)
