With training camp right around the corner, it's time to look at how NFL best ball ADPs have changed this summer. We last did this exercise a few weeks after the 2025 NFL Draft, back in mid-May, which obviously meant some massive changes relative to the pre-draft best ball ADPs.
One might think that not much of significance has happened since then to impact valuations, but there's actually been a lot of movement in the market, including some rookies like RJ Harvey and Travis Hunter who surged right after the draft but have subsequently fallen a good bit. In Harvey's case, it's related to concrete news, with the J.K. Dobbins signing being one of five major, fantasy-relevant transactions since mid-May.
The first thing you'll see below is a large chart based on ADP data from Underdog and Drafters, with the first two columns showing the averages from mid-July and mid-May, followed by a third column showing the difference between those numbers (a negative value means the player fell, while a positive value indicates a rise). The fourth and final column shows the percentage change relative to his original ADP in May. For example, if Player X's May ADP was 127 and he then drops or rises 12.7 spots, the percentage change is 10% (or -10%).
After the big chart with all the data, you'll find my analysis and explanations for the biggest ADP movers, dividing the players/situations into six different categories:
1. Rookies
2. Players with injury/legal updates (Rice, Addison,
With training camp right around the corner, it's time to look at how NFL best ball ADPs have changed this summer. We last did this exercise a few weeks after the 2025 NFL Draft, back in mid-May, which obviously meant some massive changes relative to the pre-draft best ball ADPs.
One might think that not much of significance has happened since then to impact valuations, but there's actually been a lot of movement in the market, including some rookies like RJ Harvey and Travis Hunter who surged right after the draft but have subsequently fallen a good bit. In Harvey's case, it's related to concrete news, with the J.K. Dobbins signing being one of five major, fantasy-relevant transactions since mid-May.
The first thing you'll see below is a large chart based on ADP data from Underdog and Drafters, with the first two columns showing the averages from mid-July and mid-May, followed by a third column showing the difference between those numbers (a negative value means the player fell, while a positive value indicates a rise). The fourth and final column shows the percentage change relative to his original ADP in May. For example, if Player X's May ADP was 127 and he then drops or rises 12.7 spots, the percentage change is 10% (or -10%).
After the big chart with all the data, you'll find my analysis and explanations for the biggest ADP movers, dividing the players/situations into six different categories:
1. Rookies
2. Players with injury/legal updates (Rice, Addison, McCaffrey, etc.)
3. Miami (Jonnu trade, Waller signing)
4. Pittsburgh (Jonnu trade, Rodgers signing)
5. Denver's backfield (Dobbins signing)
6. Houston's backfield (Chubb signing)
7. Miscellaneous
The ADP Chart (Comparing Changes from May to July)
| Pos | Player | July ADP | May ADP | Δ ADP | Δ% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WR | Ja'Marr Chase | 1.10 | 1.15 | 0.05 | 4.3% |
| 2 | WR | Justin Jefferson | 3.10 | 3.35 | 0.25 | 7.5% |
| 3 | RB | Bijan Robinson | 3.35 | 4.05 | 0.70 | 17.3% |
| 4 | RB | Saquon Barkley | 3.50 | 2.40 | -1.10 | -45.8% |
| 5 | WR | CeeDee Lamb | 5.15 | 5.25 | 0.10 | 1.9% |
| 6 | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 5.45 | 5.65 | 0.20 | 3.5% |
| 7 | WR | Puka Nacua | 7.90 | 8.90 | 1.00 | 11.2% |
| 8 | RB | Christian McCaffrey | 7.90 | 11.55 | 3.65 | 31.6% |
| 9 | WR | Malik Nabers | 9.55 | 8.95 | -0.60 | -6.7% |
| 10 | WR | Nico Collins | 11.00 | 12.10 | 1.10 | 9.1% |
| 11 | WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 11.35 | 9.60 | -1.75 | -18.2% |
| 12 | RB | Ashton Jeanty | 11.75 | 8.40 | -3.35 | -39.9% |
| 13 | WR | Brian Thomas | 13.75 | 13.25 | -0.50 | -3.8% |
| 14 | RB | Derrick Henry | 13.35 | 12.70 | -0.65 | -5.1% |
| 15 | RB | De'Von Achane | 14.30 | 17.80 | 3.50 | 19.7% |
| 16 | WR | Drake London | 16.10 | 17.30 | 1.20 | 6.9% |
| 17 | WR | A.J. Brown | 18.15 | 18.80 | 0.65 | 3.5% |
| 18 | WR | Ladd McConkey | 18.50 | 17.75 | -0.75 | -4.2% |
| 19 | TE | Brock Bowers | 18.55 | 15.95 | -2.60 | -16.3% |
| 20 | RB | Jonathan Taylor | 20.50 | 19.60 | -0.90 | -4.6% |
| 21 | WR | Rashee Rice | 21.45 | 33.10 | 11.65 | 35.2% |
| 22 | RB | Bucky Irving | 22.60 | 22.50 | -0.10 | -0.4% |
| 23 | WR | Tyreek Hill | 24.00 | 29.70 | 5.70 | 19.2% |
| 24 | WR | Tee Higgins | 25.60 | 24.40 | -1.20 | -4.9% |
| 25 | RB | Josh Jacobs | 24.65 | 24.30 | -0.35 | -1.4% |
| 26 | TE | Trey McBride | 25.90 | 23.80 | -2.10 | -8.8% |
| 27 | RB | Chase Brown | 27.40 | 31.10 | 3.70 | 11.9% |
| 28 | WR | Marvin Harrison | 29.65 | 29.20 | -0.45 | -1.5% |
| 29 | WR | Garrett Wilson | 28.90 | 27.65 | -1.25 | -4.5% |
| 30 | WR | Davante Adams | 31.10 | 33.60 | 2.50 | 7.4% |
| 31 | QB | Josh Allen | 30.45 | 28.50 | -1.95 | -6.8% |
| 32 | WR | Terry McLaurin | 33.05 | 27.50 | -5.55 | -20.2% |
| 33 | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 33.90 | 30.70 | -3.20 | -10.4% |
| 34 | QB | Lamar Jackson | 31.75 | 31.45 | -0.30 | -1.0% |
| 35 | RB | Breece Hall | 35.25 | 38.00 | 2.75 | 7.2% |
| 36 | RB | Kyren Williams | 33.90 | 30.70 | -3.20 | -10.4% |
| 37 | WR | Mike Evans | 37.20 | 36.20 | -1.00 | -2.8% |
| 38 | QB | Jayden Daniels | 38.45 | 38.80 | 0.35 | 0.9% |
| 39 | TE | George Kittle | 39.40 | 49.30 | 9.90 | 20.1% |
| 40 | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 46.10 | 44.70 | -1.40 | -3.1% |
| 41 | WR | DJ Moore | 41.95 | 42.20 | 0.25 | 0.6% |
| 42 | RB | Omarion Hampton | 42.70 | 44.05 | 1.35 | 3.1% |
| 43 | RB | James Cook | 41.50 | 38.25 | -3.25 | -8.5% |
| 44 | WR | DK Metcalf | 43.60 | 51.20 | 7.60 | 14.8% |
| 45 | QB | Jalen Hurts | 44.50 | 49.05 | 4.55 | 9.3% |
| 46 | WR | Xavier Worthy | 47.85 | 41.75 | -6.10 | -14.6% |
| 47 | WR | Jameson Williams | 46.10 | 50.90 | 4.80 | 9.4% |
| 48 | WR | DeVonta Smith | 49.95 | 46.80 | -3.15 | -6.7% |
| 49 | WR | Courtland Sutton | 47.95 | 49.00 | 1.05 | 2.1% |
| 50 | WR | George Pickens | 51.45 | 56.90 | 5.45 | 9.6% |
| 51 | RB | Chuba Hubbard | 51.80 | 55.00 | 3.20 | 5.8% |
| 52 | WR | Jaylen Waddle | 54.75 | 62.00 | 7.25 | 11.7% |
| 53 | RB | Kenneth Walker | 53.25 | 57.80 | 4.55 | 7.9% |
| 54 | WR | Travis Hunter | 57.85 | 42.70 | -15.15 | -35.5% |
| 55 | WR | Zay Flowers | 54.80 | 52.40 | -2.40 | -4.6% |
| 56 | WR | Calvin Ridley | 56.60 | 59.35 | 2.75 | 4.6% |
| 57 | RB | Alvin Kamara | 51.95 | 56.60 | 4.65 | 8.2% |
| 58 | RB | Joe Mixon | 57.80 | 46.00 | -11.80 | -25.7% |
| 59 | WR | Rome Odunze | 63.55 | 68.30 | 4.75 | 7.0% |
| 60 | QB | Joe Burrow | 53.35 | 48.20 | -5.15 | -10.7% |
| 61 | WR | Jauan Jennings | 65.50 | 68.65 | 3.15 | 4.6% |
| 62 | RB | James Conner | 60.50 | 64.75 | 4.25 | 6.6% |
| 63 | RB | RJ Harvey | 63.90 | 53.20 | -10.70 | -20.1% |
| 64 | WR | Chris Olave | 68.15 | 70.30 | 2.15 | 3.1% |
| 65 | RB | TreVeyon Henderson | 63.40 | 63.00 | -0.40 | -0.6% |
| 66 | WR | Jordan Addison | 70.45 | 65.05 | -5.40 | -8.3% |
| 67 | WR | Chris Godwin | 67.30 | 65.40 | -1.90 | -2.9% |
| 68 | WR | Jerry Jeudy | 69.30 | 68.45 | -0.85 | -1.2% |
| 69 | WR | Deebo Samuel | 67.60 | 64.85 | -2.75 | -4.2% |
| 70 | RB | David Montgomery | 70.50 | 67.95 | -2.55 | -3.8% |
| 71 | WR | Jakobi Meyers | 71.70 | 75.35 | 3.65 | 4.8% |
| 72 | RB | Kaleb Johnson | 75.05 | 75.40 | 0.35 | 0.5% |
| 73 | RB | D'Andre Swift | 70.40 | 82.75 | 12.35 | 14.9% |
| 74 | WR | Ricky Pearsall | 78.20 | 79.85 | 1.65 | 2.1% |
| 75 | TE | Sam LaPorta | 69.20 | 64.25 | -4.95 | -7.7% |
| 76 | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 77.15 | 90.30 | 13.15 | 14.6% |
| 77 | RB | Quinshon Judkins | 79.50 | 70.80 | -8.70 | -12.3% |
| 78 | WR | Matthew Golden | 83.75 | 81.80 | -1.95 | -2.4% |
| 79 | WR | Jayden Reed | 84.15 | 85.50 | 1.35 | 1.6% |
| 80 | WR | Stefon Diggs | 80.15 | 79.90 | -0.25 | -0.3% |
| 81 | WR | Khalil Shakir | 78.60 | 79.15 | 0.55 | 0.7% |
| 82 | RB | Tony Pollard | 84.20 | 79.40 | -4.80 | -6.0% |
| 83 | QB | Patrick Mahomes | 77.05 | 75.40 | -1.65 | -2.2% |
| 84 | WR | Josh Downs | 85.30 | 97.95 | 12.65 | 12.9% |
| 85 | RB | Aaron Jones | 80.55 | 79.20 | -1.35 | -1.7% |
| 86 | WR | Darnell Mooney | 90.60 | 98.90 | 8.30 | 8.4% |
| 87 | RB | Brian Robinson | 86.15 | 86.80 | 0.65 | 0.7% |
| 88 | WR | Emeka Egbuka | 91.85 | 97.50 | 5.65 | 5.8% |
| 89 | TE | T.J. Hockenson | 88.10 | 84.55 | -3.55 | -4.2% |
| 90 | WR | Brandon Aiyuk | 97.40 | 87.05 | -10.35 | -11.9% |
| 91 | WR | Michael Pittman | 99.10 | 104.00 | 4.90 | 4.7% |
| 92 | RB | Jordan Mason | 95.45 | 108.55 | 13.10 | 12.1% |
| 93 | QB | Baker Mayfield | 88.30 | 84.20 | -4.10 | -4.9% |
| 94 | WR | Cooper Kupp | 89.80 | 83.80 | -6.00 | -7.2% |
| 95 | QB | Kyler Murray | 94.15 | 94.70 | 0.55 | 0.6% |
| 96 | WR | Jayden Higgins | 102.40 | 101.30 | -1.10 | -1.1% |
| 97 | RB | Jaylen Warren | 98.30 | 104.00 | 5.70 | 5.5% |
| 98 | RB | Travis Etienne | 98.90 | 121.20 | 22.30 | 18.4% |
| 99 | QB | Bo Nix | 94.75 | 94.30 | -0.45 | -0.5% |
| 100 | TE | Travis Kelce | 89.90 | 88.05 | -1.85 | -2.1% |
| 101 | QB | Justin Fields | 98.65 | 103.40 | 4.75 | 4.6% |
| 102 | WR | Keon Coleman | 106.35 | 119.15 | 12.80 | 10.7% |
| 103 | QB | Brock Purdy | 103.70 | 107.05 | 3.35 | 3.1% |
| 104 | RB | Tyrone Tracy | 103.25 | 100.95 | -2.30 | -2.3% |
| 105 | TE | Mark Andrews | 104.65 | 104.85 | 0.20 | 0.2% |
| 106 | WR | Rashid Shaheed | 115.15 | 124.70 | 9.55 | 7.7% |
| 107 | WR | Tre Harris | 114.90 | 108.25 | -6.65 | -6.1% |
| 108 | TE | Evan Engram | 100.85 | 109.55 | 8.70 | 7.9% |
| 109 | QB | Caleb Williams | 108.00 | 99.50 | -8.50 | -8.5% |
| 110 | RB | Cam Skattebo | 112.20 | 99.00 | -13.20 | -13.3% |
| 111 | QB | Dak Prescott | 107.40 | 111.65 | 4.25 | 3.8% |
| 112 | WR | Rashod Bateman | 112.70 | 118.85 | 6.15 | 5.2% |
| 113 | RB | J.K. Dobbins | 112.60 | 190.50 | 77.90 | 40.9% |
| 114 | RB | Zach Charbonnet | 116.30 | 114.00 | -2.30 | -2.0% |
| 115 | RB | Najee Harris | 116.15 | 107.00 | -9.15 | -8.6% |
| 116 | QB | Drake Maye | 117.05 | 124.25 | 7.20 | 5.8% |
| 117 | WR | Luther Burden | 128.75 | 105.65 | -23.10 | -21.9% |
| 118 | QB | Jared Goff | 109.90 | 103.10 | -6.80 | -6.6% |
| 119 | TE | Tyler Warren | 114.70 | 111.40 | -3.30 | -3.0% |
| 120 | TE | David Njoku | 116.70 | 125.20 | 8.50 | 6.8% |
| 121 | RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | 124.20 | 127.85 | 3.65 | 2.9% |
| 122 | QB | J.J. McCarthy | 118.70 | 131.90 | 13.20 | 10.0% |
| 123 | WR | Christian Kirk | 127.15 | 132.85 | 5.70 | 4.3% |
| 124 | QB | Justin Herbert | 121.35 | 118.00 | -3.35 | -2.8% |
| 125 | TE | Tucker Kraft | 125.25 | 131.60 | 6.35 | 4.8% |
| 126 | RB | Tyjae Spears | 123.80 | 139.40 | 15.60 | 11.2% |
| 127 | QB | Jordan Love | 125.75 | 125.10 | -0.65 | -0.5% |
| 128 | WR | Marvin Mims | 126.70 | 123.15 | -3.55 | -2.9% |
| 129 | RB | Javonte Williams | 124.95 | 119.35 | -5.60 | -4.7% |
| 130 | TE | Colston Loveland | 130.50 | 114.45 | -16.05 | -14.0% |
| 131 | RB | Bhayshul Tuten | 137.80 | 122.50 | -15.30 | -12.5% |
| 132 | WR | Kyle Williams | 139.90 | 133.45 | -6.45 | -4.8% |
| 133 | QB | Trevor Lawrence | 132.40 | 133.60 | 1.20 | 0.9% |
| 134 | QB | C.J. Stroud | 130.20 | 124.70 | -5.50 | -4.4% |
| 135 | RB | Ray Davis | 139.25 | 152.15 | 12.90 | 8.5% |
| 136 | WR | Hollywood Brown | 142.35 | 139.15 | -3.20 | -2.3% |
| 137 | TE | Dalton Kincaid | 133.40 | 135.40 | 2.00 | 1.5% |
| 138 | TE | Dallas Goedert | 138.40 | 138.80 | 0.40 | 0.3% |
| 139 | RB | Trey Benson | 144.40 | 148.20 | 3.80 | 2.6% |
| 140 | RB | Rachaad White | 137.70 | 140.70 | 3.00 | 2.1% |
| 141 | TE | Isaiah Likely | 139.05 | 138.80 | -0.25 | -0.2% |
| 142 | QB | Michael Penix | 138.95 | 143.35 | 4.40 | 3.1% |
| 143 | RB | Isaac Guerendo | 144.25 | 145.40 | 1.15 | 0.8% |
| 144 | TE | Jake Ferguson | 145.20 | 142.75 | -2.45 | -1.7% |
| 145 | WR | Cedric Tillman | 150.30 | 166.15 | 15.85 | 9.5% |
| 146 | WR | Quentin Johnston | 147.75 | 152.60 | 4.85 | 3.2% |
| 147 | RB | Jaydon Blue | 143.95 | 128.95 | -15.00 | -11.6% |
| 148 | WR | Xavier Legette | 156.20 | 163.50 | 7.30 | 4.5% |
| 149 | QB | Tua Tagovailoa | 144.20 | 148.40 | 4.20 | 2.8% |
| 150 | RB | Tyler Allgeier | 157.05 | 158.00 | 0.95 | 0.6% |
| 151 | RB | Austin Ekeler | 152.50 | 155.70 | 3.20 | 2.1% |
| 152 | QB | Bryce Young | 150.15 | 157.20 | 7.05 | 4.5% |
| 153 | QB | Matthew Stafford | 147.55 | 153.25 | 5.70 | 3.7% |
| 154 | WR | Romeo Doubs | 160.10 | 163.60 | 3.50 | 2.1% |
| 155 | WR | Jack Bech | 158.15 | 128.60 | -29.55 | -23.0% |
| 156 | TE | Jonnu Smith | 146.00 | 93.15 | -52.85 | -56.7% |
| 157 | WR | Joshua Palmer | 167.65 | 164.65 | -3.00 | -1.8% |
| 158 | TE | Kyle Pitts | 157.50 | 141.95 | -15.55 | -11.0% |
| 159 | TE | Brenton Strange | 161.50 | 164.25 | 2.75 | 1.7% |
| 160 | RB | Tank Bigsby | 160.10 | 150.95 | -9.15 | -6.1% |
| 161 | QB | Cam Ward | 157.15 | 156.25 | -0.90 | -0.6% |
| 162 | RB | Jaylen Wright | 163.50 | 182.30 | 18.80 | 10.3% |
| 163 | QB | Geno Smith | 157.80 | 160.15 | 2.35 | 1.5% |
| 164 | WR | Pat Bryant | 173.50 | 186.40 | 12.90 | 6.9% |
| 165 | TE | Hunter Henry | 167.20 | 174.60 | 7.40 | 4.2% |
| 166 | WR | Adam Thielen | 154.10 | 153.15 | -0.95 | -0.6% |
| 167 | WR | Jalen McMillan | 163.10 | 151.10 | -12.00 | -7.9% |
| 168 | RB | Roschon Johnson | 171.55 | 181.40 | 9.85 | 5.4% |
| 169 | WR | DeMario Douglas | 175.05 | 187.50 | 12.45 | 6.6% |
| 170 | RB | Braelon Allen | 173.60 | 167.40 | -6.20 | -3.7% |
| 171 | TE | Mike Gesicki | 169.85 | 167.00 | -2.85 | -1.7% |
| 172 | WR | Wan'Dale Robinson | 168.05 | 164.35 | -3.70 | -2.3% |
| 173 | TE | Zach Ertz | 163.10 | 157.70 | -5.40 | -3.4% |
| 174 | RB | Rico Dowdle | 173.45 | 165.60 | -7.85 | -4.7% |
| 175 | QB | Sam Darnold | 169.20 | 171.35 | 2.15 | 1.3% |
| 176 | RB | Will Shipley | 182.25 | 192.65 | 10.40 | 5.4% |
| 177 | WR | Alec Pierce | 176.90 | 171.65 | -5.25 | -3.1% |
| 178 | WR | Jaylin Noel | 188.35 | 167.10 | -21.25 | -12.7% |
| 179 | WR | Michael Wilson | 185.55 | 187.75 | 2.20 | 1.2% |
| 180 | TE | Cade Otton | 179.10 | 177.55 | -1.55 | -0.9% |
| 181 | QB | Aaron Rodgers | 175.25 | 209.20 | 33.95 | 16.2% |
| 182 | RB | Nick Chubb | 177.30 | 206.25 | 28.95 | 14.0% |
| 183 | RB | Miles Sanders | 190.60 | 220.85 | 30.25 | 13.7% |
| 184 | WR | Dyami Brown | 191.80 | 218.00 | 26.20 | 12.0% |
| 185 | TE | Mason Taylor | 185.15 | 171.80 | -13.35 | -7.8% |
| 186 | WR | DeAndre Hopkins | 181.75 | 175.40 | -6.35 | -3.6% |
| 187 | TE | Darren Waller | 188.50 | 228.00 | 39.50 | 17.3% |
| 188 | TE | Chig Okonkwo | 183.85 | 195.55 | 11.70 | 6.0% |
| 189 | RB | Dylan Sampson | 185.45 | 182.90 | -2.55 | -1.4% |
| 190 | WR | Dont'e Thornton | 191.20 | 228.00 | 36.80 | 16.1% |
| 191 | RB | DJ Giddens | 199.05 | 200.45 | 1.40 | 0.7% |
| 192 | WR | Darius Slayton | 198.20 | 205.50 | 7.30 | 3.6% |
| 193 | RB | Justice Hill | 190.10 | 186.85 | -3.25 | -1.7% |
| 194 | WR | Calvin Austin | 190.50 | 205.10 | 14.60 | 7.1% |
| 195 | RB | MarShawn Lloyd | 197.10 | 200.65 | 3.55 | 1.8% |
| 196 | WR | Keenan Allen | 196.85 | 181.70 | -15.15 | -8.3% |
| 197 | QB | Anthony Richardson | 196.40 | 168.60 | -27.80 | -16.5% |
| 198 | TE | Dalton Schultz | 200.65 | 192.50 | -8.15 | -4.2% |
| 199 | RB | Jarquez Hunter | 202.65 | 207.45 | 4.80 | 2.3% |
| 200 | RB | Brashard Smith | 206.85 | 211.35 | 4.50 | 2.1% |
| 201 | TE | Ja'Tavion Sanders | 210.15 | 214.80 | 4.65 | 2.2% |
| 202 | QB | Daniel Jones | 195.50 | 216.70 | 21.20 | 9.8% |
| 203 | WR | Andrei Iosivas | 203.00 | 190.20 | -12.80 | -6.7% |
| 204 | RB | Jerome Ford | 198.80 | 198.40 | -0.40 | -0.2% |
| 205 | WR | Tutu Atwell | 215.20 | 212.40 | -2.80 | -1.3% |
| 206 | TE | Juwan Johnson | 206.60 | 210.30 | 3.70 | 1.8% |
| 207 | WR | Tyler Lockett | 207.85 | 199.30 | -8.55 | -4.3% |
| 208 | TE | Pat Freiermuth | 203.60 | 166.55 | -37.05 | -22.2% |
| 209 | RB | Blake Corum | 211.60 | 201.75 | -9.85 | -4.9% |
| 210 | QB | Tyler Shough | 207.05 | 197.90 | -9.15 | -4.6% |
| 211 | WR | Jalen Coker | 214.20 | 201.75 | -12.45 | -6.2% |
| 212 | RB | Keaton Mitchell | 211.10 | 221.70 | 10.60 | 4.8% |
| 213 | RB | Kareem Hunt | 197.45 | 190.20 | -7.25 | -3.8% |
| 214 | TE | Theo Johnson | 212.05 | 219.10 | 7.05 | 3.2% |
| 215 | WR | Dontayvion Wicks | 215.80 | 212.50 | -3.30 | -1.6% |
| 216 | QB | Russell Wilson | 205.30 | 206.65 | 1.35 | 0.7% |
| 217 | WR | Adonai Mitchell | 220.00 | 217.35 | -2.65 | -1.2% |
| 218 | WR | Elic Ayomanor | 212.45 | 194.10 | -18.35 | -9.5% |
Rookie Reactions
WR Travis Hunter (42.7 > 57.9 / -35.5%)
Reports out of OTAs support the post-draft statements from Jacksonville brass about Hunter putting his most of his attention toward offense. But we've nonetheless seen concern manifest about Hunter's two-way status and thus his target workload, with fellow Jags wideout Dyami Brown (218.0 > 191.8, +12.0%) simultaneously rising in the ADP ranks. FWIW, Brown's rise is also related to positive comments/feedback from QB Trevor Lawrence and Jaguars beat writer Michael DiRocco. The current prices feel about right to me, leaving some room for Hunter to live up to his ADP without quite being a full-time player — something that was much tougher to do as a fourth-round pick.
RB Cam Skattebo (99.0 > 112.2 / -13.3%)
Tyrone Tracy has also dropped, albeit to a much lesser extent (from 101.0 to 103.25, -2.3%). I'm not sure why; maybe just pessimism about the Giants in general. But the prices here are cheap enough to make both RBs solid picks. I also like Devin Singletary as a 20th-round guy, figuring there's a decent chance he ends up with a team like Dallas or Chicago or Kansas City at some point. Singletary turns 28 in September, and he looked about the same as ever early last season before a groin injury opened the door for Tracy to take over. There's a real chance Singletary would be the best RB on the roster in Dallas, and maybe even for KC or Chicago.
WR Luther Burden (105.7 > 128.8 / -21.9%)
TE Colston Loveland (114.4 > 130.5 / -14.0%)
I was surprised these guys didn't fall more right after the 2025 NFL Draft, given the obvious concerns about rookie-year snaps and targets upon landing with a team that already had DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet. Now that Burden and Loveland both have fallen precipitously, they're good picks, with volume concerns fully baked into the acquisition cost.
RB Bhayshul Tuten (122.5 > 137.8 / -12.5%)
RB Jaydon Blue (129.0 > 144.0 / -11.6%)
Some of the initial post-draft enthusiasm has faded, with reports from spring practices suggesting Travis Etienne (Jacksonville), Miles Sanders (Cowboys) and Javonte Williams (Cowboys) were getting most of the first-team work. That's to be expected, and while I think Etienne will prove good enough to keep his spot, there are still a few different scenarios where Tuten's explosive speed pays off under new Jags coach Liam Coen. There's also a solid argument for buying the dip with Blue, given that Sanders and Williams were lousy for their former teams in both 2023 and 2024.
WR Jack Bech (128.6 > 158.2 / -23.0%)
WR Dont'e Thornton (228.0 > 191.2 / +16.1%)
Initial excitement about Bech landing with a WR-needy team seems to have given way to general pessimism about the Raiders and concern that the rookie's skillset clashes with that of Jakobi Meyers (and arguably Bowers).
How do these player stack up against the rest of the NFL? Visit our fantasy football rankings for a list of the top players for the remainder of the season.
Injury/Legal Updates
RB Christian McCaffrey (11.6 > 7.9 / +31.6%)
McCaffrey didn't have any limitations during the offseason program and earned rave reviews from teammate Kyle Juszczyk for his explosiveness. This ADP surge was probably inevitable, barring news of a concrete setback. McCaffrey is as likely as anyone else to be the leading non-QB fantasy scorer this year, although he comes with more downside/injury risk than the other top candidates, e.g., Ja'Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley. As someone who almost always chases the ceiling, I have zero problem with McCaffrey as a mid-R1 pick. And I won't be surprised if he's going in the top half of the first round later this summer.
WR Rashee Rice (33.1 > 21.5 / +35.2%)
WR Xavier Worthy (41.8 > 47.9 / -14.6%)
There have been promising Rice updates on two fronts this spring/summer. First, his legal case is delayed in the jammed-up Dallas court system, with no resolution expected until 2026 or beyond (a.k.a., no NFL suspension this year). Second, he participated in spring practices and was given the go-ahead for training camp, having apparently completed his rehab from last year's LCL tear.
Worthy has taken a big hit at Rice's expense, with the presence of fellow speedster Marquise Brown further augmenting concern about Worthy's volume. That's fair, but I think it's a good gamble at the 3/4 turn, given that Worthy is a 2024 first-round pick who earned a ton of playing time as a 21-year-old rookie and improved throughout the season. I thought he'd be overdrafted after what he did in the Super Bowl, but the concerns about volume have drowned that out. Keep in mind that his speed and QB situations mean it's possible to be a good pick at this price even if he's only getting 6-7 targets per game. Rice, meanwhile, is a bit on the pricey side, but I can't say it's outrageous given the potential he flashed early last season to become a PPR monster (24 catches in Weeks 1-3).
WR Brandon Aiyuk (87.1 > 97.4 / -11.9%)
Recent reports suggest Aiyuk is coming along well and avoiding setbacks but may nonetheless open the regular season on the PUP list (which would rule him out for the first four games). The price is cheap enough that we don't necessarily need him to contribute early in the season, especially given that September is free of bye weeks and usually lighter on injury-related absences.
QB Anthony Richardson (168.6 > 196.4 / -16.5%)
Richardson's shoulder injury reportedly is minor and won't impact his training camp status, but it's still concerning given that he had major surgery on the shoulder less than two years ago. On top of that, we've seen Colts beat writers speculating that Daniel Jones is in good shape to win the Week 1 starting job. It's a difficult situation for best ball, especially given that neither is especially likely to make it through a full season as the starter, be it due to injuries or benching for pure performance reasons.
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Changes in Miami (Jonnu/Waller)
WR Tyreek Hill (29.7 > 24.0 / +19.2%)
WR Jaylen Waddle (62.0 > 54.8 / +11.7%)
Many, including myself, have interpreted the Jonnu Smith trade as being at least slightly related to Miami's desire to get back to pushing the ball downfield. Last year's offense became a barrage of quick passes, in part because of injuries to Hill and Tua Tagovailoa, but also because the offensive line took a step back from 2022-23 and opponents arguably did a better job countering coach Mike McDaniel. Concerns about the O-line and Tua's durability carry over to 2025, but I do think the Dolphins will at least make an earnest attempt to jump-start Hill and Waddle.
RB De'Von Achane (17.8 > 14.3 / +19.7%)
RB Jaylen Wright (182.3 > 163.5 / +10.3%)
Wright was way undervalued in the first place, having only Alexander Mattison as backup competition after Raheem Mostert's departure this offseason. But I do wonder if people are overestimating the RB target share gain based on the Jonnu Smith trade. Yes, Smith caught a lot of screens and short-area stuff last year, but so did Achane. I think Miami wants to push the ball downfield more, like in 2022-23, which means trading Smith's targets for passes to Hill and Waddle (and also ostensible replacement Darren Waller).
I still think Achane is an acceptable pick at ADP, and Wright a fantastic one, but the reasoning behind their recent gains may not be so solid.
TE Darren Waller (228.0 > 188.5 / +17.3%)
I'm surprised to see Waller going this late and love him as a TE3 pick. Sure, he's less of a threat than Jonnu Smith to pile up a large number of targets, but Waller could still play when we last saw him late in the 2023 campaign. He missed a lot of time his final few seasons, but he drew targets (and did some damage with them) whenever he was on the field. He turns 33 in September, but with far less mileage than most players his age due to being a late bloomer (he switched from WR to TE, and then missed time due to substance abuse issues). Waller has played just 86 regular-season games, taking 3,758 snaps on offense (with 4,124 receiving yards, good for 1.10 yards per snap). If nothing else, he's a great TE3 pick for Miami stacks, especially those that only have one of the two WRs.
Changes in Pittsburgh (Rodgers/Jonnu)
WR DK Metcalf (51.2 > 43.6 / +14.8%)
QB Aaron Rodgers (209.2 > 175.3 / +16.2%)
I guess there was more concern than I'd assumed about Rodgers retiring, because both his ADP and Metcalf's have risen considerably since the signing became official in June. I'd sort of been assuming all along that it was just a matter of time, based on Pittsburgh's lack of other QB additions and multiple reports/quotes to that effect. Regardless, the new prices seem more or less fair. I don't really buy that a move out of Seattle will help Metcalf fully unlock his talent, but Rodgers does at least have a promising history of throwing a ton of passes to his best guy — and Metcalf is his best guy now by a country mile.
TE Jonnu Smith (93.2 > 146.0 / -56.7%)
TE Pat Freiermuth (166.6 > 203.6 / -22.2%)
Freiermuth was one of my favorite picks before the trade, but it's hard to get excited about him now, even at the much, much lower price. This could look like the 2023 Atlanta offense, in which Smith and Kyle Pitts both got enough targets to stay fantasy-relevant(ish) but not enough to be worth starting in typical leagues. I guess that means both have a shot to outperform ADP, but a big win relative to the cost probably means the other guy missed a bunch of time.
J.K. Dobbins Signing
[LOGO] RB RJ Harvey (53.2 > 63.9 / -20.1%)
RB J.K. Dobbins (190.5 > 112.6 / 40.9%)
Dobbins is unlikely to ever recover his pre-injury explosiveness, but he's a smart player who can stay on the field in all situations and block or catch passes. Both running backs seem like solid picks at ADP, with Denver's offense perhaps capable of supporting big-time RB production if Bo Nix takes another step forward (and Harvey/Dobbins provide the expected upgrade on last year's awful backfield).
Chubb Signing
RB Joe Mixon (57.8 > 46.0 / -25.7%)
RB Nick Chubb (206.3 > 177.3 / +14.0%)
Chub signed a one-year, $2.5 million contract that includes $1.5 million guaranteed. He'll presumably compete with Woody Marks and Dameon Pierce for backup work rather than really pushing Mixon, but it's possible Chubb becomes a problem for Mixon's workload if the second year back from an ACL tear brings improved explosiveness. It's also possible that Chubb, 29, just doesn't have anything left, but I do think the Texans will find a way to reduce Mixon's workloads (relative to 2024) one way or another. Mixon was putting up elite-RB1 numbers during the middle part of last season, but only after missing three games with an ankle injury early in the year, and he then faded badly in December before recovering in the playoffs.
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Other Big Movers
RB Saquon Barkley (2.5 > 4.1 / -45.8%)
There's been a lot of chatter on twitter about Barkley's massive workload across 20 games last season and how it increases the risk for injuries in 2025. I'm not really sold, given that evaluating similarly massive workloads entails dealing with very small samples in which regression to the mean is inevitable. That said, there's enough smoke to argue for Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson and Justin Jefferson ahead of Barkley — in addition to popular 1.01 Ja'Marr Chase — for full-PPR formats in particular. For half PPR, I'd probably still put Barkley at 1.02, or at least tied with Bijan and Gibbs for the distinction.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (11.4 > 9.6 / -18.2%)
NFL best ball players seem to be buying into the idea of St. Brown losing more targets to Jameson Williams, whose ADP has risen by 9.4 percent (50.9 > 46.1) since mid-May. New Lions OC John Morton said in mid-May that he expects a breakout season from Williams, and veteran Lions beat writer Dave Birkett expects Jared Goff to throw deep more often than he did under former playcaller Ben Johnson. Goff's 6.3 aDOT last season ranked 33rd out of 36 qualified passers, and he was just 29th out of 33 the year before (6.7 aDOT in 2023).
So, there's obviously a lot of room to add more deep throws, but I do think for Williams that might also mean fewer of the quick, schemed touches that helped prop up his stats during a 2024 breakout season. For St. Brown, it's enough of a concern to push him back to the 1/2 turn, in part because there are other WRs that offer more downfield impact with similar volume ceilings (Nico Collins, Brian Thomas). ARSB has also fallen some as a result of McCaffrey's rise, although Collins and Puka Nacua in the same ADP range interestingly avoided that fate.
RB Ashton Jeanty (8.4 > 11.8 / -39.9%)
TE Brock Bowers (16.0 > 18.6 / -16.3%)
WR Jakobi Meyers, meanwhile, has actually risen a bit since mid-May, going from ADP 75.4 to 71.7 (+4.8%). I'm not sure what's going on here, as we know these three guys are the safe bets for volume in Chip Kelly's offense. The Raiders likely will try to run a lot, but there's still a decent ceiling for pass volume, given the likelihood of defensive struggles and the possibility Kelly tries to play with pace (like he did in Philadelphia and San Francisco, and also at UCLA). Remember that his NFL offenses were typically near the top of the league in no-huddle rate and plays per minute.
WR Terry McLaurin (27.5 > 33.1 / -20.2%)
I'm not quite sure if this reflects concern over McLaurin's contract situation or is just an intelligent correction to over-enthusiasm earlier in the offseason. It was great to finally see what McLaurin could do with the benefit of quality QB play, but a career-high target rate of 24.8 percent was still a bit south of true Alpha territory. He's played in a bunch of offenses with weak target competition and never reached 25 percent, so I think at this point we just have to acknowledge that he lacks an elite volume ceiling.
That's more tolerable late in the third round than early in the third round, i.e., the new price is close enough to fair (plus it allows for McLaurin-Daniels stacks around the 3-4 turn). As for the contract situation... I think it's highly unlikely to get ugly, despite McLaurin's recent pessimistic comments. He'll get his extension/raise at some point this summer.
TE George Kittle (49.3 > 39.4 / +20.1%)
This is maybe the hardest ADP move to explain, with Kittle rising from the 4/5 turn to early fourth round since mid-May. One might think that optimism about Christian McCaffrey would slightly lower target-share expectations for Kittle, even with some level of concern about Brandon Aiyuk's availability early in the season. That's not the case, however, with people instead stoked about Kittle and pushing him closer to the Bowers/McBride tier and further from TE4 Sam LaPorta. The 3/4 turn seems early for a guy who hasn't seen triple-digit targets since 2019, even when considering that Kittle topped 1,000 yards both of the past two years.
RB D'Andre Swift (82.8 > 70.4 / +14.9%)
RB Isiah Pacheco (90.3 > 77.2 / +14.6%)
Swift and Pacheco both rose after the draft and have continued rising ever since. The Bears and Chiefs waited until the seventh round to draft running backs and still haven't signed any new veterans this summer, leaving them with two of the weakest RB depth charts in the league (but team context that could nonetheless lead to solid RB fantasy production).
RB Quinshon Judkins (70.8 > 79.5 / -12.3%)
This still hasn't had time to settle since Judkins recently was arrested for allegations of domestic violence. From what I've seen in my own drafts, his ADP had fallen some even before the arrests, and he's now dropping much further — to the 90s or 100s.
WR Josh Downs (98.0 > 85.3 / +12.9%)
QB Anthony Richardson's shoulder injury reportedly isn't serious enough to threaten his availability for training camp, but it does remind of the concerns about him in general, especially related to the major shoulder surgery he underwent as a rookie. Plus, the missed spring practices arguably give a slight boost to Daniel Jones' chances of winning the starting job even if Richardson's shoulder turns out to be a non-concern. The thinking here from best-ball drafters is that higher odds of Jones starting is good news for Downs' value, given that an offense with Jones at the helm likely will throw more short passes (and complete more passes) than an offense led by Richardson.
RB Jordan Mason (108.6 > 95.5 / +12.1%)
RB Travis Etienne (98.9 > 121.2 / +18.4%)
WR Keon Coleman (119.2 > 106.4 / +10.7%)
QB J.J. McCarthy (131.9 > 118.7 / +10.0%)
RB Tyjae Spears (139.4 > 123.8 / +11.2%)
RB Miles Sanders (220.9 > 190.6 / +13.7%)
We've seen positive reports on all of these guys this spring, but nothing concrete in terms of depth-chart standing, health progress, etc... more just the standard hype stuff and coach-speak that floats around every spring/summer. I will say that Etienne remains one of my favorite picks, even at his new price. And I've also continued drafting plenty of McCarthy even as his price has risen from the 11th/12th round to the 10th. Coleman and Spears are guys I liked at the old prices and am now neutral on, while Mason is someone I've simply been avoiding, largely because I worry that he'll split work with Ty Chandler if Aaron Jones goes down (plus I'm a heavy investor in McCarthy, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, hoping for Minnesota's passing game to take precedence over the rushing attack).
TE Kyle Pitts (142.0 > 157.5 / -11.0%)
Not sure what this is about, but I'm sick of him too, and really only drafting if he falls well below the new, reduced ADP, or sometimes as part of a late-assembled Falcons stack (e.g. Mooney-Penix-Pitts).
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