Fantasy football drafts are often won by exploiting market inefficiencies, and that starts with spotting fantasy football ADP rankings mistakes. Whether it's a quarterback being drafted for his ceiling or a tight end priced like a sure thing, these players are either undervalued or overhyped based on their current roles and team contexts.
Below, we break down three quarterbacks and three tight ends whose average draft positions don't match their likely outcomes. Use these insights to gain an edge before your next pick.
For more expert picks, check out RotoWire's fantasy football sleepers and NFL depth charts to monitor evolving roles.
Quarterback
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos – QB8
Nix dazzled in the second half of his rookie season, but fantasy managers may be chasing a ceiling that won't return.
He scored at least 25 fantasy points in three of his final seven starts, showcasing his dual-threat ability with 430 rushing yards and four touchdowns. His strong finish has created a perception that Year Two guarantees growth.
But head coach Sean Payton seems committed to a low-scoring, ball-control offense. The additions of J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey signal a shift toward improving the run game, and Denver's defense should be among the league's best. Unfortunately, both likely cap Nix's volume and weekly ceiling.
At QB8 in current fantasy football ADP, you're drafting him for his best-case scenario and ignoring a much riskier floor.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys – QB12
Injury concerns are real, but Prescott's ceiling and floor profile
Fantasy football drafts are often won by exploiting market inefficiencies, and that starts with spotting fantasy football ADP rankings mistakes. Whether it's a quarterback being drafted for his ceiling or a tight end priced like a sure thing, these players are either undervalued or overhyped based on their current roles and team contexts.
Below, we break down three quarterbacks and three tight ends whose average draft positions don't match their likely outcomes. Use these insights to gain an edge before your next pick.
For more expert picks, check out RotoWire's fantasy football sleepers and NFL depth charts to monitor evolving roles.
Quarterback
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos – QB8
Nix dazzled in the second half of his rookie season, but fantasy managers may be chasing a ceiling that won't return.
He scored at least 25 fantasy points in three of his final seven starts, showcasing his dual-threat ability with 430 rushing yards and four touchdowns. His strong finish has created a perception that Year Two guarantees growth.
But head coach Sean Payton seems committed to a low-scoring, ball-control offense. The additions of J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey signal a shift toward improving the run game, and Denver's defense should be among the league's best. Unfortunately, both likely cap Nix's volume and weekly ceiling.
At QB8 in current fantasy football ADP, you're drafting him for his best-case scenario and ignoring a much riskier floor.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys – QB12
Injury concerns are real, but Prescott's ceiling and floor profile are being mispriced.
He's missed time in three of the past five seasons, but the injury types (thumb fracture, hamstring, ankle) don't necessarily indicate future fragility. When healthy, Prescott has been elite, finishing as QB2, QB3, and QB7 since 2019.
With Dallas likely to throw often again and a receiving trio of CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson and George Pickens, Prescott has a top-five ceiling. If you're worried about durability, draft a backup late. Otherwise, he's a screaming value at QB12.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans – QB17
Last year was a fantasy letdown, but the bounce-back setup is quietly in place.
Stroud's 2024 disappointment stemmed from poor O-line play and a dysfunctional scheme, but Houston responded by upgrading both. New OC, new receivers (Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel) and better protection could unlock his upside again.
Most encouraging? Stroud rushed for 42 yards in each playoff game last season. If that usage sticks, he could flirt with a QB1 finish. At QB17, he's a bet on proven talent.
Tight End
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions – TE4
LaPorta is a proven TE1, but fantasy managers may be paying for last year's ceiling.
His breakout came midseason when injuries forced Detroit into shootouts. He averaged just 2.8 targets and 7.7 PPR points in Weeks 1-7, but then the pass rate spiked.
If the Lions' defense returns to form and they resume a run-heavy script with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, LaPorta may not see elite volume again. He's still a top-tier tight end, but at TE4, you're likely paying a premium.
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts – TE11
Warren was the 14th overall pick in this year's draft, but there are major red flags.
Quarterback instability (Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones) and a run-first offense headlined by Jonathan Taylor limit Warren's path to volume. Add in Michael Pittman's role as a short-area target hog, and the ceiling shrinks further.
Warren's fantasy football ADP suggests he'll be a weekly starter. That's a reach.
Mason Taylor, New York Jets – TE26
Taylor could be a fantasy steal.
He's a clear No. 2 option behind Garrett Wilson and profiles as a fast, smooth pass catcher. Justin Fields supported both DJ Moore and Cole Kmet in 2023, and Taylor could fill a similar role in New York.
At TE26, he's nearly free in drafts but carries real TE1 upside. He belongs on your late-round radar.
If you want to see about these players in more detail, watch it here:
Fantasy managers should approach fantasy football ADP rankings with skepticism. Drafting players based on projected volume, team tendencies and realistic ceilings, rather than highlight-reel potential, is the key to long-term value.
Use insights like these and tools such as RotoWire's fantasy football draft software to target undervalued players and dodge inflated ADPs. Winning your draft starts with avoiding mistakes.
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