This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Last week 2-6; –5.56 RW bucks
Overall 23-25; -10.10 RW bucks
A very tough couple weeks in a row that have accounted for a 4-13 record. The NFL has felt much harder to handicap this year for whatever reason, so I will look to sticking with some totals this week along with chalk props to hopefully get back on the winning side.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
There are a lot of under trends for both teams and in the series. The last 5 games between the Bengals and Ravens have gone under the total. The Bengals last 5 games and 10 out of 13 have gone under the total. The Ravens are 7-3 to the under in their last 10 games. Both teams are in the top 10 in rushing yards per attempt allowed on defense. Both teams are in the top 6 in scoring drives % allowed on defense.
BET – Under 45.5 (-106) for 2 RW bucks
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
My two favorite under teams are playing each other and I would be willing to play this up to 40 points if the total dropped that low. The total has gone under in 7 out of the last 10 Jets road games and in 8 out of the last 11 in the series. The Patriots are 10-3-1 to the under in their last 14 games. In Week 2, the Patriots beat the Jets 25-6 for a total of 31 points. I see more of the same here, but maybe not as lopsided. 24-13 sounds about right.
BET - Under 42.5 (-110) for 2 RW bucks
Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants
Two very bad offenses in this game especially with Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney out and Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton questionable.
The total has gone under in 6 out of the last 7 Giants home games. The total has gone under in 7 out of the last 9 Panthers games. The Giants are averaging 19 points per game while the Panthers average 24 points per game. The total seems to be exactly where it should be, but with both teams so banged up I am leaning towards a 20-17 type of score.
BET - Under 42.5 (-114) for 1.5 RW bucks
PLAYER PROPS
Darrell Henderson over 81.5 rushing yards (-113) for 1 RW buck
Henderson has rushed for 89, 82, and 79 yards over the last 3 games and gets a sweet matchup at home against the Lions. The Rams are -16.5 favorites so leaning on Henderson in the 2nd half after they build a big lead would be the thought here.
Chris Godwin over 71.5 receiving yards (-113) for 1 RW buck
With Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown out this week, Godwin should be able to fly over this total rather easily. The Bucs are a strong -11.5 home favorite against the Bears. The Bears have allowed 7 receivers to hit for 70 or more yards this season.
Davante Adams over 96.5 receiving yards (-113) for 1 RW buck
Adams has hit over this total in 4 out of 6 games. Washington ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. WFT has allowed 2 receivers over 97 yards, but also 7 more receivers over 80 yards.
Derrick Henry over 120.5 rushing yards (-113) for 1 RW buck
Henry has averaged 130.5 yards rushing per game this season and is on pace for a record-setting season. The total in this game is a whopping 57.5 and the game is at home in Tennessee. The Chiefs allow the 6th most rushing yards per game. His ability to break off big runs is attractive for a total rushing yards prop.