FanDuel NFL: Week 6 Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.

Through the first several weeks of the season, the main slate has been dominated by a couple fairly obvious games to stack. This week is quite different, as most teams are clustered between 20 and 24 implied points. We should never be afraid to get creative with lineups (in the contest context), but this week invites it. Let's jump in.  

The Games

A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.

•  There are only two games with a total over 45: Miami vs. Carolina and Arizona vs. Los Angeles Rams. The problem with each is that Miami and Los Angeles are significant favorites.
• In addition to the Dolphins and Rams, the Eagles, Vikings, Jaguars and Bengals have notable implied team totals.
• In contrast to past weeks, there aren't obvious games to target. That opens up a lot of the player pool from a game-environment perspective.

Value Options

This section will highlight players who project well on a point-per-dollar basis. DFS analysis will often focus on getting 3X return on a player's salary, or another similar mark. This is only a part of the analysis but can help identify potential salary savers or building blocks for lineups.

D'Onta Foreman vs. MIN ($6,000)

Both Roschon Johnson (concussion) and Khalil Herbert (ankle) are out, leaving the Bears with a depleted backfield. Foreman should take over the lead of the running back corps and has shown the ability to excel when pushed into a similar situation in 2022. In six games where he got at least 15 carries, he topped 100 rushing yards on five occasions while totaling five touchdowns. Minnesota is a league-average matchup and Chicago's offense is getting on track, so this sets up well for Foreman.

Jordan Addison   at CHI ($6,200)

Minnesota is an easy place to start when looking for value this week, because the absence of Justin Jefferson (hamstring) opens 27 percent of team targets and 39 percent of air yards. The choice is between Addison and K.J. Osborn ($6,200) given the price points, but Addison has the better chance of actually seeing his role expand. He's topped a 75 percent route participation rate only once this season, yet he's still managed to top 14 FD points on three occasions. He should be more involved overall without Jefferson, and he's commanded both a higher target per route run rate than Osborn while also averaging more yards per route run.

Of course, Minnesota and Chicago square off this weekend. We'll get into stacks in the next section, but this is a good one in addition to the trio of games highlighted in that section.

Other Value Options

QB Matthew Stafford ($7,300)
QB Geno Smith ($6,800)
RB Dameon Pierce ($5,900)
RB Chuba Hubbard ($5,500) 
WR K.J. Osborn ($6,200)
WR Josh Downs ($5,600)
WR Robert Woods ($5,500)
WR Tyquan Thornton ($4,100)

Stacks to Consider

Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals

This is arguably the best game to stack based on the implied totals. The case to make for stacking the contests is fairly straightforward, as Joe Burrow ($7,500) looked more like himself last week against the Cardinals. If nothing else, he showed the ability to distribute the ball effectively to Ja'Marr Chase ($9,300). There could reasonably be some skepticism based on the soft matchup, but he'll be in a good spot once again as the Seahawks enter the week having allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. More notably, they've allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Tee Higgins ($7,000) looks to be in line to return from a rib injury. There's some risk he's not 100 percent healthy, but he's maintained an impressive 34.4 percent targets per route run rate this season. His efficiency hasn't been there to this point, but the opportunity has.

Geno Smith ($6,800) lines up to be one of the better value quarterbacks of the week. His surface stats aren't all that impressive (14.3 FD points/game), but his QBR and net yards per attempt are similar to last year. The Seahawks have the reputation of being a run-heavy offense, but they currently rank ninth in pass rate over expectation. The Bengals have been a league-average defense against the pass but have allowed substantial performances to the likes of Nelson Agholor (14.8), Tutu Atwell (15.2), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (13.6) and Marquise Brown (14.1). Surely, Tyler Lockett ($6,600) and DK Metcalf ($7,500) can do some damage. They have had nearly identical roles this season, and Lockett in particular looks to be in for some positive regression.

Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers

The Dolphins should be in play every week and now they have the best implied team total of the slate. It's no secret who we should be stacking with Tua Tagovailoa ($8,300), Tyreek Hill ($9,800) and Jaylen Waddle ($6,800). It's worth noting just how much Hill has dominated targets (30.5 percent) and air yards (48.5 percent), so he's worth the premium price.

This game may seem like an odd choice given that the Panthers' offense stinks. However, Adam Thielen ($7,400) has looked bust-proof, topping 20 FD points in two of five games this season with another 16.9 point-performance as well. Even if it takes garbage time, there should be plenty of fantasy points to go around in this game. Price is a fairly obvious obstacle, but skinny stacking the MIN-CHI or some of the other best values of the slate opens things up considerably.

Honorable Mention: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

In short, this game is a good option based on the expected points, but it lacks the predictably condensed fantasy points of the games highlighted above.  

High-Priced Heroes

Travis Etienne vs. IND ($7,700)

The Jaguars have the chance to build what amounts to a two-game lead in the AFC South with a win over the Colts, as they'd own the season tiebreaker in addition to having a one-game advantage in the standings. Etienne will be a key, as only Christian McCaffrey has more carries this season. He's also seen an expanded role as a pass catcher, earning 21 targets compared to 45 all last season. That's a bigger advantage on DK, but this is a good spot for him as he managed 18.9 points against the Colts in Week 1 and the Indianapolis run defense has proven vulnerable.

Cooper Kupp vs. ARI ($8,700)

Kupp made his season debut in Week 5 and looked like he hadn't missed any time, earning targets at a 35.3 percent clip. The Cardinals have done a decent job against wide receivers for much of the season, but we just saw them get demolished by Chase in Week 5. That doesn't guarantee Kupp will do the same thing, but we know he'll get his looks and there's a long track record of efficiency between he and Stafford.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary)

Mike Evans vs. DET ($7,600)

We'll start with the bad as the Lions have one of the best defenses. However, they're a pass funnel unit, as opponents have a 65.4 percent pass rate against them, 4.2 percent over expectation. Both are top eight in the league. The Buccaneers don't exactly have a potent passing attack, but Baker Mayfield has peppered Evans with targets early this season (37.8 percent targets per route run).

Honorable Mention: T.J. Hockenson at CHI ($6,700)