FanDuel NFL: Week 16 Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.

It's an odd NFL schedule this week, but we still have a main slate Sunday kicking off at 1 p.m. EST. There are nine games, leaving the player pool smaller than typical. That is felt the most at running back, which will be the spot to pay up for this week. With that in mind, let's look at a full breakdown of the slate.

The Games

A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.

• The teams with the standout implied totals include the Dolphins, Lions, Cowboys, Bears and Falcons.
• The two games that are projected to stand out among the rest include the Cowboys-Dolphins and Lions-Vikings.

Value Options

This section will highlight players who project well on a point-per-dollar basis. DFS analysis will often focus on getting 3X return on a player's salary, or another similar mark. This is only a part of the analysis but can help identify potential salary savers or building blocks for lineups.

Chuba Hubbard vs. GB ($6,400)

Since Adam Thielen's slide, there haven't been many reasons to highlight the Panthers' offense. Hubbard is emerging as one, however, as he's seen a minimum of 24 touches in each of the last three weeks. He's had a floor of 10.6 points in that span, which isn't much to write home about, but at his price it wouldn't be a lineup killer. The case for Hubbard is his potential ceiling. The Packers have allowed 20 points to running backs in four consecutive games and will now be without De'Vondre Campbell (back) in the middle of their defense.

Chris Godwin vs. JAC ($6,900)

Godwin has been an afterthought most of the season, but suddenly he's turned things around and become a key part of the Tampa Bay offense once again. He's seen 23 targets in his last two games, during which he's combined to post 208 receiving yards and a score. We'd rather have Trevor Lawrence (concussion) active to push the points and pace of this game, but the Jaguars have been among the most susceptible teams in the league to allowing big games to wide receivers — highlighted by 15 touchdowns to the position, fifth highest in the league.

Other Value Options

QB Baker Mayfield vs. JAC ($7,300)
QB Joe Flacco at HOU ($7,100)
QB Nick Mullens vs. DET ($7,000)
QB Geno Smith at TEN ($6,600)
RB Antonio Gibson at NYJ ($5,500)
RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. at NYJ ($5,400)
WR Romeo Doubs at CAR ($5,700) (if Jayden Reed and Christian Watson are both out)
WR Parker Washington at TB ($5,300)
WR Michael Wilson at CHI ($5,100)
TE Tucker Kraft at CAR ($5,300)
TE Cade Otton vs. JAC ($5,200)

Stacks to Consider

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins

This is the obvious game to stack and is likely to be the most rostered. The case to be made is pretty simple, as the Cowboys and Dolphins boast two of the most explosive and highly concentrated offenses in the league. The problem is that both offenses are priced for that ceiling, so they'll need to deliver massive scores and surpass their implied point totals.  

There's no doubt Week 15 was a disaster for Dak Prescott ($8,500), but he's attempted at least 35 passes in five of eight games since Dallas' bye and has at least 30 attempts in nine consecutive matchups. That means a lot of targets for CeeDee Lamb ($9,400), who has a 28 percent target share this season. Jake Ferguson ($6,000) is the other reliable option in the offense as measured by targets, as he has exactly eight in each of his last three games. Brandin Cooks ($6,100) is capable of spike weeks when the offense really explodes. The Dolphins have allowed big performances to explosive offenses this season (34 to LAC w/Justin Herbert; 48 to Buffalo; 31 to Philadelphia; 21 to Kansas City), so there's a decent case that this could be a big overall week for the Dallas offense.

On the Miami side, the health of Tyreek Hill ($10,000) (ankle) will obviously have a significant impact on the game and the offense. Even if he's active, it doesn't seem like a week to play him due to the ambiguity of his health, though it's worth noting the performance of Jaylen Waddle ($8,100) (8-142-1 on nine targets) last week in Hill's absence. He's an even better play if Hill is active but presumably not at 100 percent, because Hill will take the attention of both the Cowboys' secondary and potentially DFS players. Finaly, Tua Tagovailoa ($8,000) doesn't carry nearly the same upside as Prescott because of how trusted Raheem Mostert ($8,800) is near the goal line and the team's willingness to rely on the run game when possible.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

This game has the potential to be the highest scoring of any on the slate. The Lions are explosive in the right conditions, and the dome (even on the road) should help their cause. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,600) would be the primary beneficiary. In dome games this season, he's averaged 6.9 catches, 100.1 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game. Sam LaPorta ($7,200) is likely to be popular after last week's three-touchdown explosion. The problem is that the Vikings aren't the Broncos from a matchup perspective and have allowed only four touchdowns to the position this season. The rest of the pass catching options are unreliable and alternate decent performances. Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,400) has all the momentum in the backfield, but David Montgomery's ($7,300) workload isn't going away. Again, we run into the matchup problem, as the Vikings have allowed the third-fewest rushing touchdowns to running backs this season.

Although their records wouldn't suggest it, the Vikings offense is actually the more intriguing in this spot. Nick Mullens ($7,000) checks in at a reasonable price. He's not an elite quarterback, but he does have three elite pass-catching options in Justin Jefferson ($9,200), Jordan Addison ($7,300) and T.J. Hockenson ($6,800). Addison had the spike week in Week 15, but Jefferson had the better role and is obviously the superior player. Even given the price disparity, Jefferson obviously has the better ceiling and is the preferable option. The Lions' secondary is a mess, but it hasn't allowed much production to tight ends.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears

This is the high-risk, high-reward game of the slate. For it to reach its potential, we want the Bears to jump out to an early lead. The way they do that is through Justin Fields ($8,300), DJ Moore ($8,200) and Cole Kmet ($6,200). The problem is that they are fully priced.

Kyler Murray ($7,600) hasn't yet hit his stride, but that hasn't stopped Trey McBride ($7,000) from breaking out across the last two weeks. The Bears' defense has improved, but not against tight ends. It's has allowed four touchdowns to the position in its last seven games. With Marquise Brown (heel) out, there's potential value in Michael Wilson ($5,100) and Greg Dortch ($4,700) (shoulder).

High-Priced Heroes

Derrick Henry vs. SEA ($7,900)

For those playing close attention, it was noteworthy that the value options at RB are … uninspiring. It's the position to pay up for this week, and thus heavily featured in this section. Henry had a disastrous week against the Texans, but he had previously had performances of 20.1, 24.5 and 17.6 points. He was reliant upon touchdowns in that span, but luckily the Seahawks have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns to running backs — tied for second most in the league

Rachaad White vs. JAC ($7,700)

The whole Tampa Bay offense is in a good spot to produce Sunday, and Mike Evans ($8,700) was also in consideration for this pick. Either is in play (as is a Bucs stack) and White has an ideal blend of rushing and receiving work out of the Tampa Bay backfield. In other words, he owns the entire Tampa Bay backfield. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has allowed more than 20 FD points in three consecutive games, putting White in a good position to keep his hot run going.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

DK Metcalf at TEN ($7,600)

The Titans' secondary has regularly stunk this season, and now it will be without Sean Murphy-Bunting (hip) and K'Von Wallace (quadriceps). More specifically, Tennessee has allowed 27.1 points to Keenan Allen, 21.1 to Amari Cooper, 18.5 to Diontae Johnson, 23.3 to Mike Evans, 27.6 to Calvin Ridley, 22 to Michael Pittman and Noah Brown 18.2. That's quite a laundry list of big performances. Meanwhile, the Seahawks get Geno Smith back, and Metcalf has made a career of big performances. This adds up to an eruption spot.