FanDuel NFL: Week 12 Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.

Thanksgiving is always a week with essentially two main slates, which is even more the case this year due to the additional Friday game. A lot of elite offenses are off the Sunday table as a result, including Detroit, Dallas and Miami. In particular, that leaves us with an uninspiring player pool at quarterback. Unlike most weeks, the typical build likely will include an expensive quarterback. As a result, getting the QB right — particularly for those who pay down — will be a key way to gain an advantage on this slate. Of course, that will require capitalizing on the savings at the position. Identifying spots for both of those things will be the focus of this week's breakdown.  

The Games

A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.

• The games with the highest totals include Buffalo-Philadelphia, Jacksonville-Houston and Rams-Arizona.
• The highest implied team totals include Kansas City, Philadelphia and Jacksonville.

Value Options

This section will highlight players who project well on a point-per-dollar basis. DFS analysis will often focus on getting 3X return on a player's salary, or another similar mark. This is only a part of the analysis but can help identify potential salary savers or building blocks for lineups.

Rachaad White at IND ($7,000)

White was added to the injury report Saturday with a knee issue. He's questionable, but if he plays, he has a great matchup. As we'll get to, the Colts-Bucs matchup is one to target because there are clear ways to attack each defense. The Colts allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, highlighted 12 touchdowns allowed. Meanwhile, White has seen at least 15 touches in each of his last five games. With his role as a receiver and at the goal line, he's a good value at his price. 

Rashid Shaheed at ATL ($5,800)

Shaheed isn't the typical value option, as he's produced based on big plays to this point in the season. However, in the absence of Michael Thomas (knee) in Week 10, Shaheed earned nine targets and was used in the short areas of the field. That gives him two paths to potential production in Week 12, and the foreseeable future. The downside is that this is a tough matchup, but as we've seen, Shaheed really only needs one big play to pay off his price.   

Other Value Options

QB Gardner Minshew vs. TB ($6,700)
RB Rhamondre Stevenson at NYG ($6,800)
RB Jerome Ford at DEN ($6,700)
RB Isiah Pacheco at LV ($6,600)
RB James Conner vs. LAR ($6,600)
WR Nico Collins vs. JAC ($6,900) 
WR Drake London vs. NO ($6,200)
WR Josh Downs vs. TB ($5,900) 
WR Rondale Moore vs. LAR ($5,200)
TE Cade Otton at IND ($5,000) 
TE Pat Freiermuth at CIN ($4,900)

Stacks to Consider

Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles

This is the highest total of the slate. Philadelphia is one of the top pass funnels in the league, as it allows the fewest rushing yards to running backs and the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Much has been made of the struggles of Josh Allen ($9,200) and Stefon Diggs ($8,700), but Allen has averaged the most fantasy points of any quarterback on the slate and has topped 25 FD points in three of his last five games. Diggs has been down in form lately, but he's in a great spot to bounce back. Dalton Kincaid ($6,000) hasn't necessarily taken a leap since Dawson Knox (wrist) went down, but he has at least six targets in each of his last five games. That gives him a safe floor, as he's tallied between 11.1 and 15 FD points four times in that span. Gabe Davis ($6,000) is an explosive option — he's topped 18 FD points three times this season — but is inconsistent (less than five FD points four times). Khalil Shakir ($5,700) is the true value option, as he draws targets at a similar rate to Davis and is more efficient. However, he runs far fewer routes, giving him less opportunity overall.

From the Philadelphia point of view, Buffalo's defense isn't a positive matchup on paper. However, the Bills will be without Dane Jackson (concussion), piling on top of their already existing injuries in the secondary. A.J. Brown ($8,800) and DeVonta Smith ($7,400) account for 80 percent of the team's air yards and 53 percent of total targets. Without Dallas Goedert (forearm), the target distribution is pretty straightforward, adding to the appeal.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

This is an interesting spot as both quarterbacks and top passing-catching options project to be very popular. For it to hit, the preferred game script is for the Texans to jump out to an early lead, as the Jags play conservatively as long as they're able.

The other danger is even if this game shoots out, the targets could be spread so that scores might not be concentrated enough for individual players to have tournament-winning upside. In Jacksonville, Calvin Ridley ($7,100), Christian Kirk ($6,800), Evan Engram ($5,800) and Zay Jones ($5,500) (knee) have a target-per-route-run rate of 21.3 to 22.7 percent. Kirk and Ridley stand out from a yard-per-route-run rate, but Kirk has topped out at 16 FD points and Ridley has been a more extreme version of Davis from a boom-bust perspective.

Similarly, Tank Dell ($7,800), Nico Collins ($6,900), Dalton Schultz ($6,800) and Robert Woods ($5,300) share targets fairly evenly. Woods is the least productive and Dell has emerged as the top option lately, but there's little guarantee of how opportunity will be distributed from week to week.

Despite the growing reputation of C.J. Stroud ($7,700), neither he nor Trevor Lawrence ($7,800) have shown tournament-winning upside consistently.

Overall, hitting on right combination of these players has the chance to be valuable, but I'd reserve this stack for high-volume DFS players rather than single-entry or three-entry max players.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts

This is another potentially popular stack, but it's particularly attractive due to the symmetry in which the sides align. The Buccaneers are another extreme pass funnel, and the Colts have a predictable receiving corps led by Michael Pittman ($7,600) and Josh Downs ($5,900). Downs has battled through a knee injury, but was left off the injury report this week — hopefully a sign he's fully healthy — and is a value option. The risk is pretty obvious in that Gardner Minshew ($6,700) has the potential to derail the offense any weekend.

The Colts are a strong pass defense and a weak run defense. As mentioned above, that puts White in a good position to produce.

High-Priced Heroes

Derrick Henry at CAR ($7,800)

Henry hasn't had his typical dominant season, and it's likely the best times of his career are in the past. This could be a spot for a vintage performance, however. First, it's easy to overlook that Henry has had a run of strong performances, even with Will Levis under center. From Weeks 2-8, he reached 17 FD points four times. He's had a disastrous last two weeks, but it came against the tough Tampa Bay run defense and in a blowout loss to the Jaguars. Now, Tennessee should have the chance to win against a defense that is best attacked on the ground.  

D'Andre Swift vs. BUF ($7,200)

Swift doesn't strictly fit in the sense of being a high-priced option, but he's an option worth highlighting. The Bills have allowed at least 15 FD points to lead backs in each of the last four weeks and have also surrendered spike performances to De'Von Achane and Travis Etienne this season. Stacking Diggs-Brown-Swift is a nice starting build that locks in a ton of guaranteed volume with a lot of upside. That will be expensive, but there are enough values available to make the build work.  

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

Kyler Murray vs. LAR ($8,000)

This selection is about two things. First, the state of the quarterback position. Given the short slate, upside is limited for those unwilling to pay up all the way. Murray offers the potential to produce with that top tier at the position without being priced that way. He's been mediocre as a passer but has been elite as a rusher in two games since returning from a torn ACL. Now, Murray draws a matchup against a Rams' defense that allowed Anthony Richardson to post a 10-56-1 line on the ground while Jalen Hurts racked up 72 yards and a rushing score. In Week 8, they allowed Dak Prescott to throw for 304 yards and four touchdowns. Murray should have the chance to get things done any way he chooses.

The best part of the Arizona offense is that the rest of the pieces are cheap, so it will be easy to stack Murray with any of his pass catchers. Particularly if Marquise Brown (heel) is out, Greg Dortch ($4,800) is the punt play of the week and would open a ton of salary elsewhere.