Exploiting the Matchups: Week 3 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

Week 2 brought a continuation of the league-wide trends from Week 1, with passing volume way down and passing efficiently slightly down relative to 2022 and 2023, seasons in which those numbers were lower than they had been from 2010 to 2021. We're now talking about a three-year trend that seems to have rapidly accelerated, and one might even call it a four-year trend if including the unusually-high-scoring, pandemic-impacted 2020 campaign as a relevant data point. (Personally, I prefer ignoring 2020 and using the numbers from 2018, 2019 and 2021 as the pre-2022 baseline).

There's no shortage of theories floating around the internet, but we seem to have at least a degree of agreement that the increased popularity of "two-high" defenses is partially responsible for decreases in both passing volume and efficiency. The traditional focus on run defense has given way to an increased emphasis on shutting down downfield passes, with many coordinators willing to give up some yards on the ground (and shallow completions) if it helps them avoid big plays through the air. 

Average depth of target (aDOT) has been in decline for years, and it's sitting at 7.4 league-wide through two weeks, down by 5 percent from last year's all-time low of 7.9. Offenses that run the ball well and/or have elite QBs are managing alright, but the have-nots seem to be struggling worse than they did in the past. Guys like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have successfully adapted to schematic defensive changes partially inspired by their success, while young QBs and lesser passers are settling for too many check-downs or struggling to find open receivers.

Schematic and strategic trends aren't necessarily the only factor, of course, with many suggesting that another big factor is a talent gap between the quality of pass rushers and offensive linemen in the league right now. That's incredibly hard to prove or disprove given the inter-dependence, but that doesn't mean it's not true. T.J. Watt arguably impacts offensive gameplans more than any defender since Lawrence Taylor, and there are a bunch of other players not far behind Watt's level of pass-rushing production.

Other popular explanations include poor QB talent, more QBs looking to run rather than pass, a lack of camp/preseason reps or a lack of ingenuity from playcallers. Anecdotally, it does seem like a lot of offensive coordinators have tried to lazily copy trends without having the necessary players or considering why plays and strategies that work great for Miami or Kansas City or San Francisco might otherwise not be successful in a different environment. Those "schemed"  quick passes that everyone loves are great for cheap PPR points, but they don't necessarily work so well in real life if opponents aren't worried about your running game or downfield passing.

Regardless of which explanation(s) one prefers — and even if there's eventually some so-called regression to the mean — we all need to adjust to a new reality with lower pass rates and reduced overall play volume. Trading downfield passes for short passes and runs means fewer clock-stopping incompletions, and there also aren't many teams really pushing the pace on offense right now. Teams are thus averaging 60.4 plays per game, the first time the number has been lower than 62.9 since 2008.

The higher rates of run plays is allowing for decent RB fantasy scoring relative to past seasons, but the same can't be said for WRs, TEs or QBs... even with increased rushing output the QB position has been much lower-scoring this year. We may need to adjust to lower baselines for what's considered a decent fantasy starter at these positions, and the lack of overall production means we need to be more patient than usual with under-performers, if only because there aren't many good options to replace them. 

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

• Joe Burrow (vs. WAS) — 76% started

Start Over — Anthony Richardson (vs. CHI), Dak Prescott (vs. BAL), Jayden Daniels (at CIN)

The Commanders made Baker Mayfield look like a legend and Daniel Jones like a legitimate NFL starter, giving up six passing TDs the past two weeks while allowing league highs for yards and points per drive (43.5, 3.63). Burrow, meanwhile, hasn't put up big numbers yet, but that figures to come eventually in one of the only offenses that isn't going along with the trend of running more often. In fact, Cincinnati easily leads the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE), with RBs Zack Moss and Chase Brown combining for only 28 carries so far. There's even some chance Burrow gets Tee Higgins (hamstring) back in the lineup come Monday, although I wouldn't hang my hat on that one just yet.

• Other Good Matchups: Deshaun Watson (vs. NYG), Gardner Minshew (vs. CAR)

Running Backs 👍

• D'Andre Swift (at IND) — 40% started

Start Over — Jerome Ford (vs. NYG), Javonte Williams (at TB) 

Swift started his Chicago tenure with consecutive bust games behind a struggling offensive line, but he should have room to run this week — and possibly a greater emphasis in the gameplan — against a Colts defense that's responsible for both of the 150-yard rushing performances in the NFL this season (30-159-1 by Joe Mixon and 32-151-0 from Josh Jacobs). This could set up a sell-high opportunity for fantasy managers, as many of the concerns surrounding Swift are unlikely to dissipate long term. Even if the Bears start blocking better and scoring more points, Swift will continue ceding third-down snaps to Travis Homer and goal-line/short-yardage work to Khalil Herbert. 

• Zamir White (vs. CAR) — 28% started

Start Over — Raheem Mostert (at SEA), Austin Ekeler (at CIN), Carson Steele (at ATL)

White jumped from 39 percent snap share Week 1 to 65 percent Week 2, even though the Raiders mostly played from behind in Baltimore this past Sunday. It didn't amount to much (6.8 PPR points) against a solid Ravens front, but similar workload shares likely would lead to double-digit points in a home game against the woeful Panthers. It may be the only opportunity White gets this season to play as more than a field-goal favorite, with the Raiders at -5 against a Panthers team that allowed Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams to combine for a 26-121-2 rushing line in the season opener before giving up 36-190-1 to J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards in Week 2.

• Other Good Matchups: Jordan Mason (at LAR), Zack Moss (vs. WAS), Najee Harris & Jaylen Warren (vs. LAC), Chuba Hubbard (at LV), Jerome Ford & D'Onta Foreman (vs. NYG), Bucky Irving (vs. DEN)

Wide Receivers 👍

• Amari Cooper (vs. NYG) — 63% started

Start Over — Michael Pittman (vs. CHI), Tank Dell (at MIN), Jaylen Waddle (vs. SEA)

I was wrong about Terry McLaurin taking advantage of a matchup with the Giants last week, as he led the Commanders in targets (seven) but had just 28 air yards and finished with a 5-17-0 receiving line. We're going back to the well for another slumping wideout facing Big Blue, only this one doesn't have the same concern about a lack of downfield work, ranking fourth in the NFL with 255 air yards. Cooper's combination of poor QB play and high aDOT hints at volatility, but he should still be worth starting for his 'boom' weeks, and a matchup with one of the league's worst cornerback groups creates better-than-usual odds for this to be one of them.

• George Pickens (vs. LAC) — 52% started

Start Over — Rashid Shaheed (vs. PHI), Calvin Ridley (vs. GB), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. MIA)

Pickens has been much better than his box-score numbers suggest, held back only by a lack of team pass volume (in positive game scripts) and a trio of big plays being wiped out by penalties (plus he drew a 37-yard pass interference penalty on Broncos CB Patrick Surtain last week). Despite losing three deep targets and a short TD catch to the aforementioned penalties, Pickens ranks second in air-yard share (54.6 percent), 14th among WRs for target share (27.5 percent) and 17th at his position in yards per route (2.43).

The Steelers will obviously continue to be a run-first team, but the pass volume will improve at least a little once they land in some neutral or negative game scripts, and Pickens' dominant share of the receiving work means he doesn't need 30-plus attempts to put up huge numbers. Look for the improvement to start this week against a Chargers defense that will be challenged for the first time this season (kind of) following cupcake matchups with Las Vegas and Carolina.

• Other Good Matchups: Brandon Aiyuk & Jauan Jennings (at LAR), Jameson Williams (at ARZ), Chris Olave & Rashid Shaheed (vs. PHI), Diontae Johnson & Adam Thielen (at LV), Khalil Shakir & Keon Coleman (vs. JAX)

Tight Ends 👍

• Brock Bowers (vs. CAR) — 67% started

Start Over — Mark Andrews (at DAL), Sam LaPorta (at ARZ), Dalton Kincaid (vs. JAX)

While unlikely to benefit from negative game script for a third straight week, Bowers has shown enough in terms of both usage and talent that he needs to be treated as a top-five tight end. As such, he should be started Week 3 against a lousy Panthers defense unless your alternative is George Kittle, Trey McBride or Travis Kelce — and even then I consider it a toss-up against Kelce. That's not to say Sam LaPorta and Mark Andrews are incapable of overtaking Bowers at some point, but the rookie has been miles ahead so far, accounting for one-fourth of his team's targets while LaPorta and Andrews shockingly linger below 10 percent. My Week 3 TE ranks: Kittle>McBride>Bowers=Kelce>Andrews=LaPorta>Kincaid>Ferguson=Goedert>Pitts

• Other Good Matchups: George Kittle (at LAR), Brock Bowers (vs. CAR) 

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

• Trevor Lawrence (at BUF) — 13% started

Start Instead — Geno Smith (vs. MIA), Derek Carr (vs. PHI), Deshaun Watson (vs. NYG)

Jacksonville's offense won't be as bad all season as it was the past two weeks, but we shouldn't expect the turnaround to happen this Monday against a Buffalo defense that allowed just three TDs combined to Arizona and Miami. The Bills haven't missed a beat despite losing key veterans this offseason, in part because DE Greg Rousseau (3.0 sacks) and DE Von Miller (2.0 sacks, fifth in pass-rush win rate) look like one of the best pass-rushing tandems in the league. Those two along with DT Ed Oliver spell trouble for a Jacksonville offensive line that looks about as bad as last year's version, ranking 24th in pass-block win rate and 25th in PFF pass-blocking grade.

• Other Tough Matchups: Justin Herbert (at PIT), Aaron Rodgers (vs. NE), Daniel Jones (at CLE), Jacoby Brissett (vs. NYJ)

Running Backs 👎

• Aaron Jones (vs. HOU) — 75% started

Start Instead — Zach Charbonnet (vs. MIA), Rhamondre Stevenson (at NYJ)

Jones relies on efficiency more so than volume, playing 58 percent of snaps through two weeks while logging only nine more touches (30-21) than backup Ty Chandler. Jones' hip injury doesn't seem serious given that he opened this week as a limited practice participant, but he'll have a tough draw for Week 3 even if the Vikings clear him for his usual workload. The Texans are picking up where they left off last season, allowing just 75 total rushing yards to RBs despite facing Jonathan Taylor in Week 1. Last year, Houston ranked second in YPC allowed (3.5), including a league-low 3.35 on carries by running backs specifically. 

• J.K. Dobbins (at PIT) — 61% started

Start Instead — Tony Pollard (vs. GB), Brian Robinson (at CIN)

As great as he looks so far, Dobbins has been aided by favorable matchups against the Raiders and then Panthers. He'll get no such help this week, which means he should be treated like a mid-to-low RB2 despite producing as an RB1 through two games. It might seem like common sense to give Dobbins more work given that he's been far more effective than Gus Edwards — who took one more carry in each of the first two games — but Dobbins' brutal history of injuries means the Chargers may continue to tread lightly there. It's thus possible Dobbins is again limited to about half of the team's carries against a completely healthy Pittsburgh defense that held Bijan Robinson to an 18-68-0 rushing line Week 1 before completely shutting down Javonte Williams (11-17-0) in Week 2. 

• Other Tough Matchups: Kyren Williams (vs. SF), Ezekiel Elliott & Rico Dowdle (vs. BAL), Carson Steele & Samaje Perine (at ATL)

Wide Receivers 👎

• Jaylen Waddle (at SEA) — 73% started

Start Instead — Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. MIA), Calvin Ridley (vs. GB), Jameson Williams (at ARZ)

The main problem here is Dolphins QB Skylar Thompson, who threw for 9.4 YPA and five TDs as a rookie during the 2022 preseason but otherwise has terrible stats in the NFL (including during preseason play the past two years). Prior to garbage time last week, Thompson's only action in games that counted came in 2022, when his 150 pass attempts between the regular season and playoff yielded 5.03 YPA and two TDs against five INTs. That's terrible even for a backup and creates real concern about Waddle producing at a sub-fantasy-starter level for the next four games (possibly longer).

A trip to Seattle won't make things any easier, with the Dolphins making the longest possible road trip for a non-international game and playing in one of the league's toughest environments. The Seahawks have some big injury questions in the front seven, but the secondary looks much healthier, with the only concern (CB Devon Witherspoon - hamstring) having managed limited practice participation to start the week. Fellow starting corner Riq Woolen is PFF's highest-graded CB through two weeks, perhaps getting back to his rookie-year level after a sophomore slump in 2023. Tyreek Hill still needs to be started in fantasy based on his dominant talent and usage, but Waddle should be benched if a decent alternative is available.

• Jayden Reed (at TEN) — 27% started

Start Instead — Jerry Jeudy (vs. NYG), Diontae Johnson (at LV), Christian Kirk (at BUF)

Reed's incredible Week 1 made it tough to remove him from lineups last week even though we knew the Packers would lean on their run game more than usual with Malik Willis under center. The extent to which that was true ultimately was surprising, with Willis attempting only 14 passes while six players (including Reed) combined for 53 carries. The Packers will now decide between starting Willis again or going with a less-than-full-strength Jordan Love (knee), and they'll be on the road against a Titans defense that has already shut down DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Garrett Wilson. 

The Titans even have a standout slot corner in Roger McCreary, further increasing the probability that Reed needs rushing production to save his week. As great as he's been running the ball, Reed got only two attempts last week and had just three games last season with multiple carries.

• Other Tough Matchups: Drake London & Darnell Mooney (vs. KC), Michael Pittman & Alec Pierce (vs. CHI), Brian Thomas (at BUF), Quentin Johnston & Ladd McConkey (at PIT), Wan'Dale Robinson (at CLE)

Tight Ends 👎

• Kyle Pitts (vs. KC) — 82% started

Start Instead — Brock Bowers (vs. CAR), Dallas Goedert (at NO), Jake Ferguson (vs. BAL)

On the one hand, Kansas City has allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends through two weeks, giving up huge games to Baltimore's Isaiah Likely and Cincinnati's Mike Gesicki. On the other hand, the Chiefs have done an excellent job shutting down their opponents' top receiving options, including Ravens TE Mark Andrews (2-14-0). Pitts hasn't done anything special since his rookie season, but he still commands a certain level of respect based on reputation and athleticism, making it unlikely the Chiefs overlook him as a potential Option B behind Drake London. The Chiefs also happen to have one of the healthiest defenses in the league, with backup defensive end Charles Omenihu (PUP - knee) being the only absentee projected for a somewhat significant role.

• Other Tough Matchups: Hunter Henry (at NYJ), Colby Parkinson (vs. SF)

Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)

QB Geno Smith (vs. MIA)

QB Derek Carr (vs. PHI)

RB Carson Steele (at ATL)

RB Chuba Hubbard (at LV)

WR Jerry Jeudy (vs. NYG)

WR Keon Coleman (vs. JAX)

TE Hunter Henry (at NYJ)

K Dustin Hopkins (vs. NYG)

D/ST Buccaneers (vs. DEN)

D/ST Seahawks (vs. MIA)

For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 35 Percent Rostered)

QB Deshaun Watson (vs. NYG)

QB Sam Darnold (vs. HOU)

RB Bucky Irving (vs. DEN)

RB Samaje Perine (at ATL)

WR Gabe Davis (at BUF)

WR Adam Thielen (at LV)

TE Darnell Mooney (vs. KC)

TE Colby Parkinson (vs. SF)

TE Noah Fant (vs. MIA)

K Greg Zuerlein (vs. NE)

D/ST Raiders (vs. CAR)

D/ST Bengals (vs. WAS)

For Deep Leagues (Under 15 Percent Rostered)

QB Gardner Minshew (vs. CAR)

RB Cam Akers (at MIN)

RB D'Onta Foreman (vs. NYG)

RB Justice Hill (at DAL)

WR Jauan Jennings (at LAR)

WR Jordan Whittington (vs. SF)

WR Rashod Bateman (at DAL)

WR Andrei Iosivas (vs. WAS)

TE Zach Ertz (at CIN)

TE Jonnu Smith (at SEA)

K Daniel Carlson (vs. CAR)

K Blake Grupe (vs. PHI)

D/ST Titans (vs. GB)