Beating the Book: NFL Week 17 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the NFL Week 17 edition of Beating the Book, where we give you NFL ATS picks for every game, every week.

We're coming off of a strong Week 16 in which we went 11-5 ATS and 12-4 SU, but we still managed to lose our best bet of the week, as the Lions' defense no-showed in an ugly home loss to the Steelers. Nonetheless, we're back above .500 for the year and will look to keep the momentum rolling as we head into Christmas week.

The slate begins with a three-game set on Christmas Day – a trio of matchups that looked significantly juicier in September than they do right now. Dallas pays a visit to Washington in a battle of eliminated teams, Detroit looks to keep its slim playoff chances alive at eliminated Minnesota, and the Broncos head to Kansas City as 12.5-point favorites over the eliminated Chiefs.

Playoff status aside, we'll likely be treated to not backup QBs, but third QBs, for the Commanders, Vikings and Chiefs. Buckle up.

Following the Christmas Day slate, we have a pair of much more intriguing games on Saturday with Houston facing the Chargers and the Packers hosting the Ravens. Texans-Chargers will hold major AFC playoff implications, while the Packers can clinch a postseason berth – and eliminate the Ravens – with a win.

The Sunday/Monday slate is a healthy mix of meaningful and meaningless games, headlined by Seahawks-Panthers, Eagles-Bills and Bears-49ers. 

You can find my thoughts and score predictions on each of those games, and the entire NFL Week 17 slate, below. As always, our best bet of the week will be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 16:

• Chargers +2.5 at Cowboys: The Cowboys' defense continues to be one of the most bankable units in the NFL – and not in a good way.
• Patriots +3.0 at Ravens: Much like the Chargers, we liked the Pats to win outright as a road dog. Even after Lamar Jackson went out, the Ravens had a prime opportunity to salt away a two-score lead and couldn't avoid a collapse.

Worst calls of Week 16:

• Buccaneers -3.0 at Panthers: I'm done with the Bucs.
• Colts +6.0 vs. 49ers: Indy's offense showed up, but the defense turned in one of the worst performances of the season and didn't force a single stop until late in the fourth quarter.

Last week: 11-5 ATS; 12-4 SU; best bet lost (DET -6.5)

On the season: 120-115-5 ATS; 155-84-1 SU; 7-9 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Christmas Day Slate

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders

Spread: Cowboys -7.0

Total: 50.5

After a brief midseason revival, the Cowboys have now dropped three in a row, giving up 34 points to the Chargers, 34 to Minnesota and 44 to Detroit. I'm not sure the wheels were ever on the Dallas defense, but if they were, they're completely off now.

With that said, the Cowboys are touchdown favorites on the road for a reason. And that reason is the Commanders will likely be rolling out their third quarterback, Josh Johnson, this week. Dallas is so vulnerable in the back-end that Washington will likely make this uncomfortable, but over the course of 60 minutes, I like the Cowboys to eventually pull away against what's an equally leaky Commanders defense.

Washington will also likely be without Laremy Tunsil, while Sam Cosmi was placed on IR this week.

The pick: Cowboys 33 – Commanders 20

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Lions -7.0

Total: 43.5

The Steelers picked up one of the most impressive wins of Week 16, but it was also a massive disappointment for the Lions, who now find themselves on the fringe of the NFC playoff race. We made the Lions our best bet last week in large part because we figured they'd be able to run on the Steelers, even with a banged-up offensive line. That was, in fact, not the case, as Detroit abandoned the running game early on and resorted to a high-volume passing approach.

Despite Jared Goff throwing for 364 yards on 54 attempts, the Lions ended up with only 24 points and managed to give up 481 yards of offense to the Steelers, including 230 yards on the ground. Detroit's defense is once again stacked with injuries, but it was nonetheless an alarming performance given the circumstances.

In order to avoid elimination, the Lions need to win this game, and they'll get the benefit of facing Max Brosmer with J.J. McCarthy battling a fractured hand. Given what we've seen from Brosmer so far, that should tilt the scales in the Lions' favor, but Detroit's defense could be enough of a liability for Minnesota to find a way to hang around.

The bigger battle may be the ground game for Detroit. The Lions will need to run it against Brian Flores, and they were unable to do so in the first matchup, when the Vikings limited David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to 65 yards on 20 carries in a 27-24 upset win in Detroit.

We'll take the Lions to stave off elimination for at least another 24 hours – a Packers win over Baltimore knocks them out – but it's tough to back this team right now, even in what's typically been a profitable, off-of-a-loss spot.

The pick: Lions 24 – Vikings 14

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Broncos -12.5

Total: 36.5

We'll keep this one simple. Denver has messed around as a favorite plenty this season, but the Chiefs come into this game looking about as dead as it gets.

KC wasn't playing well with Patrick Mahomes in the lineup, and, lo and behold, the offense looks even worse without him. Heading into Nashville as road favorites, the Chiefs managed just 131 yards of total offense and 3.1 yards per play in what turned into an ugly loss. Gardner Minshew going out early didn't help, but I don't think it would've changed the final result. 

Understandably, it's difficult for the Chiefs' veteran roster to get up for a meaningless game when they came into the season expecting to play in the Super Bowl. With motivation at an all-time low, multiple key pieces banged up, and Chris Oladokun set to start for KC, we have to side with Denver to let out some frustrations after last week's loss to the Jags.

The pick: Broncos 23 – Chiefs 3

Saturday Slate

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -1.5

Total: 39.5

The Chargers have clinched a playoff spot but are still playing for seeding, as well as the AFC West title, while the Texans still have some work to do to officially punch their ticket. Indy getting blasted by the Niners on Monday night means Houston just needs one win – or a Colts loss – to sew up their spot, but they can still catch the Jaguars for the AFC South title, provided Jacksonville loses to either Indy this week or Tennessee in Week 18.

Either way, this is one of the most meaningful games on the slate and should be an excellent defensive matchup. Since most of us wrote off the Chargers mid-season after Joe Alt joined Rashawn Slater on IR, the Chargers have done nothing but rip off impressive wins over the Raiders, Eagles, Chiefs and Cowboys – the last three as underdogs.

Even with a shaky offensive line and an injured hand, Justin Herbert continues to play at a high level, while the Chargers' defense has held five of its last six opponents under 20 points.

Meanwhile, the Texans come in riding a seven-game winning streak that includes victories over the Jags, Bills, Colts (with Daniel Jones) and Chiefs. They were nearly tripped up by the Raiders last week but avoided the true disaster scenario in a 23-21 win.

Houston's offense remains a question mark, particularly against quality defenses, but the Texans' pass rush should have major advantages over the Chargers' patchwork offensive line. This is much more of a "I just want to sit back and watch this game objectively" spot for me, but we'll take Houston to win a lower-scoring game and keep the pressure on Jacksonville.

The pick: Texans 20 – Chargers 17

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -2.5

Total: 40.5

As I write this on Tuesday evening, we have no idea who will be playing quarterback for either team. Jordan Love is in concussion protocol and Malik Willis has a shoulder injury, while Lamar Jackson is nursing the "severe back bruise" he picked up just before halftime on Sunday night.

The unknowns at the most important position in sports make this impossible to handicap, but my initial lean is on the Packers – I think one of Love or Willis will be available – to ride their defense to a home win. Whether Lamar plays or not – I'm guessing he won't – I simply do not trust the Ravens on either side of the ball right now. 

Playcalling remains a mess, Derrick Henry is off the field on key drives, and the defense had no answers for Drake Maye on Sunday. 

The pick: Packers 20 – Ravens 14

Sunday Early Slate

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Seahawks -7.5

Total: 42.5

Carolina pulled one of the upsets of the season on the Rams a few weeks ago, and now it's Seattle's turn to attempt to avoid that same fate. The fact that Carolina did beat the Rams should mean that Seattle will have its guard up, but the Seahawks are coming off of a wildly improbable home win and this could be a trip-up spot with San Francisco looming on the schedule in Week 18.

My initial lean was on Seattle to come in and handle business, but Sam Darnold is mistake-prone enough that an opportunistic Panthers' secondary should be able to generate a turnover or two. The question is whether Carolina's offense can do enough to keep this within the number. 

I've been extremely reluctant to buy in on the Panthers – I'm still not in, for the record – but I think they can limit the Seahawks just enough to make this a touchdown game. Note: this would buck the nine-game trend of Carolina alternating wins and losses.

The pick: Seahawks 24 – Panthers 17

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -7.5

Total: 53.5

While Cincy's season is over, that didn't stop the Bengals from putting 45 points on the Dolphins last week in a game that completely got away from Miami after halftime. The Dolphins built a 14-10 lead, then promptly went 3-and-out, fumble, interception, out on downs, interception, 3-and-out on their next six drives

Cincinnati ended the day with 407 yards of offense and 6.7 yards per play, going 6-for-6 in the red zone behind three touchdowns from Chase Brown and a dominant showing by Joe Burrow. When whole, the Bengals are still among the league's best offenses, and going up against a rookie quarterback in Quinn Ewers made life easier on one of the league's worst defenses.

Cincy won't get that benefit again this week, but the Bengals do get a Cardinals team that's lost 12 of its last 13 games since starting 2-0. Jacoby Brissett, Michael Wilson, Trey McBride and Co. have been a fantasy goldmine, but it hasn't exactly translated to wins. Still, after a letdown game last week against Atlanta, this should be a great opportunity for the Cardinals to get back on track in a showdown between two extremely vulnerable defenses.

More than anything, I like this is another shootout game, but we'll take the touchdown with Arizona. 

The pick: Bengals 38 – Cardinals 35

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Steelers -3.0

Total: 33.5

We have an interesting situation here, as the Steelers will know the result of the Ravens-Packers game before kickoff on Sunday.

If Baltimore wins, the Steelers will also need a victory over Cleveland to clinch the AFC North and avoid a Week 18 win-and-in game against the Ravens. If the Ravens lose, then the division belongs to Pittsburgh, which would be virtually (but not 100%) locked into the No. 4 seed.

As noted above, we like the Packers to beat the Ravens, so we could see a scenario – as the line and total reflect – in which this is essentially a meaningless game for the Steelers, who are already without DK Metcalf (suspension) and could opt to rest some regulars, including their 42-year-old starting quarterback.

Much like the Green Bay-Baltimore game, we're forced to guess how these scenarios will play out, but if Pittsburgh does enter Sunday with the division locked up, this becomes a very winnable game for the Browns. For now, we'll assume that's the case and take Cleveland to cover, but we'll issue an updated pick (and line) ahead of kickoff Sunday.

The pick: Browns 17 – Steelers 14

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Jags -6.5

Total: 47.5

The Jags are the hottest team in football right now, reeling off six straight wins and coming off of one of the bigger victories in franchise history last week. Offensively, Jacksonville has now scored at least 25 points in eight straight games and became only the second team – along with the Giants, of course – to put 30 on the Broncos' defense.

With the Texans also running hot, and keeping pressure on the Jags in the division, this is still very much a meaningful game, and while it would be a post-Denver letdown spot, it could also be a meaningless game for Indy, pending the result of Texans-Chargers on Saturday. If Houston wins, the Colts are officially eliminated from playoff contention.

Philip Rivers was able to move the ball on the Niners' defense on Monday night, but he'll go up against a much better unit this week, with the Jgas climbing up to third in EPA per play and fourth in EPA per pass.

We won't be surprised if the Colts make a spirited run to play spoiler, but with the chance that this game is meaningless, we'll lean toward the Jags.

The pick: Jaguars 30 – Colts 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Bucs -5.5

Total: 46.5

I would love to say this should be a walk-over spot for the Bucs, but Tampa Bay has definitely shown us over the last two months that this is a broken operation. That doesn't mean they won't still win the NFC South, but it's looking like whichever team emerges from that division will be a sacrificial lamb in the Wild Card round.

On the other side, Miami completely let go of the rope in the third quarter last week against Cincinnati behind four consecutive turnovers, but we saw some positives out of Quinn Ewers, and this should be a plus matchup against what's devolved into one of the league's worst pass defenses.

The pick: Bucs 24 – Dolphins 20

New England Patriots at New York Jets

Spread: Pats -12.5

Total: 42.5

The Pats are still very much in the mix for the 1-seed in the AFC, so I don't think we see a letdown game here against Brady Cook. The Jets were able to hang in with the Saints last week – that was a 9-6 game until late in the third quarter – but this is a major level-up in competition for a team that's been out-scored 111 to 36 over its last three games.

The pick: Patriots 30 – Jets 14

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Saints -2.5

Total: 38.5

As far as matchups between two long-eliminated teams go, this should actually be a fun matchup. The Saints have ripped off three wins in a row, while the Titans were able to handle the shorthanded Chiefs on Sunday in what was pretty easily their most-complete game of the season.

Defensively, the Titans are still one of the most underrated run defenses in the NFL, but the Saints are not overly interested in even trying to run the ball these days, so I see this as another high-volume spot for Tyler Shough, who threw for 300 yards on Sunday and is attempting 36.4 passes per game over his last five starts. 

We won't be surprised if Tennessee wins this game outright against what's still a very limited Saints team, but with the number sitting at 2.5, we'll side with New Orleans to win by a field goal.

The pick: Saints 23 – Titans 20

Sunday Afternoon Slate

New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Giants -1.5

Total: 41.5

This is really tough because my initial lean was on the Raiders, but we received news Wednesday morning that Brock Bowers will undergo season-ending surgery. For a team with perhaps the most limited group of skill players in the NFL, that is a crushing blow.

With that said, this is still very much a winnable game for Vegas, which has climbed all the way up to No. 2 in the NFL in EPA per rush on defense. That could spell trouble for the Giants, who have basically abandoned the passing game of late and ran the ball on their first 17 – yes, 17 – plays last week against Minnesota.

Ultimately, the U41.5 is my favorite play here, but we'll still side with Vegas to find a way to win in what could be a battle that decides the No. 1 overall pick.

The pick: Raiders 17 – Giants 14

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -1.5

Total: 43.5

It's going to be multi-TVs-necessary day in the late window with this game going up against Giants-Raiders. While both teams have clinched playoff spots and are unlikely to make major seeding moves, this is still a fascinating measuring-stick game for each side.

Buffalo is coming off of a near-loss to the Browns, and while the Eagles have won two straight, those wins have come over Vegas and Washington, so it remains to be seen if Philly's offense is actually back on track. Facing Josh Allen is a major level up from Kenny Pickett and Marcus Mariota/Josh Johnson, but the Eagles should have distinct advantages over a shaky Bills defense that ranks 31st in EPA per rush. 

With Jalen Carter set to return, and Lane Johnson potentially pushing for a return, we'll fade the public and take the Eagles to get a statement win on the road. Either way, this is a game that will go a long way toward coloring our opinion of both teams heading into the playoffs.

The pick: Eagles 27 – Bills 23

Sunday Night Football

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -3.0

Total: 51.5

Tricky game to finish out the Sunday slate. The Niners are at home, but they're on a short week and may be without George Kittle, who departed Monday night's game at Indy with a leg injury. Meanwhile, Chicago looked mostly bad for 58 minutes against Green Bay on Saturday before pulling off one of the more improbable wins of the season.

Chicago has somehow thrived in those situations all year, and while you have to tip your cap to the Bears for finding ways to win, no team has caught more breaks than Chicago. With that said, Caleb Williams taking care of the ball is not a fluke, and the Bears' running game should have advantages against a Niners' defense that had trouble with a Philip RIvers-led attack on Monday night.

Ultimately, if Kittle plays, this is a Niners spot for me, but it's closer to stay-away territory.

The pick: 49ers 30 – Bears 24

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Rams -7.5

Total: 49.5

While I still see the Rams as easily the most-complete team in the NFL, they've dropped two of their last four games and will be without Davante Adams again on Monday night. To their credit, the Rams have scored 37 and 28 points in each of their losses – to Carolina and Seattle – so the offense hasn't been an issue, but the defense has allowed 38, 34 and 31 in three of its last four games.

The question is whether we trust Atlanta to take advantage of a somewhat-shaky secondary. The Falcons are coming off of a convincing win over the Cardinals, but Arizona is one of the league's worst pass rushes and wasn't able to bother Kirk Cousins in a game where the Falcons did not punt.

LA should be able to put enough pressure on Cousins to force mistakes, so while I don't love the Rams at this number, it's tough to picture the Falcons going score-for-score over the course of 60 minutes.

The pick: Rams 30 – Falcons 21