Exploiting the Matchups: Week 13 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

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Published on November 27, 2024

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Baker Mayfield (at CAR) — 53% started

Start Over — Jordan Love (vs. MIA), Jared Goff (vs. CHI), Tua Tagovailoa (at GB)

The Bucs scored at least 20 points in the three games they played without Mike Evans or Chris Godwin (all losses) and then put up 30 last week with Evans back in the lineup. Their offense has become far more RB-centric under fantastic offensive coordinator Liam Coen, with Bucky Irving's success also a big part of that, but there's still been plenty of room for Mayfield to put up fantasy numbers, including 24.3 points Week 8 against Atlanta and 18.7 points this past Sunday at the Giants. He'll face another vulnerable defense this week, taking on a Panthers team that's allowed the sixth most fantasy points per game to QBs and the second most EPA per dropback (0.13). Only the Texans, Jaguars and Ravens have allowed more passing TDs.

Other Good Matchups: Jalen Hurts (at BAL), Patrick Mahomes (vs. LV), C.J. Stroud (at JAX), Justin Herbert (at ATL), Anthony Richardson (at NE), Russell Wilson (at CIN), Cooper Rush (vs. NYG), Bryce Young (vs. TB)

Running Backs 👍

Bucky Irving (at CAR) — 54% started

Start Over — D'Andre Swift

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Baker Mayfield (at CAR) — 53% started

Start Over — Jordan Love (vs. MIA), Jared Goff (vs. CHI), Tua Tagovailoa (at GB)

Other Good Matchups: Jalen Hurts (at BAL), Patrick Mahomes (vs. LV), C.J. Stroud (at JAX), Justin Herbert (at ATL), Anthony Richardson (at NE), Russell Wilson (at CIN), Cooper Rush (vs. NYG), Bryce Young (vs. TB)

Running Backs 👍

Bucky Irving (at CAR) — 54% started

Start Over — D'Andre Swift (at DET), Rachaad White (at CAR), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. IND)

The Buccaneers tried to get Sean Tucker more involved last week but then gave him just one more snap after a fumble early in the second quarter, ultimately turning to Irving for 10 of the next 15 RB touches and 58 percent of snaps until Rachaad White closed out the game with six straight carries at the very end (when Tampa Bay was up by 23 points). While White will remain involved, the initial returns suggest Irving may have a larger role after the Week 11 bye, which is especially good news for fantasy managers with the Bucs having such a soft schedule to close out the season. The Panthers are allowing the most PPR points per game to running backs, and Irving will get to face them not only this week but also for Fantasy Super Bowls in Week 17.

Rico Dowdle (vs. NYG) — 34% started

Start Over — Javonte Williams (vs. CLE), Najee Harris (at CIN), Tyrone Tracy (at DAL)

The Giants got skewered by Irving last week and are allowing a league-high 5.1 YPC on designed run plays, not to mention mounting concern about effort level and buy-in from players amidst a six-game losing streak. The Cowboys are favored by 3.5 points for the Thanksgiving matchup, with Dowdle coming off a Week 12 contest in which he handled his second-largest snap share (64 percent) of the season and took 22 of the 26 RB touches. Similar workload dominance against the last-place Giants could lead to a huge fantasy score, making Dowdle a rock-solid RB2 even though there are no byes this week.

Other Good Matchups: Aaron Jones (vs. ARZ), Tyrone Tracy (at DAL), Rachaad White (at CAR), J.K. Dobbins / Gus Edwards (at ATL)

Wide Receivers 👍

Ladd McConkey (at ATL) — 57% started

Start Over — Jayden Reed (vs. MIA), Deebo Samuel (at BUF), Tank Dell (at JAX)

McConkey is already approaching every-week-starter territory, boasting a 71 percent catch rate that's typical of a slot receiver even though he handles downfield routes and targets (10.4 aDOT, 14.2 yards per catch) at the same rate as a lot of perimeter wideouts. He also played a season-high-tying 86 percent of snaps in Sunday's loss to Baltimore, including nine of the 18 snaps that weren't in 11 personnel. McConkey now faces a vulnerable defense in a dome, with Atlanta allowing the fourth most PPR points to wide receivers and possibly still having multiple injury concerns at CB after a bye week (Dee Alford, Mike Hughes and Antonio Hamilton all missed Week 11, with Kevin King then exiting early for concussion protocol).

Xavier Worthy (vs. LV) — 24% started

Start Over — Michael Pittman (at NE), Christian Watson (vs. MIA), Quentin Johnston (at ATL)

Worthy has been one of the most frustrating players in the league this season, repeatedly missing out on big plays or touchdowns because of his own mistakes or misfires by Patrick Mahomes. It's never once cost the rookie playing time, however, and he continues to get high-value targets on deep balls and near the end zone, as well as the occasional carry (11 in 11 games). Worthy doesn't seem to have too much trouble getting open, which should be the case again versus a struggling Raiders defense that played last week's game without two of its top three cornerbacks. There's enough upside here to start Worthy over other WR4 types in deep leagues.

Other Good Matchups: A.J. Brown (at BAL), Puka Nacua & Cooper Kupp (at NO), CeeDee Lamb (vs. NYG), Nico Collins & Tank Dell (at JAX), Mike Evans (at CAR), DeAndre Hopkins & Xavier Worthy (vs. LVR), Devaughn Vele (vs. CLE), Joshua Palmer (at ATL), Parker Washington (vs. HOU)

Tight Ends 👍

Dallas Goedert (at BAL) — 52% started

Start Over — Sam LaPorta (vs. CHI), Will Dissly (at ATL)

The Ravens have been eaten up by wide receivers more so than tight ends, but their struggles in the defensive backfield may end up benefiting Goedert, who will again be the clear second option in Philadelphia's passing game if DeVonta Smith misses another week with a hamstring injury. Baltimore's combination of strong run defense and poor pass defense could even encourage the Eagles to put more of the burden on Jalen Hurts' right arm this week, despite the recent success they've had with one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league. Be it due to gameplan or negative script, there are a couple different paths for Goedert to get more volume than usual.

Other Good Matchups: Travis Kelce (vs. LV), Taysom Hill (vs. LAR), Hunter Henry (vs. IND), Dalton Schultz (at JAX), Pat Freiermuth (at CIN),

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Tua Tagovailoa (at GB) — 36% started

Start Instead — Jared Goff (vs. CHI), Justin Herbert (at ATL), Bo Nix (vs. CLE), Anthony Richardson (at NE)

The Dolphins have scored at least 23 points and completed at least 71 percent of pass attempts in five straight games since Tagovailoa returned from IR, but it wasn't until the past two weeks that it resulted in more than 17.5 fantasy points for the QB. That's partially because he offers nothing in terms of rushing stats, which means he needs elite passing efficiency to match the fantasy outputs other QBs can produce when they don't even play especially well. And we can't count on said efficiency being there this week, with the Dolphins playing on the road in Green Bay on Thursday against a defense that's allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points to QBs while ranking third in EPA/dropback (-0.13). It doesn't help that the forecast for Thursday night in Green Bay calls for temperatures in the 20s and possible snow.

Other Tough Matchups: Kyler Murray (at MIN), Joe Burrow (vs. PIT), Jordan Love (vs. MIA), Tua Tagovailoa (at GB), Caleb Williams (at DET), Aidan O'Connell (at KC)

Running Backs 👎

D'Andre Swift (at DET) — 55% started

Start Instead — Tony Pollard (at WAS), Tyrone Tracy (at DAL), Bucky Irving (at CAR)

While still the clear lead back in terms of touch volume, Swift took 54 and 53 percent of snaps in his first two games with new playcaller Thomas Brown, yielding not only goal-line carries but also a lot of passing-down snaps to backup Roschon Johnson. Swift finished both games with 16 touches, after averaging 20.7 in his final six games under Shane Waldron. The reduced role spelled trouble last week in a comeback effort against Minnesota, and Swift will now have to play as an 10-point underdog versus a Lions defense that's continued to defend the run well even without DE Aidan Hutchinson (leg) and LB Alex Anzalone (arm). The last three lead backs to face Detroit (Joe Mixon, Travis Etienne, Jonathan Taylor) finished with 46 or fewer rushing yards and 3.2 YPC or worse.

Nick Chubb (at DEN) — 38% started

Start Instead — Rico Dowdle (vs. NYG), Jaylen Warren (at CIN), Najee Harris (at CIN)

The Broncos have allowed a ton of pass-catching production to RBs but remain one of the stingier teams against the run, ranking fifth in YPC allowed (3.7), eighth in EPA/carry (-0.17) and eighth in opponent success rate on carries (36 percent). The matchup spells trouble for Chubb, who scored two TDs in Thursday's win over Pittsburgh but is still liable to disappear from the offense when Cleveland falls behind. He has just three catches for seven yards in five games this year, and there's extra risk of negative game script (a.k.a. more Jerome Ford snaps) with the Broncos favored by 5.5 points for Monday's game.

Other Tough Matchups: Saquon Barkley (at BAL), Derrick Henry (vs. PHI), Chase Brown (vs. PIT), James Conner (at MIN), Ameer Abdullah (at KC), Travis Etienne / Tank Bigsby (vs. HOU)

Wide Receivers 👎

Zay Flowers (vs. PHI) — 78% started

Start Instead — Marvin Harrison (at MIN), DJ Moore (at DET), Malik Nabers (at DAL)

The Eagles have arguably the best secondary in the league and almost certainly the deepest group of cornerbacks, with Isaiah Rodgers and Kelee Ringo being solid replacements if Darius Slay can't clear concussion protocol by Sunday. Philadelphia's defense has been stifling in general since a Week 5 bye, allowing no more than 290 yards or 20 points in seven consecutive games. The only WRs to score double-digit PPR points against the Eagles since their bye have been Ja'Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua — Nos. 1, 2 and 13 at the position for PPR points per game this season. Flowers is having a nice year in his own right, but he's 24th among WRs in PPR points, making him bench-able in shallow leagues or for teams that are stacked at the position.

Jerry Jeudy (at DEN) — 27% started

Start Instead — Brian Thomas (vs. HOU), Keenan Allen (at DET), Khalil Shakir (vs. SF)

Jeudy is Cleveland's best receiver and has performed as such the past two weeks, but we'll now see the downside of his pseudo-alpha status in a potential shadow matchup with former teammate Patrick Surtain, who ranks top five among all cornerbacks in target rate and fantasy points allowed per route (despite shadowing No. 1 receivers in a lot of games). Surtain is simply a much better player than Jeudy, and the two will square off a bunch even if the Broncos decided not to shadow.

Other Tough Matchups: DK Metcalf & Jaxon-Smith Njigba (at NYJ), Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle (at GB), Deebo Samuel & Jauan Jennings (at BUF), Jerry Jeudy (at DEN), Jayden Reed (vs. MIA), Rashod Bateman (vs. PHI)

Tight Ends 👎

David Njoku (at DEN) — 59% started

Start Instead — T.J. Hockenson (vs. ARZ), Jonnu Smith (at GB), Dallas Goedert (at BAL)

Njoku is always capable of a huge volume game when playing with a pocket passer like Jameis Winston or Joe Flacco, but the efficiency outlook takes a hit this week for a road game against Denver's solid defense. Brock Bowers and Travis Kelce are the only tight ends that have scored double-digit PPR points versus the Broncos, who rank third in YPT (5.7) and sixth in catch rate (68.5 percent) on passes to TEs.