Exploiting the Matchups: NFL Week 5 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

• Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NYG) — 76% started

Start Over —  Lamar Jackson (at PIT), Justin Fields (at WAS), Anthony Richardson (vs. TEN)

The Giants are on a short week after losing by 21 to Seattle on Monday, now heading to Miami for a road game against a likely playoff team that has an extra home-field advantage early in the season. With kickoff temperature expected to be in the mid-to-high 80s, Miami will enjoy the shady side of the stadium while the Giants are forced to deal with the sunshine (if it's not cloudy/rainy, which it admittedly might be).

Looking beyond the team level, Tagovailoa shouldn't mind facing a defense with the second-highest blitz rate in the league (49.6 percent) given that he's completed 68.2 percent of his throws for 7.9 YPA and a 4:0 TD:INT against blitzes this season. The numbers were arguably even better last year — 65.3 percent for 9.6 YPA and 7:1 TD:INT — and it's not like the Giants have found any success getting to QBs with the aggressive approach. Only the Bears have fewer sacks than New York's four this season and only eight teams have a lower overall pressure rate (20.8%).

• Other Good Matchups: Joe Burrow (at ARZ), Sam Howell (vs. CHI), Jordan Love (at LV),  Zach Wilson (at DEN)

Running Backs 👍

• Breece Hall (at DEN) — 60% started

Start Over — Alexander Mattison (vs. KC), Najee Harris (vs. BAL), Dameon Pierce (at ATL)

If you drafted Hall in a deep league, you've probably had to start him each week even though you knew he wouldn't reach 15 touches and wasn't likely to make many trips to the red zone. It was a pure talent play, with volume/role and team context both decisively working against him. Your patience will now be rewarded, with Robert Saleh declaring Wednesday that he won't have Hall on a "pitch count" anymore... just in time to face a Denver defense that ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to RBs, rushing yards allowed and points allowed, among other things. 

The Broncos shut down Josh Jacobs in Week 1 but then gave up more than 22 PPR points to four different RBs the past three weeks. The numbers are absolutely brutal even if we remove the yards and points De'Von Achane racked up Week 3 in garbage time. Plus, we get a revenge narrative with Hall returning to the scene of the crime. Put him in your lineup if he's been on the bench, and keep him there if you were forced to start him the past few weeks.

• Gus Edwards (at PIT) — 27% started

Start Over — Miles Sanders (at DET), Jaleel McLaughlin (vs. NYJ)

Christian McCaffrey, Jerome Ford, Josh Jacobs and Dameon Pierce all had season highs for rushing yards when they faced the Steelers, and Edwards might be next after getting 17 touches and 71 percent of snaps in last week's 28-3 win over the Browns. His share of the backfield work was even larger before the game got out of hand, and his disappointing line from the week before (11-51-0 vs. IND) was partially a product of exiting early due to a concussion. The smart money has Edwards losing some of his snap share from last week yet still ending up with more production. The Steelers rank 29th in both rushing yards allowed (594) and yards per carry (4.7), with every lead back they've faced so far besting his season marks in both those categories.

• Other Good Matchups: David Montgomery & Jahmyr Gibbs (vs. CAR), Joe Mixon (at ARZ), Aaron Jones (at LV), Isiah Pacheco (at MIN), Brian Robinson (vs. CHI)

Wide Receivers 👍

• Calvin Ridley (at BUF - London) — 84% started

Start Over — Deebo Samuel (vs. DAL), Garrett Wilson (at DEN), DJ Moore (at WAS)

Averaging only 52.7 yards and 7.0 targets, Ridley will now face a name-brand defense that's given up the eighth fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. That doesn't sound great, but the outlook brightens when we consider that the Bills just lost top corner Tre'Davious White to an Achilles tear and have their other perimeter starter (Christian Benford) dealing with a shoulder injury. On top of that, Ridley and Co. have a major travel advantage with the Bills crossing the Atlantic Ocean to participate in the Jaguars' second straight London game. The Bills are on upset watch this week, while Ridley is on breakout watch.

• Romeo Doubs — 42% started

Start Over — Christian Watson (at LV), Gabe Davis (vs. JAX) - PPR, Drake London (vs. HOU)

Does anyone else get Chase Claypool vibes from Christian Watson? Not in terms of effort or personality; I'm talking about the "big" rookie year that was based on a month-long TD binge and splash plays rather than high-level performance from snap to snap. While unlikely to 'bust' as hard as Claypool did, Watson isn't automatically the No. 1 receiver in Green Bay, where Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs both have been above 20 percent target share in his absence. Watson did score a TD in his season debut last week, but even with more playing time on the way I'm not so sure he's the No. 1 here.

I'm not sure it's Doubs, either, to be fair. There might just not be a true No. 1, or it might end up being Reed eventually. For this week, Doubs is the guy to start, coming off consecutive games with at least a dozen targets and now facing a Raiders defense that likely will be without top corner Nate Hobbs (ankle) for a second straight week.

• Other Good Matchups: Ja'Marr Chase (at ARZ), Terry McLaurin & Jahan Dotson (vs. CHI), Michael Pittman & Josh Downs (vs. TEN), Rashee Rice (at MIN)

Tight Ends 👍

• Dallas Goedert — 75% started

Start Over — Evan Engram (at BUF), Kyle Pitts (vs. HOU)

Impatience is understandable, but Goedert is still one of the better real-life TEs and still has the same every-down role that led to fantasy success the past two seasons. He'll get back to his accustomed range of five-to-six targets per week soon enough, and his 2.2 YAC average also figures to rebound toward established standards (7.6 in 2022, 5.9 for his career). In terms of when that happens... I think the answer is this week against a young Rams defense that's given up 209 yards and two TD on 25 targets (8.4 YPT) to tight ends. 

• Other Good Matchups: Travis Kelce (at MIN), Tyler Conklin (at DEN), Logan Thomas (vs. CHI)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

• Jared Goff (vs. CAR) — 41% started

Start Instead — C.J. Stroud (at ATL), Joe Burrow (at ARZ), Matthew Stafford (vs. PHI)

The Panthers don't have an intimidating defense, but it has been better against the pass than the run, ranking 14th in NY/A while recording as many INTs (four) as TD passes allowed.  Meanwhile, only four teams have allowed more yards per carry (4.7) and only five have given up more rushing yards (545), which looks especially problematic against a Detroit offense that has either the lowest or second-lowest PROE (Pass Rate Over Expectation) depending on what numbers you use.

*PROE compares a team's actual pass rate to its "expected pass rate" based on down/distance/score (putting a percentage on each snap and then adding everything up). The Lions have been below the baseline every week this season, despite Goff's mostly clean play and the success of WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (abdomen) and TE Sam LaPorta. Also note that St. Brown didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday, potentially weakening Detroit's passing game even if Jameson Williams is ready to contribute.

• Other Bad Matchups: Dak Prescott (at SF), Brock Purdy (vs. DAL), Kenny Pickett (vs. BAL)

Running Backs 👎

• Miles Sanders (at DET) — 57% started

Start Instead — Khalil Herbert (at WAS), Jonathan Taylor (vs. TEN)

This should change some by the end of the week, but I was genuinely surprised Thursday to see Sanders being started in over half of Yahoo lineups. Chuba Hubbard actually got a few more snaps than Sanders last week, and while Yard Per Carry is neither the stickiest stat nor the most useful, it doesn't feel great to start a guy averaging 2.9 YPC (eighth worst among qualified rushers) against a defense that's allowed 3.0 (second best). That's easy enough to overlook when a RB is getting 50 snaps and 20 touches per week; not so much when he's ceding 30-to-50 percent of the work to his backup and seems to be flirting with losing the starting job.

• Zack Moss (vs. TEN) — 33% started

Start Instead — Gus Edwards (at PIT), Jaleel McLaughlin (vs. NYJ)

Jonathan Taylor's presumed return will be enough to scare most people away, including me. For those hesitant to remove a guy coming off three straight games with at least 18 carries for 70 yards, consider that Moss faces a second major challenge this week in the form of a matchup with Tennessee. After leading the league in run defense last year, the Titans are first in YPC (2.9) and fourth in rushing yards allowed (280), with 2022 UDFA Jack Gibbens and free-agent addition Azeez Al-Shaair combining for 64 tackles while solidifying the second level behind a standout defensive line. In other words, Moss isn't likely to do much this Sunday even if Taylor is eased in with something like 10-to-15 touches.

• Other Bad Matchups: Kyren Williams (vs. PHI), Najee Harris (vs. BAL), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. NO), 

Wide Receivers 👎

• Deebo Samuel (vs. DAL) — 79% started

Start Instead — DeAndre Hopkins (at IND), Christian Kirk (at BUF), Nico Collins (at ATL)

Samuel was able to take three carries and play nearly 90 percent of snaps last week, but he wasn't targeted even once against a weak Cardinals defense despite throwing up 6-129-1 the week before. While I'd be shocked if one of the league's toughest players doesn't fight through his rib and knee injuries again in a prime NFC matchup, multiple reports have already suggested Samuel won't be the best version of himself. That's a problem against bad teams, as we saw last week, and it's certainly a problem against a top-five defense that still has one of the league's better secondaries after losing Trevon Diggs to a season-ending injury.

• Courtland Sutton (vs. NYJ) — 32% started

Start Instead — Jakobi Meyers (vs. GB), George Pickens (vs. BAL), Michael Thomas (at NE), Jahan Dotson (vs. CHI)

Sutton has scored in three of four games and put up 5-66-0 in the other, but he's not actually much ahead of last season in terms of yards per game (54) or targets per game (7.0). If not for a favorable schedule to start the year -- LV, WAS, MIA, CHI -- he might not be ahead of where he was last year at all. And now he'll face a Jets defense that has some of the best CBs in the league and has allowed the third fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. It should be a low-scoring game, and the Broncos are more likely to find success moving the ball via the middle of the field rather than throwing to the edges.

• Other Bad Matchups:  Jerry Jeudy (vs. NYJ), K.J. Osborn (vs. KC)

Tight Ends 👎

• Tyler Higbee (vs. PHI) — 30% started

Start Instead — Zach Ertz (vs. CIN), Dalton Kincaid (vs. JAX)

This isn't necessarily a terrible matchup, but it's also not as favorable as one might think upon seeing that the Eagles have allowed the third most fantasy points to TEs and now face one who was targeted 11 times last week. Cooper Kupp's impending return adds to the competition for Matthew Stafford's attention in a massive way, and Higbee likely will do more pass-blocking than usual in a matchup with one of the best defensive lines in the league. PFF has charted Higbee blocking on only 7.8 percent of his pass snaps this year, down from 17.3 percent last season, but he should sway back to double digits this week as the Rams prepare to face the Eagles with their starting left tackle (Alaric Jackson) potentially out due to a hamstring injury.

• Other Bad Matchups: Kyle Pitts (vs. HOU), Jake Ferguson (at SF)

Week 3 Streaming Picks

A reminder here: we're picking the best options available in each range. A guy can have a tough matchup this week and still be one of the better options at his position among guys rostered in less than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues. Talent and role matter, too... more so than matchups for the most part.

For Shallow Leagues (35-59 percent rostered)

QB Russell Wilson (vs. NYJ)

RB Jaleel McLaughlin (vs. NYJ)

RB Jaylen Warren (vs. BAL)

WR Brandin Cooks (at SF)

WR Tyler Boyd (at ARI)

TE Zach Ertz (vs. CIN)

K Riley Patterson (vs. CAR)

D/ST Broncos (vs. NYJ)

For Medium-depth Leagues (10-34 percent rostered)

QB Sam Howell (vs. CHI)

QB Joshua Dobbs (vs. CIN)

RB Matt Breida (at MIA) - if Saquon Barkley (ankle) is out again)

RB Chuba Hubbard (vs. DET)

RB Latavius Murray (vs. JAX)

WR Zay Jones (at BUF) - if returns from knee injury

WR Robert Woods (at ATL)

TE Luke Musgrave (at LV) - if he clears concussion protocol

K Matt Gay (vs. TEN)

D/ST Texans (at ATL)

For Deep Leagues (0-9 percent rostered)

QB Zach Wilson (at DEN)

RB Ronnie Rivers (vs. PHI)

WR Josh Downs (vs. TEN)

WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (at IND)

TE Tyler Conklin (at DEN)

K Ka'imi Fairbairn (at ATL)

D/ST Atlanta Falcons (vs. HOU)