This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
The game I like best this week is the 49ers getting 9.5 points at the Saints. Everyone has been high on the Saints since last week's pasting of Tampa Bay and they've won five in a row. I have to admit, San Francisco has been an enigma this season looking like an elite team at times and then also winning easily at the Jets, Giants, Patriots and home against the Rams. The 49ers have lost their last two games by 10 and 17 points so this line doesn't make sense to me. I like that they're getting Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne back and while Jimmy Garoppolo isn't back, that's a good thing at this point.
In staff picks this week, I was the only staffer to back Brady and the Buccaneers -4.5 points. I think people are down on Tampa after last week but maybe they have kryptonite against the Saints (two losses to them) and the only other loss was a one-point loss to the mediocre Bears.
Anytime I see the Patriots playing the Ravens it invokes memories of 2007 when the undefeated Patriots went to Baltimore with an 11-0 record on Monday Night Football. Ray Lewis almost killed Rex Ryan when he called timeout on 4th and short and the defense knew it was the Brady sneak. Different play call by the Patriots after that and long story short, Brady throws a game-winning touchdown and they remain undefeated. Fast forward to this season, there's not much in the passing game for either team this season. I suspect there will be a lot of clock-draining running plays by both teams and this started lower than the 43.5 it's currently at. I like the under here. I also like having juice in the night game without forcing anything.
I also like the Bills/Cardinals under 56.5. The Cardinals defense has had rest and the Bills defense has been better over recent weeks. Slight wager here though.
Player Props
My favorite category and I'm pretty sure I've done decently this season. Let's take a look:
Leonard Fournette OVER 38.5 Rushing yards - This is my favorite prop of the week. The game flow last week led to Leonard getting only one carry. However, the Bucs are favored this week and before last week's goose egg Fournette went 15-52 and 11-50 in his previous two games. Carolina is one of the worst teams in the league against the run.
Hunter Henry OVER 42.5 Receiving yards - The receiving yards for the last five games read like this: 33, 33, 23, 23, and 39 yards so this line makes zero sense. However, Henry has averaged six targets per game over that span and, using my Euclid-like math skills, that suggest he only needs 7.16 yards per catch to win this. I've been waiting for a big game from him and think this is the spot. I don't mind wagering a lesser amount on his anytime touchdown odds, either (+225).
John Brown OVER 47.5 Receiving yards - We hit nicely with Brown last week who's been taking it easy in practice this week likely as a precaution with his recent injury. This seems like a low number and given Patrick Peterson will likely be on Stefon Diggs, Brown should be a popular target of Josh Allen.
Derek Carr OVER 264.5 Passing yards - This seems like a high number given the last two games he's had a total of 276 passing yards. However, one of those was in a weather-affected game in Cleveland and in the previous five games, he hit the over in four of them. It doesn't hurt to be coming off the bye week and Denver isn't a great pass defense.
Dalvin Cook UNDER 33.5 Rushing yards (+500) - DraftKings offers these "creative" bets once in a while and I'll take the bait here, albeit for a minimal amount. Cook could get injured here plus the Bears defense should sell out to stop the run. If or when the receiving props come out on this game, I would blindly bet the over for Adam Thielen. Plus, taking either of these wagers gives you adds some weight to watching this game Monday night.
Touchdowns
Evan Engram +240 - He only has one touchdown this season but that may have kept this prop up to the point it's at. The Eagles are not good against the tight end position and Engram had eight touches the first two times these teams hooked up.
Duke Johnson -106 - I don't see David Johnson playing in this game leaving Duke to handle the workload for the Texans. He should be a three-down back due to his pass-catching abilities putting him in play even on passing downs in the red zone. I normally don't like laying odds (although this is minimal) but new running back starters who were backups have had a lot of success this season.
Danny Amendola +200 - Here's the guy who probably benefits the most from the absence of Kenny Golladay. He hasn't found pay dirt yet this season but got a whopping 10 targets last week plus a rushing attempt. Amendola runs those "quick-hitter" routes which are effective to score touchdowns inside of the 5-yard line.
Chris Godwin +150, Antonio Brown +150 - I'm tempted to add Mike Evans (+100) here and wouldn't argue if you wanted to take all three. The odds here have the Bucs at 27.5 total team points for the game and I think this is a good bounce-back spot for them. Let's say Tampa scores four touchdowns in this one, at worst it seems like at least two would be passing touchdowns (the odds on Brady passing touchdowns reflect that). Like we've done the last two weeks with J.K. Dobbins/Gus Edwards, we only need one here to hit to make a profit. It would be gravy if both come through.
