DraftKings NFL Week 9: Top Picks and Lineup Strategy

Sunday's Week 9 slate includes 11 games and features more high point totals than we're used to seeing. Kansas City-Buffalo is the marquee matchup but Chicago-Cincinnati and Indianapolis-Pittsburgh also have 50-point totals. San Francisco-New York isn't far behind and features some of the strongest DFS options. Injuries to starting running backs have opened up a plethora of cheap value at the position. Rostering two will be the popular lineup construction. 

In this breakdown, I've highlighted the top options for cash games and included some of my favorite ideas for GPPs. As usual, leverage and correlation are paramount to winning large-field tournaments and important to prioritize when building lineups. For cash games, play the best chalk and, when in doubt, follow ownership. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Tyrone Tracy vs. SF ($5,100)

It was sad to see Cam Skattebo suffer that horrible injury last week but it opens the door for Tracy to be the starter again, and now he only has Devin Singletary to compete with for touches. His salary is too cheap for that role with Giants in a favorable home matchup against the decimated 49ers defense. If you aren't sold or would rather look elsewhere, that's fine, as there's plenty of cheap value at the position this week. Jaylen Warren ($5,500) will be popular in the high-totaled matchup against the Colts; TreVeyon Henderson ($4,900) can also be considered with Rhamondre Stevenson out; and the same goes for Kareem Hunt ($4,700) with Pacheco ruled out and Kyle Monangai ($4,600) with D'Andre Swift ruled out.

• WR Jauan Jennings at NYG ($4,300)

As someone who heavily invested in Jennings this summer, it's been a frustrating season to say the least. Now healthy and priced cheaper than ever, he projects among the best cheap value at WR. Ricky Pearsall is expected to be out again and the Giants are likely to be without their top two CBs. Jennings has caught four passes on seven targets in back-to-back games and had a would-be 50-yard touchdown go off his fingertips last week. Sunday's matchup is a prime spot for his first good game of the year. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Patrick Mahomes at BUF ($3,100)

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QB Jaxson Dart vs. SF ($5,200)

RB Christian McCaffrey at NYG ($8,800)

RB Kyren Williams vs. NO ($6,800)

RB Kimani Vidal at TEN ($6,300)

RB Jaylen Warren vs. IND ($5,500)

RB Tyrone Tracy vs. SF ($5,100)

RB TreVeyon Henderson vs. ATL ($4,900)

RB Kareem Hunt at BUF ($4,700)

RB Kyle Monangai at CIN ($4,600)

WR Puka Nacua vs. NO ($8,500)

WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. CHI ($8,400)

WR Rashee Rice at BUF ($7,600)

WR Brian Thomas at LV ($6,200)

WR Ladd McConkey at TEN ($6,000)

WR DK Metcalf vs IND ($5,500)

WR Jauan Jennings at NYG ($4,300)

WR Olamide Zaccheaus at CIN ($3,300)

TE Tyler Warren at PIT ($5,500)

TE Brock Bowers vs. JAX ($5,000)

TE George Kittle at NYG ($4,800)

TE Sam LaPorta vs. MIN ($4,300)

TE Theo Johnson vs. SF ($3,500)

D/ST Los Angeles Rams vs. NO ($3,900)

D/ST Los Angeles Chargers at TEN ($3,800)

D/ST Denver Broncos at HOU ($3,200)

D/ST Houston Texans vs. DEN ($2,900)

D/ST Atlanta Falcons at NE ($2,500)

D/ST New York Giants vs. SF ($3,400)

Passing-Game Stacks

Chicago Bears (26.75) at Cincinnati Bengals (24.25)

Bears

It doesn't get much better than a matchup against Cincinnati, who've allowed the most points in the league and third-most yards per play. We just saw the previously winless Jets, arguably the worst offense and without Garrett Wilson, hang 39 points and 502 yards on this Bengals defense. It looks like a perfect spot for the struggling Caleb Williams ($5,700) to silence some doubters. Luther Burden (concussion) looks set to miss out, which makes it more palatable to roster Rome Odunze ($6,600), DJ Moore ($5,200) or Olamide Zaccheaus ($3,300). Moore will be the least popular due to his lack of production and decreased role. Odunze won't be overly popular either, and he's coming off his best game since Week 2 after catching seven of 10 targets for 114 yards against Baltimore last week. Zaccheaus also had seven catches against the Ravens and will be relatively popular considering how cheap he is. If you'd rather target the running game, it looks just as appealing after Cincy gave up 254 yards on the ground to the Jets. They haven't stopped anyone all season and Kyle Monangai ($4,600) is priced at a bargain with D'Andre Swift ruled out.

Bengals

Joe Flacco $5,600) returned to practice Thursday after missing Wednesday's session due a sprained AC joint. I want to make it clear that I'll have interest in the Cincinnati side of this game only if Flacco starts because backup Jake Browning has looked incompetent and can't be trusted. To say that Ja'Marr Chase ($8,400) has excelled with Flacco under center would be an understatement. He has recorded 12, 16 and 10 catches on a whopping 54 targets in the last three games, and the Bears are still missing their best cornerback in Jaylon Johnson. Chase will be chalky, and rightfully so, but Tee Higgins ($5,900) will be an afterthought and not expected to carry much ownership, and that makes him a good leverage play in large-field GPPs. Chase Brown ($5,900) loses too many snaps to Samaje Perine for my liking and I'd rather target the passing-game anyway.

•  Favorite Bears Stack: QB Williams + WR Chase + WR Odunze or WR Zaccheaus
• Favorite Bengals Stack: QB Flacco + WR Chase + RB Swift and/or WR Zaccheaus

Indianapolis Colts (26.75) at Pittsburgh Steelers (23.75)

Colts

The Indianapolis offense has been historically great through eight weeks, as their 37.7 percent DVOA would rank fourth all time. Sunday's matchup against Pittsburgh is a prime opportunity to keep it going as the Steelers defense has been surprisingly bad this season. They've allowed 300+ passing yards to Jordan Love, Joe Flacco and Carson Wentz in three of the last four weeks. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones ($6,200) is playing the best football of life, scoring at least 22 DraftKings points in five of eight games. Michael Pittman ($5,900) has a touchdown catch in six of eight and coming off his best two games of the year. Standout rookie Tyler Warren ($5,500) is versatile and elite. What else is there to say about Jonathan Taylor ($9,800)? The NFL's best RB has four three-touchdown games in his last six. Another nice thing about these Colts for tournaments is that none of them will be that popular. Taylor's salary is sky high and Warren is the most expensive at a position people like to punt. 

Steelers

The Colts, partly due to injuries, have one of the league's worst secondaries. Indy's defense has allowed 300+ passing yards to Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett and Matthew Stafford in three of the last five. Aaron Rodgers ($5,800) has been playing well, and the likely script sets up nicely for the passing game with the Steelers as home underdogs. The salaries on their key pieces are also favorable. Jaylen Warren ($5,500) projects among the top values at RB and will be popular as a result. DK Metcalf ($5,500) has a touchdown in four of his last five and is modestly priced for a No. 1 WR with his ceiling potential. Pittsburgh uses four TEs, making them essentially irrelevant on 11-game DFS slates. 

• Favorite Colts Stack: QB Jones + RB Warren or WR Metcalf + TE Warren
• Favorite Steelers Stack: QB Rodgers + RB Taylor and/or TE Warren + WR Metcalf

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + WR Rashee Rice +/- WR Khalil Shakir or TE Dalton Kincaid

QB Patrick Mahomes + WR Rashee Rice 

QB Justin Herbert + WR Ladd McConkey +/- WR Elic Ayomanor or WR Chimere Dike

QB Drake Maye + WR Stefon Diggs

QB Trevor Lawrence + WR Brian Thomas or WR Dyami Brown + TE Brock Bowers

QB Jaxson Dart + RB Christian McCaffrey + WR Wan'Dale Robinson or TE Theo Johnson

QB Jaxson Dart + WR Wan'Dale Robinson/TE Theo Johnson + WR Jauan Jennings/TE George Kittle

QB Mac Jones + RB Tyrone Tracy + WR Jauan Jennings and/or TE George Kittle

High-Priced Heroes

• RB Christian McCaffrey at NYG ($8,800)

After flopping last week against the stout Texans defense, Sunday's matchup against the porous Giants should be the perfect bounce-back spot. Their defense now ranks dead last in yards per carry allowed after Saquon Barkley and the Eagles went off for 276 yards on the ground a week ago. Add to that McCaffrey's prowess in the passing game and you have a safe floor with high ceiling potential.

• WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. CHI ($8,400)

Chase continues to put up otherworldly numbers since Joe Flacco took over for Jake Browning, drawing an incredible 42 targets over his last two games, catching 18. He also has one of the better matchups against a Bears defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to No. 1 WRs and who remain without their best CB. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Puka Nacua ($8,500); WR Rashee Rice ($7,600)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Bijan Robinson at NE ($8,700)

I was left with a very bad taste in my mouth last week after making every lineup with Robinson while touting him in this article (sorry about that). He responded with by far his worst game of the season as Kirk Cousins and the Falcons laid an egg against the hopeless Dolphins. That isn't the main reason I'll be fading him this Sunday though. That has more to do with the Patriots run defense, which has been elite, as they've allowed just 76 rushing yards per game. No RB has a had a decent game against them all season and McCaffrey looks much better for the same price. I'd also rather save $700 and move down to Gibbs or spend all the way up for Taylor. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• QB Jaxson Dart vs. SF ($5,200)

$5,200 is simply too cheap for a dual-threat QB like Dart in a great matchup against the battered and bruised 49ers defense. They have no pass rush and are missing their best LB, among others. We just saw C.J. Stroud have his best game of the season against them and do it without Nico Collins. With Skattebo out, Dart will have to do even more on his own. He's proven capable thus far and it's been exciting to watch. From a DFS standpoint, he's topped 18 DraftKings points in every start and has a rushing touchdown in each of his last three. He's essentially a lock for cash-games, in my opinion. 

Honorable Mention: RB TreVeyon Henderson ($4,900); RB Kyle Monangai ($4,600)

The Bargain Bin

QB Caleb Williams at CIN ($5,700)

QB Trevor Lawrence at LV ($5,400)

QB Jaxson Dart vs. SF ($5,200)

QB Mac Jones at NYG ($5,000)

RB Jaylen Warren vs. IND ($5,500)

RB Tyrone Tracy vs. SF ($5,100)

RB TreVeyon Henderson vs. ATL ($4,900)

RB Kareem Hunt at BUF ($4,700)

RB Kyle Monangai at CIN ($4,600)

WR Jameson Williams vs. MIN ($4,800)

WR Jauan Jennings at NYG ($4,300)

WR Chimere Dike vs. LAC ($3,900)

WR Elic Ayomanor vs. LAC ($3,800)

WR Dyami Brown at LV ($3,800)

WR Olamide Zaccheaus at CIN ($3,300)

TE Hunter Henry vs. ATL ($3,700)

TE Theo Johnson vs. SF ($3,500)

TE Juwan Johnson at LAR ($3,200)

Injuries to Monitor 

• QB Joe Flacco vs. CHI

Flacco is listed as questionable as he deals with a sprained AC joint. His status is important to monitor as it relates to Ja'Marr Chase. If Flacco is ruled out and Jake Browning starts, I'd move Nacua and Rice ahead of Chase.

Weather

Nothing to worry about this week.