DraftKings NFL: Week 7 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 7 slate includes 10 games and only one has a total higher than 45 points. There's been lots of talk about scoring being down this season, but we haven't seen it this bad before as five of the 10 games have totals at 40 points or less. What it means for DFS is that few players are projecting well and there really aren't any "smash" spots like other slates had. Chargers-Chiefs is Sunday's marque matchup but the key players on both sides have been priced up, making it difficult to stack, though it will be popular regardless. Other than that we have a lot of backup QBs and starters who play like backups, which is part of the reason for all the low totals. The nice thing about slates like this is that you can take a few more chances due to the lack of opportunity cost. In other words, you can credibly get off some of the chalk without losing too much in floor/ceiling projection. Looking for that leverage should be a priority in GPPs and it's often easier to find on this type of slate that projects to be lower scoring. Good Luck. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Isiah Pacheco vs. LAC ($6,100)

Last week there was a plethora of strong value options at RB with upward of 10 players who looked good for cash games. This week is pretty much the opposite as not much stands out below $7K. Pacheco has established himself as the lead back in Kansas City and looks the part when you watch how hard he runs. The biggest selling point is that he's playing in the highest-totaled game for the team with the highest implied total. He's scored in three of his last four games and it was encouraging to see him catch six passes last week. Priced above Pacheco, Kenneth Walker ($7,000) has six TDs in his last four games the Seahawks have a fantastic matchup at home against Cardinals. We just saw Kyren Williams run all over them. 

• WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. WAS ($3,800)

Robinson stands out the best value WR priced below $4K. He's caught at least five balls in three straight and is coming off eight receptions against the Bills. Joshua Palmer ($4,800) looks to be a decent option as well. He's drawn at least seven targets in three straight and will continue to see usage in the absence of Mike Williams. I had to resist the urge to highlight Marquise Brown ($5,300) for a third consecutive week, but DraftKings refuses to price him up. He's drawn double-digit targets of four his last five while ranking among the league-leaders in air yards. The fact that most of those air yards have not been realized is the likely reason why his salary remains the same. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Lamar Jackson vs. DET ($7,600)

QB Geno Smith vs. ARI ($6,000)

QB Jordan Love at DEN ($5,800)

QB Daniel Jones vs. WAS ($5,600)

QB Sam Howell at NYG ($5,500)

QB Russell Wilson vs. GB ($5,400)

RB Josh Jacobs at CHI ($7,400)

RB Kenneth Walker vs. ARI ($7,000)

RB Isiah Pacheco vs. LAC ($6,100)

RB Jerome Ford at IND ($5,100)

WR Cooper Kupp vs. PIT ($9,500)

WR Tyler Lockett vs. ARI ($6,000)

WR Zay Flowers vs. DET ($5,700)

WR Christian Watson at DEN ($5,600)

WR Marquise Brown at SEA ($5,300)

WR Joshua Palmer at KC ($4,800)

WR Elijah Moore at IND ($4,200)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. WAS ($3,800)

TE Travis Kelce vs. LAC ($8,000)

TE Mark Andrews vs. DET ($5,700)

TE David Njoku at IND ($3,400)

TE Luke Musgrave at DEN ($3,300)

TE Michael Mayer at CHI ($2,700)

TE Trey McBride at SEA ($2,600)

D/ST New York Giants vs. WAS ($3,000)

D/ST Baltimore Ravens vs. DET ($2,500)

D/ST Kansas City Chiefs vs. LAC ($2,400)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Los Angeles Chargers (21.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (27)

CHARGERS

Chargers-Chiefs is the marquee game of the slate and the only one with a total higher than 45, which means it will be relatively popular. Both teams play fast and both rank top 5 in pass rate over expectation. There's a chance we could see a shootout if the Chargers offense improves. Justin Herbert ($8,000) has topped 20 fantasy points in every game and Austin Ekeler ($8,600) is back healthy after returning last week from a three-game layoff.  He struggled against a tough Cowboys defense Monday night, getting stopped at the one-yard line on two possessions. Keenan Allen ($8,600) has carried the offense in the absence of Ekeler and Mike Williams. His salary has skyrocketed as a result, which will keep his popularity down. Joshua Palmer ($4,800) projects among the top value options at WR. He's drawn at least seven targets in three consecutive games and clearly established himself as the No. 2 WR ahead of Quentin Johnston ($3,800). A lot was expected of Johnson after being drafted in the first round, but he's yet to be targeted more than three times in a game and is coming off a donut on Monday. I'd rather take a chance on Gerald Everett ($3,800) or Donald Parham ($3,000), preferably Everett as he draws more targets and is coming off his frist TD against the Cowboys. 

CHIEFS

The Chiefs are always tough to stack, in part because Patrick Mahomes ($8,300) and Travis Kelce ($8,000) are expensive, but also because they have so many WRs and none look like good options. Rashee Rice ($4,700) is probably the best of the bunch as he's caught at least four passes in three of his last four games. Kelce has looked back to his best, catching 19 of 20 targets for 191 yards and a TD over his last two games. Isiah Pacheco ($6,100) ranks among the top value at RB this week. He caught a season-high six passes last week and makes sense in any type of game-stack, Chiefs or Chargers. 

• Favorite Chargers Stack: QB Herbert + RB Pacheco + WR Allen/WR Palmer + TE Everett
• Favorite Chiefs Stack: QB Mahomes + RB Pacheco + WR Palmer + TE Kelce

Arizona Cardinals (18.5) at Seattle Seahawks (26)

CARDINALS

Arizona has been a great team to stack against. We just saw Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams put up big numbers against them last week and Ja'Marr Chase explode for 50-plus fantasy points the week before. This should be one of the faster-paced matchups on the slate, and the Seahawks have the second-highest implied total. I don't have too much interest in the Cardinals side but Marquise Brown ($5,300) continues to stand out as a strong value option with upside. He's drawn double-digit targets in four of his last five games and ranks top 5 in the league in air yards. Rondale Moore ($3,500) should continue to see a slight uptick in usage in the absence of James Conner. Moore has three carries and at least five targets in three of his last four. Trey McBride ($2,600) caught four of five targets last week while out-snapping Zach Ertz for the first time. 

SEAHAWKS

Geno Smith ($6,000) was under constant duress last week against the Bengals but still threw for 323 yards. Sunday's matchup is much softer as the Cardinals defense ranks dead last in pressure rate and QB knockdown rate. DK Metcalf ($6,800) cut a frustrated figure as he played through a rib injury to catch four of 10 targets for 69 yards. He isn't expected to be popular and that makes him one of the best leverage options on the slate in my opinion, given his ceiling. Tyler Lockett ($6,000) projects better and will garner more ownership as a result. Coach Pete Carrol talked up Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($3,900) this week. He's drawn at least five targets in four of five games and offers big-play ability. I took a chance on him last week and plan to do the same Sunday. While this looks like a great spot for the passing game, it's also a quite favorable matchup for Kenneth Walker ($7,000). Arizona's defense has conceded 4.5 yards per carry and nine rushing TDs through six games. If you'd rather roster Walker than Smith, that makes plenty of sense too. 

• Favorite Seahawks Stack 1: QB Smith + WR Metcalf + WR Brown + WR Smith-Njigba
• Favorite Seahawks Stack 2: QB Smith + WR Metcalf + WR Lockett + WR Moore or TE McBride

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + WR Stefon Diggs or WR Gabe Davis + RB Rhamondre Stevenson

QB Josh Allen + WR Stefon Diggs or WR Gabe Davis + WR Kendrick Bourne or TE Mike Gesicki

QB Lamar Jackson + RB Jahmyr Gibbs + TE Mark Andrews and/or WR Zay Flowers

QB Lamar Jackson + WR Amon-Ra St. Brown + TE Mark Andrews and/or WR Zay Flowers

QB Matthew Stafford + WR Cooper Kupp + WR George Pickens +/- TE Tyler Higbee

QB Sam Howell + WR Terry McLaurin or WR Curtis Samuel + WR Wan'Dale Robinson

QB PJ Walker/QB Deshaun Watson + WR Amari Cooper or WR Elijah Moore + WR Josh Downs

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Cooper Kupp vs. PIT ($9,500)

I highlighted Kupp last week and he responded with 148 yards and a touchdown. You'd figure the Rams will rely on him even more this week with the news that Kyren Williams is out. He's been priced up, but so have Stefon Diggs ($8,900) and Keenan Allen ($8,600). Hopefully, the high price keeps some people off Kupp because he has a clearer path to separate himself at the position without Tyreek Hill and Ja'Marr Chase on this slate. 

• RB Josh Jacobs at CHI ($7,400)

Spending up for Jacobs at RB is about targeting the matchup against the Bears, who will start Tyson Bagent out of Division II Shepherd University. It also doesn't hurt that Jimmy Garoppolo is out and Aidan O'Connell is likely to start. Jacobs was targeted 11 times and caught eight for 81 yards in O'Connell's only previous start against the Chargers in Week 4. The Raiders should find themselves with opportunities to score, and I expect they'll want to lean on Jacobs to help out the rookie QB. 

Honorable Mentions: QB Lamar Jackson ($7,600); WR Stefon Diggs ($8,900); TE Travis Kelce ($8,000)

Fading the Field

In some cases it makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• QB Patrick Mahomes vs. LAC ($8,300)

I haven't rostered Mahomes once all season and it's worked out just fine as he's yet to eclipse 26 fantasy points through six games. It's not that I don't like Mahomes or the Chiefs offense, but you need 35-plus fantasy points to pay off his salary. Spending that much at QB also makes it difficult to roster the likes of Cooper Kupp and the other elite WRs. I know It's tempting to roster Mahomes if you're planning on playing Travis Kelce, but I think it makes more sense to roster Kelce alone or pair him with Isiah Pacheco even Justin Herbert, who's shown more rushing upside recently.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB Jerome Ford at IND ($5,100)

The Browns defense is elite and because of that, they're averaging 18.6 more plays than their opponents. That's a crazy number and it's led to them leading the league in plays per game. The point is that they should see a ton of the ball against the Colts as I don't expect Gardner Minshew to sustain long drives. Kareem Hunt is listed as questionable with a thigh injury, but Ford is the lead back regardless. He offers upside in the passing game and plenty of TD equity with the Browns in a favorable spot on the road. In this case, it doesn't really matter who starts at QB. 

Honorable Mentions: TE Mark Andrews ($5,700); WR Zay Flowers ($5,700)

The Bargain Bin

QB Daniel Jones vs. WAS ($5,600)

QB Sam Howell at NYG ($5,500)

QB Russell Wilson vs. GB ($5,400)

QB Aidan O'Connell at CHI ($4,700)

RB Jerome Ford at IND ($5,100)

RB Kareem Hunt at IND ($5,000)

WR Joshua Palmer at KC ($4,800)

WR Rashee Rice vs. LAC ($4,700)

WR Josh Downs vs CLE ($4,500)

WR Kendrick Bourne vs. BUF ($4,400)

WR Elijah Moore at IND ($4,200)

WR Curtis Samuel at NYG ($4,000)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs ARI ($3,900)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. WAS ($3,800)

WR Rondale Moore at SEA ($3,500)

TE Michael Mayer at CHI ($2,700)

TE Trey McBride at SEA ($2,600)

Injuries to Monitor

• QB Deshaun Watson at IND

Watson hasn't played since Week 3 and is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury but seems to be trending in the right direction after practicing Thursday and Friday. His status is important to monitor because the Browns are in one of the better spots on the slate and I'd have a lot more interest in Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore and David Njoku with Watson under center than PJ Walker. 

Weather

• As of Friday morning, New York is expected to have sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. It's also expected to be relatively windy in New England and Baltimore with 15-20 mph sustained and gusts up to 30. You may want to check the forecast on Sunday morning if you're considering the QBs in any of those spots.