DraftKings NFL: Week 3 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's slate includes 13 games and features three matchups with implied totals over 50. The Bills-Dolphins matchup will be a popular target as MVP frontrunner Josh Allen faces off against red-hot Tua Tagovailoa. So will the Vikings-Lions matchup as both teams have appealing options at every position. The Chiefs will go somewhat overlooked based on Travis Kelce's inflated salary and the fact that Mahomes has so many options to throw to. Besides those three spots, I'd expect the Eagles and Jalen Hurts to garner some attention with a soft matchup against the Commanders. After that, it's wide open. I'll be looking to target a couple of the lower-total games for leverage. The Falcons-Seahawks matchup stands out in that sense, especially the Atlanta side as Marcus Mariota is cheap and it's easy to pair him with Drake London or Kyle Pitts. Keep in mind that winning GPPs in NFL DFS is most often done by fading the most popular spots. Last week's Ravens-Dolphins game was pretty much an afterthought and we saw the likes of Lamar Jackson, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill come in at single-digit percentages in terms of rostership. Those are the spots you should be looking for as it's the leverage off of the chalk that vaults lineups to the top. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value 

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good options both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. These players, combined with passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• RB Leonard Fournette vs. GB ($6,500)

Fournette's salary keeps dropping and now the Bucs will be without Mike Evans (suspension) and likely other WRs (injury). He projects among the top players on the slate in terms of value after 23-plus touches in each of the first two games. He should get similar use Sunday and will be one of, if not the most, popular RBs as a result. 

• QB Marcus Mariota at SEA ($5,500)

Mariota stands out amongst the cheap QBs after 18 rushing attempts for 88 yards and a TD over the first two weeks. The Falcons have a pretty decent matchup against the Seahawks and Mariota is quite a bit cheaper than the top two projected QBs on the slate, Josh Allen ($8,200) and Jalen Hurts ($7,600). 

I mentioned Brandin Cooks ($5,800) last week and now he's even cheaper and has a better matchup against the Bears. With 22 targets in two weeks, he stands out in the mid-range in terms of value for cash games. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Josh Allen at MIA ($8,200)

QB Jalen Hurts at WAS ($7,600)

QB Marcus Mariota at SEA ($5,500)

RB Dalvin Cook vs. DET ($7,900)

RB Joe Mixon at NYJ ($7,600)

RB Leonard Fournette vs. GB ($6,500)

RB David Montgomery vs. HOU ($5,900)

WR Cooper Kupp at ARI ($9,900)

WR Stefon Diggs at MIA ($7,700)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown at MIN ($7,200)

WR Mike Williams vs. JAX ($6,700)

WR Tee Higgins at NYJ ($6,100)

WR Brandin Cooks at CHI ($5,800)

WR Curtis Samuel vs. PHI ($5,100)

TE Tyler Higbee at ARI ($4,500)

TE T.J. Hockenson at MIN ($4,200)

TE Irv Smith vs. DET ($3,100)

D/ST Carolina Panthers vs. NO ($2,600)

D/ST Houston Texans at CHI ($2,600)

D/ST Jacksonville Jaguars at LAC ($2,300) (if Herbert is out)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Buffalo Bills (29.25) at Miami Dolphins (23.25)

BILLS

Buffalo looks like the best team in football and Josh Allen ($8,200) is the early frontrunner for MVP. He's put up 32-plus fantasy points in both games and now gets a soft matchup against Miami's suspect defense in a game that has shootout potential. The Bills will no doubt be popular, but Allen being the most expensive QB should keep enough people off of him. Stefon Diggs ($7,700) has been flying through two games with 20 catches for 270 yards and four TDs already. He seems like a bargain. Keep an eye the status of Gabe Davis ($6,300) (ankle), who missed last week and is listed as questionable. If he misses again, the likes of Dawson Knox ($4,100), Isaiah McKenzie ($4,700) and Jamison Crowder ($4,400) would stand to benefit. Knox would be my pick of the bunch after we saw him have multiple two-touchdown games last season. If Davis plays, I might just avoid him based on the salary and questionable health. Pairing Allen and Diggs is enough, especially in single entry/3 max contests. 

DOLPHINS

Miami was the talk of the league this week after Tua Tagovailoa ($6,100) threw for a whopping 469 yards and six TDs in a thrilling comeback win over the Ravens. Sunday's matchup against Buffalo, who's defense is banged up and missing Tre'Davious White, is likely to the see the Dolphins playing from behind again, which would give Tua another chance to air it out. Tyreek Hill ($7,600) and Jaylen Waddle ($6,800) are coming off massive games as both eclipsed 40 fantasy points. Hill has 19 catches on 25 targets through two weeks while Waddle has 15 catches on 24 targets. It's clear that Tagovailoa is going to focus on these two throughout the season and either could go off in any matchup. I usually side with Hill just based on his explosiveness and TD upside every time he touches the ball. Mike Gesicki ($4,300) was a little more involved last week, catching all four of his targets for 41 yards and a TD. He's cheap enough to include in stacks with Tua and one of the WRs. Both of these teams use multiple running backs, making it easy to only target the passing-games. 

• Favorite Stack: QB Allen + WR Diggs + WR Hill + TE Knox

Detroit Lions (23.25) at Minnesota Vikings (29.25)

LIONS

Detroit's offense has looked surprisingly good through two weeks, putting up 35 and 36 points. Now they get a matchup against Minnesota, which is coming off a short week and likely to be without SS Harrison Smith. Jared Goff ($5,800) has thrown six TDs already this season and stands out as one of the few QBs under $6K capable of scoring 25-plus fantasy points. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,200) continues to be a revelation. Dating to last season, he's drawn double-digit targets in eight consecutive games and is coming off 174 total yards and two TDs in last week's win over Washington. He's still underpriced based on all the numbers. DJ Chark ($5,100) has seen 12 targets through two weeks and offers big-play upside as Goff's main deep threat. T.J. Hockenson ($4,200) projects as one of the best TEs on the slate in terms of value after drawing seven targets in each of the first two games. I worry about D'Andre Swift's ($7,200) health and use, but he's busted off 50-yard runs in each game and caught a TD on five targets last week. 

VIKINGS 

Home against the Lions is usually a prime matchup to target and that shows no signs of changing this season as Detroit has already allowed big games from Hurts and Wentz. Kirk Cousins ($6,700) will be looking to bounce back after a disastrous showing Monday night against the Eagles when he threw three INTs and led the Vikings to just seven points. Dalvin Cook ($7,900) had only six carries in that game, but Sunday's script should be much more favorable and the Lions have allowed more fantasy points to RBs than any team. Justin Jefferson ($9,300) torched Detroit last season and has a ceiling as high as any player on the slate in this spot. Adam Thielen ($5,900) is relatively affordable for a player that still has multiple TD upside. Irv Smith ($3,100) is still cheap after catching five of eight targets for 36 yards and a TD on Monday night (he dropped what would've been another TD). I don't have much interest in rostering Cousins, but that won't stop me from having multiple players from the Vikings considering that they have a 29.25 implied total and could easily be the highest scoring team Sunday. 

• Favorite Stack: QB Goff + RB Cook + WR St. Brown + TE Hockenson or TE Smith

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Jalen Hurts + WR A.J. Brown or WR DeVonta Smith + WR Curtis Samuel + TE Dallas Goedert

QB Justin Herbert + WR Mike Williams + WR Christian Kirk + TE Gerald Everett

QB Kirk Cousins + WR Justin Jefferson/WR Adam Thielen + WR Amon-Ra St. Brown + TE Irv Smith

QB Joe Burrow + WR Ja'Marr Chase and/or WR Tee Higgins + WR Garrett Wilson or WR Elijah Moore

QB Tua Tagovailoa + WR Stefon Diggs + WR Tyreek Hill +/- WR Jaylen Waddle or TE Mike Gesicki

QB Jared Goff + WR Amon-Ra St. Brown + WR Justin Jefferson + TE T.J. Hockenson

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Stefon Diggs at MIA ($7,700)

Diggs is coming off a monster game Monday when he caught 12 of 15 targets for 148 yards and three TDs. He would've surely been more expensive for this slate had that game been played on Sunday. There are many great options at WR, but Diggs can provide similar production to that of Cooper Kupp ($9,900) and Justin Jefferson ($9,300) for considerably cheaper. 

• RB Dalvin Cook vs. DET ($7,900)

Cook had only six carries in Monday's loss to the Eagles but Sunday's matchup at home against Detroit looks like the perfect bounce back opportunity. The Lions have allowed the most fantasy points in the league to running backs (not much has changed since last season) and the Vikings have the highest implied total on the slate. Cook has the upside for 150-plus scrimmage yards and multiple TDs in this spot. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Tyreek Hill, MIA vs. BUF ($7,600); Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. JAX ($8,000) (if Keenan Allen is out)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Derrick Henry vs. LV ($8,100)

The Titans offense looks especially worse this season without the threat of A.J. Brown and even the presence of Julio Jones. Henry hasn't been involved in the passing game and playing from behind really hampers his upside. Not to mention that both teams play at a relatively slow pace, which makes the matchup one that I want to avoid in general. If you're still bullish on Henry this week, he'd make for a nice leverage option as he'll be among the least popular. Fading Henry almost seems like taking the easy way out so I'll throw in Jonathan Taylor ($9,000) and Christian McCaffrey ($8,800). I'd rather spend that salary at WR or on Dalvin Cook. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB David Montgomery vs. HOU ($5,900)

The Bears won't be favored often this season but they are on Sunday, which means it should be a pretty good spot Montgomery considering his rather cheap salary. He's had 17-plus touches in each of the first two weeks and should be more involved in the passing game. Besides Fournette, there aren't many cheap RBs that stand out and Montgomery should have a decent chance for 100-plus yards and a TD. 

Honorable Mentions: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET at MIN ($7,200); Mike Williams, LAC vs. JAX ($6,700) (if Keenan Allen is out)

The Bargain Bin

QB Tua Tagovailoa vs. BUF ($6,100)

QB Jared Goff at MIN ($5,800)

QB Geno Smith vs. ATL ($5,000)

RB Miles Sanders at WAS ($5,500)

RB Josh Jacobs at TEN ($5,400)

RB Michael Carter vs. CIN ($5,200)

RB Dameon Pierce at CHI ($5,000)

WR Treylon Burks vs. LV ($4,900)

WR Russell Gage vs. GB ($4,800)

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling at IND ($4,700)

WR Chris Olave at CAR ($4,500)

WR Greg Dortch vs. LAR ($4,300)

WR Nico Collins at CHI ($4,000)

WR Breshad Perriman vs. GB ($3,900)

WR Scotty Miller vs. GB ($3,800)

TE Logan Thomas vs. PHI ($3,500)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Keenan Allen vs. JAX 

Allen missed last week due to a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable for Sunday. If he misses again, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler should see usage bumps while Joshua Palmer would benefit most as Allen's direct replacement. It's important news to monitor because the Chargers are in a pretty good spot at home against the Jaguars and Allen's potential absence would free up 10 extra targets. 

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers WRs 

Tampa Bay is decimated at WR this week. Mike Evans is suspended and Chris Godwin has already been ruled out while Julio Jones, Russell Gage ($4,700) and Breshad Perriman are questionable. Scotty Miller ($3,800) drew eight targets last week and could be in line for similar usage again. Of the three currently listed as questionable, I'd have the most interest Gage as Jones' health is just impossible to trust at this point in his career. 

Weather

Nothing to worry about this week.