DraftKings NFL: Week 17 DFS Tournament Guide

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

The final week of the regular season means a main DFS slate with 15 games, though some of the teams involved will essentially be dead weight due to the expectation of starters being rested. In some cases, there's a backup who could see enough work to justify DFS interest, but often it's hard to estimate ahead of time how snaps and touches will be divided. Tread carefully!

As always, I'm happy to discuss strategy in the comments below, or on twitter (@JerryDonabedian).

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1:00, 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the vast majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

(Bold for over/unders of 52+ and implied totals of 26+)

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their DK salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our tourney lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few "chalk" picks. These players, along with a couple passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• Malcolm Brown vs. ARZ ($4,300)

Brown won't gain a whole lot more than what's blocked, and he isn't likely to be playing in a shootout this week. That's the bad news. The good news? He could find himself in an every-down role, as the Rams otherwise have scatback Raymond Calais and special teamer Xavier Jones as their healthy options in the backfield. Given the importance of Sunday's game, Sean McVay figures to lean on the guy with experience and a proven comfort level in his offense.

• Latavius Murray at CAR ($5,600)

Alvin Kamara (reserve/COVID-19) has been ruled out, and he's also likely to miss a playoff game unless the Saints secure a bye week. They'll need some help to make it happen, but it does appear they intend to go all-out for the win come Sunday. That likely means a heavy dose of Murray, who put up 35.0 and 39.7 DK points when Kamara missed two games last year.

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Lamar Jackson at CIN ($8,000)

QB Kirk Cousins at DET ($6,300)

QB Drew Lock vs. LV ($5,000)

RB Derrick Henry at HOU ($9,400)

RB Melvin Gordon vs. LV ($5,700)

WR Davante Adams at CHI ($9,200)

WR Justin Jefferson at DET ($7,600)

WR DJ Moore vs. NO ($5,700)

WR Curtis Samuel vs. NO ($5,300)

WR Marvin Jones vs. MIN ($5,100)

WR Mike Williams at KC ($5,000)

WR Jerry Jeudy vs. LV ($4,200)

WR Richie James vs. SEA ($3,100)

TE George Kittle vs. SEA ($6,000)

TE Mike Gesicki at BUF ($4,200)

TE Irv Smith at DET ($3,900)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of any tournament lineup, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the contest, hoping to take advantage of a tight game where both teams are still chucking the ball around late in the fourth quarter. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Tennessee Titans (31.75) at Houston Texans (24.25)

Pace Outlook

Overall Pace: Titans - 4th (25.99),  Texans - 13th (27.02)

Neutral-Situation Pace: Titans - 3rd (28.67),  Texans - 16th (30.16)

The Titans play at a fast pace despite running the ball frequently, while Houston moves a bit slower but also leans more heavily on its quarterback. The first matchup between these teams didn't disappoint, with Tennessee winning 42-36 in overtime back in Week 6. Derrick Henry scored 43.4 DK points, and Ryan Tannehill and Deshaun Watson both easily topped 30.

Titans

Tannehill checks in at a season-high $7,000, after reaching 30 DK points twice in the past four games. You might argue that the Texans have struggled to stop the run more so than the pass, but they just got picked apart by Brandon Allen last week, and only eight teams have allowed more points to QBs this season.

The likes of Anthony Firkser ($2,800) and Cameron Batson ($3,000) haven't seen many targets in recent weeks, so it's best to pick from the core trio of pass catchers in a Tannehill stack. A.J. Brown ($7,200) is the star attraction but also the most expensive, followed by WR Corey Davis ($6,200) and TE Jonnu Smith ($3,800).

The $1k price gap between Brown and Davis is wider than the 2020 production justifies, but I'd also argue it's small relative to the talent differential. While most Tennessee stacks will use just one of the two, you could maybe make an argument for rostering both in a lineup that doesn't use Henry.

Texans

Deshaun Watson ($7,700) and Brandin Cooks ($6,900) are the star attractions, with David Johnson ($6,800) being the third guy assured of significant volume. The price on David is a season high, but he did have his two best games of the year the past two weeks, playing 90 and 80 percent of snaps. While he's an easy fade if Duke Johnson returns from a neck injury, David could have another huge week if he's playing nearly every snap in a likely shootout.

Keke Coutee ($5,600) and Chad Hansen ($4,100) both have done well with their limited targets, but that also means they're overpriced relative to the volume, even in a favorable matchup. I'd rather pay up for the safe play (Cooks) than mess around with Houston's scrub receivers or TE committee.

• Best Stack: QB Tannehill + RB Henry + WR Brown + WR Cooks + TE Smith

Raiders (26.75) at Broncos (24.25)

Pace Outlook

Overall Pace: Raiders - 25th (28.08),  Broncos - 5th (26.25)

Neutral-Situation Pace: Raiders - 23rd (31.02),  Broncos - 15th (30.15)

Denver's No. 5 ranking in pace is largely a product of lots of incompletions, with Drew Lock's 57.0 completion percentage putting him last among all qualified passers. Neither Denver nor Vegas really plays uptempo, but the Raiders do have a terrible defense that tends to put them in a lot of shootouts.

Raiders

Josh Jacobs ($6,200) had his second-best fantasy game of the season Week 10 against the Broncos, but he's reached 20 DK points just once (and barely) in five subsequent games, still averaging just 3.8 YPC on the season. His price is tied for a season low, and it looks pretty reasonable relative to his 2020 scoring average of 15.6 DK points.

Derek Carr ($5,700) is the other potential centerpiece, and he's topped 25 DK points in three of his past four games (the other was the game he left early with an injury). The Raiders have been more reliant on the pass over the past month, regularly playing from behind and struggling to get Jacobs going.

You already know the deal with Darren Waller ($7,100), who put up 48, 14.5, 33 and 19.2 DK points the past four weeks. His price has shot up accordingly, but it's easy enough to fit him in any Raiders-Broncos stack, as Waller is the only player with an upper-echelon price from either team.

Nelson Agholor ($5,400) is the other reliable source of catches and targets, averaging 14.2 DK points in his 12 starts this year. His reliance on deep passes to produce those fantasy points has made him somewhat inconsistent, but that's often a good thing in DFS tournaments. \

Agholor has scored 20 PPR points four times this year, including a season-high 29.5 in a tough matchup with Miami last week. He's also been a little more consistent late in the year, drawing six or more targets in five straight games heading into Sunday.

Broncos

The Denver offense stinks, but so does the Vegas defense. It's a true pillow fight, between two units that rank bottom five in a laundry list of statistics. Despite the bad situation, Gordon has put up 4.7 YPC and nine TDs in 14 games, remaining productive on a per-touch basis.

Lock ($5,000) has been a mess, but that's largely reflected in his price, and we did see a decent ceiling when he scored 33.2 DK points against Atlanta in Week 9 and 26.6 points versus the Panthers in Week 14. Granted, he faced the Raiders in between those two games and finished with only 11.0 DK points in a blowout loss.

Jeudy should be a popular play this week, as he's been getting a lot of attention after last week's odd performance with six catches and five drops on 15 targets. The volume was rather surprising, as he'd seen just 14 targets over his previous four games combined. The rookie did have productive stretches Weeks 1-4 and 8-10, but he's averaging just 8.9 DK points overall.

Noah Fant ($4,400) has been the closet thing Denver has to a consistent pass catcher, while Tim Patrick ($4,000) has typically been a total bust when he doesn't score a touchdown. Patrick hasn't seen more than five targets in a game since the aforementioned Week 10 loss, while Fant just got seven, 11 and nine targets the past three weeks.

• Best Stack: QB Carr + RB Gordon + WR Jeudy + WR Agholor + TE Waller

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Lock + RB Jacobs + WR Jeudy + TE Fant

QB Watson + RB Henry + WR Cooks

QB Kirk Cousins + RB D'Andre Swift + WR Justin Jefferson + WR Marvin Jones + TE Irv Smith

QB Lamar Jackson + WR Tee Higgins + TE Mark Andrews

QB Andy Dalton + WR CeeDee Lamb + WR Michael Gallup + WR Darius Slayton

QB Tua Tagovailoa + RB Myles Gaskin + TE Mike Gesicki

QB Baker Mayfield + WR Rashard Higgins + WR James Washington

RB-Defense Pairing

We can pair a running back with his team's defense to double our bet on favorable game script in certain matchups. Just keep in mind that the scoring correlations aren't nearly as strong as those between quarterbacks and pass catchers, so it isn't worth forcing into a lineup unless the prices for each individual commodity make sense. We also need to account for specialized backfield roles, e.g., using Jonathan Taylor rather than Nyheim Hines with the Colts defense.

• RB Kenyan Drake ($5,400) + Cardinals D/ST ($2,800) at LAR

This is still a tough matchup for Drake, but the Arizona defense caught a huge break when Jared Goff (thumb) and Cooper Kupp (COVID-19) were ruled out for the Rams. That improves the odds of a Cardinals victory, which also means better odds for Drake to get a lot of carries and score a touchdown. Plus, backfield mate Chase Edmonds (hip) is a game-time decision, potentially setting up Drake for a few more targets than usual.

Honorable Mention: RB Melvin Gordon ($5,700) + Broncos D/ST ($2,400) vs. LV; RB Ty Johnson ($4,300) + Jets D/ST ($2,300) vs. NE

High-Priced Hero

• WR Justin Jefferson at DET ($7,600)

Jefferson got eight or more targets in each of the past five games, with Kirk Cousins throwing 35 or more passes in every contest. The streak should continue this week, as the Vikings won't have Dalvin Cook (personal) but nonetheless figure to sustain long drives while facing arguably the worst defense in the league. Jefferson is only $200 more expensive than Adam Thielen, who has taken a backseat to the rookie in every regard besides TDs.

Honorable Mentions: RB Derrick Henry, TEN vs. HOU ($9,400); RB Austin Ekeler, LAC at KC ($7,500); WR DK Metcalf, SEA at SF ($7,300)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players carrying high ownership without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. Recency bias is often to blame, but in some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• WR Mike Evans vs. ATL ($7,500)

Evans was dominant last week in Detroit, but he hasn't really been a target hog this season, instead relying on touchdowns to get it done. With Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski all still competing for targets, the $1,400 price hike on Evans feels like a rip-off.

Other Fades: WR Allen Robinson, CHI vs. GB ($7,700); WR Stefon Diggs, BUF vs. MIA ($8,100)

The SMASH Spot

Volume may be king, but we still need to account for efficiency, pinpointing situations that are likely to lead to impressive production in terms of YPA, YPC or YPT.

• Melvin Gordon vs. LV ($5,700)

Gordon has averaged 16 carries and three targets in the four games Phillip Lindsay has missed this season, up from 12.3 carries and 2.6 targets in the 10 games both running backs have played. The expanded role didn't lead to much production last week against Gordon's former team in Los Angeles, but he should do better in a home matchup with the Raiders, as only five teams have allowed more fantasy points to running backs. Vegas is 31st in run-defense DVOA (2.2%) and 25th in opponent YPC (4.7).   

Honorable Mention: RB Jonathan Taylor, IND vs. JAX ($7,400); RB D'Andre Swift, DET vs. MIN ($6,300)

The Bargain Bin

QB Baker Mayfield vs. PIT ($5,500)

QB Tua Tagovailoa at BUF ($5,100)

QB Drew Lock vs. LV ($5,000)

RB Dare Ogunbowale at IND ($4,500)

RB Darwin Thompson vs. LAC ($4,400)

RB Ty Johnson at NE ($4,300)

RB Rodney Smith vs. NO ($4,000)

WR Rashard Higgins vs. PIT ($4,500)

WR Jerry Jeudy vs. LV ($4,200)

WR Mecole Hardman vs. LAC ($4,200)

WR Zach Pascal vs. JAX ($4,200)

WR Darius Slayton vs. DAL ($4,100)

WR James Washington at CLE ($3,500)

WR Richie James vs. SEA ($3,100)

TE Irv Smith at DET ($3,900)

TE Jonnu Smith at HOU ($3,800)

TE Evan Engram vs. DAL ($3,700)

TE Dawson Knox vs. MIA ($3,000)

D/ST Cleveland Browns vs. PIT ($2,500)

D/ST Denver Broncos vs. LV ($2,400)

Weather Watch

A snow game doesn't appear likely, but the forecast does call for rain and temperatures in the 30s in New York and Cleveland. There's also supposed to be a lot of fog in Kansas City, though it's pretty rare for fog to have a significant impact on an NFL game. For now, there aren't any games that look to bad for quarterbacks and pass catchers.

The Toilet Bowl

I'm now running a weekly DraftKings contest where the goal is to have the LOWEST point total rather than the highest.

There's no way to make a paid contest of this sort on DK, but I can promise that the winner each week will get a shoutout in the following week's tournament guide. And if anyone manages to win the contest in two different weeks this season, I'll make a $50 donation to the charity of their choice (or to their venmo account).

Congratulation to Week 16 champ russyruss34, who beat outback22 by 0.2 points once we made our adjustments for penalties. Here's the winning lineup:

And here are the rules for the contest:

1. All lineups must use at least $49,500 of the salary cap.
2. Any player with zero points automatically adds 3x of their salary to your point total. So you can put an injured player who costs $7,500 in your lineup, but then we're adding 22.5 points to your final score. The same goes for players who aren't injured but nonetheless finish with zero points. However, negative scores are allowed — in fact, they're encouraged — free of any penalty.

OK, here's the link: https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/100074674

Good Luck!