DraftKings NFL: Week 12 Value Plays

As always, I will try to cover a mix of expensive and cheap plays, while also hitting some high- and low-percentage players and will also toss in a cheapie stab or two at each spot if you are looking to cut some cap. There are no byes this week, so even with the extra games Thursday, the Sunday slate still feels full with 12 matchups. There is only one game on the Sunday schedule with an over/under higher than 50 (Arizona at Atlanta), and we even have a game with a total that slides under 40 points with the Chiefs and Broncos at 39.5.

QUARTERBACK

Thursday

Kirk Cousins, WAS vs. DAL ($5,900): The quarterback options for Thursday got smaller Tuesday with the news that Andrew Luck will miss the game because he's in the concussion protocol. Ben Roethlisberger and his great history against Indy (an incredible 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions with 886 yards passing in two games the last two seasons) will be popular, but for the price I am going back to Kirk Cousins. Cousins is off a gem game Sunday night against the Packers (375 yards and three scores), and this should be another game where the Redskins will have to score to win. He has a trio of weapons at wide receiver and also gets to throw to two solid tight end targets in Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis. The combo of weapons, recent form, game flow and price points me to Cousins for the short Thursday schedule.

Sunday

Cam Newton, CAR at Oak ($6,800): Cam is a bit off the radar these days after his 2015 MVP season; especially struggling lately with only four combined touchdowns in his last four games. This game has the second-highest over/under on Sunday at 49.5. The Raiders are favored in the game by 3.5 points and the Panthers will need Cam's arms and legs to hang in this one. I project a couple scores through the air and one on the ground as Cam keeps his squad in the game. With Drew Brees and Matt Ryan at home and Newton's recent troubles, Cam is going to come at a very low percentage and could pay off nicely.

Other Options:Drew Brees, NO vs. LA ($7,100); Matt Ryan, ATL vs. ARZ ($6,900); Russell Wilson, SEA at TB ($6,700); Marcus Mariota, TEN at CHI ($7,200)

Cheapie Stabs:

Colin Kaepernick, SF at MIA ($5,700); Tyrod Taylor, BUF vs. JAX ($5,900): Both provide some extra value with their legs and could pay off for their less than 6K prices. Even though the Niners are a complete embarrassment in the standings, Kaep has quietly accounted for two touchdowns in each of the last three weeks, while his price has still remained less than $6,000.

RUNNING BACK

Thursday

Frank Gore, IND vs. PIT ($5,200): With a short slate, almost everyone will have Le'Veon Bell or Ezekiel Elliott (and I love both this week), but the question will be where to go for a second running back or even a third at flex. Many teams will try to stack both the big running backs (especially after the Bell/David Johnson monster combo last week) and the rest likely will opt for cheap Rob Kelley after his big outing Sunday night against Green Bay. On a short slate, you have to be a little different somewhere, and I think Gore presents just that opportunity. Gore does not come with a huge ceiling, but with Scott Tolzien starting, one would think we will get a heavy dose of Gore not only on the ground, but also with a slew of dump-off passes. With the full point PPR on DraftKings, I like Gore as a way to get a little different from the field.

Sunday

Jay Ajayi, MIA vs. SF ($7,600): Once again, it is that time of the week to pick on the 49ers' run defense. The Niners allowed 124 yards on only 19 carries to LaGarrette Blount, and that doesn't even note a 35-yard touchdown Blount had that was called back by a hold. The Niners just cannot stop anyone on the ground, and this game at home provides a perfect spot to deploy Ajayi. Ajayi has quieted a bit since his back-to-back 200 rushing yard games, but he still ran the ball effectively in the three games since, averaging 89 yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. It is hard to see Ajayi not thrashing the Niners' defense Sunday, and he is easily my favorite RB play on the Sunday slate.

Rashad Jennings, NYG at CLE ($5,600): I am not necessarily a huge Rashad Jennings fan, but this is the perfect combo of coach, matchup and price. If anyone wants more information on how Ben McAdoo likes to run his offense in the second half with a lead, I suggest reading any of the articles/rants of RotoWire's Chris Liss this season. McAdoo loves to milk the clock with a lead with his running game, and this is a game where the Giants should snag a lead early against the lowly Browns. In addition to the game flow that is likely to favor Jennings, he has come on lately with 87 and 85 rushing yards in his last two games. At only $5,600, Jennings presents a nice opportunity to save some cash while also having a legit shot at 100 yards and a score.

Other Options:David Johnson ARZ at ATL ($8,900); DeMarco Murray, TEN at CHI ($7,700); Thomas Rawls, SEA at TB ($5,700); Todd Gurley, LA at NO ($5,800)

Cheapie Stab:

Carlos Hyde, SF at MIA ($4,800): After a strong start to the season, Hyde suffered through injuries, but finally looked healthy again last week against the Pats, rushing for 86 yards on his 19 carries.

WIDE RECEIVER

Thursday

Pierre Garcon, WAS at DAL ($3,900): The Indy receivers dropped down a peg with no Andrew Luck, Antonio Brown likely will be on a large percentage of teams and Garcon presents a way to save some significant cash at one WR spot. He has quietly been a target monster recently; in the Skins' last five games, Garcon has 26 receptions on 40 targets; exactly eight per contest. At $3,900, I absolutely love getting that level of volume in a passing offense, especially in a game with an over/under higher than 50 points. Washington is a seven-point underdog and likely will pass a lot to keep up with Dallas, especially in the second half, which feeds perfectly into Garcon being a great play at a very cheap price that should have been adjusted upward by now.

Sunday

Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ at ATL ($7,000): Fitz continues to be the benefactor of a large volume of targets from Carson Palmer, averaging more than 10 targets per week this season, and has been a PPR beast lately with 37 catches in the last four games. This week, he heads to Atlanta, on which wide receivers have feasted lately. In the last four weeks, the Falcons have surrendered 140 yards to Tyrell Williams, 94 yards and a score to Jordy Nelson and 150 yards and two scores to Mike Evans. In addition, the Falcons have allowed four passing touchdowns in two of their last three games. This game features the only over/under higher than 50 points Sunday, and with the Cardinals likely having to score to keep up with the Falcons in Atlanta, this is a great spot for Fitz to be quite large, at a manageable price.

DeVante Parker, MIA vs. SF ($4,700): It has been discussed at length everywhere that the 49ers can't even come close to stopping the run, but they aren't doing a lot to stop the pass, either. Tom Brady threw for four scores last week and the week before, the Niners allowed 100 yards plus to both Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. After an offseason of hype based on how he finished 2015, Parker is finally flashing again, receiving 18 targets the last two weeks while racking up 182 receiving yards and a score. The price on DraftKings has not adjusted much to his recent success and he is a great bargain at only $4,700 at home in a price matchup.

Other Options: Amari Cooper, OAK vs. CAR ($7,700); Julian Edelman, NE at NYJ ($6,800); Kenny Britt, LA at NO ($5,400); Rishard Matthews, TEN at CHI ($5,800); Doug Baldwin, SEA at TB ($6,400); Brandin Cooks, NO vs. LA ($6,800)

Cheapie Stab:

Tyler Boyd, CIN at BAL ($4,000): After A.J. Green went out injured early last week, Boyd saw eight targets, racking up 54 yards and his first career touchdown.

TIGHT END

Thursday

I do not love anyone on the Thursday slate at TE, but with all the studs to try to fit in, I likely will not pay up for Jordan Reed at $6,200. I can see using either Jason Witten ($3,200) or Eric Ebron ($4,000) on most of my teams.

Sunday

Vance McDonald, SF at Mia ($3,000): While I like the prices on Jimmy Graham and Delanie Walker, McDonald's price is just too cheap to ignore. At $3,000, he allows a lot of cap to be deployed for another stud RB or WR. McDonald's season changed upon the arrival of Colin Kaepernick to the starting lineup, and he has six targets in each of the last four games. McDonald has averaged 60 yards per game the last three weeks and has scored twice in that period. He is clearly a focal point in the passing game for Kaep, and his price is too good of an opportunity to pass up, especially on a team that finds itself trailing every single week.

Other Options:Jimmy Graham, SEA at TB ($5,300); Delanie Walker, TEN at CHI ($4,900)

Cheapie Stab:

Austin Hooper, ATL vs. ARZ ($2,800): Hooper has seen 14 targets the last three weeks. With Jacob Tamme placed on IR by the Falcons, Hooper will start and comes dirt cheap in a good passing offense.

DEFENSE

Thursday

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indy ($2,800): The high percentage play on defense on the short slate likely will be the Vikings off their two-touchdown (Cordarrelle Patterson can freaking fly, by the way) performance last week against the Cardinals. This is another spot where I will try to be a little different and will go with the Steelers facing the Colts without Andrew Luck. The Colts still have a lot of weapons and are at home, but I have to think Scott Tolzien makes a few mistakes that the Steelers can pounce on.

Sunday

Buffalo Bills vs. JAX ($3,800): The Bills' D has slowed a good amount from its early season success, but a matchup against the Jags is just the way to get back on track. The Bills have had seven games of at least three sacks and while they only had one sack last week, they picked off Andy Dalton twice. Blake Bortles is expected to play with through his shoulder injury and has struggled with accuracy all season, as he is tied for the league lead with 13 interceptions. The Bill should get after Bortles at home, compiling some sacks and also forcing some errant throws, a nice combo for a fantasy defense.

Other Options: NYG at CLE ($3,600); BAL vs. CIN ($3,100); MIA vs. SF ($3,300)