DraftKings NFL: Week 10 Tournament Guide

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

As always, I'm happy to discuss strategy in the comments below, or on twitter (@JerryDonabedian).

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1:00, 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the vast majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

(Bold for over/unders of 52+ and implied totals of 26+)

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their DK salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our tourney lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few "chalk" picks. These players, along with a couple passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• RB Mike Davis vs. TB ($4,000)

The matchup is difficult, but there's no matchup bad enough to negate this combination of price and expected workload. With Christian McCaffrey (shoulder) set to miss time again, Davis will return to the lead role in which he averaged 13.8 carries and 5.8 targets over a six-game span. He also had eight catches for 74 yards against this same Bucs defense back in Week 2, the game where McCaffrey suffered a high-ankle sprain while scoring his second TD of the afternoon.

• WR Brandin Cooks ($5,600) at CLE

It's been nearly a month and a half since the last time Cooks finished a game with less than nine targets, 60 yards or 13 PPR points. The hot streak started with a couple deep balls against Jacksonville in Week 5, but we've also seen the veteran wideout stay consistently busy on quicker throws — a big change from his 2019 usage in Los Angeles or even the first month of this season in Houston. The new role makes Cooks a steal at well under $6,000, especially against a subpar defense.

Update: Wind in Cleveland could bump Cooks down a notch and make him a tourney-only play.

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Kyler Murray ($8,000) vs. BUF

QB Carson Wentz ($5,900) at NYG

RB Alvin Kamara ($8,200) vs. SF

RB Miles Sanders ($6,400) at NYG

RB Chase Edmonds ($6,300) vs. BUF - if Kenyan Drake (ankle) is out

RB Duke Johnson ($5,000) at CLE - if David Johnson (concussion) is out

WR Davante Adams ($9,000) vs. JAX

WR DK Metcalf ($7,600) at LAR

WR Stefon Diggs ($7,500) at ARZ

WR Robby Anderson ($6,100) vs. TB

WR Diontae Johnson ($5,200) vs. CIN

WR Sterling Shepard ($5,000) vs. PHI

WR Josh Reynolds ($3,500) vs. SEA

TE Dallas Goedert ($4,200) at NYG

TE Austin Hooper ($3,900) vs. HOU

TE Logan Thomas ($3,300) at DET

TE Tyler Eifert ($2,700) at GB

D/ST Saints ($3,000) vs. SF

D/ST Lions ($2,600) vs. WAS

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of any tournament lineup, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the contest, hoping to take advantage of a tight game where both teams are still chucking the ball around late in the fourth quarter. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.

Buffalo Bills (27) at Arizona Cardinals (29.5)

Pace Outlook

Overall Pace: Bills - 23rd (28.25 sec.),  Cardinals - 3rd (25.35)

Neutral-Situation Pace: Bills - 8th (29.4),  Cardinals - 2nd (26.60)

Both teams have been involved in a number of shootouts, sporting above-average offenses and mediocre defenses. The Cardinals have gone no-huddle for a league-high 38 percent of snaps, a number that ticks up to 49 percent if we narrow it down to home games in neutral game script. The Bills haven't used much no-huddle, but we have seen them deploy pass-happy gameplans where the running backs are non-factors unless the team is sitting on a lead after halftime. Buffalo has the third-highest pass play rate (62 percent) in the first quarter of games.

Bills

Josh Allen ($7,500) and John Brown ($5,300) both broke out of slumps last week, with the former posting a season-high 39.0 DK points, his fourth time over 30 this year. Allen is a tourney option even in bad matchups, and he'll likely be among the three or four most popular plays at QB this week.

Stefon Diggs ($7,500) has 29 percent target share and leads the league in receiving, but he's been steady more so than spectacular, reaching 25 DK points just once. He's still a strong option for any lineup with Allen, averaging 21.9 points in the four games where his QB has scored 30 or more. Brown has averaged 13.8 points in those same games, though he left one of them early with an injury. He'd been struggling while playing through a knee injury from early October to early November, finally coming back to life last week.

Now it's Cole Beasley ($4,700) who is slumping, with his two worst games of the year coming in the past two weeks. He nonetheless has a solid average of 12.8 DK points, though he's scored only 11.9 in Allen's four big games. Cardinals slot corner Byron Murphy was activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list earlier this week, so Beasley won't have the benefit of facing a backup. 

It could be Brown and Gabriel Davis ($3,400) who face the softest coverage if the Cardinals use CB Patrick Peterson to shadow Diggs. The rookie, Davis, had his best game of the year last week with a 4-70-1 receiving line, but he caught just two passes for 18 yards over the previous three weeks combined, despite playing 140 snaps and running 72 routes in that span. Davis has been targeted on only 12.3 percent of his routes this year, compared to 26.8 percent for Diggs, 20.8 percent for Beasley and 17.6 percent for Brown.

Cardinals

Kyler Murray ($8,000) and Russell Wilson ($7,700) both are averaging over 30 DK points per game, and with the latter drawing a tough road matchup against the Rams, it's a safe bet the former will be heavily rostered. That doesn't make Murray a bad play, however, as we've already seen four outings with 30-plus points and two with more than 40 (the past two). He's a decent bet any week to lead the QB position in scoring.

The real question, perhaps, is whether to use a slumping DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700) or a red-hot Christian Kirk ($5,700) as the stacking partner? Kirk still hasn't seen more than eight targets in a game, and has mostly been living on touchdowns, but it's quite possible that trend continues for at least one more week, especially if the Bills use CB Tre'Davious White to shadow Hopkins. 

The other option here is RB Chase Edmonds ($6,300), who got 25 carries and three targets on 96 percent snap share last week with Kenyan Drake (ankle) out of the lineup. (Edmonds will only be a DFS option if Drake is inactive again.)

• Best Stack: QB Allen + RB Edmonds + WR Diggs

Philadelphia Eagles (23.75) at NY Giants   (20.75)

Pace Outlook

Overall Pace: Eagles - 4th (25.99),  Giants - 19th (27.71)

Neutral-Situation Pace: Eagles - 10th (29.46),  Giants - 20th (30.60)

Stacking the game with the lowest over/under (44.5) is far from conventional, but it's not necessarily a bad idea when a bunch of the individual player prices look favorable. Both teams are Top 8 in pass-play rate in neutral game script, which helps explain how Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones both had season highs for fantasy points in the first meeting between these teams, even though it was relatively low-scoring game (22-21 Eagles victory in Week 7).

Eagles

Wentz at $5,900 against a subpar pass defense feels like an obvious bargain, though he was horrific Week 8 against Dallas before the Eagles went on bye. Prior to that, he reached 30 DK points in back-to-back games, first against the Ravens and then against these same Giants.

Alshon Jeffery ($4,000) appears ready for his season debut after full practice participation earlier this week, but it isn't clear where he fits in now that Travis Fulgham ($6,400), Jalen Reagor ($4,200) and Greg Ward ($3,800) are all healthy. We also get Dallas Goedert ($4,200) at a reasonable price, likely handling a three-down role with Zach Ertz (ankle) still on injured reserve.

Fulgham has been the steady producer and target hog, but he's now priced accordingly. Reagor is much cheaper, and he got six targets and 73 percent snap share Week 8 in his first game back from a prolonged absence. The rookie also has a 17.4 aDOT, with four of his 14 targets (28.6 percent) going 20-plus yards downfield, per PFF. Granted, Fulgham has been more than just a possession guy, sporting an 11.6 aDOT while seeing 11 of his 44 targets (25.0 percent) 20-plus yards downfield.

Last but not least, Miles Sanders (knee) is set to return from injured reserve, likely picking up where he left off in a heavy-usage role. He catches enough passes to be included in a Wentz stack, though we haven't seen both guys have a big game in the same week this year (it did happen a few times late last season, however).

Giants

Daniel Jones ($5,200) has looked a little better in recent weeks, but we've still seen just one game with 20 DK points, the first matchup against Philadelphia. He's not playing at a level where I'm comfortable starting him against a solid defense, even if it's one he had some luck against just a few weeks ago.

Really, my interest here is limited to a bring-it-back player for Wentz stacks, choosing between Sterling Shepard ($5,000), Darius Slayton ($4,800) and Evan Engram ($4,500). Slayton, being the deep threat, might seem like the most natural fit, but he's been limited to 16 percent target share in the four full games Shepard has played. Engram has 25 percent share in those four games, and Shepard himself is at 23 percent.

• Best Stack: QB Wentz + WR Reagor + WR Shepard + TE Goedert

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Russell Wilson + WR DK Metcalf + WR Tyler Lockett + WR Josh Reynolds

QB Jared Goff + WR Cooper Kupp + WR DK Metcalf + WR Josh Reynolds

QB Deshaun Watson + WR Will Fuller + WR Brandin Cooks + TE Austin Hooper

QB Tom Brady + WR Chris Godwin + WR Curtis Samuel + TE Rob Gronkowski

QB Ben Roethlisberger + WR Diontae Johnson + WR Chase Claypool + WR Tee Higgins

RB-Defense Pairing

We can pair a running back with his team's defense to double our bet on favorable game script in certain matchups. Just keep in mind that the scoring correlations aren't nearly as strong as those between quarterbacks and pass catchers, so it isn't worth forcing into a lineup unless the prices for each individual commodity make sense. We also need to account for specialized backfield roles, e.g., using Jonathan Taylor rather than Nyheim Hines with the Colts defense.

• RB D'Andre Swift ($5,100) + Lions D/ST ($2,600) vs. WAS

Swift is averaging 10.5 carries and 4.5 targets over the past four games, with the Lions making an effort to get him the ball whenever he's on the field. He'll still rotate with Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson — at least to some extent — but the team could have a ton of backfield work to go around if the Washington offense pulls another no-show. The Lions defense is far from reliable, but the combination of price and matchup looks goods, and it isn't too hard to envision how Swift might benefit from an ugly performance by Washington QB Alex Smith.

Honorable Mention: RB Alvin Kamara ($8,200) + D/ST Saints ($3,000) vs. SF; RB Aaron Jones ($7,100) + D/ST Packers ($3,700) vs. JAX

High-Priced Hero

• WR Keenan Allen at MIA ($7,100)

The two games this week with the highest over/unders (BUF-ARZ, SEA-LAR) are loaded with expensive wide receivers, potentially setting up double-digit ownership for each of Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. We also know Davante Adams ($9,000) will be heavily rostered, so it stands to reason that guys like Allen and Terry McLaurin ($6,800) will be at least somewhat less popular than usual. 

Allen has a tricky matchup against the surging Dolphins, but even at $7,100 he's underpriced relative to what he's done with Justin Herbert as the starter. Apart from the game he left early with an injury, Allen has put up double-digit targets and 14.2 or more PPR points every time he's played with the rookie.

Honorable Mentions: RB Aaron Jones, GB vs. JAX ($7,100); WR Terry McLaurin, WAS at DET ($6,800)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players carrying high ownership without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. Recency bias is often to blame, but in some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. BUF ($7,700)

Playing in a game with the top over/under of the weeks, Hopkins figures to be in a good number of lineups, even though he's expensive and hasn't been quite as productive of late. He may also face shadow coverage from Tre'Davious White, though the Bills' top cornerback is dealing with an ankle injury. Either way, Hopkins is still priced like the Davante-Adams-level target hog we saw in September, while the reality of the Arizona offense has been a little more balanced over the past month. Chase Edmonds is the better value from the Cardinals, unless Kenyan Drake (ankle) is able to play.

Other Fades: RB James Conner, PIT vs. CIN ($6,900); RB Josh Jacobs, LV vs. DEN ($6,500)

The SMASH Spot

Volume may be king, but we still need to account for efficiency, pinpointing situations that are likely to lead to impressive production in terms of YPA, YPC or YPT.

• TE Dallas Goedert vs. NYG ($4,200)

Goedert was targeted just once in his return to action Week 8, but he did play 84 percent of snaps in the 23-9 win over Dallas, handling a three-down role with Zach Ertz (ankle) unavailable. Goedert got nine and eight targets in his two other healthy games (Weeks 1-2) this season, and that was with Ertz in the lineup and drawing seven targets of his own in both games. Another week without Ertz should put Goedert somewhere in the range of 5-to-10 targets, with solid odds to score a touchdown.

Honorable Mention: RB Antonio Gibson, WAS at DET ($5,600); WR John Brown, BUF at ARZ ($5,400)

The Bargain Bin

QB Carson Wentz at NYG ($5,900)

QB Joe Burrow at PIT ($5,700)

QB Drew Lock at LV ($5,500)

RB J.D. McKissic vs. SEA ($4,700)

RB Mike Davis vs. TB ($4,000)

WR A.J. Green at PIT ($4,400)

WR Jalen Reagor at NYG ($4,200)

WR Josh Reynolds vs. SEA ($3,500)

WR Keelan Cole at GB ($3,400)

TE Logan Thomas at DET ($3,300)

TE Tyler Eifert at GB ($2,700)

D/ST Lions vs. WAS ($2,600)

D/ST Raiders vs. DEN ($2,500)

Injury Situations

The "Sunday Scramble" doesn't need to be stressful. We can plan our response ahead of time for various scenarios that could emerge once inactive lists are released.

•  RB Kenyan Drake vs. BUF

Chase Edmonds ($6,300) didn't come through for us last week, but the workload was everything we imagined, and he's now $500 cheaper despite getting 28 touches last week. He'll be a top play for both tournaments and cash games if Drake is out for another week with the ankle injury.

• RB Darrell Henderson vs. SEA

Henderon's thigh/quad injury doesn't sound serious, but it is at least worth a mention. Malcolm Brown ($4,700) will be a solid DFS play if Henderson is inactive, as the Rams appear hesitant to deploy Cam Akers ($4,200) in a significant role. Brown is already preferred for third downs and the hurry-up offense.

• RB Chris Carson at LAR

DeeJay Dallas ($5,100) played only 31 percent of snaps in last week's loss to Buffalo, losing some early down work to Alex Collins (two carries) and some passing-down/second-half work to Travis Homer (six carries, three targets). However, that was partially a product of game script, and Dallas could still be up around 15 carries if Carson is out for another game and the Seahawks put up more of a fight. I'll probably just avoid the situation, but it's worth acknowledging nonetheless.

Weather Watch

Wind is expected to be in issue and Cleveland and Green Bay, potentially hitting 25-30 miles per hours. That's looked like more and more of a problem as the week has moved along, creating some concerns for Davante Adams, Brandin Cooks and others. There's also some potential for wind to impact Pittsburgh, but it appears it should stay below 20 mph. Looking on the bright side, none of the Sunday games is likely to be affected by precipitation.

The Toilet Bowl

I'm now running a weekly DraftKings contest where the goal is to have the LOWEST point total rather than the highest.

There's no way to make a paid contest of this sort on DK, but I can promise that the winner each week will get a shoutout in the following week's tournament guide. And if anyone manages to win the contest in two different weeks this season, I'll make a $50 donation to the charity of their choice (or to their venmo account).

Last week's winner was DK user zbrown, who put together a lovely lineup that managed to score only 71.48 points having any zeroes (a crucial aspect of this challenge — read the rules below for more details). Anyway, here's our winning lineup from the legendary zbrown:

And here are the rules for the contest:

1. All lineups must use at least $49,500 of the salary cap.
2. No using players from the New York Jets, including the D/ST. Automatic DQ for a violation.
3. Any player with zero points automatically adds 3x of their salary to your point total. So you can put an injured player who costs $7,500 in your lineup, but then we're adding 22.5 points to your final score. The same goes for players who aren't injured but nonetheless finish with zero points. However, negative scores are allowed — in fact, they're encouraged — free of any penalty.

OK, here's the link: https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/96422073

Good Luck!