This article is part of our DFS Tournament Guide series.
This guide focuses strictly on the main slate of Sunday afternoon games, with recommendations meant to be used for large-field, GPP tournaments. Player prices will only be mentioned for the two largest DFS sites, though much of what's discussed can be applied throughout the industry.
Point-Per-Dollar Value
Variance and low ownership are desirable in large DFS tournaments, but we still need a few building-block players that are strong bets to outperform their price tags even if they don't have the highest ceilings and/or are likely to be popular plays. We'll also want to keep a close eye on injury situations with potential to create value for teammates (this is covered at the bottom of the page).
RB James Conner, ATL (vs. TB), ($7,500 DK; $8,000 FD)
I've gone back-and-forth on Conner throughout the season, never quite sold on his talent but unable to deny the upside that comes with a huge workload in a high-powered offense. This is one of the weeks when everything lines up in his favor, with the Steelers favored by eight points in a home game against a Browns team that's giving up 4.5 yards per carry and 135 rushing yards per game. Conner initially burst onto the scene during a Week 1 contest at Cleveland, taking 31 carries for 135 yards and five receptions for 57 yards. Averaging 17.2 carries and 4.3 catches per game, Conner ranks third among running backs with an 85 percent snap share.
WR Robert Woods, LAR (vs. GB), ($6,800 DK; $7,600 FD)
Woods finds himself in an ideal spot for WR1 production at a WR2 price, with his team carrying an implied total of 33 points for game Cooper Kupp (knee) is expected to miss. Kupp leaves behind an appealing mixture of slot snaps, overall target volume and red-zone work, giving Woods and Brandin Cooks a few different ways to benefit. Woods likely will get most of the slot work against rookie cornerback Jaire Alexander, creating a nice opportunity for double-digit targets and a trip to the end zone. Coach Sean McVay consistently favors his passing attack in close contests, so Woods could be in for a massive outing if the Green Bay offense has a good day.
Passing Stacks
Correlation plays are the centerpiece of any DFS tournament lineup, and this is usually where I start to focus on ceiling and ownership in addition to point-per-dollar projections. Not to say we can't also find value, but it's often worth a small sacrifice in that department to avoid the stacks that will crop up in a multitude of lineups. The ideal scenario allows us to match our QB with one of his primary targets as well as a pass catcher from the other team, hoping to capitalize on a tight, high-scoring affair in which both sides stay aggressive deep into the fourth quarter. With that mind, here are the games I'm focusing on for Sunday:
Packers at Rams
We wouldn't normally target a game with a spread of 9.5 points, but there's good reason to make an exception when Aaron Rodgers ($6,400 DK; $8,600 FD) is playing for the underdog in a game that has an over/under of 56.5 points. With Randall Cobb (hamstring) and Geronimo Allison both on track to return, Rodgers should have enough firepower to keep things reasonably close against a Rams team that's been good but not great on defense. That said, my preference is to load up on the other side of the game, hoping Rodgers can do just enough to keep Jared Goff ($6,000 DK; $8,500 FD), Woods and Brandin Cooks ($6,900 DK; $7,500 FD) busy throughout the second half.
The pricing on DraftKings is practically begging for a Goff-Woods stack, especially once we consider that Woods will spend a bunch of time working from the slot (read: heavy target volume). Kupp's injury gives us a nice argument for stacking Goff-Woods-Cooks, or perhaps replacing one of the wideouts with Todd Gurley ($9,800 DK, $11,000 FD). Davante Adams ($7,900 DK; $8,600 FD) is the obvious candidate to pile up points if the Packers keep the game close, but we can also consider cheaper alternatives in Jimmy Graham ($4,700 DK; $6,400 FD) and Randall Cobb ($4,900 DK; $6,100 FD).
Buccaneers at Bengals
This game comes in a tick below Packers-Rams with an over/under of 54.5, but the spread (3.5) is much closer and one of the teams (Tampa Bay) has little choice but to go pass-heavy every week. Jameis Winston ($6,000 DK; $7,800 FD) is an obvious value on both sites for a third straight week, though it's still difficult to identify a stacking partner from his deep group of pass-catchers. Mike Evans ($7,800 DK; $7,800 FD) and O.J. Howard ($3,900 DK; $5,800 FD) don't have the volume certainty we'd like to see at their respective prices, but both offer enough upside to justify a stack if you're set on Winston.
My personal preference is to avoid Andy Dalton ($6,200 DK; $7,800 FD), as there's a good chance his volume will be disappointing in a matchup that should allow the Bengals to succeed with a balanced approach. A.J. Green ($8,000 DK; $8,800 FD), Tyler Boyd ($6,700 DK; $6,800 FD) and C.J. Uzomah ($3,500 DK; $5,400 FD) are all reasonable options against a horrible Tampa Bay defense, with the pricing pointing toward Green on DraftKings and Boyd on FanDuel.
RB-Defense Pairing
While not nearly as important as quarterback-receiver combos, RB-Defense mini-stacks present another opportunity to take advantage of positive correlations in tournament lineups. We're generally looking for teams that are comfortably favored to win, preferably with a starting running back who dominates goal-line and clock-killing work.
Joe Mixon ($7,300 DK; $7,800 FD) + Bengals D/ST ($2,500 DK; $3,700 FD)
As much as a Bucs-Bengals passing stack makes sense, we should also consider the possibility Winston and Co. are simply overmatched by a better team. The Browns took the Bucs to overtime last week, and Tampa now has to play a second straight game without starting defensive tackle Gerald McCoy (calf) and starting defensive end Vinny Curry (ankle). We're talking about a defense that's shamefully bad even when healthy, leaving Mixon with a prime matchup while Giovani Bernard (knee) misses another game. The second-year back has logged 70 percent of offensive snaps in the five games he played this season, averaging 16.8 carries and 4.8 targets. A big game for Mixon likely would correlate with a large number of pass attempts for the mistake-prone Winston, giving Cincinnati's defense ample opportunity to pile up sacks and turnovers.
James Conner ($7,500 DK; $8,000 FD) + Steelers D/ST ($2,300 DK; $3,800 FD)
The argument for Conner is rock-solid, and yet the Pittsburgh defense might actually provide the better value in this stack, particularly with the inexplicably cheap price on DraftKings. The Steelers aren't a dominant defensive team by any means, but they do have an impressive pass rush with 22 sacks in six games, and Baker Mayfield has been taken down 17 times in four starts. Though he should have moderate success moving the ball, Mayfield will probably take a bunch of sacks and commit at least one or two turnovers along the way. Coming out of a bye week, the Steelers shouldn't have much trouble with the Browns.
David Johnson ($6,700 DK; $7,300 FD) + Cardinals D/ST ($3,200 DK; $3,400 FD)
We're now venturing into the bonus round for a third RB-defense pairing with potential to come up huge. Hard as it may be to have any confidence in Arizona, we can't ignore the combination of Johnson's workload and a struggling 49ers offense playing on the road. The woeful Cardinals are only one-point underdogs, facing a quarterback (C.J. Beathard) who has taken 14 sacks and thrown seven interceptions in four games. Johnson has been horribly inefficient as the centerpiece of a broken offense, but there is some hope for improvement with Byron Leftwich replacing Mike McCoy in the offensive coordinator job. Johnson's every-down role gives him a huge ceiling every week, even if we haven't yet seen it come to fruition. His 84 percent snap share for the season ranks
High-Priced Hero
TE Travis Kelce, KC (vs. DEN), ($6,800 DK; $7,300 FD)
With Zach Ertz and Rob Gronkowski (back/ankle) both missing from the main slate, Kelce is the only elite option at his position for matchup with a Broncos defense that's surrendered 9.9 yards per target to tight ends. Recent matchups with the Jets, Rams and Cardinals have brought down the average TE production against Denver, but we only need to look back to Week 4 when Kelce posted a 7-78-1 receiving line and Demetrius Harris chipped in 59 yards of his own. Kelce has caught 33 passes for 472 yards and three touchdowns in four games against Denver over the past three years, repeatedly taking advantage of a defense that struggles to cover the middle of the field.
Fading The Field
Every week we see at least one or two players carrying high ownership without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. Recency bias is often the motivating factor, as many DFSers subconsciously overestimate the predictive value of recent results.
WR Antonio Brown, PIT (vs. CLE), ($8,500 DK; $8,800 FD)
Brown figures to draw plenty of attention at the low end of his DFS price range, but I'd rather invest in the aforementioned Conner than any member of Pittsburgh's passing attack. The Cleveland defense has funneled most opponents toward rushing volume and production, ranking first in DVOA against the pass but 25th against the run. The examination also holds up under traditional stats, with the Browns allowing 4.5 yards per carry (20th) and 7.0 per pass attempt (fifth). We also have to worry about the possibility of reduced volume in a blowout victory, not to mention Brown's ugly 2018 mark of 6.6 yards per target.
The Bargain Bin
QB Matthew Stafford, DET (vs. SEA), ($5,600 DK; $7,300 FD)
RB Isaiah Crowell, NYJ (at CHI), ($3,700 DK; $6,000 FD)
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (at KC), ($5,200 DK; $6,500 FD)
RB Duke Johnson, CLE (at PIT), ($3,900 DK; $5,300 FD)
WR Jordy Nelson, OAK (vs. IND), ($4,700 DK; $5,300 FD)
WR Martavis Bryant, OAK (vs. IND), ($3,700 DK; $5,300 FD)
WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ (at CHI), ($4,300 DK; $4,700 FD)
TE C.J. Uzomah, CIN (vs. TB), ($3,500 DK; $5,400 FD)
TE Jeff Heuerman, DEN (at KC), ($2,600 DK; $4,600 FD)
Pricing Discrepancies Between FD and DK
My lineups look pretty similar on both sites this week, but we do have some obvious relative value on DraftKings with Goff, Cam Newton ($5,800), Todd Gurley ($9,800), Crowell, Kerryon Johnson ($5,300), Chris Carson ($4,300), Golden Tate ($6,000), Michael Crabtree ($4,800) and Demaryius Thomas ($4,900).
FanDuel's pricing leads me more toward Stafford, Dalton, Mixon, Tyreek Hill ($7,800), Jarvis Landry ($6,700), Nelson, Kearse and Boyd.
Injury Situations to Monitor
It's a quiet week for this part of the column, as Friday injury reports resolved most of the interesting situations. Mack ($5,400 DK; $6,700 FD) is one of the few true question marks, following a breakout performance in a blowout win over the Bills last week. He gets another favorable matchup this time around, heading to Oakland to face a disjointed Raiders team that's allowing 4.7 yards per carry. Nyheim Hines ($3,800 DK; $5,300) makes sense on PPR sites in the event of an absence, and Mack himself will be a nice option if he plays. His full participation in Friday's practice puts him on track to do just that, though the Colts still chose to list him as questionable.
Breida (ankle) returned to practice Friday as a limited participant, potentially setting up a game-time decision Sunday at Arizona. An absence would make Raheem Mostert interesting on DraftKings at $3,800, but I otherwise fail to see any reason for investment in this backfield. Breida is too expensive for a player that can't be trusted to make it through the game even if he's active.
Weather Watch
The forecasts don't look too interesting as of Friday evening, but we do need to keep track on the wind in Chicago for a game between the Jets and Bears. Of course, it's not exactly a contest that demands our attention in the first place, as the Bears are 7.5-point favorites in a game with an over/under of 44.
