This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
There is a misconception amongst sports fans - if you have a solid grasp on a sport you follow, you can win them money betting on the sport. If this were true, bookmakers would be out of business. The odds makers in Vegas are extremely sharp, meaning they usually aren't far off from the actual outcome of the game. Why is this important for DFS? Simply put, looking at Vegas over/under data can help you forecast how many points will be scored in a game. With this information available, you can break it down by how a team scores those projected point totals.
Picking the highest scoring total usually is a good strategy, but you need to expect other DFS players to be targeting those same games as well. Being contrarian will help you win tournaments, and hopefully here at RotoWire we can help you find those hidden gems.
In this weekly column I will focus on Vegas lines, which games to exploit and how to incorporate it in to your weekly DFS lineups. Just to put it out there, this isn't a "how to beat Vegas" article, this is simply how to incorporate spreads and totals in to your DFS lineups. This is a game of skill; we don't leave it up to chance or luck – unless it's Andrew.
New Orleans Saints (-3) Vs. Atlanta Falcons (51.5 O/U)
The first game I want to look at is New Orleans at Atlanta. This a trap game. What is a trap? A trap is when a line is too good to be true. The casual sports fan only remembers their last impression of a team. In this case the Falcons were awful last year, so the taking the Saints seems like easy money. The Falcons are simply undervalued. Yes, Atlanta's defense isn't great, but their offense can easily keep up with the Saints. Keep in mind that the Saints are not the same team on the road, and Atlanta was an elite home team just two seasons ago.
Recommendations
Brandon Cooks, WR, New Orleans – The Oregon State standout should fit right in to the Saints' pass-heavy offense. He is fairly priced across the industry. Cooks is strictly a tournament play, and I do not recommend him for cash games.
Kenny Stills, WR, New Orleans – Stills has the opportunity to be Drew Brees' top deep threat, similar to what Lance Moore was a few seasons ago. Stills has tremendous upside and could return a great value based on his price on most DFS sites.
Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons – Look for White to bounce back this season. He was riddle by injuries in 2013 and should be back to his old self. No risk, no reward.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) (43 O/U)
The books got this spread wrong. The Ravens defense isn't what it used to be, and Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, Giovani Bernard and company could be a sneaky DFS stack if you want to get cute. The total is too high as well since the Bengals defense should cause a lot of trouble for Joe Flacco.
Recommendations
Bengals D/ST - Ownership levels should be low and the Bengals could be the highest scoring D/ST of the week.
San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) Vs. Dallas Cowboys (51 O/U)
This game should be very popular. With two primetime teams going at it, I expect a lot of action on it DFS wise. The consensus seems to be that the Cowboys defense is one of the worst in the league, which will lead to high ownership of 49ers players. What about the depleted 49ers defense? No Aldon Smith, no Navarro Bowman. Simply put, the Cowboys offense is being ignored. Based on the information available, all signs point to this game being a shootout - it has the makings of the Broncos/Cowboys game from last season. While most DFS players will be on the 49ers side, the contrarian thing to do would be to focus on Cowboys players. One last note, the Cowboys rush defense is horrible, which makes Frank Gore rosterable. But I do have my worries about Gore's workload with Carlos Hyde now sharing the backfield.
Recommendations
Anquan Boldin, WR, San Francisco – If Michael Crabtree (calf) is out, Boldin's price is too good to pass up. Even if Crabtree does suit up, Boldin makes an excellent WR3. Keep an eye out for Crabtree's status.
Terrance Williams, WR, Dallas – Dez Bryant is obviously the clear cut WR1 for the Cowboys, so it is expected he will be the focus of the 49ers defense. Terrance Williams is their WR2, and could have a monster game here. Given his price, I would have no problem selecting him.
Indianapolis Colts Vs. Denver Broncos (-7.5) (55 O/U)
The highest total on the board this weekend, and it's justified. This game is going to be a full out spaghetti western shootout. Andrew Luck has value at his price tag, especially since I expect the Colts to be playing from behind. With a total this high and the public money on the over, it would be criminal not to recommend any one from this game.
Recommendations
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis – Hilton should be Luck's No. 1 target and his price on most sites is just above midrange for a wideout. I am all over him this week.
Dwayne Allen, TE, Indianapolis – At his price point, he is worth a shot. Use him in tournaments since the Broncos defense had it's struggles with tight ends.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver – With Wes Welker suspended Sanders gets the biggest bump. A lot of "experts" were high on Sanders before Welker's suspension, and this just adds fuel to the fire. Sanders is a solid WR2/3 for cap relief in cash games.
Other options
Here are a few more players to consider this week:
Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona – The plan is for him to get roughly 15-20 touches a game. He is a PPR threat, which makes him even more intriguing on sites that give a full point per reception. Ellington has massive upside and is one of my favorite options for RB2.
Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati – Dalton is often overlooked, yet he has great complimentary players that help him succeed. Dalton was a top-five DFS quarterback last season points wise and makes an excellent contrarian play this weekend.
Shane Vereen, RB, New England – Similar to Ellington, Vereen is a PPR threat. He has great hands and seems to be one of Brady's favorite targets. If Vereen stays healthy throughout the season, expect him to be mentioned often in DFS articles.
Being Week 1 of the NFL season, there are a lot of question marks throughout the league. Hopefully we will have more clarity in Week 2. Always remember to play it smart when you are entering contests. Don't go overboard with your bankroll - look at this like a long-term investment. Enjoy Week 1 of the NFL and good luck to all our readers.
