This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
The last three weeks I have written about the quarterback position, running backs, and wide receivers in how to approach them in GPPs. For the next three weeks, I will repeat this process but instead looking at "cash" games. Cash games are defined as "contests in which 50% of the field win".
For this series of articles, the site I am focusing on is DraftKings. DraftKings is a full-point PPR site, with a FLEX, no kickers, and +3 point bonuses for 300 passing yards and 100 rushing/receiving yards. The salary cap is $50,000 and the average cash game score in most weeks is around 150 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the players' score, dividing by his salary, and multiplying by 1000. For example, Sammie Coates was $3600 in Week 5 and scored 34.9 points. The multiplier calculation would be: (34.9/$3600)*1000=9.7x value.
So if we know that 150 points is the target and $50,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least 3x. The challenge in this is finding the most consistent players from week to week that will hit 3x value.
The last three weeks I have written about the quarterback position, running backs, and wide receivers in how to approach them in GPPs. For the next three weeks, I will repeat this process but instead looking at "cash" games. Cash games are defined as "contests in which 50% of the field win".
For this series of articles, the site I am focusing on is DraftKings. DraftKings is a full-point PPR site, with a FLEX, no kickers, and +3 point bonuses for 300 passing yards and 100 rushing/receiving yards. The salary cap is $50,000 and the average cash game score in most weeks is around 150 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the players' score, dividing by his salary, and multiplying by 1000. For example, Sammie Coates was $3600 in Week 5 and scored 34.9 points. The multiplier calculation would be: (34.9/$3600)*1000=9.7x value.
So if we know that 150 points is the target and $50,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least 3x. The challenge in this is finding the most consistent players from week to week that will hit 3x value. It is a balance between which positions to pay up for versus where you decide to take value. Often times, the matchups and/or pricing will dictate your weekly strategy.
Let's look at the running back position and build a system to cash game targets.
RB Stats (553 total through Sunday Week 9)
Average Score: 10.86
Average Salary: $4436
Average Value: 2.42
RB (Hit at least 3x – through Sunday Week 9)
Average Score: 20.32
Average Salary: $4621
Average Value: 4.46
Average Pct Hit Value: 177/553 = 32%
Salary Breakdown (# of times hit 3x or greater/total number of players)
$3000: 27/101 (27%)
$3100 - $3900: 39/163 (24%)
$4000 - $4900: 50/125 (40%)
$5000 - $5900: 25/67 (37%)
$6000 - $6900: 21/55 (38%)
$7000 - $8000: 14/41 (34%)
Week – (# of players to hit 3x or greater)
Week 1: 20
Week 2: 14
Week 3: 25
Week 4: 25
Week 5: 21
Week 6: 17
Week 7: 23
Week 8: 19
Week 9: 12
Average per week – 19.5
As you can see there are 18-23 running backs each week that hit 3x, so building a system to allow yourself a great shot at hitting them is key. What I found interesting is that it does not pay to go with the lower priced backs on DraftKings in cash games. The range of $4000-$6900 produced the highest percentage of cash game running backs versus the average. Note that the weekly average was much lower when several teams were on a bye.
Benchmarks:
Salary | Attempts | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Rec. | Rec. Yards | Rec. TD |
Average | 15 | 73 | 0.76 | 3.3 | 30 | 0.22 |
$3,000 | 8.7 | 44 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 23.3 | 0.15 |
$3100 - $3900 | 10.8 | 53 | 0.54 | 3.5 | 32.3 | 0.1 |
$4000 - $4900 | 15 | 77 | 0.92 | 3 | 29 | 0.26 |
$5000 - $5900 | 18 | 82 | 0.72 | 3.8 | 35 | 0.5 |
$6000 - $6900 | 22 | 104 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 27 | 0.24 |
$7000 - $8000 | 24 | 112 | 0.78 | 4.6 | 33 | 0.86 |
Additional Statistics:
- The production needed from a back to hit value changes at the $4000 mark with a significant increase in carries, yards, and rushing touchdowns.
- There was very little difference in receptions and yards needed as you go up the salary tiers.
- Once you hit $6000, hitting the three-point bonus for 100 yards is key.
- The following players have hit 3x value at least four times:
- DeMarco Murray (7), Melvin Gordon (7), Frank Gore (6), Isaiah Crowell (5), LeGarrette Blount (5), Carlos Hyde, David Johnson, Chris Thompson, Duke Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Jordan Howard, LeSeand
- The following teams have allowed the most running backs to hit 3x value:
- 49ers (10), Falcons (9), Browns (8), Saints (8), Chiefs (8), Bengals (7), Broncos (7), Texans (7), Colts (7)
Running Backs (Week 1-9 before MNF)
For cash games, you want running backs with the combined highest average points per game and lowest standard deviation.
Player | Avg Score | Avg Value | Std Dev | Avg Salary |
23.49 | 3.07 | 7.46 | $ 7,657 | |
22.59 | 3.41 | 4.62 | $ 6,800 | |
21.70 | 3.06 | 6.89 | $ 7,163 | |
21.56 | 3.71 | 10.05 | $ 5,810 | |
21.38 | 2.78 | 5.43 | $ 7,720 | |
20.21 | 3.06 | 11.63 | $ 6,743 | |
18.88 | 3.13 | 11.05 | $ 6,300 | |
18.06 | 4.36 | 12.71 | $ 4,171 | |
17.43 | 3.76 | 9.11 | $ 4,743 | |
17.20 | 3.29 | 11.16 | $ 5,700 | |
17.08 | 3.58 | 9.51 | $ 4,867 | |
16.94 | 3.60 | 9.83 | $ 4,971 | |
16.50 | 3.59 | 7.90 | $ 4,738 | |
16.34 | 3.71 | 10.36 | $ 4,500 | |
16.17 | 3.70 | 11.48 | $ 4,586 | |
16.11 | 2.76 | 8.66 | $ 6,000 | |
15.83 | 2.84 | 7.87 | $ 5,729 | |
15.69 | 3.16 | 4.03 | $ 5,056 | |
15.43 | 3.17 | 10.90 | $ 5,725 | |
15.26 | 2.26 | 9.42 | $ 6,700 | |
14.58 | 2.24 | 7.78 | $ 6,750 | |
14.04 | 3.32 | 7.57 | $ 4,300 | |
13.58 | 2.98 | 7.26 | $ 4,625 | |
13.55 | 2.70 | 13.36 | $ 5,100 | |
13.40 | 2.75 | 13.58 | $ 4,900 | |
13.31 | 2.01 | 5.22 | $ 6,800 | |
13.12 | 1.88 | 14.78 | $ 6,183 | |
12.64 | 3.34 | 8.59 | $ 3,820 | |
12.20 | 3.01 | 9.54 | $ 4,175 | |
11.95 | 4.00 | 3.46 | $ 3,000 | |
11.95 | 2.53 | 9.12 | $ 4,825 | |
11.90 | 2.80 | 8.90 | $ 4,329 | |
11.74 | 2.34 | 9.73 | $ 5,140 |
