DFS Football 101: Important Tips for New Players, Round 7

DFS Football 101: Important Tips for New Players, Round 7

This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.

I'm really loving writing another article in this series that is focused on helping new players improve their DFS game. It has become my favorite piece of the week and I could write 10 of these if RotoWire needed them!

So far I have written about both quarterbacks and running backs regarding how to approach each position in GPPs. Now that we have seven weeks in the book, I wanted to look back on the data and show you how to find those "GPP" or tournament plays at the wide receiver position that you need to finish in first place.

For this series of articles, the site I am focusing on is DraftKings. DraftKings is a full-point PPR site, with a FLEX, no kickers, and +3 point bonuses for 300 passing yards and 100 rushing/receiving yards. The salary cap is $50,000 and the average first place score in most large field tournaments is around 200-250 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the player's score, dividing by his salary, and multiplying by 1000. For example, Sammie Coates was $3600 in Week 5 and scored 34.9 points. The multiplier calculation would be (34.9/$3600)*1000=9.7x value.

So if we know that 200-250 points is the target and $50,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least 4x. The challenge in this is on the higher-priced players

I'm really loving writing another article in this series that is focused on helping new players improve their DFS game. It has become my favorite piece of the week and I could write 10 of these if RotoWire needed them!

So far I have written about both quarterbacks and running backs regarding how to approach each position in GPPs. Now that we have seven weeks in the book, I wanted to look back on the data and show you how to find those "GPP" or tournament plays at the wide receiver position that you need to finish in first place.

For this series of articles, the site I am focusing on is DraftKings. DraftKings is a full-point PPR site, with a FLEX, no kickers, and +3 point bonuses for 300 passing yards and 100 rushing/receiving yards. The salary cap is $50,000 and the average first place score in most large field tournaments is around 200-250 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the player's score, dividing by his salary, and multiplying by 1000. For example, Sammie Coates was $3600 in Week 5 and scored 34.9 points. The multiplier calculation would be (34.9/$3600)*1000=9.7x value.

So if we know that 200-250 points is the target and $50,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least 4x. The challenge in this is on the higher-priced players it is very hard to achieve 4x or greater because there are only so many points to be scored. On the flip side, take a $3,000 player. They only have to score 12-15 points to achieve 4-5x. In this case, is that enough to win a tournament? Often times it is not. So you really need to find a player who can hit for more value in the 6-8x range at that price. This would also allow you to take a 3x-4x player that has more of floor vs. ceiling.

Let's look at the wide receiver position and build a system to tournament targets:

WR Stats (739 total through Sunday Week 7)
Average Score: 10.56
Average Salary: $4615
Average Value: 2.35

RB (Hit at least 4x – 123 through Sunday Week 7)
Average Score: 23.00
Average Salary: $4343
Average Value: 5.42
Average Percent That Hit Value: 16%

Salary Breakdown (# of times hit 4x or greater/total number of players)
$3000: 27/183 (15%)
$3100 - $3900: 41/196 (21%)
$4000 - $4900: 24/122 (20%)
$5000 - $5900: 7/59 (12%)
$6000 - $6900: 12/72 (17%)
$7000 - $7900: 7/65 (11%)
$8000 - $8900: 3/26 (12%)
$9000 - $10,000: 1/16 (6%)

You can see from this data above that wide receivers priced in the $3100-$4900 range have the higher success rate of hitting at least 4x value.

Week – (# of players to hit 4x or greater)
Week 1: 17
Week 2: 21
Week 3: 16
Week 4: 18
Week 5: 16
Week 6: 16
Week 7: 18

Average per week: 17.4

As you can see, there are only 16 to 18 wide receivers each week that hit 4x and you have to start 4, so building a system to allow yourself a great shot at hitting them is key. This is also noting that you must play two running backs and most often you are playing a running back in the FLEX position.


  • The following teams have allowed at least two wide receivers to hit 6x value:
    • Cardinals, Bears, Cowboys, Lions, Jaguars, Rams, Dolphins, Jets, Raiders

  • The following teams have allowed at least four wide receivers to hit 4x value:
    • Browns – 8; Patriots, Bears – 7; Bills, Giants, Jets, Rams, Raiders, 49ers – 5

  • The following teams have allowed at least 20 points to wide receivers four or more times:
    • Raiders – 7; Titans – 6; Bears, Browns, Rams, Jets, Bucs – 5; Dolphins, Patriots, Chiefs, 49ers – 4

  • The following teams have allowed at least 30 points to wide receivers at least two times:
    • Ravens – 3; Panthers, Bears, Browns, Lions, Packers, Rams, Dolphins, Jets, Raiders, Chargers, 49ers - 2

  • The following teams have allowed a wide receiver to hit 4x value two times or less:
    • Broncos – 0; Seahawks, Redskins – 1; Colts, Chiefs, Vikings, Eagles – 2

  • The following teams have allowed at least 20 points to wide receivers two times or less:
    • Vikings – 0; Broncos, Texans, Eagles, Steelers, Seahawks – 1; Cardinals, Bills, Cowboys - 2

  • One team has allowed over 100 total yards and least two touchdowns on three occasions: 49ers

  • The following wide receivers have at least three games of hitting 4x value:

  • The following players have at least three games over 20 points or more this season:

Benchmarks:

 

Rec

Rec Yards

Rec TD

Average

6.2

96.2

1.2

$3,000

4.8

66.5

1.0

$3100-$3900

5.5

81.1

1.1

$4000-$4900

6.7

102.9

1.2

$5000-$5900

8.2

113.2

1.0

$6000-$6900

7.6

125.5

1.6

$7000-$7900

7.5

138.8

1.2

$8000-$8900

10

191.6

1.3


  • Wide receivers at the $3000 price need to get 65 total yards with at least one touchdown
  • When you go to the $4000-$4900 range, the average yards jumps from 81.1 to 102.9 so there is a much greater emphasis on hitting the 100-yard bonus.
  • For $6000 and greater, there is more emphasis on getting at least 1.6 touchdowns
  • 81% of the time the WR scored at least one touchdown
  • 18% of the time the WR scored at least two touchdowns
  • 44% of the time the WR had at least 100 receiving yards
  • Out of the 35 WRs that did not score a touchdown, their salaries ranged from $3000-$6400
    • 67% had at least 7 receptions
    • 46% had at least 100 receiving yards

Additional statistics:

Wide Receivers (Week 1-7 before MNF)


Player

Average Score

Average Salary

Average Value

Julio Jones

22.71

$9,286

2.49

Mike Evans

22.25

$7,233

3.05

A.J. Green

22.07

$8,571

2.59

Antonio Brown

21.16

$9,729

2.19

Ty Montgomery

21.00

$3,000

7.00

T.Y. Hilton

20.99

$7,300

2.91

Corey Coleman

19.65

$4,900

4.10

Larry Fitzgerald

19.10

$6,850

2.83

Greg Salas

18.90

$3,000

6.30

Brandin Cooks

18.75

$7,683

2.43

Michael Crabtree

18.01

$6,343

2.87

Odell Beckham Jr.

18.00

$8,971

2.00

Marvin Jones

17.94

$6,486

2.89

Amari Cooper

17.20

$7,529

2.33

Jarvis Landry

16.89

$6,643

2.59

Michael Thomas

16.78

$4,167

3.98

Willie Snead

16.26

$5,900

3.00

Randall Cobb

16.02

$6,717

2.55

Kelvin Benjamin

15.90

$6,983

2.35

Davante Adams

15.83

$4,050

3.98

Stefon Diggs

15.56

$5,420

3.02

Mike Wallace

15.56

$5,029

3.13

Terrelle Pryor

15.55

$4,614

3.71

Will Fuller

15.34

$4,760

3.48

Doug Baldwin

15.27

$6,417

2.38

Emmanuel Sanders

15.19

$6,414

2.41

Jordy Nelson

15.18

$7,717

1.98

Cole Beasley

15.12

$3,700

4.08

DeAndre Hopkins

14.57

$8,283

1.77

Eric Decker

14.47

$6,667

2.20

Demaryius Thomas

14.44

$6,714

2.19

Kenny Britt

14.36

$3,871

3.77

Brandon Marshall

14.20

$7,383

1.95

Eddie Royal

13.97

$3,650

3.92

Jamison Crowder

13.74

$4,100

3.39

Cameron Meredith

13.66

$3,560

4.06

Tyrell Williams

13.43

$4,063

3.26

Steve Smith Sr.

13.40

$4,620

3.00

Quincy Enunwa

12.95

$4,433

2.98

Brandon LaFell

12.57

$3,543

3.60

Jordan Matthews

12.57

$6,633

1.87

Travis Benjamin

12.51

$5,450

2.43

Alshon Jeffery

12.43

$7,557

1.63

Keenan Allen

12.30

$8,000

1.50

Allen Robinson

12.27

$7,783

1.58

Tavon Austin

12.01

$4,229

2.93

Anquan Boldin

11.89

$4,186

2.87

Dez Bryant

11.67

$8,433

1.37

Golden Tate

11.64

$5,714

2.29

Marquise Goodwin

11.44

$3,000

3.80

Sterling Shepard

11.34

$5,371

2.14

Terrance Williams

11.22

$3,460

3.26

Jeremy Kerley

11.16

$3,500

3.27

Russell Shepard

11.15

$3,000

3.70

Sammie Coates

11.14

$4,029

3.04

Jeremy Maclin

11.03

$6,300

1.75

Marqise Lee

10.95

$3,100

3.52

Cordarrelle Patterson

10.78

$3,050

3.53

Allen Hurns

10.75

$5,150

2.08

Adam Thielen

10.57

$3,217

3.32

Brian Quick

10.53

$3,200

3.36

DeSean Jackson

10.40

$5,986

1.73

Julian Edelman

10.29

$6,357

1.63

DeVante Parker

10.25

$4,900

2.12

Donte Moncrief

10.15

$6,200

1.70

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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