This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
I'm really loving writing another article in this series that is focused on helping new players improve their DFS game. It has become my favorite piece of the week and I could write 10 of these if RotoWire needed them!
Over the last several weeks, I have written about the quarterback position, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and defense/special teams in how to approach them in GPPs and Cash games on DraftKings. While most of the positions carry over to FanDuel, the running back and wide receiver positions are different because of the 0.5 point per reception on FanDuel vs. one point per reception on DraftKings. Also, DraftKings has a three-point bonus for 100 yards rushing or receiving which puts a higher emphasis on the elite players who get a bigger workload.
As we shift to FanDuel, there is more emphasis on total yards and touchdowns than receptions. The salary cap is $60,000 and the average cash game score most weeks is around 120 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the players' score, dividing by the salary, and multiplying by 1000. For example, Rob Kelley was $5400 in Week 11 and scored 31.7 points. The multiplier calculation would be (31.7/$5400)*1000=5.9x value.
So if we know that 120 points is the target and $60,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least
I'm really loving writing another article in this series that is focused on helping new players improve their DFS game. It has become my favorite piece of the week and I could write 10 of these if RotoWire needed them!
Over the last several weeks, I have written about the quarterback position, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and defense/special teams in how to approach them in GPPs and Cash games on DraftKings. While most of the positions carry over to FanDuel, the running back and wide receiver positions are different because of the 0.5 point per reception on FanDuel vs. one point per reception on DraftKings. Also, DraftKings has a three-point bonus for 100 yards rushing or receiving which puts a higher emphasis on the elite players who get a bigger workload.
As we shift to FanDuel, there is more emphasis on total yards and touchdowns than receptions. The salary cap is $60,000 and the average cash game score most weeks is around 120 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the players' score, dividing by the salary, and multiplying by 1000. For example, Rob Kelley was $5400 in Week 11 and scored 31.7 points. The multiplier calculation would be (31.7/$5400)*1000=5.9x value.
So if we know that 120 points is the target and $60,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least 2x. The challenge in this is finding the most consistent players from week to week that will hit 2x value. It is a balance between which positions to pay up for versus where to take value. Often times the matchups and pricing will dictate your weekly strategy.
Let's look at the running back position and build a system for cash game targets.
RB Stats (758 total through Week 13)
Average Score – 9.7
Average Salary - $5939
Average Value – 1.56
RB (Hit at least 2x – 231 through Week 13)
Average Score: 18.7
Average Salary: $6373
Average Value: 2.93
Average Pct Hit Value: 30%
RB (Hit at least 2x + 15 points – 147/758) 20%
Week – (# of players to hit 2x or greater)
Week 1: 20
Week 2: 15
Week 3: 23
Week 4: 22
Week 5: 18
Week 6: 15
Week 7: 24
Week 8: 22
Week 9: 12
Week 10: 13
Week 11: 17
Week 12: 12
Week 13: 18
Weekly Average: 18
Salary Range (Number hit 2x/Total Number, Percent)
$4500-$4900 = 33/197 (16%)
$5000-$5900 = 63/234 (27%)
$6000-$6900 = 69/166 (41%)
$7000-$7900 = 35/105 (33%)
$8000-$8900 = 23/44 (52%)
$9000-$9500 = 8/11 (73%)
Spending up for the top tier running backs has paid off this year. My personal strategy has been trying to get in David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, or DeMarco Murray every week if there is value at the wide receiver position that allows for it. Some of the secondary running backs that emerged have also been great in cash like Melvin Gordon and LeSean McCoy.
It can be very tempting to drop down and take a backup running back who is now in a starting role at a reduced price like Spencer Ware, Jordan Howard or Jay Ajayi, but while they have had a few great games of hitting huge value, those are more tournament/GPP plays because they don't provide the consistency of the elite four.
If you just took the top four I mentioned above as a group, here are the statistics:
Avg Salary = $8465
Avg Score = 21.1
Avg Value = 2.5
21/43 scored at least 20 points = close to 50%
35/43 scored at least 15 points = 81%
31/43 hit at least 2x value = 72%
None of them scored less than 10 points in a given week.
Additional Statistics:
- A top 12 running back (points per game) averages 18 points per game
- The 13th to 24th running back (RB2) averages 13 points per game
- The 25th to 36th running back (RB3) averages 10 points per game
Additional Team Statistics:
- The following teams have allowed the most opposing running backs to score at least 15 points and hit 2x value:
- 49ers – 10
- Falcons, Colts, Raiders – 7
- Browns, Texans, Jaguars, Rams, Saints – 6
- The following teams have allowed the fewest opposing running backs to score at least 15 points and hit 2x value:
- Cowboys, Lions – 1
- Ravens, Bears, Giants, Chargers, Seahawks, Bucs, Titans – 3
- Cardinals, Vikings, Jets. Eagles, Steelers, Redskins – 4
