DFS Football 101: Important Tips for New Players, Round 11

DFS Football 101: Important Tips for New Players, Round 11

This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.

I'm really loving writing another article in this series that is focused on helping new players improve their DFS game. It has become my favorite piece of the week and I could write 10 of these if RotoWire needed them!

Over the last six weeks, I have written about the quarterback position, running backs, and wide receivers in how to approach them in GPPs and Cash games. For the next two weeks, I will repeat this process looking at the tight end position.

For this series of articles, the site I am focusing on is DraftKings. DraftKings is a full-point PPR site, with a FLEX, no kickers, and three-point bonuses for 300 passing yards and 100 rushing/receiving yards. The salary cap is $50,000 and the average cash game score in most weeks is around 150 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the players' score, dividing by the salary, and multiplying by 1000. For example, Sammie Coates was $3600 in Week 5 and scored 34.9 points. The multiplier calculation would be (34.9/$3600)*1000=9.7x value.

So if we know that 150 points is the target and $50,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least 3x. The challenge in this is finding the most consistent players from week to week that will hit 3x value. It is a balance between what positions to pay up

I'm really loving writing another article in this series that is focused on helping new players improve their DFS game. It has become my favorite piece of the week and I could write 10 of these if RotoWire needed them!

Over the last six weeks, I have written about the quarterback position, running backs, and wide receivers in how to approach them in GPPs and Cash games. For the next two weeks, I will repeat this process looking at the tight end position.

For this series of articles, the site I am focusing on is DraftKings. DraftKings is a full-point PPR site, with a FLEX, no kickers, and three-point bonuses for 300 passing yards and 100 rushing/receiving yards. The salary cap is $50,000 and the average cash game score in most weeks is around 150 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the players' score, dividing by the salary, and multiplying by 1000. For example, Sammie Coates was $3600 in Week 5 and scored 34.9 points. The multiplier calculation would be (34.9/$3600)*1000=9.7x value.

So if we know that 150 points is the target and $50,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least 3x. The challenge in this is finding the most consistent players from week to week that will hit 3x value. It is a balance between what positions to pay up for versus where you decide to take value. Often times the matchups and pricing will dictate your weekly strategy.

Let's look at the tight end position and build a system to cash game targets.

TE Stats (445 total through Week 11)
Average Score: 8.8
Average Salary: $3285
Average Value: 2.7

TE (Hit at least 3x – 166 through Week 11)
Average Score: 14.7
Average Salary: $3189
Average Value: 4.6
Average Pct Hit Value: 37%

If you look at this chart below, the sweet spot to find value is between $4000-$4900. But you can also find value pretty much anywhere between $2600-$3900. It does not make sense to pay up at the tight end position on DraftKings because the salary floor starts at $2500 which is much lower than other positions.

SALARY RANGEAVG SCOREAVG SALARYAVG VALUE# 3XTOTAL% HIT
$2,5006.6 $ 2,500 2.665314836%
$2600-$29007.9$ 2,754 2.87409343%
$3000-$39009.6 $ 3,400 2.844711441%
$4000-$490012.1$ 4,3752.74214448%
$5000-$590012$ 5,4572.1732114%
$6000-$700015.1$ 6,5472.3151926%

Week – (# of players to hit 3x or greater)
Week 1: 12
Week 2: 17
Week 3: 17
Week 4: 18
Week 5: 14
Week 6: 16
Week 7: 9
Week 8: 15
Week 9: 18
Week 10: 20
Week 11: 10

Average per week: 15

As you can see the amount of wide receivers that hit 3x each week is around 15.

Additional Statistics:

Tight Ends (Week 1-11)

For cash games, you want the tight ends with the combined highest-average points per game and lowest standard deviation.

PlayerAvg. SalaryAvg. ScoreAvg. ValueStd. DevGames Played

Rob Gronkowski

$ 6,800

17.67

2.58

10.88

6

Greg Olsen

$ 6,090

15.45

2.57

8.61

10

Jordan Reed

$ 6,350

15.06

2.40

7.58

8

Jimmy Graham

$ 4,740

14.09

3.17

9.42

10

Delanie Walker

$ 4,870

14.00

2.96

8.58

10

Travis Kelce

$ 5,030

13.19

2.66

7.13

10

Eric Ebron

$ 3,571

13.17

3.74

3.37

7

Hunter Henry

$ 3,175

12.48

4.08

7.00

8

C.J. Fiedorowicz

$ 2,717

12.47

4.77

5.41

6

Martellus Bennett

$ 3,980

12.44

3.25

10.53

10

Tyler Eifert

$ 4,775

12.35

2.73

11.44

4

Zach Miller

$ 3,390

11.96

3.71

6.86

10

Jason Witten

$ 4,040

11.60

2.95

7.26

10

Kyle Rudolph

$ 3,470

10.94

3.27

5.79

10

Cameron Brate

$ 3,040

10.63

3.56

6.83

10

Vernon Davis

$ 2,657

10.46

3.87

5.32

7

Antonio Gates

$ 3,489

10.18

3.02

5.42

9

Coby Fleener

$ 3,610

10.04

2.91

8.87

10

Jack Doyle

$ 2,800

9.96

3.76

7.36

10

Austin Hooper

$ 2,620

9.42

3.74

4.55

5

Zach Ertz

$ 3,650

9.34

2.59

5.65

8

Vance McDonald

$ 2,750

9.28

3.35

5.56

8

Gary Barnidge

$ 3,500

9.27

2.67

3.83

10

Dennis Pitta

$ 3,650

9.25

2.69

5.32

10

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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