Beating the Book: Vikings Win, Lions Cover + Full NFL Week 17 ATS Picks

Welcome to the Week 17 edition of Beating the Book!

With only two weeks remaining in the regular season, we're looking to finish the year on a high note. Week 16 was a roller coaster, to put it lightly. When the dust settled, we came out with a .500 mark ATS, but it'll go down as a disappointment in hindsight, as we started the week hot before losing the final four games of the week.

Our streak of hitting best bets also came to an end thanks to the Bills, who were lucky to escape with a straight-up win against the lowly Chargers on Saturday night. I'd like to say that one felt like a trap, but it really didn't – I loved the Bills in that spot and they simply didn't show up, so that's on me. We'll be better this week.

After a hectic holiday schedule, the Week 17 slate is a bit more traditional, though we don't get a Monday night game on New Year's Day. Instead, we're presented with a loaded Sunday slate featuring 10 games in the early window, headlined by a Dolphins-Ravens showdown in Baltimore. As is customary late in the season, we do have a Saturday game, and it's one of the best matchups of the week between Detroit and Dallas with NFC playoff seeding on the line.

You can find my thoughts on that game, as well as the entire Week 15 slate, below. As is the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 8-8 ATS; 11-5 SU; best bet lost (BUF -11.5)

On the season: 116-117-7 ATS, 153-87 SU; 11-5 best bet

Best calls of Week 16:

• This feels like one of those extremely stoppable force vs. extremely movable object type of games that I don't want to touch. I do give a slight lean toward Washington's ability to move the ball, but this could be the rare spot for the Jets to generate consistent offense of their own. Fittingly, let's split the difference and go with the Jets to win outright but Washington to cover.
• I think Detroit could be favored by another point or two against a mistake-prone quarterback in Nick Mullens. Minnesota's ability to run on a shaky Detroit defense does concern me, but I like the Lions to buckle down and take care of business in a comfortable, indoor setting.

Worst calls of Week 16:

• As you can probably guess, we're rolling with the Niners to win and cover at home. Lamar Jackson will present a unique challenge for the San Francisco defense, but with no Mark Andrews and no Keaton Mitchell, this is a difficult spot for Baltimore.
• The question is whether or not the Chargers get any sort of post-Staley bounce. It's possible, but even if that happens, is it enough to hang with the rejuvenated Bills, who are coming off of their best win of the season? We'll have to wait and see on the status of Keenan Allen, but I'm not sure he moves the needle enough for me with Easton Stick at quarterback. We're rolling with the Bills to cover and not thinking too hard about it.

Use the DraftKings Sportsbook Bonus Code for a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

Thursday Night Football

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-7.5)

We begin the week with a relatively unappealing matchup, albeit one with major implications for the Browns, who can clinch a playoff spot with a victory (or a variety of other results):

Cleveland is rolling right now, having won three straight on the arm of Joe Flacco, who turned in his third straight 300-plus-yard performance last week against Houston. Turnovers remain an issue for Cleveland (eight in the last three games), but the defense has also forced nine turnovers during this winning streak.

The Jets are a difficult team to evaluate after last week's blowout-turned-nail-biter against Washington, but going from facing the Commanders' defense to the Browns' is a massive step up in competition. The same can be said for Cleveland, however, after catching the banged-up Texans in a bad spot last week.

We'll roll with Flacco and the Browns to win and clinch, but the Jets can cover the spread.

The pick: Browns 20 – Jets 13

Saturday Game

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.0)

Fun Saturday game in the NFC between two teams that have clinched postseason berths but still have plenty to play for as far as seeding is concerned. A top-2 seed is technically still in play for Detroit, while Dallas is still alive for the division, though Philly's soft schedule the rest of the way will likely push them to another NFC East crown.

Playoff implications aside, this is a big game for Dallas, which needs to get right after two straight road letdowns in Buffalo and Miami. The Cowboys have been a significantly better team at home this season, and they're catching Detroit on its second consecutive road game.

While I do like this as a bounce-back spot for Dallas' offense to get back on track, I think Detroit can score with the Cowboys and keep this close. While the Cowboys held up fairly well against the Miami ground game last week, they allowed 266 rushing yards to Buffalo and have been leaky in that area for much of the season. Meanwhile, the Lions are up to seventh in rushing EPA, having reeled off eight straight games with at least 115 yards on the ground. In seven of those games, Detroit rushed for at least 140 yards, including last week's win over the Vikings.

The pick: Cowboys 33 – Lions 30

Sunday Early Games

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

The Ravens look to be peaking at the right time and have arguably the single best win of any team in the NFL after convincingly dismantling the 49ers on the road last week. Baltimore's resume is impressive, but it may very well need to win this game to solidify the 1-seed in the AFC. A win for Miami would, of course, give the Dolphins the head-to-head tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record.

This matchup could also go a long way toward deciding the MVP award, which still feels very much up for grabs with two weeks remaining. A Ravens victory could be the cherry on top of Lamar Jackson's case, while a Dolphins win behind a big day from Tua Tagovailoa could vault him near the top of the odds.

In some ways, this feels like an obvious letdown spot for the Ravens, who just played their biggest game of the season. But Miami is coming off of a difficult matchup of its own, having held on to beat the Cowboys in Week 16. Like Dallas, Miami is still searching for a signature road victory – its best win is probably… the Chargers in Week 1? – and this will be the Dolphins' final chance before the playoffs (Miami hosts Buffalo in Week 18).

Ultimately, I see this being a very close game between the NFL's most explosive offense and the league's best defense. I lean toward Baltimore to grind out a narrow win at home, but give me Miami to make it a field-goal game and secure the cover.

The pick: Ravens 27 – Dolphins 24

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-12.0)

The Patriots have been a confounding team for much of the season, and that certainly didn't change last week when they found a way to a straight-up win on the road in Denver. While the Pats are not a team you ever expect to lie down, that victory will likely push the Patriots outside of the top-three picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

While we're not as concerned about another SU win for New England this week, the Bills demonstrated in Week 16 that this is still a flawed team. Perhaps they caught the Chargers at the wrong time with a post-Staley bounce, but the Bills' inability to run on LA – and failure to get Stefon Diggs going, yet again – came as a shock to this author.

Returning home with a chance to all but lock up a playoff spot, the Bills should be plenty motivated to take it to the undermanned Pats. With that said, Buffalo is still working through some issues on offense, and the Pats' defense has allowed fewer than 85 yards on the ground in nine of its last 10 games.

Give me the Bills to win fairly comfortably, but New England can keep this to a 10-point game.

The pick: Bills 27 – Patriots 17

Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears (-3.0)

You're never going to believe this, but we once again missed on a Falcons game last week. I've written this before, but my advice is to go against whatever I predict will happen in any Falcons game.

Perhaps more than ever, that applies once again this week as Atlanta heads up to Chicago for what feels like a true 50/50 game. The Bears' defense should be able to slow down the Falcons' rushing attack, which racked up over 175 yards against the Colts last week. As we know, the Falcons are a much different team on the road, and conditions on Sunday should certainly favor the Bears.

Again, I highly advise going against this pick, but we're taking the Bears to win and cover the 3.0-point spread at home.

The pick: Bears 23 – Falcons 17

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-3.5)

While Tennessee's playoff hopes are dashed, the Texans are still very much alive for both the AFC South crown and a Wild Card spot. All signs point to C.J. Stroud returning to action for Houston, which will provide a massive boost after two weeks of the Case Keenum/occasional Davis Mills Experience.

Meanwhile, the Titans could get Will Levis back this week, which, to me, would be a lateral move from Ryan Tannehill, who didn't exactly light up the Seahawks in Week 16. The Texans' defense and offensive live have started to slip over the second half of the season, so this won't be a walk in the park for Houston, but it's tough to overstate how much of an upgrade Stroud brings to this offense.

If the Texans found a way to win by three in Nashville two weeks ago without Stroud, we have to like their chances to win and cover this game.

The pick: Texans 26 – Titans 20

Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-3.0)

For a while, it's felt like every Colts game is a 50/50, partially because they're constantly matching up with other teams in the NFL's middle-to-lower class. In the last five weeks, the Colts beat the Buccaneers, were blown out by Tennessee, blew out the Steelers and were blown out by Atlanta. What the hell are we supposed to take from those results? I have no idea.

That's been the theme of the Colts' season, and frankly it's what you'd expect when you're rolling Gardner Minshew out there on a weekly basis. Anything and everything is on the table.

While the Colts need a win to keep pace in the AFC South/Wild Card race, the Raiders are still alive and could pull even with Indy at 8-8 and notch a critical head-to-head tiebreaker with a victory. Vegas' offense has some major question marks after last week, but it's clear that Antonio Pierce has led an improbable resurgence on the defensive end.

There are a few worthy candidates on the slate, but we're going to go ahead and make this our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. Let me be clear: I do not recommend betting this game. 

The pick: Raiders 21 – Colts 20

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.0)

For the fourth week in a row, I find myself writing up a Jaguars game mid-week not knowing if Trevor Lawrence will be available. Recent history would suggest he'll try to push through this latest shoulder injury, but as of publication his status remains very much up in the air.

Obviously, Lawrence has not played well since the wheels started to fall off this team against Cincinnati in Week 13, and last week's loss to the Buccaneers felt like a true rock-bottom showing. The Jags have committed 10 turnovers over the last three games, while the defense – which led the NFL in takeaways midway through the year – has forced only seven of its own over the last seven weeks.

At some point, the bleeding has to stop for Jacksonville, but this is a team with issues that run much deeper than a banged-up quarterback who can't take care of the football. Over the last few weeks, the Jaguars have sunk to 31st in rushing EPA, averaging an NFL-low 3.6 yards per carry on the year. Jacksonville has now gone five straight games without rushing for 85 yards as a team, putting essentially the entire gameplan on the arm of Lawrence and a core of banged-up, underperforming pass-catchers. 

Meanwhile, defenses are having no trouble getting to Lawrence, leading to rushed throws and a complete lack of explosive plays.

On the Carolina side, I'm not sure we can take a whole lot from last week's narrow loss to Green Bay. Every team in the league feasts on Joe Barry, so it's no surprise Bryce Young had easily the his best game of the season in Week 16. While the Jags' defense is crumbling, they should be able to make this feel more like a normal 2023 Panthers game.

Assuming Lawrence once again pushes to play, we'll cautiously take the Jaguars to end their skid at home, but there's no way we're trusting this team to give a touchdown to anyone right now.

The pick: Jaguars 23 – Panthers 19

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (+6.0)

The Rams have only dropped one game since their Week 10 bye, and that overtime loss at Baltimore looks even better now than it did three weeks ago. A relatively soft stretch of schedule has helped, but LA seems to be peaking at the right time as the postseason approaches.

A win for the Rams wouldn't single-handedly clinch a playoff spot, but a win plus a Seahawks loss to Pittsburgh would get the job done. Either way, this is close to a must-win for LA with a matchup at San Francisco looming in Week 18. 

The Giants' season has been over for a while, but they've remained frisky, covering four of their last five, including Monday's 33-25 loss to the Eagles. This could be a dicey spot for the Rams traveling cross-country to play outdoors, but this has been an incredibly clean and balanced offense since Kyren Williams returned to action. Over the last five weeks, the Rams are averaging 161 yards per game on the ground and have topped 400 yards of total offense four times (the lone exception was a 399-yard output against Cleveland).

Barring a Matthew Stafford meltdown game, we'll trust the Rams to win and cover against a defense that ranks 25th in rushing EPA and has ceded at least 120 rushing yards in 12 of 15 games this season.

The pick: Rams 28 – Giants 21

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-11.0)

Monday's win over the Giants may not have been overly convincing – the Eagles did not deliver us a cover – but Philly accomplished its number one goal of simply ending its three-game slide. The Eagles have been looking forward to this late-season finish to the schedule, which includes two games against the Giants with this Cardinals matchup sandwiched in between.

Arizona is playing out the string on a rebuilding season and will likely be staring at a top-three pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. What they'll choose to do with that pick is a topic for another day, but for now the Cardinals will try to play spoiler as they end the season with Philadelphia and Seattle on the schedule.

Coming into the week, the Eagles are 7-8 ATS and are yet to cover as favorites of more than 5.5 points. They've also dropped four straight against the number, but I think this may be the week that skid ends. Arizona can do enough offensively to to make this a game early, but the Cardinals' defense is still an unmitigated disaster and just gave up 250 rushing yards to the Bears. 

It may not be pretty – Eagles games rarely are these days – but I like this as a confidence-building spot for the Eagles, who desperately need to find their mojo before the postseason.

The pick: Eagles 31 – Cardinals 17

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)

No team has been worse against the spread than the Saints this season (4-10-1), and they're one of three NFC South teams in the bottom four in that category. The Buccaneers are on the complete opposite end of the spectrum, carrying a 10-5 ATS mark into Week 17 thanks to covering three straight and seven of their last nine.

The Bucs have also won four consecutive games straight up – none more convincing than last week's demolition of the Jaguars, who they held to just 37 yards on the ground. To me, the Bucs are still a mid-level outfit, but they're picking up steam at the right time and are one win away from clinching the division and locking up the 4-seed in the NFC.

The Saints, meanwhile, have only covered two of their last seven (wins over CAR and NYG) and are still seeking a true quality win. This is the biggest game of the year for both sides, and it's tough to envision anything but a close, weird, frustrating result.

Cautiously, we'll side with the Buccaneers, who've shut down the Jags, Packers and Falcons' running games in consecutive weeks, while Baker Mayfield has strung together one of the best stretches of his career. But in a gotta-have-it divisional matchup, I wouldn't be surprised if the Saints cover or win straight up. This is pretty easily our runner-up for the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week.

The pick: Buccaneers 24 – Saints 21

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders (+13.0)

It's time for me to eat crow on the 49ers. They're still my Super Bowl favorite, but I could not have been more wrong about how Monday night's showdown with the Ravens would play out. Granted, I'm not sure many people had Brock Purdy will have a complete meltdown and toss four picks on their bingo card, but I'm guilty of falling way too hard into the San Francisco is impenetrable at home when healthy narrative. All credit goes to Baltimore for making me as wrong as I've been about just about any game this season (and there any many contenders).

Anyway, we turn the page to the task at hand, which is picking this Week 17 matchup against the reeling Commanders, who will turn to Jacoby Brissett after another brutal afternoon for Sam Howell, who completed 6-of-22 passes for 56 yards and two picks against Jets.

Brissett has long been one of the best, if not the best, backup quarterbacks in the league, so this should be a clear upgrade for a Commanders team that's gotten 285 yards and four picks out of Howell over the last three weeks combined. Realistically, though, this is a brutal spot for Brissett to step in against a Niners team that will be looking to take out some obvious frustrations. 

Don't be surprised if Washington is able to hang around early, but the Commanders' defense is far too brittle to slow down the Niners in this spot. Last week's loss also means San Francisco needs to win to hang on to the 1-seed in the NFC.

The pick: 49ers 35 – Commanders 21

Sunday Afternoon Games

Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)

Last week, we took the Bengals to win and cover 2.0 points against the Steelers and got Rudolphed. I even wrote that "if there was ever a time for a Mike Tomlin just finds a way to win, man type of game, this would be it." And yet, we went against Mike Tomlin.

We're presented with a similar situation this week as the Steelers attempt to stay alive in the AFC Wild Card picture. Clearly, the move from Mitch Trubisky to Mason Rudolph provided a spark, but is it sustainable? To be fair, George Pickens did much of the heavy lifting for the Steelers' passing game, ripping off an 86-yard touchdown on the second play of the game and following up with a 66-yarder early in the second half.

Jake Browning also handed Pittsburgh a horrendous pick in the end zone and two more that set the Steelers up with short fields and easy points. 

All in all, we're not necessarily changing our tune on the Steelers after one game in which everything went their way, but they have to be taken seriously with a potential postseason spot on the line.

On the other side, Seattle escaped Nashville with a win last week, and another victory in Week 17 would put the Seahawks in pole position for a Wild Card spot with Arizona looming on the schedule next week. I trust neither of these teams – I'll be clear about that. Rarely do the Seahawks do anything convincingly, and the Steelers have shown us roughly six different version of themselves this season.

What I will say is I'll be surprised if we don't get a very close, relatively low-scoring game. We'll side with Seattle to win outright at home, but the Steelers can cover in another backs-against-the-wall situation.

The pick: Seahawks 20 – Steelers 17

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.0)

Back in September, we had this game circled as a possible AFC Championship Game preview. Fast-forward to the present and it remains a huge game, just not for the reasons we expected. Cincinnati needs a win to keep its Wild Card dreams alive, while the Chiefs are in desperate need of anything positive on offense.

The gradual downfall of the Chiefs' passing game has been stunning to watch, and never has KC looked less competent than Monday afternoon against the Raiders. The Chiefs' own issues are one thing, but what made Monday's result so surreal was that Las Vegas didn't even play well.

It was not an instance of a middling team showing up and playing its best game of the season like the Raiders' Week 15 rout of the Chargers. The Raiders had 205 yards of total offense. They were 3-of-12 on third downs. They ran 22 fewer plays than the Chiefs. Aidan O'Connell did not have a single passing yard in the final three quarters. And yet, Kansas City trailed by two scores for most of the game and never truly threatened.

It's been this way for weeks now, but everything the Chiefs (attempt to) do on offense looks difficult. The emergence of Rashee Rice has been a nice story, but other than that, Kansas City looks confused, slow and completely out of sorts. With Patrick Mahomes at the helm, I will not write the Chiefs off. This is still a team that can beat anyone in a one-game setting. But as we saw last week, it's also a team that can lose to just about anyone.

I don't think that happens this week, at home against a rattled Jake Browning, but we're not taking the Chiefs as touchdown favorites.

The pick: Chiefs 24 – Bengals 20

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

The Broncos are technically still alive for a Wild Card spot, but they'll nonetheless make the change to Jarrett Stidham at quarterback this week as they enter "we literally can't afford you getting hurt" territory with Russell Wilson. Last week's ugly loss – at home! – to the Patriots was apparently the final straw for Denver, though dodging Wilson's contract guarantees are clearly the priority.

For much of the season, Sean Payton has likely been dying to get a look at Stidham after the Broncos signed him to a high-dollar backup QB contract this past summer. Stidham had his moments with the Raiders last season and may not be much of a downgrade from Wilson, though he brings more variance to the table than the ultra-conservative veteran.

On the other side, the Chargers continue to play out the string with Easton Stick, who nearly led LA to an upset over the Bills in Week 16. The Chargers' defense did most of the heavy lifting, however, and Stick could again be without Keenan Allen (heel), while Joshua Palmer is in concussion protocol. 

Chances are, we're looking at a sloppy matchup between two struggling offenses, but I'm inclined to take the Chargers to cover the spread. I'm intrigued to see if Denver opens up the playbook for Stidham, but that could lean to more harm than good.

The pick: Broncos 19 – Chargers 17

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

Monster game in the NFC and essentially a loser-goes-home matchup. The winner won't be guaranteed a Wild Card spot, but they'll be in prime position to scoreboard-watch Seattle, Los Angeles, Atlanta and/or New Orleans in Week 18. 

The Vikings fought hard against Detroit last week, putting up well over 400 yards of total offense, but they couldn't overcome four costly picks by Nick Mullens, including the game-loser late in the fourth. Meanwhile, Green Bay escaped Carolina with a victory, but it was anything but comfortable. The Packers did absolutely nothing to assuage concerns about their defense, allowing Bryce Young to throw for 298 yards while Carolina had easily its best offensive performance of the season. Joe Barry's crowning achievement, many are saying.

That poorly coached defense faces a tougher test this week, and the Packers will not have Jaire Alexander, who officially become the first player in NFL history to be suspended for self-appointing himself a captain. I expect Jordan Love and the Green Bay offense to put up points and force Minnesota to keep pace, but with the way this defense is playing, it could be back-to-back 400-yard weeks for Mullens. 

Give me the Vikings to win and cover at home.

The pick: Vikings 28 – Packers 24