Beating the Book: NFL Conference Championship Spread Picks

Welcome to the Conference Championship edition of Beating the Book!

For the second week in a row, we posted a .500 mark both against-the-spread and straight-up. Unlike Wild Card Weekend, however, our best bet went up in smoke, as the Lions not only failed to cover but lost outright at home by two scores.
We now move on to Championship Weekend, where the Eagles are holding as 6.5-point favorites against the Commanders, while the Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites over Buffalo.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Wild Card slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best call of Wild Card Weekend:

• Chiefs -8.5 vs. Texans: This was a classic Chiefs playoff win in every possible sense. Bad offense, good defense, controversial calls and, at the end of the afternoon, a cover.

Worst call of Wild Card Weekend:

• Lions -9.5 vs. Commanders: Just a total whiff here. I thought the Commanders' run would come to a screeching halt. Instead, Washington out-Lioned the Lions and took advantage of five (5) turnovers in an all-time letdown by Detroit.

Last week: 2-2 ATS; 2-2 SU; best bet lost (DET -9.5)

On the season: 145-133-4 ATS; 193-89 SU; 5-12-2 best bets

NFC Championship Game

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -6.5

Total: 47.5

For the second straight week, the Eagles took care of business at home, and yet the overall offensive performance still left something to be desired. Saquon Barkley did, of course, rush for over 200 yards by himself, and Jalen Hurts added a 44-yard rushing TD to kick off the scoring, but the Philly passing game managed just 128 yards on 20 attempts. Hurts was also sacked seven times by the Rams.

You could mount a strong argument that the Eagles haven't needed  to throw the ball to beat Los Angeles and Green Bay, but at some point Philly will need to weaponize Hurts' arm, along with A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. Going up against a Commanders team that just piled up 45 points on Detroit, this may be the week the Eagles find themselves in more of a shootout scenario.

On the other side, the Commanders are the ultimate house-money team. I thought the ride would come to an end last week – it did not – and while Philly has some distinct advantages, it's tough not to see Washington as a live dog. The Commanders' aggressive style will put pressure on the Eagles' defense, and Daniels' mobility is a significant change-up from facing Jordan Love and Matthew Stafford. 

Playing at home with the better and more experienced roster, I would be surprised if the Eagles don't win outright, but with the number moving up to 6.5, I think the backdoor will be open for a late-game Commanders cover.

The pick: Eagles 28 – Commanders 23

AFC Championship Game

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -1.5

Total: 47.5

This may be the most difficult pick of the entire season. And I do not say that lightly. We're not allowed to hand out a Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week in the Playoffs, but I would love to just sit back, relax and take this one in objectively.

To me, the Bills have proven for the vast majority of the season that they're the better team. They're more efficient, they score more points, Josh Allen is playing at a higher level than Patrick Mahomes, and the Bills already own a straight-up win over KC back in November. Buffalo just took care of business against perhaps the highest-ceiling team in the NFL last week. Everything in me wants to take the Bills to go into Arrowhead and avenge more than one crushing postseason loss.

But this is what the Chiefs do – at least this version of the Chiefs. No team has succeeded like Kansas City at dragging opponents into the mud and keeping them there. Kansas City did just that against Houston last week, putting up 212 total yards of offense and still winning by two scores. Prior to that game, teams that put up less than 285 yards of offense and did not force a turnover were 1-64 SU in playoff games in the Super Bowl era. Of course, it's the Chiefs who bucked that trend.

Now, obviously, the Bills are a much more dangerous opponent than Houston, but the Chiefs have a way of raising their game to match the situation – especially at home, and especially in the playoffs. If this game comes down to converting a key third down late in the fourth quarter – which feels inevitable – I'm not betting against Patrick Mahomes to get it done.

With a chance at a three-peat on the line, give me the Chiefs to win in yet another I don't really understand how they won that game, but they did situation.

The pick: Chiefs 26 – Bills 24