Beating the Book: Miami Handles Carolina, Eagles Avoid Letdown + Full NFL Week 6 ATS Picks

Welcome to the Week 6 edition of Beating the Book!

Suffice it to say that last week will not be going down in the annals of history for us. Not only did we struggle against the spread, but we mustered just a .500 record straight up. Embarrassing stuff. With that said, we've learned a few lessons. Among those:

The Patriots might be cooked.

The Bengals might be back.

The Packers might be bad.

And most importantly, never, ever take the favorite in a Ravens-Steelers matchup.

Looking ahead, we turn our attention to the Week 6 board. Only two teams are on bye this week, so we have 15 games on the slate. Broncos-Chiefs leads off the week on Thursday Night, with KC currently sitting as a 10.5-point home favorite. Miami (-13.5 vs. CAR) and Buffalo (-14.0 vs. NYG) are the other big favorites of the week, while the Eagles (-7.0 at NYJ) and Rams (-7.0 vs. ARZ) are also favored by a touchdown.

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 5-8-1 ATS; 7-7 SU; best bet lost

On the season: 34-41-3 ATS, 45-33 SU; 3-2 best bet

Best calls of Week 5:

• My money is on the Eagles to win the line of scrimmage and put up points against a talent-deprived defense. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford will make it uncomfortable, but we're taking Philly to win and cover.
• So long as Wilson doesn't go out of his way to lose the game for New York, the Jets can ride Breece Hall and the ground game to an outright win.

Worst calls of Week 5:

• If Jacksonville can commit to running the ball instead of asking Trevor Lawrence to throw 500 2-yard passes, this should be interesting. But I'm counting on the Buffalo defense to overwhelm the Jags' offensive line and produce a comfortable victory.
• This feels like a three-point game either way, but I'll roll with the Packers to control the ball and avoid major mistakes against a Raiders' defense that doesn't create turnovers.

Use the DraftKings Sportsbook Bonus Code for a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

Thursday Night Football

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)

Every week, the Chiefs' offense feels like it's leaving some points on the table, but it's tough to quibble with the results. Keep in mind that Kansas City was a 7-10 ATS team a season ago. So while betting against Patrick Mahomes will always feel like a dicey proposition, the Chiefs aren't necessarily blowing teams out of the water like San Francisco.

That reality is reflected in the number, which feels like it could be a point or two higher. But this is a divisional game, and Denver hung around with Kansas City in both matchups last season, losing by a combined nine points. Still, Denver is coming off of a crushing loss to a bad Jets offense, so this is a tough spot to ask for a rebound. It's also worth noting that Denver still has the worst defense through five weeks in the history of DVOA. That is a problem, even with Travis Kelce potentially missing this game.

We're approaching this one with more caution than we'd like, but I lean toward the Chiefs to win their 16th game straight up against Denver. The O47.5 may be the best play, as Denver has gone over in nine of its last 10.

The pick: Chiefs 30 – Broncos 17

💂Sunday London Game💂

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+4.5)

The Jaguars finished off their residency in London last week, so in step the Ravens and Titans to fill the void. Both teams are coming off of letdowns in Week 5, with Baltimore, in particular, kicking itself for essentially handing a game to the Steelers. Had it not been for seven (7) drops – many charted it closer to 10 – Baltimore probably wins and covers relatively comfortably.

Meanwhile, the Titans continue to Jekyll and Hyde their way through the season. Derrick Henry and the ground game finally got going in Week 4, but the offense came crashing back down last week against the Colts.

Neither team is inspiring much confidence right now, but chances are the Ravens will make a point to catch footballs this week. We'll roll with the Ravens to win the game, but Tennessee should be able to muck things up and keep it close.

Note: This is another appealing under, even at 41.0. The Ravens have gone under in 15 of their last 19 games, Tennessee has gone under in nine of its last 10 and both teams have finished under 40.0 in seven of 10 combined games thus far.

The pick: Ravens 21 – Titans 17

Sunday Early Games

Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

Tough game down in Atlanta where the Falcons are only getting the standard 2.5 at home. Desmond Ridder is coming off of perhaps the best game of his career – and he remains undefeated at home in college and the NFL – but we'll need to see more of those performances before we fully buy in.

On the other side, Washington is coming off of an abject disaster in Chicago on Thursday night. The defense continues to underwhelm, and the lack of a running game – against the Bears of all teams – is a concern. While Atlanta is not a great defense, it's a much improved defense that has fared well against the run this season. Falcons once again control the clock and win a close game at home.

The pick: Falcons 24 – Commanders 21

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+2.5)

With the Bears' offense (seemingly) picking up steam in the last two weeks, this is suddenly an intriguing road matchup for Minnesota, which will be without Justin Jefferson. While it's a good time to be a Jordan Addison fantasy manager, the absence of the best receiver in football is almost an unquantifiable factor for the Vikings' offense.

Defensively, Minnesota will have its work cut out for it. The Vikings lead the NFL in blitz rate (56.2%), yet they're generating pressure on only 21.4 percent of dropbacks – well below league average. If Justin Fields can continue to build momentum, this could be a very dangerous spot for a Vikings team teetering on the edge of disaster.

The O44.5 is my favorite play here, but we'll cautiously back Minnesota to force a turnover or two and hang on to win by a field goal.

The pick: Vikings 27 – Bears 24

Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0)

Are the Bengals back? That's perhaps the biggest question of the week heading into this matchup against a Seahawks team coming off of a bye. Cincinnati's passing game woke up last week, racking up 300+ passing yards and three touchdowns against the Cardinals, who've hung tough with every opponent thus far.

We've seen this from the Bengals before. After a slow start last season, Cincinnati settled in and ripped off 14 wins in its next 16 games. But that was a different defense and a Bengals offense that was getting peak production out of Tee Higgins. As of publication, it's unclear if Higgins will return this week from a broken rib, but with a bye looming in Week 7, it's possible the Bengals play it safe and hold him out.

We'll side with the home team here, but without definitive proof that the Bengals are, indeed, back, we like Seattle to keep it close, rip off some big plays on the ground, and cover the narrow spread.

The pick: Bengals 31 – Seahawks 30

San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (-7.0)

This number has soared all the way up to 7.0 after opening at 3.0 on Sunday night. Other than the 49ers once again confirming their Certified Wagon™ status against Dallas, the major factor is the status of Deshaun Watson, who did not practice Wednesday and is considered day-to-day. If Watson plays and looks like himself, the Browns should have a good chance to ride their defense and hang around. If not, it'll be the PJ Walker show, and… with all due respect to PJ, that could get ugly.

At some point, the 49ers probably get tripped up, but they're so deep with elite weapons on both sides that it's tough to pinpoint when that will happen. Even coming off of an emotional blowout, and with the Browns off a bye, I can't shy away from the Niners here.

The pick: 49ers 27 – Browns 17

New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans (+1.0)

I think we may have our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. I can tell you right now that Houston is going to be a thorn in our side all season, and I don't want any part of this game.

Despite falling to Atlanta on a last-second field goal last week, Houston acquitted itself fairly well despite losing the time of possession battle 35:32 to 24:28. The Texans held Atlatna under 100 yards rushing and followed the let Desmond Ridder beat us blueprint to a tee. The only issue was Ridder did beat them, throwing for 351 yards and, more importantly, not throwing any picks.

The Saints are coming in hot after dominating the Pats in Foxboro. I'm not ready to remotely buy in on the New Orleans offense, but the defense has proven to be one of the five best in the league.

We'll take the Saints to win on the road and also do the unthinkable: pick off C.J. Stroud for the first time in his NFL career.

The pick: Saints 23 – Texans 20

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.0)

After going 2-0 in London, the Jags are finally back stateside, but they did not opt to take a bye – somewhat of a curious decision, especially considering they play on Thursday Night in Week 7. Either way, they'll have their work cut out for them in what will undoubtedly be an emotional afternoon as Gardner Minshew makes his return to Jacksonville.

As a card-carrying Jags fan, I will say this: I would rather face Anthony Richardson than Minshew. The Jags already have a win over the Richardson-led Colts in Week 1, but Indy has since beaten the Texans, Ravens and Titans in three of its last four games. 

While the Jacksonville offense felt like it turned a corner against Buffalo, this is an obvious trap spot against a defense that held its opponents to 20 or fewer points in all three of the aforementioned victories.

I know I took the Jags in our weekly Staff Picks piece, but with another day to think on it, I'm reversing course. Ever so carefully, we'll trust the Jags' running game to travel back to the United States, but with this number sitting at 4.0 I like Indy to conjure up some Minshew Magic and cover.

The pick: Jaguars 27 – Colts 24

Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (-13.5)

Miami is not on the same level as San Francisco, but it does feel like things can go awry for the Dolphins offense and they'll still cruise to 30-plus points. That was the case last week against the Giants, as Tua Tagovailoa threw two crushing picks – including a 102-yard pick-six – and Miami also lost a fumble but still won and covered comfortably.

Despite getting blown out by Detroit last week, the Panthers demonstrated some level of friskiness in the second half, but I expect Tua and the Dolphins to get back on track against a defense that allowed 37 points to Seattle and 42 to Detroit. The loss of De'Von Achane hurts, but Miami has more than enough speed and RB depth to cruise here.

The pick: Dolphins 40 – Panthers 20

Sunday Afternoon Games

New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-3.0)

I really don't have much to say here. The Pats have completely bottomed out, and while the Raiders are typically an opponent you want to see on the schedule, I'm not sure what we've witnessed from Mac Jones and Co. is salvageable. I don't feel good about this number by any means, but I'll take the home team. The under 41.5 is the real play.

The pick: Raiders 17 – Patriots 13

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.0)

This is a big-time trap spot for the Lions coming off of a blowout win over Carolina. Meanwhile, the Bucs are off of a bye and looking to move to what would be a surprising 4-1 start. In the past, this is a game that Detroit would absolutely lose. But I'm (very reluctantly) starting to buy in on this Loons team, which clearly views itself as an NFC contender.

Assuming Amon-Ra St. Brown is back in the mix (he was limited at practice Wednesday), I think Detroit continues to stay hot, bludgeon Tampa Bay with David Montgomery and avoid a slip-up. Since falling to Seattle in OT in Week 2, Detroit has outscored its opponents 96 to 50 while committing only two turnovers.

The pick: Lions 28 – Buccaneers 24

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-7.0)

With this number sitting right at 7.0, this is among the trickier games of the week. Even in a loss last week, the Cardinals had their chances to strike against Cincinnati. Had it not been for a horrendous pick-six before halftime, things could've played out much differently.

Either way, the Cardinals have proven to be a much more formidable opponent than expected week in and week out. They'll be without James Conner, however, which is a fairly meaningful absence, even if Emari Demercado looked solid in relief against Cincy.

The Rams ran into an elite opponent in the Eagles last week, but for the most part I liked what I saw out of the Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua tandem. The Rams still can't really run the ball, but I'm not sure that will matter against one of the NFL's worst pass defenses. Arizona also ranks 31st in the league in pressure rate and 28th in air yards given up.

The pick: Rams 30 – Cardinals 21

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (+7.0)

Another tough spot with the number holding at the key number of 7.0. The Jets are also back home, where they battled back and put up a valiant fight against the Chiefs two weeks ago. Similar to the Detroit-Tampa Bay game, this is an obvious letdown spot for the undefeated Eagles – especially with a matchup against Miami looming in Week 7.

I don't see the Eagles losing this game straight up, but to me it will come down to how much success the Jets can find on the ground. Zach Wilson has been marginally better the last two weeks. That can get you a win over the worst defense in recent history, but the Jets will need more than that against Philly.

We're treading lightly here, but we'll go against the grain and trust the Eagles defense to exert their will on a banged-up Jets offensive line. Philly wins, covers and sends fans in New York back to working on Kirk Cousins trades.

The pick: Eagles 26 – Jets 16

Sunday Night Football

New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-14.0)

Yet another game sitting at a key number, it's reasonable to think the Giants can finally get their act together and catch the banged-up Bills at a good time coming back from London. The losses of Tre'Davious White and Matt Milano cannot be overstated, and Buffalo clearly felt those absences against Jacksonville.

With that said, the Giants are the NFL's punching bag right now and exactly the opponent the Bills should want to face – at home, no less – in this spot. New York's offensive line is in shambles, Daniel Jones is a mess, and it's unclear if Saquon Barkley or Darren Waller will be available on Sunday night. Waller's outlook seems more positive at this point, but if Barkely can't go it's tough to envision the Giants keeping up with Buffalo, barring a Josh Allen disaster game.

The pick: Bills 33 – Giants 17

Monday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers (+2.0)

Even after getting shellacked by the 49ers on a national stage last week, the Cowboys are giving 2.0 points to the post-bye Chargers. LA should get Austin Ekeler back, which is massive, but Justin Herbert will likely still be feeling the effects of the finger injury he sustained at the end of the Raiders game in Week 4.

Dallas has some work to do to earn back the trust of bettors, but I like the Cowboys to show up angry and get after Herbert. This should also be a good opportunity for the Cowboys' running game to get back on track. Through four games, the Chargers grade out as a bottom-five run defense, per PFF.

The pick: Cowboys 34 – Chargers 31