Beating the Book: Handicapping Week 2

Week 1 was okay for me - just 7-8-1 overall, but I won my best bet (Bengals) and went 4-1 in the Supercontest (wins: Bengals, Ravens, Panthers, Chiefs; loss: Saints.) I can't get too worried about the coin-flip games, though I do have to keep picking them.

Once again, I set my own lines ahead of time this week, and hewed to my initial inclinations, except for one or two.

Teams I like best are the Bengals, Steelers, Jaguars and Giants. As usual, I'll add the Supercontest picks in the comments.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Ravens -1 at Bengals

I know the Ravens crushed the Bills, but this is an easy call for me, as I think these are roughly equal teams, and the Bengals are getting a point at home. Take Cincinnati.

Bengals 20 - 16

EARLY GAMES

Colts +5.5 at Redskins

I made this line 4.5, so I guess I'm on the Colts, even though excluding the QBs, the Redskins have a far better team, and Alex Smith isn't bad, either. The Colts are better coached than in recent years, and I expect them to be competitive. Take the points.

Redskins 27 - 23

Panthers + 5.5 at Falcons

These are two of the more banged-up teams with the Falcons losing two key defensive starters (Keanu Neal and Deion Jones) and the Panthers losing Greg Olsen, having Luke Kuechly questionable and already with injuries to the offensive line. In the end, this line strikes me as a little steep between two roughly equal teams. Take the points.

Falcons 23 - 20

Vikings pick 'em at Packers

Aaron Rodgers is getting his knee tested. He looked great in the second half against the Bears, but any uncertainty or risk of re-injury moves the needle for me. Take the Vikings who might cover even if Rodgers were 100 percent.

Vikings 24 - 23

Chargers -7.5 at Bills

This is a massive line on the road, but it's exactly where I'd set it, making this game a coin flip for me. I suppose the smarter side is the home dog, who just got embarrassed last week, but the Chargers should have their way on both sides of the ball. Tough call, but lay the wood.

Chargers 24 - 13

Texans -2.5 at Titans*

Marcus Mariota is being evaluated for an elbow injury, so we have to treat this as if there were roughly a 50 percent chance Blaine Gabbert will start. Aside from the QBs, these are roughly equal teams, so the question is whether Deshaun Watson is worth 5.5 points (the line plus the venue) more than 50 percent Gabbert/50 percent Mariota on a neutral field. My answer is maybe. Total coin flip, but I'll take the home dog.

Texans 20 - 19

* line from here, not on our standard source due to Mariota uncertainty.

Chiefs +5 at Steelers

I set this line at 5.5, so I should be taking the Chiefs, but the Steelers are tougher at home, Andy Reid doesn't have the extra prep time this week, and Pittsburgh should run roughshod over the Chiefs' weak defense. Lay the wood.

Steelers 30 - 23

Dolphins +3 at Jets

I was less impressed by Sam Darnold than some, but the Jets are at least equal to the Dolphins on both sides of the ball, so I'm laying the wood at home. Take New York.

Jets 24 - 20

Eagles -3 at Buccaneers

I made this exact line, so another coin flip here. I suppose I'll take the Eagles who had some extra rest, and whose defense should put up quite a bit more resistance than the Saints did last week. Lay the road wood.

Eagles 27 - 17

Browns +9 at Saints

I made this 7.5, so I guess I'm on the Browns. I could see a Saints bounceback and blowout, but I'd like to see their defense show up first. Take the points.

Saints 31 - 23

LATE GAMES

Cardinals +12.5 at Rams

I made this 10.5, but the line moved up after the Rams dismantled the Raiders in the second half Monday night. The Cardinals looked terrible at home last week, and a road game in LA is no place to get it together. I want to take the points, but Sean McVay keeps his foot on the gas like Bill Belichick. Lay the wood.

Rams 35 - 17

Lions +5.5 at 49ers

I made this 4.5, and I'll stand by that. The Lions looked awful, but apparently Matthew Stafford was tipping his pitches, so to speak, and I assume they'll get that fixed. The 49ers should bounce back at home, but the Lions keep it close. Take the points.

49ers 27 - 23

Patriots -2 at Jaguars

I made this game a pick 'em, as the Jaguars are a nasty team that probably should have beaten the Patriots in Foxborough last year had Doug Marrone not gone into a shell. Take the home dog.

Jaguars 20 - 19

Raiders +5.5 at Broncos

I set this line at six, but it's only 5.5, so I should narrowly be on the Broncos. I think the Jon Gruden-hate from the analytics community is moronic, though, and I like that they brought back Martavis Bryant. I'll take the points.

Raiders 23 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Giants 3 at Cowboys

The biggest concern for the Giants is their offensive line which got overwhelmed by the Jaguars, and though the Cowboys aren't at that level, they can get after an immobile and error-prone Eli Manning. Still, the Cowboys offense is so vanilla, and their secondary beatable, so I'm taking the points.

Giants 27 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Seahawks +3 at Bears

I like the Bears defense, but Mitch Trubisky looked bad against the Packers, and Matt Nagy gifted the game away when he kicked a field goal to go up six rather than simply going for the win on a 4th-and-1 from the Packers 14 with less than three minutes left. I made this line three, so it's a coin flip, but I'll take the Seahawks out of spite.

Seahawks 24 - 23

Last week, I went 7-8-1 overall, won my best bet, the Bengals, and went 4-1 in the Supercontest. Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.