This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 3-1 last week, losing only with my best bet, the Jaguars. This week, the only game on which I feel even moderately set is the Jaguars-Steelers - the line strikes me as too big given Jacksonville's defense. The other three are merely the slightest of leans, and the Saints-Vikings is an outright coin flip for me. And while typically, I like to take favorites in this round, I'm on three dogs.
SATURDAY GAMES
Falcons -3 at Eagles
The Eagles are probably the sharp play here now that the line has gone all the way to three. It's a home dog with a good defense getting the full field goal after the bye. But the Falcons refuse to die despite arguably the worst loss of any team in NFL history last year, and I don't think the Nick Foles Eagles stop them. Lay the wood.
Falcons 23 - 17
Titans +13.5 at Patriots
The Titans are the type of team you fade in this round because they're not even supposed to be here, and now they're in way over their heads. But the Patriots haven't impressed me of late, and their defense is merely so-so. Moreover, Marcus Mariota - after a dismal stretch - seems to have regained his confidence, and you can see glimpses of the player we thought he'd be. Take the points.
Patriots 27 - 20
SUNDAY GAMES
Jaguars +7.5 at Steelers
It's hard to get the first meeting between the two - where the Jaguars
I went 3-1 last week, losing only with my best bet, the Jaguars. This week, the only game on which I feel even moderately set is the Jaguars-Steelers - the line strikes me as too big given Jacksonville's defense. The other three are merely the slightest of leans, and the Saints-Vikings is an outright coin flip for me. And while typically, I like to take favorites in this round, I'm on three dogs.
SATURDAY GAMES
Falcons -3 at Eagles
The Eagles are probably the sharp play here now that the line has gone all the way to three. It's a home dog with a good defense getting the full field goal after the bye. But the Falcons refuse to die despite arguably the worst loss of any team in NFL history last year, and I don't think the Nick Foles Eagles stop them. Lay the wood.
Falcons 23 - 17
Titans +13.5 at Patriots
The Titans are the type of team you fade in this round because they're not even supposed to be here, and now they're in way over their heads. But the Patriots haven't impressed me of late, and their defense is merely so-so. Moreover, Marcus Mariota - after a dismal stretch - seems to have regained his confidence, and you can see glimpses of the player we thought he'd be. Take the points.
Patriots 27 - 20
SUNDAY GAMES
Jaguars +7.5 at Steelers
It's hard to get the first meeting between the two - where the Jaguars dominated in Pittsburgh - out of my head. Blake Bortles simply couldn't throw the ball at all last week, but he's had decent stretches this year, and the Steelers' pass defense has been beatable of late. Give me the points here.
Jaguars 20 - 19
Saints +4 at Vikings
This is probably the right line as these are even teams, but the Vikings are at home and coming off a bye. I'm rooting for the Saints because I think they're the more exciting team, and I have shares in a playoff pool, but I can't say they're the right side. Total coin flip, but I'll take the Saints.
Vikings 24 - 23
I went 3-1 against the spread in the Wild Card Round. I was 117-125-14 on the season and 43-39-3 in the SuperContest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.
