Beating The Book

I went 7-5-1 last week, won my best bet (Dolphins) and went 4-1 in the SuperContest. Overall, it could have been better, but I'll take it. 

This week, I especially like the Dolphins, Colts, Patriots and Saints. 

THURSDAY NIGHT

Packers +6.5 at Cardinals

With the Packers likely down Davante Adams and Allen Lazard, this line jumped to 6.5. I don't have a strong feeling here, but I'll lay the wood. 

Cardinals 27 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Dolphins +13.5 at Bills

The Dolphins are bad, and the Bills coming off a bye, but this is too many points in a divisional game. Take the Dolphins. 

Bills 31 - 20

Panthers +3 at Falcons

Sam Darnold is bad, and the Falcons have unlocked Kyle Pitts finally, but I'll go contrarian here and take the team with the better defense. Give me the points. 

Panthers 20 - 19

Eagles -3.5 at Lions

The Lions might be 0-7, but it's a strong 0-7! Give me the dysfunctional Eagles who can't overlook anyone at this point. 

Eagles 27 - 23

Titans -1 at Colts

I like both these teams, but I'll fade the Titans off massive home wins against the Bills and Chiefs. The Colts need this game to stay competitive in the AFC South, and Carson Wentz seems to have turned a corner. Take the home dog. 

Colts 24 - 23

Rams -14.5 at Texans

I hate these huge lines. The Texans are terrible, but there's a chance Tyrod Taylor will play, and that's good enough for me. Take the points. 

Rams 26 - 16

Bengals -10 at Jets

The Bengals should be a fade off that big win over the Ravens, but the Joe Flacco/Mike White Jets are a tough sell even as 10-point home dogs. Think I have to lay the wood. 

Bengals 31 - 17

Steelers +3.5 at Browns

The Steelers offense is bad, but the defense is sound, and the Browns are still iffy at quarterback and receiver health-wise. Give me the points. 

Steelers 17 - 16

49ers -3.5 at Bears

Two reeling teams, both of which are buy-lows. Give me the Bears at home in this case getting more than a field goal. 

49ers 16 - 13

LATE GAMES

Jaguars +3 at Seahawks

I'd like to fade both of these teams, to be honest. The Geno Smith Seahawks as favorites and the Gigachad Urban Meyer Jaguars off their first win. I made this line 5.5, so I guess I'm on the Seahawks, but I don't like it. 

Seahawks 23 - 17

Buccaneers -5 at Saints

The Bucs crush teams that can't pass protect, but the Saints have a good offensive line, and a defense that can hang. Take the points. 

Buccaneers 26 - 23

Patriots +5.5 at Chargers

The Chargers are the better team, but the Patriots always seem to get better as the year goes on, and Mac Jones is the only rookie quarterback playing at a decent level. Take the points. 

Chargers 24 - 20

Team +3 at Broncos

The Team had its chances last week, but couldn't get it done in the red zone. I'll go back to the well and take the points against a shaky Broncos team. 

Team 20 - 19

SUNDAY NIGHT

Cowboys -2.5 at Vikings

The Cowboys cover every week, but give me the Vikings, who should hang with them, as home dogs. 

Vikings 27 - 26

MONDAY NIGHT

Giants +10 at Chiefs

The Giants are not a total doormat, and the Chiefs seem very much to have the Super Bowl loser's hangover this year. I expect Patrick Mahomes to bounce back, but if one or two of Saquon Barkley, Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shepard or Kenny Golladay can play, I expect the Giants to compete. Take the points. 

Chiefs 31 - 24

Last week, I went into 7-5-1 ATS to go to 50-54-3 on the year, won my best bet (Dolphins) to go to 7-0, and went 4-1 in the SuperContest to go 18-16-1.  Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.