This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a top running back after Christian McCaffrey is off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Breece Hall, Jets
Upside
Breece Hall has been a fantasy star in different ways. In 2022, the running back rushed for 5.8 yards per carry before suffering an ACL injury. In his return in 2023, he excelled as a receiver, as the Jets facing stacked boxes with a terrible offensive line. In the last 12 games, Hall had eight games with at least five receptions, seven games with at least 40 receiving yards and caught five touchdown passes. Now that the Jets added four offensive linemen this offseason while Aaron Rodgers recovered from an Achilles injury, the Jets could have a strong offense. Knowing that Hall is both elite as a runner and receiver, his upside could be 2,000 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns. It is not outrageous to see a world in which
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a top running back after Christian McCaffrey is off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Breece Hall, Jets
Upside
Breece Hall has been a fantasy star in different ways. In 2022, the running back rushed for 5.8 yards per carry before suffering an ACL injury. In his return in 2023, he excelled as a receiver, as the Jets facing stacked boxes with a terrible offensive line. In the last 12 games, Hall had eight games with at least five receptions, seven games with at least 40 receiving yards and caught five touchdown passes. Now that the Jets added four offensive linemen this offseason while Aaron Rodgers recovered from an Achilles injury, the Jets could have a strong offense. Knowing that Hall is both elite as a runner and receiver, his upside could be 2,000 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns. It is not outrageous to see a world in which Hall is the overall RB1.
Downside
It is difficult to see Hall struggling as a runner. It's also unlikely that he won't see heavy volume. However, two things could lead to a downside season for the running back. It's possible that wide receivers Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams and Malachi Corley play very well. Should that happen Rodgers won't lean on Hall as a receiver as much as Jets QBs did last year. Another issue is the team drafted running back Braelon Allen in the fourth round of this year's draft. Should the Jets' coaching staff choose to keep Hall fresh, it could give Allen about 10 touches per game. In either of those scenarios, Hall could top out at 1,500 scrimmage yards.
The Bottom Line
Hall is often drafted as the second RB in fantasy drafts. There is little doubt that he is worth the pick. In a worst-case scenario, it's difficult to project him finishing outside the top 5 at his position. It is reasonable to expect him to give Christian McCaffrey a run for the top spot.
Bijan Robinson, Falcons
Upside
Last year, many fantasy footballers thought coach Arthur Smith was the best thing that could have happened for Bijan Robinson. That didn't work out. The main reason he fell short of expectations was a lack of rushing attempts — just 214, 19th in the league. Also, Smith had no answer for defenses that learned how to defend the run with light boxes. With Smith fired, in comes offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, the former Rams quarterback coach. If Robinson brings in the run game the Rams used last year, Bijan will have a massive season. Last year, Los Angeles used a downhill rushing attack that put defenses at a disadvantage. The team also weaponized running backs as pass catchers. After Robinson had an 86th percentile broken tackle rate and surpassed the 72nd percentile in yards after contact and yards after the catch, his elite skills could turn into massive production. Another point is that those Rams offenses frequently leaned heavily on their lead back, so Robinson could see heavy volume. And with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, teams are unlikely to stack the box. If this all works out, Robinson can flirt with 2,000 scrimmage yards and double-digit touchdowns.
Downside
The downside case has nothing to do with talent. The first concern is that the new offensive coordinator doesn't put together a successful run scheme. There's no guarantee Zac Robinson uses the same run-game system the Rams used. If the Falcons keep running a large dose of zone runs, the same issues from last year may emerge when defenses slowed them. The other issue is if the coaching staff chooses to keep Robinson fresh by giving Tyler Allgeier 11 carries per game like last year. Those scenarios could lead to the second-year player struggling to reach 1,500 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns.
The Bottom Line
It's always tricky to predict how an offense will run with a new coach. It is fun to predict the best-case scenario. Often, that is not the reality. Still, the floor for Robinson is likely high enough that he will not finish outside of the top-6 RBs. That floor makes it reasonable for those betting on the potential upside to select the Atlanta running back in the middle of the first round.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
Upside
Jahmyr Gibbs had an outstanding 5.2 yards per carry as a rookie. However, he had just 182 carries in 15 games. The good news is that from Week 10 on, Gibbs took over the snap share lead in the backfield from David Montgomery. However, Montgomery handled 219 rushes in 14 games. For Gibbs to realize his upside, he needs closer to 230 attempts. GM Brad Holmes said Gibbs is expected to a bigger workload than last year. Gibbs also needs more receiving yards. Despite seeing a solid 71 targets, the averaged an unimpressive 6.1 yards per catch. The coaching staff needs to find a way to scheme Gibbs into space on passing plays, so he can take advantage of his electrifying speed. If both of these areas are addressed, an 1,800-yard season is firmly on the table.
Downside
Even though Gibbs had 10 rushing touchdowns last year, Montgomery had 13. If the Lions determine it's best to keep Gibbs from taking big hits near the goal line, it's possible he doesn't match last year's touchdown numbers. Also, if the Lions are improved on defense this year, there might be many games in which they're in clock-killing mode. If that happens, Montgomery is more likely to take on those meaningless carries. Finally, it's possible the Lions do not have an answer for optimizing Gibbs to gain maximum yards after the catch. Last year's unimpressive yards per catch could limit his targets this season. In terms of downside, if Gibbs doesn't see a significant increase in touches, he could post fewer than 1,400 scrimmage yards.
The Bottom Line
Gibbs could turn into a megastar this season. Although that may happen, the presence of Montgomery is an issue. It seems improbable that the running back can match the fantasy points that Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson are likely to score. If drafting Gibbs as the third player in this group, he should provide fantasy managers excellent value.
The Final Word
The player with the fewest questions in this group is Hall. As good as he's been through two seasons, his offensive line and QB position project to be vastly improved. That should give Hall the best floor/ceiling combination among these players. Robinson seems to be the second choice. The expected work as a runner and receiver give him a sky-high floor. Making Gibbs the third in this group makes sense. Too many narratives need to be connected to put Gibbs in the same class as Hall and Robinson.
